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EVIL~! alkeiper

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Blog Entries posted by EVIL~! alkeiper

  1. EVIL~! alkeiper
    What games are the most crucial games in a series. At times a media outlet will trot out a statistic claiming that the team that wins game one wins the series at such and such a percentage. Is that true, and if so, does that make game one an absolute necessity. A bout of extreme boredom at work set me on the path of exploring some mathematical exploration. Using a statistical model of each team having a 50/50 shot of winning each game, I caculated how much the odds of winning a seven game series changed with each situation, such as a team up three games to one or two games to zero. Here are the various situations in order from most important to least. Importance here is defined by what extent the game changes the odds of winning the series.
     
    1. Game Seven
     
    2. Game Six
     
    3. Game Four when one team holds a 2-1 series lead
     
    4. Game Three when one team holds a 2-0 series lead
     
    5. Game Five when one team holds a 3-1 series lead
     
    6. Game Five when the series is tied
     
    7. Game Two
     
    8. Game Three when the series is tied
     
    9. Game Four when one team holds a 3-0 series lead
     
    10. Game One
     
    In order to test this, I took a look at real life results, specifically MLB's last 45 postseason series. In the real world, teams taking 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 series leads have won more often than we would expect. Teams taking a 3-0 lead have won less often, but that's entirely due to one outlier in 2004. Teams taking 3-1 and 3-2 leads have won almost <I>exactly</I> as often as we expect. I think the reason for the discrepancy in the first results is because when a team takes a lead, it is often because they truly are a better team, and thus are operating at odds better than 50/50.
     
    Teams that have won game one since 1990 have won the series 71% of the time. That's significant, but then again teams that have taken game two as well have won 90% of the time, and that is another huge gain. I think if you looked at the results of any game, you would see the same result (except for game seven, which would give you 100%). You can shift the odds around to develop different percentages, but the order above would remain roughly the same.
     
    I don't know if you can do anything with this, but I had it down on paper and figured I would print it.
  2. EVIL~! alkeiper
    Recently I stumbled upon Baseball America's archive of its Top 100 prospect lists from their inception in 1990 until today. John Sickels has a regular feature on his blog chronicaling the paths of some of the top players in baseball. I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at some of the players once considered top prospects in the Phillies systems. There are some hits (Pat Burrell, Ryan Howard, Scott Rolen), and some duds (Ryan Brannan). More interestingly, there are guys who went on to big careers who were not top prospects, like Mike Lieberthal. I figured I would start this with a player viewed as a top prospect who crashed. Tyler Green made Baseball America's Top Prospect List three times, yet failed miserably as an MLB player.
     
    The Phils drafted Green tenth overall out of the 1991 Amateur Draft. Perhaps they were mesmerized by visions of Dallas Green. In any case, Green must have had good raw stuff. His initial numbers back his ability. Green debuted with three starts in Short-Season A Batavia, and followed with two in High A Clearwater. His numbers in those starts included a 3-0 record, 28 IP, 10 Hits, 0 HRs, 14 BBs and 39 Ks. The walks were high, but the strikeout numbers were outstanding. Based on his scouting report and that showing, Baseball America rated Green the 26th best prospect in baseball.
     
    1992 saw Green fast-tracked to AA Reading. In 12 starts he dominated again, pitching 62.3 innings, 46 hits, 2 HRs, 20 BBs and 67 Ks, 1.88 ERA. Green was promoted to AAA Scranton but only made two starts, pitching 10.3 innings and walking twelve, posting a 6.10 ERA. After the season Baseball America rated Green the number 31 prospect in baseball.
     
    Missed time combined with an abysmal record (particularly with a high walk rate) usually indicates an injury. Unfortunately I can not find direct information confirming it. One thing for certain though is that Green never pitched as well again. In 1993 Tyler spent most of the season at AAA Scranton. His K rate fell to 6.62 per nine. His 3.95 ERA netted him a trip to Philly however where he was shelled in three appearances.
     
