I caught a bit of the two NFL playoff games on Sunday. (Yeah, I can dabble in the NFL if need be.) Had a few thoughts to share.
-Playing professional sport games in sub-zero conditions is fairly stupid in its own right. Players in short-sleeves and fans in body paint is downright ridiculous. I live in the Poconos, a climate that can get fairly chilly in the winter. At a certain temperature, you can deal with the chill but you don't mess around with it. It's dangerous. I can't help but think it would make much more sense to make use of Miller Park, and I can hear the howls of protest already.
-On that note, building flashy new MLB stadiums was wasteful enough but NFL as well? The multi-use stadiums in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia were one thing. But before that, NFL teams frequently played in places like Shibe Park, Yankee Stadium and Wrigley Field.
-The New York Giants based on the statistics are probably the worst team to play in a Super Bowl. The other teams with 6+ losses to reach the Super Bowl are the '79 Rams and the '88 49ers. How do they stack up long term? Let's see their three and five-year records.
Three year record
Giants: 29-19
Rams: 31-15
49ers: 33-13-1
Five year record
Giants: 39-41
Rams: 53-20-1
49ers: 58-20-1
I think that's pretty convincing. The reason I go with multi-year records is that a 14-16 game sample is simply not large enough to draw any firm conclusions. A good team wins year after year.
-Are the Giants a better team than the Packers because they won? Not necessarily. If the game were 30 minutes instead of 60, the Packers would be in the Super Bowl. One game decided by a margin of a single score hardly proves a damn thing. Any player or team can have a bad day. Again, I preach long term samples. The more data you have, the better conclusions you draw.
-Looking for weaker championship teams, I came across the 1932 Bears. No, they were not a weak team. They won seven games and lost one. They tied the other six. In their first three games, NEITHER team scored! They lost their fourth game by two points, 2-0. Interestingly their championship game was not played in Wrigley Field due to adverse weather. It was moved indoors to Chicago Stadium, a smaller sporting arena. On an 80-yard field, the NFL more or less invented arena football on the fly.
-With a team seeking a perfect season, this year's Super Bowl will no doubt draw high ratings. I do not know yet if I will watch. As you all know, I am not an especially big NFL fan. The bigger problem is that the commercials have become too big for their own good. The more I think about it, I am going to take a four hour chunk so that I can watch scads of advertisements? Not happening. I'm visiting my lady friend that weekend, I find her company more enjoyable. Besides, assuming a local sports outlet airs the Caribbean World Series again, my sports needs are satiated.
Last year I ran a tournament of the greatest teams in MLB history. The '95 Cleveland Indians prevailed with a win in the finals over the '39 New York Yankees. I quite liked that tournament, and with the College World Series nearly upon us I'd like to try it again. The format is fairly simple. The 64 team field is divided into 16 four-team brackets. Each bracket is double-elimination. The 16 winners advance to Super Regionals, which are best-of-three affairs. The eight winners advance to the College World Series, but we'll have a different name for that.
I don't have the full brackets worked out, but here are the groupings I've worked out so far. We're taking the Regionals at face value this time, and trying to group teams mainly by geography.
BRONX Regional: '98 Yankees, '61 Yankees, '12 Giants, '54 Giants.
BROOKLYN Regional: '41 Dodgers, '55 Dodgers, '27 Yankees, '77 Yankees
QUEENS Regional: '69 Mets, '86 Mets, '39 Yankees, '53 Yankees
BOSTON Regional: '12 Red Sox, '46 Red Sox, '67 Red Sox, 2004 Red Sox
PHILADELPHIA Regional: '50 Phillies, '80 Phillies, '29 Athletics, '11 Athletics
CHICAGO Regional: '06 Cubs, '84 Cubs, '19 White Sox, 2005 White Sox
LOS ANGELES Regional: '63 Dodgers, '78 Dodgers, 2002 Angels, '98 Padres
OAKLAND Regional: '74 Athletics, '88 Athletics, 2002 Athletics, 2003 Giants
ST. LOUIS Regional: '34 Cardinals, '42 Cardinals, '67 Cardinals, '82 Cardinals
CLEVELAND Regional: '95 Indians, '54 Indians, '75 Reds, '40 Reds
PITTSBURGH Regional: '09 Pirates, '79 Pirates, '70 Orioles, '24 Senators
DETROIT Regional: '68 Tigers, '84 Tigers, '92 Blue Jays, '94 Expos
KANSAS CITY Regional: '85 Royals, 2001 Mariners, '82 Brewers, '65 Twins
ATLANTA Regional: '98 Braves, '57 Braves, '48 Braves, '14 Braves
HOUSTON Regional: '98 Astros, '99 Rangers, 01 Diamondbacks, '95 Rockies
MIAMI Regional: '97 Marlins, '04 Devil Rays, '32 Yankees, 2004 Cardinals
Any suggestions/comments?
Tony Gwynn- Since World War II, only Ted Williams hit for a higher batting average than Tony Gwynn. Gwynn hit .338 over his career, and .368 over a five year stretch from 1993-97. Eight batting titles makes Gwynn as sure a candidate as anyone in the history of the balloting.
Cal Ripken- What surprised me in looking up the statistics is that Cal doesn't appear on many lists of shortstops in terms of percentages. His case is based largely on longevity. Nothing wrong with that, as Cal's peak was plenty good too. Ripken won two MVPs and hit more home runs than any shortstop in history.
Mark McGwire- We all know McGwire's candidacy comes down to a moral choice and there's really no arguing that. This is where I stand and I respect where you stand for the time being. What I would address is the notion that McGwire was a undeserving player except for his late home run surge. McGwire was the percentage leader amongst first basemen in home runs prior to 1998. He ranked eighth in OPS, Offensive Winning Percentage and Runs Created per game, and second in Secondary Average. McGwire walked nearly as often as he struck out. Yes, he probably used steroids, but he was a Hall caliber player before 1998.
Bert Blyleven- The sabermetric darling of the Hall ballot. I think Blyleven's big problem is that he had his great seasons early and then stayed around as an above-average pitcher for a long time. I'm not going to slog through the stats because the arguments have been presented before. Let me just state that if Blyleven had 13 more wins, this wouldn't even be discussed.
