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Tim Raines - Leftfielder Montreal Expos 1979-1990, 2001 Chicago White Sox 1991-1995 New York Yankees 1996-1998 Oakland Athletics 1999 Baltimore Orioles 2001 Florida Marlins 2002 Awards 1986 N.L. Silver Slugger - OF 1987 All-Star Game MVP All-Star Selections: 7 (1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987) League Leader 1981: Stolen Bases 1982: Stolen Bases 1983: Runs, Stolen Bases 1984: Doubles, Stolen Bases 1986: Batting Average, OBP, Runs Created 1987: Runs Career Ranks Games: 48th Runs: 46th Hits: 68th TB: 100th BB: 33rd SB: 5th RC: 51st Best Performance April 18, 1994 - Chicago at Boston Hit three homeruns against the Red Sox. Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Batting - 20 (105) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 114 (176) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 46.8 (91) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 90.0 (175) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: 5 (Lou Brock, Max Carey, Fred Clarke, Harry Hooper, Enos Slaughter) Other Similar Batters: Kenny Lofton, Willie Davis, Jimmy Ryan, Jose Cruz, Julio Franco Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1979: 0/0.0 1980: 0/0.1 1981: 18/5.6 1982: 21/5.5 1983: 29/9.1 1984: 32/9.0 1985: 36/11.8 1986: 32/9.9 1987: 34/10.3 1988: 19/6.4 1989: 25/8.1 1990: 19/5.1 1991: 19/6.5 1992: 28/10.2 1993: 19/5.9 1994: 14/4.6 1995: 14/4.8 1996: 7/2.1 1997: 9/3.3 1998: 11/3.3 1999: 1/0.6 2001: 3/1.4 2002: 0/0.1 Career Win Shares: 390 Career WARP3: 123.9 My Stupid Opinion Second greatest lead off hitter of all-time who should be a slam dunk, first ballot Hall of Famer this year but won't be. In The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, which was published in 2001 right near the end of Raines' career, James ranked Raines as the 8th best leftfielder of all-time behind Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, Carl Yastrzemski, Joe Jackson, and Al Simmons. You could make a legitimate argument that from 1985 to 1987 Raines was the MVP of the National League each season yet he failed to crack the Top 5 in the writer's vote in those years. Playing his prime years in Montreal and being overshadowed by Henderson certainly hurt the national media's perception of him. Maybe also hurt by that he probably hung around a few years longer than he should have but he'd hardly be the first HOF to do that. The very small sample of writer ballots that have become public are at least semi-encouraging as it appears he'll probably end up on between 30-40% of the ballots which isn't bad for someone the writers don't view as a first ballot HOF.

David Justice - Rightfielder Atlanta Braves 1989-1996 Cleveland Indians 1997-2000 New York Yankees 2000-2001 Oakland Athletics 2002 Awards 1990 N.L. Rookie of the Year 1993 N.L. Silver Slugger - OF 1997 N.L. Silver Slugger - OF 2000 ALCS MVP All-Star Selections: 3 (1993, 1994, 1997) League Leader None Career Ranks SLG%: 90th OPS: 95th HR/AB: 73rd Best Performance May 7, 1999 - Cleveland at Tampa Bay Went 4 for 4 with two homeruns, four runs scored, and five RBI. Hall of Fame Stats Gray Ink: Batting - 43 (564) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 28.7 (309) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 43.5 (416) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: 1 (Larry Doby) Other Similar Batters: Tim Salmon, Ryan Klesko, Rudy York, Kent Hrbek, Greg Luzinski, Jeromy Burnitz, Darryl Strawberry, Roy Sievers, Mo Vaughn Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1989: 0/0.1 1990: 20/4.5 1991: 22/6.0 1992: 23/8.0 1993: 29/8.5 1994: 19/7.5 1995: 19/5.5 1996: 7/2.7 1997: 26/7.6 1998: 13/4.8 1999: 16/4.8 2000: 20/7.5 2001: 8/2.6 2002: 11/3.5 Career Win Shares: 233 Career WARP3: 73.6 My Stupid Opinion Good hitter who could rarely stay healthy an entire season. He managed to play over 150 games in a season only once in his career, which also happened to be his best year in 1993. His career does prove that postseason experience doesn't mean shit when it actually comes to playing the postseason as he played in 112 postseason games but hit only .224/.335/.382. He did fuck Halle Berry but he's not close to being borderline candidate where such a feat can be considered.

