SilverPhoenix

So-Con time. It's late, but screw it. Dates: March 2nd - 5th Location: Charelston,SC at the North Charleston Coliseum TV: ESPN 2 @ 2PM Teams #3 Seed Vs. #5 Seed Roads to the Championship #3 Davidson Wildcats (17-10 (10-6) 101 RPI 166 SOS) Def #11 The Citadel 79-73 Def #2 Elon 65-58 #5 Chattanooga Mocs (18-12 (8-6) 172 RPI 204 RPI) Def #4 College of Chareleston 65-63 Def #8 Applachian State 78-75 Past Tournament Champions 1921 Kentucky 1922 North Carolina 1923 Mississippi State 1924 North Carolina 1925 North Carolina 1926 North Carolina 1927 Vanderbilt 1928 Mississippi 1929 North Carolina State 1930 Alabama 1931 Maryland 1932 Georgia 1933 South Carolina 1934 Washington & Lee 1935 North Carolina 1936 North Carolina 1937 Washington & Lee 1938 Duke 1939 Clemson 1940 North Carolina 1941 Duke 1942 Duke 1943 George Washington 1944 Duke 1945 North Carolina 1946 Duke 1947 North Carolina State 1948 North Carolina State 1949 North Carolina State 1950 North Carolina State 1951 North Carolina State 1952 North Carolina State 1953 Wake Forest 1954 George Washington 1955 West Virginia 1956 West Virginia 1957 West Virginia 1958 West Virginia 1959 West Virginia 1960 West Virginia 1961 George Washington 1962 West Virginia 1963 West Virginia 1964 VMI 1965 West Virginia 1966 Davidson 1967 West Virginia 1968 Davidson 1969 Davidson 1970 Davidson 1971 Furman 1972 East Carolina 1973 Furman 1974 Furman 1975 Furman 1976 VMI 1977 VMI 1978 Furman 1979 Appalachian State 1980 Furman 1981 Chattanooga 1982 Chattanooga 1983 Chattanooga 1984 Marshall 1985 Marshall 1986 Davidson 1987 Marshall 1988 Chattanooga 1989 East Tennessee State 1990 East Tennessee State 1991 East Tennessee State 1992 East Tennessee State 1993 Chattanooga 1994 Chattanooga 1995 Chattanooga 1996 Western Carolina 1997 Chattanooga 1998 Davidson 1999 College of Charleston 2000 Appalachian State 2001 UNC Greensboro 2002 Davidson 2003 East Tennessee State 2004 East Tennessee State 2005 Chattanooga

Agreed. I may be a Syracuse fan, but this team that is too young, too inexperienced and too dickless. I feel bad for Gerry, but the NIT would do wonders for this team.

Time for some more previews. I know I missed the Big South and OVC games, but I had to leave my house at 5:30 AM yesterday. I should catch the rest. First the Missouri Valley. Dates: March 2nd - 5th Location: St Louis, Missouri (Savvis Center) TV: CBS @ 2PM Teams #2 Seed Vs. #5 Seed Roads to the Championship #2 Southern Illinois Salukis (21-10 (12-6) RPI: 39 SOS:63) Def #7 Evansville 71 - 55 Def #6 Nothern Iowa 55 - 46 #5 Bradley (20-9 (11-7) RPI: 28 SOS: 58) Def #4 Creighton 54 - 47 Def #1 Witchta State 60 - 52 What is on the line? A lot is on the line besides a Conference Championship. Alot is on the line for a conference. The Valley has had a trememdous year. One of the best since the Louisville/Memphis State/Cinicnatti days. With 6 Teams between 21 - 41 in the RPI. There is talk of the Valley getting 6 Bids which is a record for any Major, Mid Major and Small Conference. However there is alot of talk that the Big 6 Conferences will still take most of the bids. In a year where the Valley has made its case in a good fashion. It'll be interesting to see what happens. Past Tournament Champions 1977 Southern Illinois 1978 Creighton 1979 Indiana State 1980 Bradley 1981 Creighton 1982 Tulsa 1983 Illinois State 1984 Tulsa 1985 Wichita State 1986 Tulsa 1987 Wichita State 1988 Bradley 1989 Creighton 1990 Illinois State 1991 Creighton 1992 Missouri State 1993 Southern Illinois 1994 Southern Illinois 1995 Southern Illinois 1996 Tulsa 1997 Illinois State 1998 Illinois State 1999 Creighton 2000 Creighton 2001 Indiana State 2002 Creighton 2003 Creighton 2004 Northern Iowa 2005 Creighton

http://www.newsobserver.com/content/multim...oachkommercial/ - I leave you all with this.