Alan Trammell- Trammell and Ripken were roughly contemporaries. Ripken outslugged Trammell .447 to .415. Trammell had a higher career OBP however, .352 to .340. Ripken's career ERA+ was 112, Trammell's was 110. Now, remember that Trammell stole 236 bases to Ripken's 36, largely offsetting the edge in extra bases. Trammell had a better range factor at shortstop and won more gold gloves. Ripken lasted two years longer than Trammell. Ripken's considered an automatic inductee, while Trammell fell below 20% of the vote. Now ask yourself, was Cal Ripken really THAT much better of a player than Alan Trammell?
Andre Dawson- Poor OBP be damned. Dawson hit 438 home runs, stole 314 bases and was a GOLD GLOVE center fielder in his prime.
Goose Gossage- If you are going to elect relievers, you need to elect the Goose. Now that a standard is established thanks to Bruce Sutter, I think Gossage will earn induction (but not until next year).
Another year of baseball is finally here. Who cares if it is too cold to reasonably enjoy the game?
April 1, Lehigh Valley @ Reading (exhibition)
A cold front threatened this game. While every place in eastern PA got drenched, the rain somehow avoided Reading entirely. We were treated to a 66 degree gametime temperature, fantastic conditions. This game pit the Phillies' top two minor league affiliates against each other to benefit Baseballtown charities. I can not stress enough how terrific a place First Energy Stadium is. The staff puts together a tremendous gameday experience, prices are good, concessions are reasonable. Plus, you can see Jason Donald take a wizz in the dugout!
Lehigh Valley won 6-2.
April 3-5, Lehigh Valley @ Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
The first official games for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs. Less said about the games, the better. As much as Reading puts into their gameday experience, Scranton does the opposite. No promotions, no excitement, barely any information for the fans. And that nice weather? Gone. Saturday was particularly fun. Afternoon game, bound to be a bit warm, right? 41 f'n degrees. And my dumb ass brought a short sleeve shirt. Put on a brave face though. Considered a sweater at the gift shop, but if someone bet me I couldn't make it through the game for $38, I'd take the bet.
Next week: Three games at Scranton, against the Louisville Bats.
You want boring baseball? Come see the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees. The Yankees as a successful organization preach plate discipline throughout their system. Last night some poor defense led to a five-run third inning from the Richmond Braves, and the Braves added two more in the fourth. With the game effectively out of reach at this point, you hope to see the teams play to the end in a crisp manner. To say these teams limped to the finish line is an understatement. To give you an idea of the fashion of the game, the Yankees batted 42 times and just eight of them swung at the first pitch. When it is in the neighborhood of 35-40 degrees out, you have little patience for wasted time.
Phil Hughes tonight.
My mission this season is to watch five different Phillies teams. Within range are the major league Phillies, the Reading Phillies (AA), the Lakewood Blueclaws (Low A) and the Williamsport Crosscutters (Short Season A). The AAA Phillies play in Ottawa, but they'll play road games in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Lakewood is 2 1/2 hours away, but a free day and the promise of a 70 degree, sunny day near the shore provided more than enough temptation to make the drive.
FirstEnergy Park in Lakewood is easily the nicest minor league park I have ever seen. The main seating area is spacious, plenty of seat and leg room. The concourse is entirely open with a full view of the park from concession areas. Prices are reasonable. Reserved Seats are $9, parking is $3 and concessions are not tremendously overpriced. The same owner is building the park for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, and the design for that stadium looks similar. As if a baseball team wasn't incentive enough, the new park is absolutely going to blow away the park in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
The game was my first taste of baseball in the Sally League. In lower-level baseball, you will tend to see a few more miscues and mistakes. The players are still learning on the job, after all. The highlight of the game involved the Blueclaws employing the delayed double-steal. Quintin Berry stole second base and Julian Williams stole home. Michael Dubee walked two in the seventh however, and the Blueclaws fell to the Hagerstown Suns 7-6. It was a quality game, well worth the drive. Sometimes you need to get a different look at the game. After the sub-par outings in Scranton, this was saving grace to the baseball soul.
All that said, there's a reason I don't like to drive in New Jersey. The Garden State Parkway is elusive and if you miss it, you find yourself in Staten Island. At $6, that's an expensive wrong turn. I got lost twice finding the ballpark.
Philadelphia Sports
I wanted to clarify my supposed Eagles hate. I don't hate the Philadelphia Eagles. If I watch a football game I cheer for them, and if they are in the Super Bowl, I will watch. (More on that later.) The problem comes from the Philadelphia fan base. In 2005, I attended a game between the Phillies and the Florida Marlins, September 9, 2005. The Phillies were fresh off a five game losing streak, and fell behind 4-1 by the third inning. Among the fans, an E-A-G-L-E-S chant struck up.
The general problem is that the fans do not stick behind their teams and support them. At the slightest provocation, they turn on the team and voice their displeasure when things go wrong. The tone of the crowd was, "we give up, we support another team now with a better chance." Of course the Phillies won the game 12-5 and made an admirable run towards the wild card (and fell short.) I think it hurts the local teams that the fans are not more generally supportive. It's tiresome to listen to "woe is me" fans. The Phillies have been good the last several years, as have the Eagles.
So they did not reach the championship. Them and 29-31 other teams. I think fans need to give up championships/playoff wins as a barometer of success. Winning any playoff series is 50/50, and winning a championship at best is an 8:1 shot in the postseason. Long term win/loss percentage is the best measure of team success in sports.
Steroids
Today Congress spent another round of hearings due to the Mitchell Report. I think the big problem specifically is that the report contained information based on the early part of the decade, before Congress held their first hearings. They could not use the report to evaluate baseball's progress. Bigger than that however, I am generally tired of steroids entering the discussion. I am honestly not interested; I would rather hear and talk about transactions and what roster moves teams are making towards next season.
I am a big fan of baseball, as everyone knows. I love the competition. I do not wish to look at the game and wonder who is and is not on steroids. No one does really. I probably support some real bozos. I think Mark McGwire should go into the Hall of Fame. I would rather pretend they do not exist than let it invade every portion of baseball evaluation. That is likely not the wisest position to take. Think of it as a coping mechanism.