    After that season Baseball America demoted Green all the way to 36. Without the knowledge of DIPS, Green's performance looked decent enough on the surface. He fell to earth in 1994. Spending the entire year in AAA Scranton, Green struck out just 95 batters in 162 innings, walked 77, gave up 25 home runs, and posted a 5.56 ERA. (The minors stayed in business during the MLB strike.) Green fell off the Baseball America Prospect list. Undaunted, the Phillies called Green to their rotation to start the 1995 season. Green compiled an 8-9 record with a 5.31 ERA, again with poor peripherals. Injuries would again strike, costing Tyler the 1996 campaign.
     
    Green returned to Scranton in 1997, delivering a 6.10 ERA in 12 starts. Looking over those numbers, the Phillies realized they had no choice but to promote him. Green finished the year in Philadelphia, posting a 4.93 ERA in 14 starts. Green then pitched all of 1998 with the Phillies, delivering a 5.03 ERA. Green never again pitched in the majors. He had one more awful year in Scranton (4-6, 7.69 ERA), and drew his release. AAA Buffalo picked him up the next year and received an 8.38 ERA in 29 innings for their troubles.
     
    Looking over Green, we have a pitcher who ha obvious talent, but was derailed by injuries. Even the surest of pitching prospects walks this minefield, which is why some sabermetrically inclined prospect mavens are increasingly hesitant to name a pitcher as the top prospect in baseball. See Ryan Anderson for an example. Thanks to the Stats Inc. 2001 Minor League Handbook for the numbers. The Baseball Cube page is in error regarding some of Green's 1992/93 stats with Scranton.
  3. EVIL~! alkeiper
    Just eight teams left in the mock tournament. In this round, the field is split into two double elimination tournaments. One team advances from each field to play in the finals. I will provide actual details on the games from here on.
     
    FIELD ONE
     
    1929 Athletics @ 1906 Cubs
    1962 Giants @ 1939 Yankees
     
    '29 Athletics 5, '06 Cubs 4, 12 Innings
     
    Mule Haas's RBI single in the twelve inning drove in Jimmy Dykes for the go ahead run, and Carroll Yerkes pitched a 1-2-3 inning for the save. Howard Ehmke collected the win for the A's and Orval Overall picked up the loss. Joe Tinker, who hit just 31 home runs his entire career, hit a two run shot in the second.
     
    '62 Giants 9, '39 Yankees 8
     
    The Giants survived a thriller at Yankee Stadium. The Giants rallied in the eighth inning, scoring three runs on Charlie Keller's dropped fly ball in right field. The Yankees tied the game in the bottom of the eighth, scoring three runs with Joe Gordon's two run shot tying the game. Willie Mays hit a go ahead home run in the ninth, and the Giants added another run. The Yankees scored a run in the bottom of the inning, and nearly scored the tying run before Red Rolfe was thrown out at home plate. Don Larsen picked up the win for the Giants, Oral Hildebrand got the loss and Bobby Bolin earned the save.
     
    1906 Cubs @ 1939 Yankees
    1962 Giants @ 1929 Athletics
     
    '39 Yankees 7, '06 Cubs 1
     
    Joe Gordon's three run double put the Yankees up 4-1, and they coasted to an easy victory. Three Finger Brown started a day early and surrendered five runs in six innings. Bump Hadley picked up the win. Brown got the loss, finishing the tournament with a 2-1 record. Joe Gordon finished the game with four RBIs. The Cubs are eliminated from the tournament.
     
    '62 Giants 8, '29 Athletics 7, 10 Innings
     
    Orlando Cepeda, Willie Mays and Felipe Alou connected for three straight solo home runs in the top of the ninth with two outs to tie the game. The A's had a chance to win the game in the bottom of the ninth but Al Simmons grounded into a bases loaded double play. The Giants' Jose Pagan knocked in the go ahead run in the top of the tenth against a depleated A's bullpen. Stu Miller (2-0) collected the win while Carroll Yerkes (1-1) got the loss. The A's go on to face the '39 Yankees, with the winner advancing to a rematch with the Giants.
     