No way Duke or Uconn lose a One Seed. Nova wins tomorrow, they have theirs in hand too.

I know the way they won today was pretty fucked up, and they've lost Mensah-Bonsu but I don't see GW in the 3 position. At the 1 spots, I've got UConn, Duke, Villanova, and Memphis. For the 2's I have Gonzaga, GW, Ohio State, and Illinois. I'm probably fucking wrong though. GW deserves to be a 2. They look like a 2 to me. But they won't get it unless the committee is feeling really generous. My Top 4 Seeds for each region are 1 Seeds UConn Villanova Duke Ohio State (Interchange Memphis and Texas if things go their way 2 Seeds Memphis Texas Illinois Gonzaga 3 Seeds Tenn UNC (They could go up easily) GW LSU 4 Seeds Pitt WVU BC UCLA

Duke would be sporting a 24 - 6 Record if they were in the Big East, but they're not so there goes that fantasy. With that said. I'm very impressed with UNC, I knew they would be getting better as the season ended, but I'm shocked that they're this good. I really feel sorry for the ACC and Division I Ball as a whole if UNC retains their core for 2007. They along with Memphis are probably going to be the best 2 teams in College Ball. My only fear for UNC is them running out of their spark and losing horribly in the ACC Touranment. Escpecially if they do go up aganist Duke again....That game may cause Hansborough to have nightmares. My thing is...Redick is pissing away his John Wooden Award to Adam Morrision...He is looking fucking lousy lately, and from what I saw of the UNC game...he's not looking like the player of the year. The last thing that Duke needs is to run into a team like a Pitt, UCLA or Georgetown yet again, and have Redick not shooting well. Only bad things will happen. Oh as for Florida...they stand to be the biggest loser of them all. This was a 1 seed going into Janurary, and their tanking job may put them on the 6/7 line. Escpecially if Kentucky beats them. As it stands today, the only SEC team worth a damn is LSU, and even they're first round upset bait on the wrong night.

And Championship Week officially begins tomorrow as 3 Automatic Bids will be decided tomorrow in the Big South, Atlantic Sun and Ohio Valley Conferences. For your view pleasure, I give you a preview of the Big South, Atlantic Sun and Ohio Valley Championship Games. First the Atlantic Sun. Dates: March 2nd - 4th Locations: Johnson City, Tennesee (Hosted by Eastern Tenneesee State University) TV: ESPN2 @ 2 PM Teams: #1 Seed Vs. #2 Seed Lipscomb Bison 21 - 9 (15 - 5 Atlantic Sun) Belmont Bruins 19 - 10 (15 - 5 Atlantic Sun) Roads to get to Championship Lipscomb #1 Lipscomb Def. #8 Mercer 78 - 62 #1 Lipscomb Def. #4 Gardner-Webb 70 - 51 Belmont #2 Belmont Def. #7 Campbel 90 - 76 #2 Belmont Def. #6 Stetson 72 - 59 What's on the Line This is a Small Conference here peeps, and it all comes down to this game. One team makes it to the NCAA Tournament, and if Belmont loses its season is pretty much over. Even the new NIT rules allowing each Regular Season Champion who doesn't make it into the dance a spot in the NIT only applies if Lipscomb should lose this game. For these teams it's all about making it, and possibly being able to win a game in the tournament. Past Champions 2005: Central Florida 2004: Central Florida 2003: Troy 2002: Florida Atlantic 2001: Georgia State 2000: Samford 1999: Samford 1998: College of Charleston 1997: College of Charleston 1996: Central Florida 1995: Florida International 1994: Central Florida 1993: No Tournament was held this year and Florida International was declared the Champion by its Regular Season Record 1992: Georgia Southern 1991: Georgia State 1990: Arkansas-Little Rock 1989: Arkansas-Little Rock 1988: Texas-San Antonio 1987: Georgia Southern 1986: Arkansas-Little Rock 1985: Mercer 1984: Houston Baptist University 1983: Georgia Southern 1982: Lousiana-Monroe/Northern Louisana 1981: Louisana-Monroe/Northern Louisana 1980: Centary 1979: Louisana Monroe/Northern Louisana