Since my dad sent something out on my outbox, I occasionally get emails from the HRCC of Pennsylvania. That's some Republican lobbying group. Got this one in today.
If you want to lobby for your cause, that is perfectly fine. Politics is all about that. In this case, I agree with them on the merits of the issue. I am against putting tolls on I-80. Principally, it is a national highway and if New Jersey hasn't put tolls on it, no state should. What bothers me is when they try arguments such as the one bolded above. Trucking companies are charging less than they have to currently because there are no tolls on I-80? Putting that aside, gasoline prices have risen 300% in the last eight years. Let me make a quick count of the business lost. Certainly doesn't seem to stop developers from putting up a shopping outlet featuring a Best Buy, or a waterpark themed resort, or a brand new Casino and resort.
Honestly, how stupid do you think I am? If you want a good argument, state that drivers will clog already crowded side roads to avoid toll plazas. That's a good argument, and it will carry further appeal to the citizens. It's direct.
And on a side note, I'm tired of their "OMG big cities will eat your money" cry that they seem to bring out on every issue.
Next round, 16 teams remaining. Each team plays a three game series against one opponent, with the winners advancing. The former team listed in each set gets home field, while the latter team gets home field advantage for the next two games.
1921 New York Giants vs. 1906 Chicago Cubs
'21 Giants 6, '06 Cubs 2
'06 Cubs 5, '21 Giants 3
'06 Cubs 5, '21 Giants 0
1906 Chicago Cubs win series 2-1
1924 Washington Senators vs. 1929 Philadelphia Athletics
'29 Athletics 5, '24 Senators 4
'29 Athletics 7, '24 Senators 6 (10 Innings)
1929 Philadelphia Athletics win series 2-0
1962 San Francisco Giants vs. 1953 New York Yankees
'53 Yankees 2, '62 Giants 1
'62 Giants 6, '53 Yankees 2
'62 Giants 12, '53 Yankees 5
1962 San Francisco Giants win series 2-1
1961 New York Yankees vs. 1939 New York Yankees
'39 Yankees 5, '61 Yankees 0
'39 Yankees 5, '61 Yankees 3
1939 New York Yankees win series 2-0
1980 Kansas City Royals vs. 1980 Philadelphia Phillies
'80 Royals 4, '80 Phillies 3, 10 Innings
'80 Royals 8, '80 Phillies 1
1980 Kansas City Royals win series 2-0
1977 New York Yankees vs. 1975 Cincinnati Reds
'77 Yankees 2, '75 Reds 1
'75 Reds 5, '77 Yankees 4
'77 Yankees 7, '75 Reds 3
1977 New York Yankees win series 2-1
1988 Oakland Athletics vs. 1998 New York Yankees
'88 Athletics 2, '98 Yankees 1, 11 Innings
'98 Yankees 3, '88 Athletics 2
'88 Athletics 10, '98 Yankees 1
1988 Oakland Athletics win series 2-1
2001 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. 1995 Cleveland Indians
'95 Indians 5, '01 Diamondbacks 4
'95 Indians 2, '01 Diamondbacks 1
1995 Cleveland Indians win series 2-0
Monday I attended the show live in Wilkes-Barre, PA. I've been busy recently so I have been unable to post my thoughts in full until now. I have the show recorded on DVR but I haven't watched it yet. Therefore my conception of what I watched might be slightly different than what aired on television.
Dark match: Lance Cade/Trevor Murdoch d. Cryme Time. Good little tag match.
All of the matches were good save Candice vs. Krystal. Benoit/Lashley was fun, and there was some pro-Benoit sentiment in the arena. John Cena got his fair share of boos but there were mostly Cena supporters. Honestly, I think Cena gets booed more because it's the cool thing to do than anything he really does. The Hardy Boys were both quite over.
We got Snitsky, the hometown product. Snitsky got quite a few cheers and certainly the Miz was not going to steal his thunder. The reverse-decision was nonsense though. Here in the Pocono Mountains, you're allowed to continue beating on your opponent. It's kind of a reward.
Overall, considering appearances by Roddy Piper and Dusty Rhodes, I feel like I hit the jackpot in getting this show in my area. A tremendous night of wrestling overall.
It's time for another sim tournament. The concept here is simple. The 64 best teams in organized baseball. One week, single elimination. All 30 MLB teams, all 30 AAA teams, and four AA teams. Much like the NCAA tournament, upsets galore. The basics are that there is no rest for teams. When you win, you go on to face a new team the next day. The four AA teams consist of the champions of the Texas, Southern and Eastern Leagues, plus the Reading Phillies (because it's my tournament and they're only Red Sox fodder anyway). The champions of the International and Pacific Coast Leagues get a home field matchup in the first round. Home field goes first to the team from the higher level, then to the team with the better record.
Here is how the field fleshes out.
Boston
Reading Phillies
Richmond
Nashville
Minnesota
Indianapolis
LA Dodgers
Norfolk
San Diego
Round Rock
Florida
Tucson
NY Mets
Charlotte
Chicago White Sox
New Orleans
Arizona
Ottawa
Kansas City
Iowa
Chi. Cubs
Las Vegas
Houston
Omaha
Atlanta
Pawtucket
Texas
Louisville
Pittsburgh
Durham
NY Yankees
San Antonio Mission
LA Angels
Trenton
Tampa Bay
Toledo
Milwaukee
Tacoma
Oakland
Albuquerque Isotopes
Colorado
Memphis
Baltimore
Fresno
Detroit
Syracuse
Washington
Salt Lake City
Philadelphia
Portland
San Francisco
Rochester
Seattle
Columbus
Cincinnati
Buffalo
Toronto
Colorado Springs
St. Louis
Oklahoma City
Sacramento
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
Cleveland
Huntsville Stars
Expect first round results next Saturday.
Who were the best team in the history of the St. Louis Browns? Most fans would assume the 1944 club. That team won the only league championship in the club's history. A better choice however would be the 1922 club. Contrary to what you might think, the Browns were not always non-contenders. In 1922, the Browns finished 93-61, a scant game behind the champion New York Yankees. The Yankees that season traded for Joe Dugan mid-season. That trade, coupled with the NY Giants' midseason trade for Hugh McQuillan, prompted protests that New York teams could buy their way to a pennant. Some things never change.
