The College Football Thread 11/1 - 11/4

[iggymcfly 0]

BTW, here are my BCS projections with only 3 weeks left in the regular season (4 if you count conference championship week):

 

BCS Championship: LSU (12-1) vs. Oregon (11-1)

Rose Bowl: Michigan (10-2) vs. USC (10-2)

Orange Bowl: Clemson (10-3) vs. Ohio State (11-1)

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma (12-1) vs. Florida (9-3)

Sugar Bowl: West Virginia (11-1) vs. Boise State (11-1)

[Hogan Made Wrestling 0]

BTW, here are my BCS projections with only 3 weeks left in the regular season (4 if you count conference championship week):

 

BCS Championship: LSU (12-1) vs. Oregon (11-1)

Rose Bowl: Michigan (10-2) vs. USC (10-2)

Orange Bowl: Clemson (10-3) vs. Ohio State (11-1)

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma (12-1) vs. Florida (9-3)

Sugar Bowl: West Virginia (11-1) vs. Boise State (11-1)

 

Very possible scenario (and pretty much what I hope happens, i.e. the Ducks in the championship game), but doesn't the Big East champ (WVU) traditionally play in the Orange Bowl if not selected for the title game, or has that tie-in been dropped? Also, what's the selection order this year, because I imagine the Sugar Bowl would want Florida if they had the chance to pick them.

[Bored 0]

The Big East tie in with the Orange Bowl was indeed dropped as of last year (Louisville ended up there pretty much by default last season) so their champ can end up anywhere.

 

The selection order this year is Orange, Fiesta, Sugar. The Rose Bowl really doesn't count as if it loses the Big Ten and/or Pac-10 champ, which seems very likely they will lose one or both this year, they will get the 1st or 2nd pick.

[iggymcfly 0]

Yeah, under my projections the teams taken via conference tie-in are:

 

Rose: Michigan

Fiesta: Oklahoma

Orange: Clemson

 

Then, since the Sugar Bowl lost the #1 team in the BCS, they'd get first pick and I'm assuming would take #4 11-1 West Virginia over a 3-loss SEC team or an Ohio State team coming off a loss. They'd probably be closer to taking Ohio State than Florida, but I'm guessing they'd go with WVU since they travelled well for the Sugar Bowl before and OSU might not travel quite as well as they typically do after going to the championship the year before and narrowly missing out this year.

 

The Rose Bowl would pick next with the Pac-Ten champion playing in the BCS Title game and would likely take a 2-loss USC to preserve the traditional Pac-Ten/Big Ten matchup with no other real intriguing matchups on the horizon. Then, the Orange Bowl would scoop up 11-1 Ohio State next, leaving the Fiesta Bowl in a little bit of a pickle. They couldn't take a Big Ten or Pac-Ten team since those conferences would already have at-larges and they couldn't pick another Big XII team to play Oklahoma, so they'd be stuck picking between the SEC, the Big East, the ACC, and Boise State. Nobody would want to take a mid-major that just played in a BCS game last year since that's a nightmare from a "getting fans to travel" standpoint so it would be between the ACC, the Big East, and the SEC. With Florida likely the highest-ranked team remaining and also having a fanbase that would travel much better than BC or UConn, they'd likely get the nod.

 

Meanwhile, with only one spot left, the Sugar Bowl would be forced to take Boise State under the criteria that a champion of a non-BCS conference gets an automatic bid if they're in the Top 16 of the BCS standings and are ahead of a major-conference champion. Clemson's ranked behind Boise State in the BCS now, and I can't imagine that going 2-1 against BC, Wake and S. Carolina would be enough for them to jump ahead, especially with Boise getting a high-profile win over Hawaii. Also, Boise State's ranked #20 in the BCS this week, so passing say Hawaii, Virginia, Connecticut, and Auburn would be enough to get them in.

[mfn 0]

BTW, here are my BCS projections with only 3 weeks left in the regular season (4 if you count conference championship week):

 

BCS Championship: LSU (12-1) vs. Oregon (11-1)

Rose Bowl: Michigan (10-2) vs. USC (10-2)

Orange Bowl: Clemson (10-3) vs. Ohio State (11-1)

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma (12-1) vs. Florida (9-3)

Sugar Bowl: West Virginia (11-1) vs. Boise State (11-1)

 

Who do you have Ohio State losing to? Michigan?

 

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

Since he has Michigan winning the Big Ten at 10-2, it's clearly them.

[mfn 0]

Since he has Michigan winning the Big Ten at 10-2, it's clearly them.

I just don't see that happening at all. OSU will win out.

[CanadianChris 0]

Since he has Michigan winning the Big Ten at 10-2, it's clearly them.

I just don't see that happening at all. OSU will win out.

A lot will depend on the status of Chad Henne and Mike Hart. If they're ready to go, Michigan definitely has a shot, especially with the game being in Ann Arbor. If they're banged up, Ohio State rolls.

[Hogan Made Wrestling 0]

Yeah, under my projections the teams taken via conference tie-in are:

 

Rose: Michigan

Fiesta: Oklahoma

Orange: Clemson

 

Then, since the Sugar Bowl lost the #1 team in the BCS, they'd get first pick and I'm assuming would take #4 11-1 West Virginia over a 3-loss SEC team or an Ohio State team coming off a loss. They'd probably be closer to taking Ohio State than Florida, but I'm guessing they'd go with WVU since they travelled well for the Sugar Bowl before and OSU might not travel quite as well as they typically do after going to the championship the year before and narrowly missing out this year.