Chuck Knoblauch - Second Baseman Minnesota Twins 1991-1997 New York Yankees 1998-2001 Kansas City Royals 2002 Awards 1991 A.L. Rookie of the Year 1995 A.L. Silver Slugger - 2B 1997 A.L. Gold Glove - 2B 1997 A.L. Silver Slugger - 2B All-Star Selections: 4 (1992, 1994, 1996, 1997) League Leader 1994: Doubles 1996: Triples Career Ranks SB: 63rd Best Performance July 30, 1999 - New York at Boston Went 5 for 6 with a double, homerun, and 4 RBI against the Red Sox. Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Batting - 3 (503) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 67 (360) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 33.8 (209) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 66.5 (275) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: 1 (Lou Boudreau) Other Similar Batters: Eric Young, Jason Kendall, Edgar Renteria, Mark Grudzielanek, Larry Doyle, Alvin Dark, Dave Lopes, Pete Runnels, Delino DeShields Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1991: 20/5.8 1992: 23/7.8 1993: 16/4.5 1994: 20/6.3 1995: 27/9.9 1996: 32/11.1 1997: 23/7.6 1998: 22/8.5 1999: 25/7.1 2000: 10/2.5 2001: 11/3.0 2002: 2/0.0 Career Win Shares: 230 Career WARP3: 74.2 My Stupid Opinion Very good player during the 90's but by age 32 he was already washed up. Had a very good knowledge of the strikezone as the majority of his years he had more walks than strikeouts. His Gold Glove in 1997 was largely undeserved as he was above average at his best and then became very poor a couple of years later when he developed a mental block when it came throwing to first base. Having that happen to you while you are playing for the Yankees just magnified the problem and his offensive numbers would begin their downward spiral the following year.

Brady Anderson - Outfielder Boston Red Sox 1988 Baltimore Orioles 1988-2001 Cleveland Indians 2002 Awards None All-Star Selections: 3 (1992, 1996, 1997) League Leader 1996: Extra Base Hits Career Ranks None of note Best Performance August 7, 1998 - Baltimore at Minnesota Career high five hits which included two homeruns and two doubles. Hall of Fame Stats Gray Ink: Batting - 37 (643) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 26.1 (376) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 38.0 (473) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: None Top 10 Similar Batters: Johnny Callison, Devon White, Rick Monday, Roy White, Lloyd Moseby, Chet Lemon, Claudell Washington, Jimmy Wynn, Ray Lankford, Amos Otis Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1988: 3/1.4 1989: 7/2.1 1990: 7/3.0 1991: 6/1.8 1992: 29/11.3 1993: 18/6.4 1994: 12/6.2 1995: 19/6.6 1996: 28/10.0 1997: 26/7.2 1998: 13/4.4 1999: 23/8.8 2000: 15/5.4 2001: 8/2.4 2002: 0/0.2 Career Win Shares: 214 Career WARP3: 77.3 My Stupid Opinion A bit of a late bloomer as his breakout year didn't come until age 28 as to that point he looked like he might be a bust. Will always be remembered for being the least likely player ever to hit 50 homeruns. He's the only player in MLB history to hit 50 homeruns in one season without having a 30+ homerun season at any other point in his career (not counting Prince Fielder). Interesting enough his breakout year of '92 is ranked as being better than his '96 season by both Win Shares and WARP. I'm guessing it has to do with his 53 stolen bases that year and I think he was probably a much better defensive outfielder at that point. Also in 1996 everyone seemed to be hitting 50 homeruns so his year doesn't really standout. Not as good as what his similar batters show as Wynn and Otis in particular were much better players.