In addition to holding a better record, the 1922 team played in a tougher league than the '44 club. The 1944 Browns benefitted from World War II, which depleted Major League rosters. Not many fans would recognize Stan Spence, Nick Ettel or Johnny Lindell. Those players finished third, fourth and fifth in OPS in the AL. The leaders in OPS in 1922, by comparison, included Babe Ruth, Tris Speaker, George Sisler, Cy Williams and Harry Heilmann. Clearly more talent existed in the league in 1922. But what about that pennant? Honestly, would the 1944 Browns have won the pennant had they faced the 1922 Yankees? Vern Stephens was a superstar, but the rest just doesn't compare to Babe Ruth, Wally Pipp, and the Yanks' excellent pitching staff that year.
Talent wise, the Browns of 1922 had some excellent players. Hall of Famer George Sisler enjoyed his greatest season, hitting .420 with 42 doubles, 18 triples and 51 stolen bases. In the process Sisler struck out a scant 14 times. Young second baseman Marty McManus hit .312 with 11 home runs, and led American League second basemen in OPS. Outfielder Ken Williams slugged .627 with 39 home runs. The Browns led the league in runs scored. On the pitching side, ace Urban Shocker won 24 games. The Browns finished second in runs allowed, behind only the Yankees.
George Sisler missed the following season however, and the Browns never recovered. Urban Shocker and Pat Collins found their way to the Yankees' dynasty, and Hank Severeid was traded to the Washington Senators. Still, for a couple seasons in the '20s the Browns were one of the best teams in the league.
May 12, 2007
Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies: Citizens Bank Park
-When it comes to geography, nothing beats Citizens Bank Park for an out-of-towner. PA Turnpike to I-95, and then north to the stadium. You go around Philadelphia rather than through it, and traffic is not bad at all. Compare that to New York City, where congestion begins about 30 miles away and gets progressively worse from there. Parking is expensive ($10) but convenient. The park is extremely easy to access from I-95.
-I brought along three friends, and all were impressed with the park. There is hardly a bad seat in the place. We sat 400-level but behind home plate with a great view of the field. There's a secret to attending baseball games. Your best option for viewing the action is anywhere between third and first base. You get better perspective there than sitting five rows past the outfield fence.
-Every time I see the Phils live they explode. 11 runs in this outing. They scored 10 when I saw them in 2006, and 12 the previous time in 2005.
-I left during the rain delay in the seventh. Delays get harder to wait out when you're making day trips from two hours out. The concourse however becomes absolutely impossible to navigate. It will take you a half hour to get around the stadium, at least.
-You honestly can not beat Citizens Bank Park when it comes to ambiance and amenities. Concessions are expensive but not outrageous. $11 will get you a BBQ pork sandwich, a diet coke, and an autograph from Greg "The Bull" Luzinski.
-One actual baseball note. Why teams will run on Shane Victorino I will never understand.
May 13, 2007
Columbus Clippers @ Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees: PNC Field
-The International League gives you the opportunity to see some fun players. Some are guys who should be in the majors (Colter Bean). Some are guys who could've made it with a bit of luck, but are still worth watching (Jim Rushford). And there are some who could not make it in the Majors. Chris Michalak is 36 years old. He's gotten 191 MLB innings, produced a 4.70 ERA (average for his run-scoring environments), but can never stick with a club. The reason is simple. He throws an 81 mph fastball. I love watching him pitch though. He's not masterful like Jamie Moyer. He just throws strikes that get hit right at guys. And he works fast. Hitters have trouble adjusting to his slow stuff and by the time they do, it's time for the flame throwing reliever. On this night he managed five shutout innings, leaving after 53 pitches. I figure his team didn't want to push him as he just returned from a quad injury. I get the feeling watching him that he could be Chris Hammond.
-One hour into the game, we were in the top of the fifth. The game lasted 2:50. That should give you an indication of the relative quality. Chris Booker pitched two innings for the save. Booker throws 95 mph but it's straight and he has no secondary pitch. It took Booker 54 or so pitches to get those last six outs. Compare that with Michalak. Both teams combined for 14 walks, and five errors. Just horrid, horrid baseball.
May 14, 2007
Same teams, same field.
-Same game really except the Yankees won a blowout. The lack of competition made the slow pace more painful. This game took three hours, ending at 10pm. When you get out and hit road construction right off, gah! Especially when your schedule has you out the door at 7am the next morning.
-Mike Bacsik pitched for Columbus. Around the twelfth batter I noticed he had thrown first-pitch strikes to two batters. That's a recipe for disaster. Sure enough, Bacsik surrendered three home runs in the fourth. Bacsik is a good pitcher, throws strikes and flyballs. Sometimes that will get you killed though, as it did this night. Honestly, the Clippers are the Washington Nationals' farm team. If these guys can't make the Nats, how good can they be?
-Two years ago (May 12, 2005), I saw the Reds and Phillies play. Dave Miley was the Reds' manager and D'Angelo Jimenez their starting second baseman. Fast-forward, Miley is managing Scranton and Jimenez is playing for Columbus. During a break in the action Miley (coaching third) and Jimenez (playing third) were seen conversing. It's good to see some old partnerships come up again.
The buzz around Scranton is that Roger Clemens is scheduled to start on Memorial Day. Whether that is for the AAA club or the big club is yet to be seen. I don't have that game, so not seeing Rodge won't bother me. In fact, it would be fun to see Clemens skip Scranton just because of the hype he's received.
Next game is Sunday, Reading against Portland. Ryan Madson is pitching rehab.
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/15267563.htm
From Todd Zolecki's column this morning.
I could've used more details of how the Phils' bench hampered them, but this is absolutely correct. On Friday, the Reds intentionally walked Ryan Howard three times because there was no one on the bench. Right now the Phillies are employing a four man bench and those four players had a combined 91 career at bats coming into this season. Chris Roberson just can't hit (although he's useful as a defensive replacement and pinch runner).
Eight relievers is overkill. Fabio Castro is a useful mop-up man who will take the ball every day. Brian Sanches isn't going to win games with his pitching and it's useless to keep him around for the heck of it.
