Well, here are the numbers for last year...
http://72.14.203.104/search?q=cache:paIg5t...us&ct=clnk&cd=2
First and second with no outs is a decidedly better position to be in.
Yeah, I don't know why you'd waste an out to score FEWER runs.
Looking at the variance on those numbers would be interesting. I'd suspect your odds of scoring at least one run would be higher with 2nd and 3rd/1 out, which would make it preferable to 1st and 2nd/0 out in tie games late, but I have no idea why anyone would do it in the third inning. Have some confidence in your hitters, man.