    '39 Yankees 13, '29 Athletics 3
     
    George Earnshaw surrendered eight runs in two and a third innings of work, and the Yankees cruised to victory. Charlie Keller went 3 for 4 with a home run, 4 RBIs and 2 walks. Pitcher Atley Donald went 3 for 5 at the plate. Donald picked up the win and improved to 2-0. Earnshaw collected the loss, falling to 2-1.
     
    '39 Yankees 4, '62 Giants 3, 11 Innings
     
    Joe Dimaggio tied the game with a two run home run in the top of the ninth off Don Larsen, and scored the go-ahead run in the 11th on Joe Gordon's sacrifice fly. Steve Sundra (1-0) earned the win, while Gaylord Perry (0-1) took the loss.
     
    '39 Yankees 13, '62 Giants 3
     
    Frankie Crosetti hit a home run and two triples, and Lefty Gomez pitched a complete game as the Yankees crushed the Giants. Gomez improves to 2-0, while the Giants' losing pitcher Billy O'Dell falls to 1-1. The 1939 Yankees advance to the tournament finals.
     
    FIELD TWO
     
    1980 Royals @ 1977 Yankees
    1995 Indians @ 1988 Athletics
     
    '77 Yankees 11, '80 Royals 5
     
    Bucky F'n Dent hit a two run home run to cap a sixth inning, five run rally, and the Yankees cruised to victory. Reggie Jackson added his fourth home run of the tournament. Mike Torrez picked up the win to improve to 2-0. Rich Gale (1-1) got the loss. Ken Clay pitched three innings of scoreless relief for the save.
     
    '95 Indians 8, '88 Athletics 3, 12 Innings
     
    Eddie Murray hit a two run home run in the top of the twelveth to break a 3-3 tie, and the Indians tacked on three runs, thanks in part to Glenn Hubbard's two out error. Mark McGwire hit two home runs and a double. The Indians' bullpen held the A's to one run the final six innings. Jose Mesa (1-0) picked up the save, while Gene Nelson (1-1) got the loss. The Indians now play the Yankees in the winners' bracket while the A's play the Royals in the losers' bracket.
     
    '95 Indians 8, '77 Yankees 5
     
    Albert Belle hit two home runs and collected five RBIs to lead the Tribe to an 8-5 victory. A Chris Chambliss error with two in the eighth opened the door for the second home run, which broke a 5-5 tie. Paul Assenmacher (2-0) got the win while Sparky Lyle (0-1) got the loss.
     
    '80 Royals 6, '88 Athletics 5
     
    George Brett hit a two run double in the ninth, and Dan Quisenberry pitched a scoreless ninth for the save. The A's are eliminated, and the Royals proceed to a rematch with the Yankees. Winner of that reaches the regional final against Cleveland.
     
    '77 Yankees 3, '80 Royals 2
     
    Roy White's two out, RBI double in the eighth drove in the go ahead run and Sparky Lyle pitched a scoreless ninth for his third save. Ron Guidry gave up just two runs over eight innings to improve his record to 2-1. Dan Quisenberry took the loss, falling to 1-1. The Yankees advance to the final against the Indians. The Indians need to win one while the Yanks have to win twice.
     
    '95 Indians 7, '77 Yankees 1
     
    Eddie Murray's three run home run capped a five run third as the Indians crushed the Yankees. Orel Hershiser (1-1) picked up the win while Ed Figueroa (1-1) got the loss. Chad Ogea earned his second save by pitching three scoreless innings. The 1995 Indians advance to the final, where they will face the 1939 Yankees in a three game series.
  4. EVIL~! alkeiper
    These games determine who reaches the regional finals. Losers are eliminated. The team they will face in the regional final is in parenthesis.
     