A friend asked me the other day if Ryan Howard would make the Hall of Fame, and I said he does not have a prayer. My friend was stunned, and I explained why. In the history of baseball there has been just ONE player who became a regular at the age of 25 and went on to have a Hall of Fame career (Sam Rice). Look at the list of players above. Ed Mathews was 21 when he hit 40+ home runs. Dimaggio was 22, and Klein, Kiner and Banks were 24. Jim Gentile was 27, and he's the odd man out.
It's not that Gentile was a bad player. Gentile got a late start because he came up in the Dodgers system when they were overstocked with outfielders. Gentile was finally traded to the Baltimore Orioles before the 1960 season. (On a fun side note, one of the players the Dodgers acquired in this deal was a career minor leaguer named Bill Lajoie. Lajoie is now a senior executive in the Red Sox' front office.) Gentile hit 21 home runs his first year, and 46 the next (an expansion year). The raw stats make the next years look worse than they really are. After 1961, the majors took steps to reduce offense. Gentile was still a good hitter for several seasons. A trade to the Astros and their spacious dome harmed his raw numbers moreso, and Gentile retired in 1966. I doubt Ryan Howard will have the same issue with playing environments.
1. Raw drafts Brian Kendrick and Paul London
This draft harkens back to the memorable NFL draft of 1976 when the Minnesota Vikings drafted the entire offensive line of the University of Oklahoma with their first pick. It was a brilliant move then and a brilliant move now.
2. Smackdown drafts Kenny Dykstra
Good move drafted a pick here with a lot of upside. Kenny's name has a 2:0 K/BB ratio, a great sign for an up and coming young prospect. However, Dykstra leaves trails of tobacco juice in the outfield and some of his ideas come well out of left field. Injuries are a concern.
3. ECW drafts Viscera
Poor pick here from the ECW brand. Just like Big Val E. Puccio and Sal E. Graziano, Viscera will show ECW why big fat f*cks in wrestling don't age well, if at all.
4. Raw drafts The Sandman
The Sandman's 4-9 record looks unimpressive but his caliber of competition has been strong and he did win at Wrestlemania. If the Sandman can kick his smoking and drinking habits, he might finally realize the potential we all saw back in Joel Goodhart's Tri-State promotion years ago.
5. Smackdown selects Ryan Leaf
Awful. Awful pick. What the hell are they thinking?
6. ECW drafts the Miz.
He's still better than Justin Credible.
7. Raw drafts Daivari.
Raw must now decide whether to develop Daivari as a wrestler or as a manager. His wrestling skills are solid enough presently but scouts worry that his clothesline is too long and big-league wrestlers can make him swing and miss with it too often. As a manager, Daivari could not handle the Great Khali and one of my correspondents says, "how can he manager when he can't even manage him?" Yeah, I've since fired that guy.
8. Smackdown drafts the Major Brothers
Oh c'mon now. You really expect me to care? I'm getting something to eat.
9. Raw selects Willie Regal
Solid pick. His father Steven was a big star in World Championship Wrestling last century, and if William can tap into those bloodlines he can go far.
10. Smackdown selects Victoria
I'm going to dip into serious mode here a second. Melina is the top ladies' heel on Raw. Allowing Victoria to move to Smackdown where she can fill the same role is beneficial for all involved.
11. Raw selects Jillian Hall
This is why ECW skipped, because you can find better talent on the indies. Remember when we heard WCW was hiring 10-20 women and we all laughed at the utter stupidity?
Oh yeah, something smart alecky to say. Screw it. I've honestly NEVER seen this woman on tv.
12. Smackdown drafts Eugene.
Eugene? That's retarded. Good athlete but not much upstairs. Kind of like Kyle Drabek.
13. ECW drafts Johnny Nitro
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QUARTERFINALS
San Diego 5
Minnesota 4
WP: Greg Maddux
LP: Carlos Silva
Sv: Trevor Hoffman
Padres scored four in the fifth, including Adrian Gonzalez's two-run home run.
Atlanta 3
Chi. Cubs 1
10 Innings
WP: Peter Moylan
LP: Scott Eyre
Sv: Rafael Soriano
The Braves prior to the tenth scored just one run on 12 hits. The Cubs only managed two hits in the game. Kelly Johnson drove in he go-ahead runs with a double in the tenth.
Colorado 5
Oakland 4
WP: Josh Fogg
LP: Lenny Dinardo
Sv: Manuel Corpas
Brad Hawpe homered for the Rockies. Travis Buck hit three doubles in a losing effort.
St. Louis 10
San Francisco 7
WP: Adam Wainwright
LP: Matt Cain
Sv: Jason Isringhausen
Cain imploded, giving up four runs without recording an out. The Cards scored nine of their runs in the first three innings. Chris Duncan collected four RBIs in the victory.
Semifinal Matchups:
Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres
St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies.
With the preponderance of baseball statistics on the internet, you might question the need for an annual statistics book. Certainly, baseball-reference.com provides a plethora of statistics along with sorting options and statistical splits that a printed version simply can not match. In this environment, a publisher needs to add a few bells and whistles to entice paying customers.
First off, if you feel the need for a print stat book of any kind, stop now and buy the book. That said, here are a few other features. The book offers a look at the first version of the "Fielding Bible" awards. The publishers chose a panel of ten voters, ranging from Bill James and Rob Neyer to the Tangotiger online fan poll. Honestly, this strikes me a bit elitist. It is one thing to say you can improve the process. It is another to assume you are a better voting group because you disagree with the results. The awards are improved by the nature of the process, each voter submits a weighted ballot rather than choosing a single player. If they selected candidates the same way the actual gold glove awards do, three of the picks would change.
You get the usual chapters you expect. Park factors, managers' records, platoon splits, etc. The manager index demonstrates how many lineups a manager used, how many pinch-hitters and runners used, and more than a dozen other categories. Some other records are compiled. Particularly useful are baserunning statistics, chronicling how often a player went from first to third on a single, or scored from second on a single, or scored from first on a double. The best baserunner in 2007 of course was Jose Reyes. The best baserunning team suprisingly was the Kansas City Royals.