Chuck Finley - Starting Pitcher California/Anaheim Angels 1986-1999 Cleveland Indians 2000-2002 St. Louis Cardinals 2002 Awards None All-Star Selections: 5 (1989, 1990, 1995, 1996, 2000) League Leader 1993: Complete Games 1994: Innings Career Ranks K: 23rd K/9: 55th Best Performance May 23, 1995 - New York at California Matches his career high 15 strikeotus while two hitting the Yankees in Mariano Rivera's MLB debut. Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Pitching - 6 (363) (Average HOFer ≈ 40) Gray Ink: Pitching - 156 (86) (Average HOFer ≈ 185) HOF Standards: Pitching - 27.0 (170) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Pitching - 53.5 (230) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Pitchers in HOF: None Top 10 Similar Pitchers: Mark Langston, Mike Torrez, Vida Blue, Doyle Alexander, Mickey Lolich, Fernando Valenzuela, Curt Simmons, Billy Pierce, Orel Hershiser, Joe Bush Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1986: 4/1.8 1987: 3/1.7 1988: 8/4.1 1989: 19/7.0 1990: 23/9.6 1991: 14/5.9 1992: 11/4.1 1993: 19/8.4 1994: 14/7.1 1995: 12/6.5 1996: 16/8.7 1997: 11/4.8 1998: 17/7.2 1999: 14/5.7 2000: 16/7.7 2001: 3/1.9 2002: 9/4.9 Career Win Shares: 213 Career WARP3: 97.0 My Stupid Opinion Although it might not be saying much, Finley is probably the second best first ballot player this year. Was an extremely durable pitcher as in his 15 years as a starter he pitched more than 180 innings in 13 of them. Probably was a tad underrated as the Angels were rarely contenders during his career. Ranks in the Top 30 all-time in strikeouts but also ranks in the Top 30 all-time in walks. In the end though he'll end probably be remembered best for getting his ass kicked by his then wife Tawny Kitaen.

Travis Fryman - Third Baseman Detroit Tigers 1990-1997 Cleveland Indians 1998-2002 Awards 1992 A.L. Silver Slugger - SS 2000 A.L. Gold Glove - 3B All-Star Selections: 5 (1992, 1993, 1994, 1996, 2000) League Leader None of note Career Ranks None of note Best Performance July 28, 1993 - New York at Detroit Hit for the cycle (5 for 5, 4 RBI) although in a losing effort against the Yankees. Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Batting - 2 (582) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 20 (991) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 26.4 (371) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 36.0 (491) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: None Top 10 Similar Batters: Ken Caminiti, Bret Boone, Vern Stephens, Miguel Tejada, Larry Parrish, Benito Santiago, Doug DeCinces, Gus Bell, Richie Hebner, Bobby Grich Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1990: 8/3.6 1991: 17/4.3 1992: 19/9.0 1993: 28/9.7 1994: 15/6.4 1995: 19/9.4 1996: 17/8.1 1997: 17/7.8 1998: 18/6.6 1999: 7/1.8 2000: 22/6.8 2001: 5/0.1 2002: 7/0.8 Career Win Shares: 198 Career WARP3: 74.4 My Stupid Opinion He was to be the heir apparent to Alan Trammell at shortstop in Detroit but eventually ended up at hot the corner where he became a very good defensive third baseman. Outside of an outstanding 1993 season at age 24 he never quite became the offensive threat some thought he would be but was a very solid, consistent performer through out the decade. Nagging injuries cut his career short at age 33.