    '14 Bos(N) @ '34 StL ('06 ChC)
    '19 Cin @ '35 ChC ('21 NYG)
    '29 PhA @ '19 CWS ('27 NYY)
    '09 Pit @ '12 NYG ('24 Was)
     
    '34 Cardinals 5, '14 Braves 2
    '19 Reds 5, '35 Cubs 3
    '29 Athletics 8, '19 White Sox 4
    '12 Giants 12, '09 Pirates 11, 11 Innings
     
    '50 Phi @ '57 Mil ('53 NYY)
    '55 Brk @ '41 Brk ('62 SF)
    '46 Bos(A) @ '63 LA ('61 NYY)
    '35 Det @ '40 Cin ('39 NYY)
     
    '50 Phillies 4, '57 Braves 2
    '41 Dodgers 5, '55 Dodgers 4
    '63 Dodgers 7, '46 Red Sox 5
    '40 Reds 4, '35 Tigers 2
     
    '67 Bos @ '74 Oak ('80 KC)
    '80 Phi @ '69 NYM ('85 StL)
    '79 Pit @ '86 NYM ('77 NYY)
    '82 Mil @ '68 Det ('75 Cin)
     
    '74 Athletics 5, '67 Red Sox 4
    '80 Phillies 4, '69 Mets 2
    '86 Mets 3, '79 Pirates 2
    '82 Brewers 4, '68 Tigers 3
     
    '94 Mon @ '04 StL ('98 NYY)
    '01 Sea @ '04 Bos ('88 Oak)
    '02 SF @ '95 Cle ('05 CWS)
    '92 Tor @ '03 Fla ('01 Ari)
     
    '04 Cardinals 4, '94 Expos 3
    '04 Red Sox 4, '01 Mariners 1
    '95 Indians 7, '02 Giants 2
    '03 Marlins 7, '92 Blue Jays 3
     
    Day four will see the first part of the regional finals. Since it is double elimination, the losers' bracket entrant needs to win two while the winners' bracket team needs one win.
     
    '34 StL @ '06 ChC
    '19 Cin @ '21 NYG
    '29 PhA @ '27 NYY
    '12 NYG @ '24 Was
     
    '06 Cubs 2, '34 Cardinals 1
    '19 Reds 6, '21 Giants 2
    '29 Athletics 9, '27 Yankees 6
    '24 Senators 4, '12 Giants 3
     
    '50 Phi @ '53 NYY
    '41 Brk @ '62 SF
    '63 LAD @ '61 NYY
    '40 Cin @ '39 NYY
     
    '53 Yankees 2, '50 Phillies 1
    '41 Dodgers 8, '62 Giants 2
    '63 Dodgers 6, '61 Yankees 4
    '39 Yankees 7, '40 Reds 6
     
    '74 Oak @ '80 KC
    '80 Phi @ '85 StL
    '86 NYM @ '77 NYY
    '82 Mil @ '75 Cin
     
    '80 Royals 18, '74 Athletics 9
    '80 Phillies 8, '85 Cardinals 4
    '77 Yankees 4, '86 Mets 3
    '82 Brewers 9, '75 Reds 0
     
    '04 StL @ '98 NYY
    '04 Bos @ '88 Oak
    '95 Cle @ '05 CWS
    '03 Fla @ '01 Ari
     
    '98 Yankees 4, '04 Cardinals 1
    '04 Red Sox 4, '88 Athletics 2
    '95 Indians 8, '05 White Sox 5
    '03 Marlins 3, '01 Diamondbacks 1
     
    Day Five
     
    The following teams have advanced...
    '06 Chicago Cubs
    '24 Washington Senators
    '53 New York Yankees
    '39 New York Yankees
    '80 Kansas City Royals
    '77 New York Yankees
    '98 New York Yankees
     
    These games decide who advances.
     