Much has been made of the Young Talent Inventory. That James produced a list based solely on 2007 statistics seems quite sloppy. I believe it is an example of the commerce aspect of the book, needing to attach names and essays to the book in the interest of sales. The player comments however are interesting. Player projections are covered (only for established players), as well as win shares. I wish the publishers would simply list the win shares in the career register.
Amazon currently lists this book around $15. For that price, it's a solid purchase.
I'm sure a lot of Yankee fans are anxious for the arrival of Phil Hughes. Seeing him pitch in Scranton, I honestly can not say I witnessed anything impressive. Hughes gave up five runs in five innings, two walks and one strikeout. I wouldn't have considered him notable if not for the name. That said, it was one start, it was cold and most of the game was played in a light rain. I don't trust performances in these conditions. For what it's worth, Hughes throws a low-90s fastball.
The game ended after seven innings due to rain. The SWB Yankees now go on the road for a week and a half, and my next live game is not for thirteen days. The next games are against the Ottawa Lynx, the new farm team of the Philadelphia Phillies.
I'm surprised the last one is six weeks old already. Damn.
The Phillies' minor league season is over, and I'm mulling over a list of the Phils' Top 20 prospects. Considering prospects from Triple A to Low A is a fairly simple matter. The stats can give you about 70-90% of what you need to know. In Short Season A and Rookie ball though, it's a crapshoot. You've got 18 year old kids in a league too far down to project, along with a sample size too small to trust. You really need good scouts to evaluate prospects at that level. I don't have that luxury. Baseball America though is printing their top 20 prospect lists from each league over the next few weeks. It's a useful guide for getting a start on the lower tier prospects. Five Phillies made the list from the Gulf Coast League.
7. Adrian Cardenas, SS
12. Kyle Drabek, RHP
14. Jesus Sanchez, C
17. D'Arby Myers, OF
19. Carlos Monasterios, RHP
Cardenas has hit but his defense is troubling and his future may lie at another position. Drabek's highly touted but his makeup is questionable. Sanchez and Monasterios I know little about besides the fact that neither has gone 20/20 in the majors or posted a .400 OBP. D'Arby Myers was one of the top hitters in the GCL, but his BB:K ratio is poor. I know little personally about their long term prospects, so I defer to Baseball America. I wouldn't switch these guys around unless I had overwhelming evidence to do so.
EDIT: The NY-Penn rankings are out, and no Phillies made the list. RHP Edgar Garcia is the only person on that club who really inspires immediate notice. The South Atlantic League rankings place Carlos Carrasco fifth (the top pitcher), Matt Maloney 19th and Josh Outman 20th.
Using Baseball Reference's Play Index, I came up with a list of the best player seasons by players in their final year. This list comprises players in their last season, playing 100+ games, sorted by OPS+.
1. Ted Williams
Playing in 113 games, Williams hit .316 with 29 home runs, 72 RBIs, and 75 walks (adding up to a .451 OBP). Announcing his retirement before the end of the season, Williams hit a home run in his final career at bat.
2. "Shoeless" Joe Jackson
This is actually 1920, as it took a season for the Black Sox scandal to break. Offenses around the league exploded, Jackson himself hit .382 with power and plate discipline. Jackson hit 42 doubles, 20 triples, 12 home runs, 121 RBIs, and only 14 strikeouts. With three games remaining in the season, Jackson and company were suspended by MLB in the wake of the Black Sox indictments. He was later banned for life the following season.
3. Nick Johnson
Johnson suffered a horrific leg injury in September of 2006 and missed the entire 2007 campaign. Will he ever play again? If not, note his .428 OBP for the Nationals in 2006, playing in a tough hitters' park.
4. Will Clark
After quietly producing quality seasons in Texas, Clark moved to Baltimore and missed half of the 1999 season. Clark played well in 2000 with the Orioles, staying healthy and again producing quality. Meanwhile in St. Louis, Mark McGwire suffered nagging injuries. The Cards looked to Clark as a stopgap, and Clark exploded, hitting .345 down the stretch and leading St. Louis to a Central division championship. The Cardinals tried to re-sign Clark for a LF job, but Clark elected retirement instead.
Let me note here that Clark's season in 1989 was every bit as good as Jim Rice's 1978, in context. Clark was a flat out better player with a better career, but of course got no Hall of Fame support.
5. Happy Felsch
See Joe Jackson. Felsch hit .338, collected 69 extra base hits, drove in 115 runners and played center field. Hall of Fame material? Probably not. He had a similar OPS+ careerwise as players such as Cesar Cedeno, Ray Lankford, Cy Williams and Rick Monday.
6. Mickey Mantle
When Mickey Mantle hit .237 with 18 home runs and 54 RBIs, he looked done. The composite batting line for the American League in 1968 was .233/.302/.346. Mantle's .782 OPS that season actually ranked 9th in the American League.
7. Dave Nilsson
Nilsson had something of a fluke season, hitting .309 in 115 games as a catcher. Nilsson departed after the season to play for Australia in the 2000 olympics, and has generally been an Australian baseball mainstay since.
8. Steve Evans
The only player on the list I never heard of. Evans jumped to the Federal League and had two very good seasons there in 1914-15. When the league folded, Evans disappeared from the majors.
9. Brian Downing
.407 OBP for the Texas Rangers in 1992 as a DH in 107 games. Downing had not played a game in the field since 1987, so only his bat carried him.
10. Buzz Arlett
Arlett hit .318/.387/.538 in his only MLB season with the Phillies. Arlett was a star in the Pacific Coast League, back when that meant something. Arlett could have easily had a productive career in the Majors, but like many players of his day preferred to stay closer to home in California.
One of the troubling aspects of professional sports in the last twenty years ago is the rush for profits. Inevitably it would filter down to the minor leagues, as operators realize there is more money out there. It is great for the bottom line and well-heeled fans, but for the average fan it creates a more sterile environment. Last year you could go to a Red Barons game, buy a ticket at the window and sit up close. This year the team has sold out the entire lower deck for season tickets. With so many tickets sold in advance, the team has no need to offer giveaway items. At the concessions, more prepackaged food (and more expensive at that). You go into the park and you watch a game, but you don't feel a part of it anymore. And really, with all the money coming in it's hard to blame them. But it makes me less enthusiastic to attend games. I don't know if it's the extreme cold or the pace, but these games have not been fun at all.
