KK's Korner

1) He gets a “moderate” Democrat by the name of Joe Lieberman to lose in his primary to this liberal who had the founder of the Daily Kos blog in his political commercials. Then he gets Lieberman to run as an Independent, and it’s quite possible that Joe can win in his state's general election.

 

With Independant Lieberman and the Democratic nominee running, isn't it more likely that the Republican nominee wins the Senate seat outright?

You would assume that, but consider the commie state in question. I think a baseball/numbers junkie like yourself might appreciate this:

 

Data from 2004 show that Democrats have a 50% registration edge over Republicans in Connecticut at 34% to 22%. But the unaffiliated/independent registration is larger than either at 44%. Interestingly, there has been a consistent two-decade long trend of decline in registration in both major parties and increase in unaffiliated voters. A substantial majority of these independents are, in my view, likely to vote for Lieberman. Many Republicans will as well. Combined with roughly half of the Democratic Party, it's more than enough to give him the victory. Ideological liberals like Marshall won't understand it because they think the world revolves around them, that others are not smart enough to vote, and that if somehow we find our way to the voting booth our votes should not count. Luckily for us, he's wrong.

 

Here's another source I found. Note that Lieberman lost 48 percent to 52 percent. Anything can happen from now until November, but Joe still has a chance to retain his seat, albeit under a different Party affiliation.

 

August 7: Quinnipiac's final poll gives Lieberman a ray of hope as it is the first poll that has moved in his direction since February. Conceivably, Lamont may have peaked too soon giving Lieberman a window to squeak by, but the balance of evidence still points to Lamont having the broader momentum as well as the turnout advantage. With Lamont likely to win the primary, the question turns to the three-way in the fall (assuming Lieberman stays in the race).

 

Looking at the state's registration and recent voting trends, 40% is the rough number Lieberman needs to stay above in order to remain the favorite in the three-way race against Lamont. Given all of the energy on the challenger's side, it wouldn't be surprising if Lamont outperforms the polls, and perhaps significantly. If Lamont wins by more than 20 points (62-38), Lieberman is in all likelihood finished. However, if Lieberman is able to pull within single digits that would be a very good sign for his chances in the fall. Lieberman's distance from 40% will be the best tell on how the three-way race will shake out.