Like I said...West Virginia is out there, but stranger things have happened, and that happening wouldn't surprise me at all. As for the realism of it, yeah it is quite the stretch, and in all honesty shouldn't happen, escpecially with the Marshall loss. And oh...I think we have to take Pitt of that list now too. They just lost to Seton Hall, who has effectively put themselves in near-bulletproof category

With all respect to your opinion Leena, I'm going to have to disagree, here. Here is my lineup in order of sucession with explanations Ohio State Memphis Texas Illinois Gonzaga West Virginia/Pittsburgh Ohio State: Looks geared to win the Big 10 regular season outright barring a loss tomorrow. Should they do that and win the Big 10 Tournament, the committee is going to look very favorably on this team, and probably will give them the one seed. Memphis: If this were a fair process then Memphis would still be the 4th number 1 seed as UAB shouldn't be such a bad loss that it takes them off this perch. Then you realize that when you count all of Memphis detractors in the media and probably in the commitee themselves, this is the loss that they've been waiting for. Even if Memphis were to win its next 4 games, their one seed may be taken away by the team below or above them. Texas: In all reality they should be elimated from this discussion as 4 of their 5 losses have made this team look like complete crap. I'm sorry but getting blown out by OK State (yes, there is a pun here) does not make you good for a 1 seed. However, our friends at ESPN and the media at large have been hyping this team as their champion to take away the 1 seed from Memphis. The Texas A&M loss should've elminated the Longhorns from this discussion, but winning their next 4 Games is going to give the committee all the excuse it needs. Illinois: This is where you start getting into unrealistic, but possible territory. By the RPI the Big 10 is the best conference in America by .48 percentage points...winning this conference becomes a big deal, escpecially if Ohio State loses on Saturday and they win the following day. CBS would love nothing more than to hype up a meeting between these teams for a possbile placement as the final 1 seed. Gonzaga: Everyone else has to start losing and they have to win the WCC. And it still may not be enough. West Va/Pitt: Here are your two Washington types folks. Pitt is definetely more realsitic than West Va due to the job to Marshall that the latter did so masterfully. But you have to think about this scenario. Going into the Big East Tournament. UConn is the 1 Seed Villanova is the 2 Seed West Va is the 3 Seed Pitt is the 4th Seed UConn and Nova are 1 seed locks should they win their next 2 Games (which shouldn't be too much of a problem) and most likely, they already are. And coming into March Madness...the only bigger win you can get is Duke. Imagine if West Va or Pitt beats them both in 2 consecutive nights? That would be the cherry on top, and the selection committee will jump on it. Escpecially if Ohio State, Illinois, Texas and lose in their tourneys. And Memphis no matter what it does. As for the teams that I eliminated from the discussion, IMHO. UNC: Too tall of a order for too young of a team. If they should somehow beat Duke tomorrow, then they can enter the discussion, till then....nope GW: Numbers doom this team. The committee is not giving team who couldn't get into the upper 50% of OOC scheduleing a 1 seed. UCLA: Does anyone take UCLA seriously as a top 4 seed, much less a 1? BC: 4 Words...Virginia and Georgia Tech. They lost to them.

Yeah, Memphis may have just screwed the pooch. Ohio State is ready to make its big assualt on the final 1 seed, and Memphis may not be able to hold it off, no matter what it does. Hell Gonzaga, Illinois and even Pittsburgh may all be geared to do so as well.

Cabbage: Hofstra's biggest nooze is its OOC SOS which is better than a partly 45 teams at least. Plus Stokes is not going to be 100%, and they will have a very dangerous VCU who needs to win the tournament to get in. Hofstra could be ripe for the upset Bradley has a signature win over Northern Iowa, but the Valley is not getting 6 Teams in. Someone is going to get knocked out. Bradley is the most suspect team.