I've been putting this off for several days. As some of you might imagine, I am somewhat steamed by the trade that sent Bobby Abreu to the Yankees for four prospects. Abreu was one of my favorite players, and the Yankees are my most hated enemy. But sometimes good baseball sense requires that you set personal feelings aside and make decisions that win games. So I would like to be as fair about this as possible.
First off, the trade is terrible, value-for-value. The Phillies sent a player away with a .301 career batting average, .412 OBP, 261 career stolen bases, and two All-Star appearances. I could recite statistics all day. The players the Phillies got in return include a 20 year old shortstop in Low A known more for his athleticism than his production, a 27 year old middle reliever currently in AAA, and two prospects with potential but too far away to even project. All the circumstances in the trade point to a pure salary dump. That the Phils got little in return and did it at the trading deadline gives the impression that they wanted (or perhaps needed) to clear Abreu's salary as quickly as possible. Let's face it. Attendance at the new Citizens Bank Park has settled back to 2.6 Million after spiking to 3.2 Million its first season. Pessimistic messages by G.M. Pat Gillick will not help season ticket sales. The previous payroll of $95 Million is probably not sustainable in the eyes of the club. (It probably is, but I'm not going to turn this into another essay about club economics).
The trade aside, does this move make the Phillies better? Payroll flexibility gets thrown around alot, but that implies that the Phillies will both spend the savings, and that there are players worth buying. Maybe by spending the money on two players you come out ahead by plugging holes. That's entirely possible, but we will not see that until the offseason. In the meantime, improvements in the Phillies play will no doubt be attributed to some sort of clubhouse chemestry, the idea being that Abreu was some sort of curmudgeon whose mere presence forced Ryan Franklin to throw multiple gopher balls.
That of course is nonsense. But defense is not, and Abreu's play in right field has declined over the last two seasons. You can punt defense in one corner, but putting up with Abreu in right field AND Pat Burrell's declining range in left field has worsened the defense, and might be responsible for some of the Phils' inability to prevent runs. I feel fairly comfortable even as an Abreu fan working under the assumption that switching right fielders will improve the defense.
Does that make up for the lack of offense? Most fans assume that adding/deleting a star makes a greater difference than it really does. David Dellucci has actually posted a better OPS the last two years than Bobby Abreu. Abreu has a higher OBP, by perhaps 70 points. Over the last two months of the season, that works out to reaching base about 14 times more.
Now, Dellucci's offense is largely based against right handed pitching. By a happy coincidence, Shane Victorino is crushing LEFT handed pitching this season. If you get a right-handed hitting platoon partner for Dellucci, you've replaced 80% of Abreu's production at about a third of the cost. The Phils play only a fourth of their games against lefties, so Dellucci's lack of production against lefties isn't a serious problem.
You know, I actually like this deal a bit. I don't think the Phillies are much worse without Abreu, and they should be able to pick up some help over the offseason. The Phils have some young pitching coming up the system, and I think they'll contend next season.
Other Phillies Notes:
The last Phillies notes on MLB.com reported the outstanding batting line of Branden Florence in Class A Clearwater. What the article didn't mention is that Florence is a designated hitter and sometime left fielder, and that he's 28 years old. In his prime, he's posted an MLE (Major League Equivelency) of .252/.283/.323. In context, Peter Bergeron's a better prospect.....SS Adrian Cardenas is ripping up the Gulf Coast League. He has an excellent chance of showing up on my postseason top 30 prospect list....The Red Barons are six games up on the playoffs with 32 games left.
Since I am ordering the show tonight, I thought I might as well give some pre-match thoughts and projections.
Royal Rumble Match
Always a good show. I am a bit wary though on the HHH show. I find his character stale and his matches generally dull. It is not that he is not a good wrestler, but he is terribly methodical. Every time he wrestles a big gimmick match you know it is going 20+ minutes. HHH/Orton at Wrestlemania does not interest me in the slightest. The only thing that might make it watchable is an Evolution Fatal Four-way. In this match though, you have either HHH or the Undertaker, unless WWE throws a major curveball. Other storylines heading in are the Hornswaggle/Finlay saga, and that's about it. We'll see.
Jeff Hardy vs. Randy Orton
You know the IWC are still marks at heart. Everyone wants WWE to put Jeff over in this match although it really doesn't make good long-term booking sense. It would devalue Orton as champion even if they gave him the belt back, and Jeff as champion would not have a ready opponent apart from the Orton rematch. I'd love to see a title change though, because we're all marks at heart. Jeff has become one of WWE's better talents, and it will be a great moment when he does win the title, here or in the future.
Edge vs. Rey Mysterio
No one really believes Mysterio has a shot here.
MVP vs. Ric Flair
Again, everyone buys Flair coming out on top, possibly thanks to Matt Hardy. This Rumble card is really devoid of suspense, which makes me believe that they might try a surprise on at least one of the matches.
JBL vs. Chris Jericho
I think there might be money in a gimmick match down the road, though they would be crazy to try a blood feud blowoff on the same card as an elimination chamber, and I do not know if they can drag this out until Wrestlemania. This match honestly though gives Jericho his best shot at a great match in two years. Hopefully he can deliver.
Joe Podnanski on his blog wrote a piece about RBI opportunities. Baseball Prospectus in their book Baseball Between the Numbers wrote about worst players who drove in 100+ RBIs. I figured to take a look at guys who drove in 130 or more runners in a season, to see if anyone actually had a bad season in the process. One clearly did, Moose Salters.
Salters in 1936 drove in 134 runners with the St. Louis Browns. His numbers look superficially good, but the entire American League that season hit .302. Of the six left fielders in the league who played more than 100 games, Solters ranked fifth ahead of only Joe Vosmik. Solters undoubtably saw many RBI opportunities thanks to three hitters on the team who produced a .400+ on base percentage (Harlond Cliff, Lyn Lary and Beau Bell). Oddly, Salters' year was a down year between two good ones.