 

The Rose Bowl would pick next with the Pac-Ten champion playing in the BCS Title game and would likely take a 2-loss USC to preserve the traditional Pac-Ten/Big Ten matchup with no other real intriguing matchups on the horizon. Then, the Orange Bowl would scoop up 11-1 Ohio State next, leaving the Fiesta Bowl in a little bit of a pickle. They couldn't take a Big Ten or Pac-Ten team since those conferences would already have at-larges and they couldn't pick another Big XII team to play Oklahoma, so they'd be stuck picking between the SEC, the Big East, the ACC, and Boise State. Nobody would want to take a mid-major that just played in a BCS game last year since that's a nightmare from a "getting fans to travel" standpoint so it would be between the ACC, the Big East, and the SEC. With Florida likely the highest-ranked team remaining and also having a fanbase that would travel much better than BC or UConn, they'd likely get the nod.

 

Meanwhile, with only one spot left, the Sugar Bowl would be forced to take Boise State under the criteria that a champion of a non-BCS conference gets an automatic bid if they're in the Top 16 of the BCS standings and are ahead of a major-conference champion. Clemson's ranked behind Boise State in the BCS now, and I can't imagine that going 2-1 against BC, Wake and S. Carolina would be enough for them to jump ahead, especially with Boise getting a high-profile win over Hawaii. Also, Boise State's ranked #20 in the BCS this week, so passing say Hawaii, Virginia, Connecticut, and Auburn would be enough to get them in.

 

Can't disagree with much of that, although I wonder about the Fiesta Bowl picking Boise State to get a rematch of the Oklahoma-Boise State game from last year. It would probably get a good amount of media and fan interest. How did Boise State do last year in terms of bringing fans to the game? Even if they didn't do as well this year, I'm sure Oklahoma's fans would pick up some of the slack.

[teke184 0]

My understanding is that the BCS frowns on bowls doing re-matches of either games played earlier in the season OR of the prior year's bowl games.

 

Thus, Boise-Oklahoma would likely be frowned upon unless they were backed in a corner.

 

 

 

Boise is currently #20 in the BCS poll and has a loss to pitiful Washington.

 

A lot of things would need to break their way in order to get in the Top 12 (automatic bid) or Top 16 (conditional bid).

 

 

In order for the top 16 to automatically qualify them, there must be a BCS Conference champ with a ranking of 16 or higher.

 

The way things are looking right now, the only way I see that happening is if the ACC champ has lost several games late OR Cincinnati beats UConn and West Virginia, then West Virginia beats UConn. (That would give Cincy the BCS bid over West Virginia and UConn via head-to-head victories over both.)

 

 

The Big 12, Pac Ten, Big Ten, and SEC champs will almost assuredly be within the Top 10 of the BCS.

 

(The only way any of those four leagues comes up short is if a 3-loss SEC East team beats LSU in the SEC Title Game and doesn't get a big boost in the final BCS rankings as a result.)

[mfn 0]

Since he has Michigan winning the Big Ten at 10-2, it's clearly them.

I just don't see that happening at all. OSU will win out.

A lot will depend on the status of Chad Henne and Mike Hart. If they're ready to go, Michigan definitely has a shot, especially with the game being in Ann Arbor. If they're banged up, Ohio State rolls.

I know a lot of it will depend on the health of Michigan, but honestly I think the only reason they even have a chance is because it's obviously the biggest rivalry in college football, and the fact that it's in Ann Arbor.

 

100% health or not, I just don't think that Michigan has the better football team.

 

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

I know you're an Ohio State guy, but that's kind of a silly thing to say, particularly in this season of all seasons. Upsets both major and minor happen every week. Overall, Michigan almost certainly doesn't have the better team than Ohio State in terms of statistics, balance, etc., but they only need to be better for about 3 hours on one Saturday afternoon to win that single game.

[iggymcfly 0]

Boise is currently #20 in the BCS poll and has a loss to pitiful Washington.

 

A lot of things would need to break their way in order to get in the Top 12 (automatic bid) or Top 16 (conditional bid).

 

 

In order for the top 16 to automatically qualify them, there must be a BCS Conference champ with a ranking of 16 or higher.

 

The way things are looking right now, the only way I see that happening is if the ACC champ has lost several games late OR Cincinnati beats UConn and West Virginia, then West Virginia beats UConn. (That would give Cincy the BCS bid over West Virginia and UConn via head-to-head victories over both.)

 

They're almost guaranteed to get in the Top 16 if they win out. There are still four weeks of teams potentially losing and they'll get a boost in the computers if they beat Hawaii. It's really not out of the question for them to make the Top 12 (although I doubt they will).

 

Looking at the ACC though, here's Clemson's remaining schedule:

vs. Wake Forest

vs. Boston College

at South Carolina

 

They'll be favored in both conference games at home, and they match up really well with BC in particular. BC has the best rushing defense in the nation, but is vulnerable through the air and Clemson has the best passing attack in the ACC. Clemson's also top 10 in the nation in passing efficiency defense which is another good matchup as BC is very stubborn about passing the ball and refuses to commit to the running game even when it's working. If they win those two, they're in, so I'd consider them the favorite to win the Atlantic division at this point.

 

South Carolina's not such a good matchup as their pass defense is their strength and the Cocks do have the game at home (even though I'm sure there will be a ton of Clemson fans in the stands). I'd have to consider South Carolina at least a slight favorite to beat Clemson, especially if they get re-motivated for the rivalry game after falling flat the last couple weeks. I think there's a great chance that Clemson ends up the ACC champion at 10-3, especially if they face Virginia in the title game. All the Cavs need to do to win their division is to beat Virginia Tech at home where they're 5-0 on the season. Also, even if Virginia Tech does end up winning the ACC, if they lose to either Florida State or Miami, they'd end up with 3 losses as well and would also likely finish behind Boise State. Either Virginia, Virginia Tech, or BC has to win out to keep Boise State out of a BCS bowl.