Tell that to CBS Sportsline. Being the SEC Homers that some of them are, one of the idiots put Tennesse as the third number 1 seed over UConn (who was their number 2) after UConn lost to Villanova. Personally, I would never consider them for a 1 (had they kept the ball rolling they would've been a 2) but if anyone has seen me ever post about the SEC they will know this for a fact... I am one of the biggest detractors of SEC Basketball you'll ever see. The reason for this is their collective attitude towards the sport (save Kentucky, Florida and when they're winning, Tenneesee) is nothing but acceptive disdain, not to mention that their teams are usually nothing but overrated trash. Not to mention that almost SEC game I've had the misfourtine of seeing this year has made wanna kill things. If it were up to them, Basketball would be the 4th most important sport behind Football, Spring Football and Baseball. And yes, I have none of them going beyond the Sweet 16, if that. If UAB wins this, you gotta count them in the tournament. How many bubbles do you think could burst because of a small C-USA school from Alabama? Well for starters...since Florida State and Kentucky are now safely in (one is a big question mark as to whether they deserve, but Duke is god... so...) and Texas A&M may get in while leaving teams who played better schedules and are just plain better, out. UAB should it win potenially bursts these bubbles. Utah State Houston UTEP Hofstra Bradley Maryland Colorado Western Kentucky and Wisconsin-Milwaukee really have to win their conference tournaments now The Mountain West is going to be a one-bid conference for the first time in its history. Bucknell may have to sweat that much more.

Big game right now. Biggest game for CUSA of the year by the far. It's UAB Vs. #3 Memphis There is ALOT on the line tonight. For Memphis they're defending a 1 seed that everyone wants to take away. For UAB they're looking for signature win in a year where their conference blows ass. They're fighting for an At-Large bid that everyone else wants. For a whole bunch of bubble teams. This game may make or burst bubbles. Needless to say, everyone is interested in this game.

Tell that to CBS Sportsline. Being the SEC Homers that some of them are, one of the idiots put Tennesse as the third number 1 seed over UConn (who was their number 2) after UConn lost to Villanova. Personally, I would never consider them for a 1 (had they kept the ball rolling they would've been a 2) but if anyone has seen me ever post about the SEC they will know this for a fact... I am one of the biggest detractors of SEC Basketball you'll ever see. The reason for this is their collective attitude towards the sport (save Kentucky, Florida and when they're winning, Tenneesee) is nothing but acceptive disdain, not to mention that their teams are usually nothing but overrated trash. Not to mention that almost SEC game I've had the misfourtine of seeing this year has made wanna kill things. If it were up to them, Basketball would be the 4th most important sport behind Football, Spring Football and Baseball. And yes, I have none of them going beyond the Sweet 16, if that. (And yes I am a Big East Lover/Homer...I hate the SEC by association.) Naiwf: Beats me, but this full circle crap is overkill. I do not wanna have 3 channels covering this game, when I could see Conference Tournament Games (*coughCAAQuaterfinalsandMissouriValleySemifinalscough*) in its place. I am hoping they plan on doing it for the Big East Championship Game next week.

Flair, I've said it before and I'll say it again...George Washington is my sleeper team, and have the potential to do major damage in the tourney. And since their OOC SOS is a POS (it's not all their fault though, depending on who you talk to, they were denied many one for one deals by power schools and even top majors and mid majors. And they were denied one shots by these teams too.) they're going to get a lower seed (4-6) then they really are. They get to the Regionals...some poor #1 seed may get literally ran off the court.

This article describes perfectly what happened tonight to the majors/mid-majors that are on the bubble. http://cbs.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/story/9277077