While we are having fun with the Play Index, let's see who the worst pitcher was to win 20 games. Before I run this search, I am almost certain it will be a player from the 19th century, probably very early in the existance of the organized leagues. Indeed, we find Jack Lynch, who went 23-21 with a 3.61 ERA for the New York Metropolitans. A 3.61 ERA is bad? When the league average is 2.79, yes. One thing to note about 19th Century baseball. While Lynch allowed 152 earned runs, he allowed 243 total runs, 91 unearned runs. Teams committed so many errors that team defense contributed perhaps more to run prevention than team pitching.
Moving forward to the 20th century, we come up with Henry Schmidt. Schmidt went 22-13 with the Brooklyn Superbas, his 3.83 ERA leading to an 83 ERA+. He had the best win/loss percentage on his team, though they finished fifth overall in runs scored. Schmidt never pitched an inning in the majors outside of 1903.
Modern time, it is Lew Burdette. Burdette pitched 289.7 innings, walked 38 batters and gave up 38 home runs. Admittedly the ERA+ totals are not impressively low, showing that most 20 game winners have legit talent, particularly if they do it more than once. (I did not say Hall of Fame talent, so don't jump the gun on Jack Morris.)
Coming up in the near future, best swansong seasons of all time. You can probably guess #1.
Before I begin, a quick note about ERA+, since I will use it often in this blog. ERA+ takes a pitcher's ERA and adjusts it for park and era. An ERA+ of 100 is league average. Higher is above average, lower is below average.
Hall of Fame Relievers
In my last entry I discussed the Hall of Fame chances for starting pitchers. This time out I will cover the relievers. Relief pitchers are a difficult field to judge because the Hall of Fame voters are still establishing the bar of excellence. To this date, only four relievers have been elected to the Hall (Bruce Sutter is not techically a member until his induction next month, but we're treating him as an inductee for this purpose). Here's a brief overview of their statistics.
Hoyt Wilhelm (1952-72): 143-122, 2.52 ERA, 146 ERA+, 227 saves, 2,254.3 Innings Pitched
Rollie Fingers (1968-85): 114-118, 2.90 ERA, 119 ERA+, 341 saves, 1,701.3 IP
Bruce Sutter (1976-88): 68-71, 2.83 ERA, 136 ERA+, 300 saves, 1,042.3 IP
Dennis Eckersley (1975-98): 197-171, 3.50 ERA, 116 ERA+, 390 saves, 3,285.7 IP
When comparing starters, you can make a group of Hall of Famers and compare candidates. You can not really do that here because all four inductees are different. Hoyt Wilhelm was a knuckleball pitcher who did not even reach the majors until the age of 29 (incidently, he hit his only career home run in his first at bat). Rollie Fingers looks like an undeserving candidate in some aspects, but he did retire as the career leader in saves. Dennis Eckersley combined dual careers as a starter and reliever. And Bruce Sutter may or may not have invented the split-finger fastball.
The difficulty is that some relievers with equal credentials have been excluded. Dan Quisenberry for example finished with a career ERA+ better than any of the four Hall of Fame relievers above. Voters are less impressed with final results and more impressed with image. A reliever needs either a blazing fastball or high strikeout totals. Quisenberry rarely struck out batters, but he walked as few batters as any pitcher in modern baseball history.
What is the best measure of reliever quality? Saves? The top five in saves are Lee Smith, Trevor Hoffman, John Franco, Dennis Eckersley and Mariano Rivera. Jeff Reardon follows at number six. The problem is that saves are a product of the current era. Jose Mesa has 319 saves and a career ERA+ of 101 (just about average). That's certainly not Hall of Fame quality.
You need to set aside statistics across eras. The trend in relief pitching has been to utilize shorter outings. Modern relievers pitch less innings than twenty or thirty years ago. However, they pitch at MUCH higher effectiveness. Billy Wagner's ERA+ would rate as the best of all time, but he has not even pitched 700 innings at this rate. If pitchers of this era pitched in a different era, they could pitch longer but less effectively. The same goes for the relievers of the Gossage/Sutter era.
So the only real way to identify Hall of Fame relievers is to compare them against the current era. The mark of a Hall of Famer is separation from the pack. If many players have reached the same level of achievement, then it's not that outstanding a performance. From baseball-reference, I identified the 15 active leaders in games finished. Those 15 relievers compiled ERA+'s ranging from 197 to 101.
I think we can safely dismiss the nine relievers with ERA+'s under 140. I do not see a single Hall of Fame candidate among that group. That gives us six names. Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, Troy Percival, Armando Benitez, Trevor Hoffman and Keith Foulke. Billy Wagner and Troy Percival each have less than 700 innings pitched for their career, and Armando Benitez and Keith Foulke are barely above that. All four would easily have the fewest innings pitched of any Hall of Fame pitcher (including Babe Ruth). That leaves Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman as legitimate candidates with an acceptable number of innings pitched.
Mariano Rivera has really surpassed any element of debate. Rivera's ERA+ is better than any pitcher in baseball history. On top of that, he has pitched 111.7 innings in the postseason with just an 0.81 ERA, an 8-1 record and 34 saves. Not only is Rivera's postseason ERA the lowest of any pitcher with significant postseason innings, but they are nearly all high leverage innings.
Trevor Hoffman's a slightly more difficult case. His ERA+ is very good, but Rivera, Billy Wagner, Troy Percival and Armando Benitez are better (and Wagner's is significantly better). How much strength do you put in 150-200 more innings pitched? It is not insignificant, considering that is 3-4 seasons worth of work for a relief pitcher. Hoffman doesn't have a real postseason resume (although he's pitched well when given the opportunity. Hoffman has however put himself in reach of the all time saves mark. When Hoffman reaches the All-Time saves record, he should punch his ticket to the Hall of Fame. His ERA+ is on the level of the elites, and you have to do something right to set the saves record.
The big question mark is Billy Wagner. No one really discusses him as a Hall of Famer, and I never really saw him as such. But his 180 ERA+ is one of the greatest marks in baseball history, and only Rivera is really on his level. Wagner is the most dominant left handed relief pitcher of all time. However, his 650 or so innings is incredibly low for a Hall of Famer. In 3-4 years however, he might be a serious candidate.