Shawon Dunston - Shortstop Chicago Cubs 1985-1995, 1997 San Francisco Giants 1996, 1998, 2001-2002 Pittsburgh Pirates 1997 Cleveland Indians 1998 St. Louis Cardinals 1999, 2000 New York Mets 1999 Awards None All-Star Selections: 2 (1988, 1990) League Leader None Career Ranks None of note Best Performance June 4, 1989 - Chicago at St. Louis Hit two homeruns and a triple in a rout of the Cardinals. Hall of Fame Stats Gray Ink: Batting - 6 (1622) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 16.9 (835) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 14.0 (950) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Batters in HOF: None Top 10 Similar Batters: Jim Fregosi, Juan Samuel, Terry Steinbach, Carlos Baerga, Phil Garner, Greg Gagne, Bill Freehan, Granny Hamner, Hubie Brooks, Daimon Easley Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1985: 8/3.2 1986: 14/4.7 1987: 5/2.2 1988: 13/5.2 1989: 18/6.1 1990: 15/3.6 1991: 14/4.1 1992: 1/0.6 1993: 1/0.2 1994: 8/2.5 1995: 16/4.9 1996: 8/3.4 1997: 11/3.7 1998: 3/0.1 1999: 8/1.8 2000: 4/1.2 2001: 4/1.7 2002: 0/-0.8 Career Win Shares: 151 Career WARP3: 48.3 My Stupid Opinion Gives Todd Stottlemyre a run for his money for the weakest player on the ballot honors. Decent player in the late 80's and early 90's but back surgery basically wiped out two seasons for him in 1992 and 1993. Had decent power for a shortstop but never saw a pitch he didn't like (.296 career OBP, 203 walks in 6276 plate appearances) and was a mediocre defensive shortstop. He lasted 18 years but the second half of his career was as a utility player and clubs loved his "veteran presence", especially the Giants.

Jose Rijo - Starting Pitcher New York Yankees 1984 Oakland Athletics 1985-1987 Cincinnati Reds 1988-1995, 2001-2002 Awards 1990 World Series MVP All-Star Selections: 1 (1994) League Leader 1991: W/L Pct., WHIP 1993: Strikeouts, K/9 Career Ranks K/9: 34th K/BB: 90th Best Performance September 25, 1993 - Cincinnati at Colorado Pitched a complete game, one hitter in Mile High Stadium with a Charlie Hayes single in the 2nd being the only hit. Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Pitching - 9 (250) (Average HOFer ≈ 40) Gray Ink: Pitching - 93 (228) (Average HOFer ≈ 185) HOF Standards: Pitching - 20.0 (289) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Pitching - 28.0 (446) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Pitchers in HOF: None Top 10 Similar Pitchers: Sid Fernandez, Bruce Kison, Gary Peters, Ray Culp, Bob Veale, Bob Ojeda, Mike Scott, Don Wilson, Sonny Siebert, Joe Horlen Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1984: 1/0.8 1985: 4/2.3 1986: 5/2.2 1987: 0/0.0 1988: 15/6.3 1989: 9/3.8 1990: 17/6.4 1991: 17/6.9 1992: 19/7.6 1993: 26/11.5 1994: 11/6.1 1995: 4/1.8 2001: 2/0.3 2002: 2/1.1 Career Win Shares: 132 Career WARP3: 57.1 My Stupid Opinion This is Rijo's second different appearance on the HOF ballot as he was also on the 2001 ballot (received just one vote) but he made a comeback with the Reds later that year. Very good pitcher in the early 90's including a Cy Young caliber year in 1993 but the 257 innings he pitched that season probably did in him as his elbow was never the same. Ended up having four different Tommy John surgeries so he belongs in the infirmary wing of the HOF.