    '19 Cin @ '21 NYG
    '29 PhA @ '27 NYY
    '41 Brk @ '62 SF
    '63 LAD @ '61 NYY
     
    '21 Giants 7, '19 Reds 6
    '29 Athletics 10, '27 Yankees 9
    '62 Giants 5, '41 Dodgers 2
    '61 Yankees 5, '63 Dodgers 3
     
    '80 Phi @ '85 StL
    '82 Mil @ '75 Cin
    '04 Bos @ '88 Oak
     
    '80 Phillies 3, '85 Cardinals 2 (12 Innings)
    '75 Reds 5, '82 Brewers 4
    '88 Athletics 3, '04 Red Sox 2
     
    '95 Cle @ '05 CWS
    '03 Fla @ '01 Ari
     
    '95 Indians 5, '05 White Sox 2
    '01 Diamondbacks 3, '03 Marlins 2
  5. EVIL~! alkeiper
    We have two brackets now, the winners' bracket and the losers' bracket. The games in the winners bracket determine who gets the first spot in the regional finals. While not as critical as the losers bracket, the losers in these games would need to win three straight to advance. The losers bracket is simply win or be eliminated. Results will be updated as the results occur.
     
    Winners' Bracket Matchups
    '34 StL @ '06 ChC
    '35 ChC @ '21 NYG
    '19 CWS @ '27 NYY
    '24 Was @ '12 NYG
     
    '06 Cubs 4, '34 Cardinals 0
    '21 Giants 2, '35 Cubs 1
    '27 Yankees 8, '19 White Sox 2
    '24 Senators 1, '12 Giants 0
     
    '57 Mil @ '53 NYY
    '41 Brk @ '62 SF
    '63 LA @ '61 NYY
    '40 Cin @ '39 NYY
     
    '53 Yankees 13, '57 Braves 5
    '62 Giants 4, '41 Dodgers 1
    '61 Yankees 4, '63 Dodgers 3
    '39 Yankees 7, '40 Reds 2
     
    '80 KC @ '74 Oak
    '85 StL @ '69 NYM
    '86 NYM @ '77 NYY
    '68 Det @ '75 Cin
     
    '80 Royals 6, '74 Athletics 3
    '85 Cardinals 7, '69 Mets 3
    '77 Yankees 5, '86 Mets 4
    '75 Reds 9, '68 Tigers 8
     
    '04 StL @ '98 NYY
    '04 Bos @ '88 Oak
    '05 CWS @ '95 Cle
    '03 Fla @ '01 Ari
     
    '98 Yankees 11, '04 Cardinals 3
    '88 Athletics 1, '04 Red Sox 0, 11 Innings
    Talk about a hard-luck outing for Curt Schilling. He pitched a ten inning no-hitter, but his Sox failed to score a run. The A's scored the winning run on an missed catch error by Trot Nixon that likely would've been a sac fly anyway.
    '05 White Sox 3, '95 Indians 1
    '01 Diamondbacks 7, '03 Marlins 6, 13 Innings
     
    Losers' Bracket Matchups
    '14 Bos(N) @ '32 NYY
    '19 Cin @ '12 Bos
    '07 Det @ '29 PhA
    '09 Pit @ '11 PhA
     
    '14 Braves 6, '32 Yankees 5
    '19 Reds 7, '12 Red Sox 5
    '29 Athletics 8, '07 Tigers 0
    '09 Pirates 4, '11 Athletics 3
     
    '50 Phi @ '54 Cle
    '55 Brk @ '46 StL
    '65 Min @ '46 Bos
    '59 CWS @ '35 Det
     
    '50 Phillies 8, '54 Indians 0
    '55 Dodgers 10, '46 Cardinals 2
    '46 Red Sox 9, '65 Twins 3
    '35 Tigers 5, '59 White Sox 4
     
    '67 Bos @ '84 Det
    '80 Phi @ '70 Balt
    '74 LA @ '79 Pit
    '82 Mil @ '67 StL
     
    '67 Red Sox 4, '84 Tigers 0
    '80 Phillies 5, '70 Orioles 0
    '79 Pirates 4, '74 Dodgers 3
    '82 Brewers 4, '67 Cardinals 3
     
    '94 Mon @ '02 Oak
    '01 Sea @ '92 Atl
    '02 SF @ '03 NYY
    '92 Tor @ '98 Atl
     
    '94 Expos 6, '02 Athletics 3
    '01 Mariners 5, '92 Braves 1
    '02 Giants 8, '03 Yankees 4
    '92 Blue Jays 11, '98 Braves 4
     
    Thankfully this is the last set of 32 games.
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