It's not going to be over Villanova. Barring a loss at Cuse and a disastrious loss at the BE Tourney, Nova has it wrapped up. The talk will be whether they should bump Memphis or not for the final #1. If you've been watching ESPN, Digger and Bilas less so have been unofficially waging a war aganist whether Memphis should be one of the Top seeds, and the overall shityness of Conference-USA is not helping it all. Right now C-USA is ranked 13 or 17th and the Big 10 is number 1 RPI wise (and number 2 in the minds of America). There could be a sense of entitlement to Ohio State should it Win the Big 10 outright. But lets compare some critical numbers between Memphis and Ohio State as of right now. Memphis Record (Includes Division I Competition only for wins): 26 - 2 Conference Record: 12 - 0 OOC Record 14 - 2 Last 10 Games: 10 - 0 RPI (Official NCAA RPI/Warren Nolan RPI/ESPN RPI/Real Time RPI): 6/6/6/6 Conference RPI (Warren Nolan/Real Time RPI): 14/17 Overall SOS (Warren Nolan/ESPN/Real Time): 53/42/71 OOC SOS (ESPN): 2 Record Broken Down by RPI: 1 - 25: 2 - 2 26 - 50: 3 - 0 51 - 100: 5 - 0 101 - 200: 6 - 0 200+: 10 - 0 Ohio State Record (Includes Division I Competition only for wins): 22 - 4 Conference Record: 11 - 4 OOC Record 11 - 0 Last 10 Games: 8 - 2 RPI (Official NCAA RPI/Warren Nolan RPI/ESPN RPI/Real Time RPI): 5/4/5/4 Conference RPI (Warren Nolan/Real Time RPI): 1/1 Overall SOS (Warren Nolan/ESPN/Real Time): 22/21/22 OOC SOS (ESPN): 87 Record Broken Down by RPI: 1 - 25: 4 - 3 26 - 50: 3 - 1 51 - 100: 5 - 0 101 - 200: 6 - 0 200+: 4 - 0 So comparing the two you have Record Advantage: Memphis Last 10 Game Advantage: Memphis (Though Ohio State has faced much better competition.) RPI Advantage: Ohio State Conference Rank Advantage: Ohio State Overall SOS Advantage: Ohio State OOC Advantage: Memphis by a HUGE margin. When you add those 6 factors together their profiles seem similar. However Memphis played a much harder OOC schedule and is being bought down by C-USA itself, while Ohio State is being bought up by the Big 10 Revival that has happened this year. And again CUSA is a team's enemy. In fact CUSA's RPI rank being propped up by its 4 Teams. If Memphis went to the Big East, then this conference would be in the upper teens. And if UTEP, Houston, and UAB all went elsewhere...the winner of this conference may end up in the play-in game. Folks...this is the new CUSA...Memphis better pray that it gets better or that it gets Big East Invite.

Hello to the NCAA's Florida State and Kentucky barring a disaster and Texas A & M has just helped its chances. Goodbye Hofstra, Utah State, Air Force/San Diego State and pretty much UAB's chances for an at large barring a miracle. Texas may have just kissed a 1 seed goodbye and Tennesse just did as well. Now we begin the bullshit talk of Ohio State getting a 1. And god, the selection committee better not even dare.

What I loved, was how Dick Vitale was pissed off and acting like Duke was screwed over, by the fans rushing the court screwed Duke over. At first I though they were going to call the game and end it at that. Then I realized Duke was playing. Still that was plain retarded...Thankfully they had a foul shot and were up by 5. Imagine if they were up by just 1 and did that....they would've looked fucking stupid.

They rushed the court before the game is over. Coack K is pissed off!

I'm guessing someone sent Florida State my memo, cause they're tied with Duke 72 all with 1:17 left.

Vandy I disagree with being a bubble team. To their credit, they do have 5 Wins aganist the Top 100 RPI and have a Top 40 Overall SOS. However they have numbers that affect them negativily. Their Out of Conference SOS is in the 180s, they have 8 losses in the top 100 RPI to go aganist their 5 wins and have two bad losses in Georgia Tech and Georga, they're not likely to finish with a winning record, and their RPI is above 60. Those things do not bode well. In fact I'll be honest here too...I don't think California should get in either. But everyone is determined to shoe horn them in. In fact on Sunday when i do this again. They're going to be major explanations as to why I placed who where on my list. Cause Cali shouldn't be in this if I'm projecting UAB to be out unless they beat Memphis. I do agree with Kentucky, but they're on my C-List for a reason...they don't deserve it right now. And Bucknell, I think they just need to get to the final of their Conference tournament, but I do see your point...The tournament is their backyard the whole damn time.....You really can't justify them losing at all.

Well, and now it is time for SilverPhoenix's first "Tournament" Field Model. Up until the tournament I will be updating at these intervals. 3/01: First Update 3/05 3/07 From 3/08 I will be updating daily with my final 65 teams revealed about 1 Hour or so before the selection show. With that said. Lets get started. First We're going to deal with the Teams that are already in the tournament and have an at large bid in the mail. These teams have nothing left to prove and even if they've won their last game they are in the tournament. In a word, Bulletproof. Bulletproof/Locks (in Conference Alphabetical Order) (27) ACC: Boston College, Duke, North Carolina, NC State Atlantic 10: George Washington* Big East: UConn, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia Big Ten: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin Big 12: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Conference USA: Memphis* Missouri Valley: Wichita State Pacific 10: UCLA, Washington SEC: Florida, Tennesee, LSU WCC: Gonzaga* WAC: Nevada* Now we are going to deal with the 15 leauges that are going to get only one team in no matter what happens in their conference tournaments. In other words some one seeds will be heading to the NIT. America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-American, Mid-Continent, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland and the SWAC. So this means 42 bids are already spoken for with 23 being fought for. Now we deal with the teams on the bubble, and not all bubbles are created equal, in fact there 5 levels of bubble for this prediction model and they go from S - D (Note: 26 Leauges that have bulletproof reps, or tourney or bust (one bid). The leauges with the Asteriks along with 5 other leauges are X-Factor Leauges that have the potential to eat up bids should their 1 seeds lose in the conference tournament. Should they lose, the C and D-Listers will be greatly affected. As of now those that are in X-Factor Leauges and are 1 Seeds are B-Listers and above and will either rise or fall with performance. The Leauges are as follows... Atlantic 10 Colonial Conference USA Horizon Mountain West Sun Belt Patriot Leauge WCC WAC These are the leauges that may burst the bubble of others. And may be the ones who are in true control of the tournament field) S List: Near-Bulletproof. Barring a major disaster loss to someone in the bottom 100 of the RPI, or the team dropping dead, these teams are in by proxy. Usually they need to win one more game to move from the S-List to the Bulletproof one. A List: Teams that are most likely going to get a bid and usually needs one or two more winnable games to jump the S-List into the Bulletproof List. What seperates them from the S List is a bad loss, a lower RPI or/and SOS, their record or their last 10 game record. Barring pulling a Maryland or Norte Dame last year, they're in B List: Teams that have a little bit more work to do as far getting a bid is concerned. These are usually solid teams that need a couple more wins or others to fall to secure their place in the bracket. These teams are in complete control of destines, and it is up to them to seize the moment. C List: The edge of the overall bubble. Just above the danger zone. This level of the bubble is basically your last 4 - 5 Teams in at this point. There is no security here, you have to win to move up, losing can mean a fall beyond the D-List into the NIT. And even then you don't control your own destiny. The X-Factor leagues may cause bubbles to be burst. D List: The point of no return on the Bubble. These teams are on the edge of the bubble just waiting for it to burst. These are teams that as of now are out of the tournament and have next to no margin of error should they want to make the tournament, they have to go on a run and lose in their respective championship games or win outright. With all of that explained lets begin forming the bubble. S-List/Near Bulletproof Michigan Creighton George Mason Bucknell Northern Iowa A-List/In Barring Nuclear Fallout Syracuse Cincinatti Arizona Alabama (As much as it pains me) Coloroado Indiana (Michgan State win did wonders) Missouri State B-List/Control of their own Destiny Arkansas California Seton Hall Bradley Western Kentucky Wisconsin-Milwaukee San Diego State C-List/Danger Zone/Final Four teams in Southern Illinois Kentucky UNC Willimington Missouri State D-List/Point of no Return/Work to do/Pray Hofstra (Has gotta make it as far or further than UNCW. If the Final is between them...It may be a total elimination game) Utah State (Got to win its final 2 Games and make it to the Final WAC Tournament) Air Force (Has to finish strong or win outright) Maryland (Has to find a way to win 3 - 5 games in the next 11 Days) UAB (Needs to win at Memphis or it's most likely going to have to win the CUSA Tournament at Memphis) Houston (Pray) Florida State (gotta beat Duke) Texas A & M (Needs to make a run and now) Louisville (Has to make the tournament and make a run to the Big East Championship Game) And that is the conclusion of this outlook. Comments, Questions and Death Threats welcome.

It depends on how you look at it though. This year there are no truly "really great, this team is going to the Final 4" teams this year. What you have in their places are - 3 really good teams that have the best shot at winning the national title (Duke, Villanova and UConn) - About 9 very good teams that have a great shot at getting to the Final 4 depending on the night the team is having (Texas, Gonzaga, Illinois, Ohio State, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Memphis, George Washington and a few others that could rise up to this level by March 12th (NC or NC State in particular) ) However even these 12 teams are not unbeatable by any stretch of the imagination. Each one of these teams has their flaws and shortcomings that can result in an early exit. Each of these teams are beatable, and have shown stretches of extreme vulnerability. What you have below that are a bunch of good, capable teams (and quite a few of these in the Mid Majors) that can compete with almost anyone on any night, and that can do damage in the tournament. One thing is for sure...don't expect the Sweet 16, Elite 8 and possibly the Final 4 to have all the usual suspects. Someone out of left field is going to crash the party.