Robb Nen - Closer Texas Rangers 1993 Florida Marlins 1993-1997 San Francisco Giants 1998-2002 Awards None All-Star Selections: 3 (1998, 1999, 2002) League Leader 2001: Saves Career Ranks Saves: 15th Best Performance October 26, 1997 - Cleveland at Florida In Game 7 of the 1997 World Series, with the Marlins down a run he comes into the top of the 9th with runners at the corners and one out and gets the Marlins out of the jam who then tie the game in the bottom of the inning. He proceeds to strikeout the side in the 10th (Omar Vizquel, Manny Ramirez, David Justice) as the Marlins win the Series in the 11th. Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Pitching - 3 (541) (Average HOFer ≈ 40) Gray Ink: Pitching - 24 (925) (Average HOFer ≈ 185) HOF Standards: Pitching - 15.0 (471) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Pitching - 92.0 (112) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Pitchers in HOF: 1 (Bruce Sutter) Other Similar Pitchers: John Wetteland, Tom Henke, Troy Percival, Jeff Montgomery, Todd Worrell, Armando Benitez, Rod Beck, Ugueth Urbina, Jason Isringhausen Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP3) 1993: 0/-0.2 1994: 11/5.4 1995: 8/4.4 1996: 19/6.4 1997: 11/4.1 1998: 19/8.9 1999: 8/4.1 2000: 15/7.5 2001: 14/6.3 2002: 15/7.0 Career Win Shares: 120 Caeer WARP3: 53.9 My Stupid Opinion Anyone else feeling old by the fact that someone who debuted in 1993 is already on a HOF ballot? Nen's career was cut short by a torn rotator cuff and his last appearance happened to come in the 2002 World Series. He was similar to undeserving HOF closer Bruce Sutter in that they both had short careers but were dominate in their roles while they were active. The big difference between the two is Sutter pitched in the pre-Dennis Eckersley era of closers as he threw 327 1/3 more innings than Nen in only 18 more games pitched. Given that HOF voters are more open to closers getting in now and the "heroic" nature of him pitching in the '02 World Series with his shoulder being mush I wouldn't be surprised if he received the necessary 5% to stay on the ballot.

Todd Stottlemyre- Starting Pitcher Toronto Blue Jays 1988-1994 Oakland Athletics 1995 St. Louis Cardinals 1996-1998 Texas Rangers 1998 Arizona Diamondbacks 1999-2002 Awards None All-Star Selections: None League Leader None Career Ranks None of note Best Performance August 26, 1992 - Toronto at Chicago Carried a no hitter into the 8th inning before a Dan Pasqua double with one out breaks it up. Finished with a complete game, one-hitter. Hall of Fame Stats Gray Ink: Pitching - 28 (812) (Average HOFer ≈ 185) HOF Standards: Pitching - 13.0 (582) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Pitching - 15.0 (716) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Pitchers in HOF: None Top 10 Similar Pitchers: Darryl Kile, Woody Williams, Livan Hernandez, Pat Hentgen, Ron Darling, Kevin Tapani, Mike Krukow, Tim Belcher, Pedro Astacio, Mike Hampton Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacment Level (WARP3) 1988: 0/0.0 1989: 6/2.7 1990: 9/4.9 1991: 15/6.0 1992: 7/3.1 1993: 7/3.1 1994: 10/6.2 1995: 10/5.4 1996: 14/5.7 1997: 11/5.3 1998: 14/4.8 1999: 6/2.0 2000: 6/3.0 2002: 0/-0.1 Career Win Shares: 115 Career WARP3: 54.0 My Stupid Opinion If you look up "Middle of the Rotation Starter" in the dictionary you'll probably see Stottlemyre's face. He's this year's "Why the hell is this guy on the ballot?" winner as there's nothing in his career that stands out. Now he was a better pitcher than Bobby Witt who was on last year's ballot and freakin' Gary DiSarcina was on the 2006 ballot so there have been worse nominees. He did pitch for two World Champions in Toronto (he was out for the season during the D-Backs 2001 run) but in his only World Series start he was shelled, the infamous 15-14 slugfest in Game 4 of the '93 Series.

Only eleven first ballot candidates this year and I already made it known in the Hall of Fame Ballot thread that Tim Raines is the only one deserving to get in, not that that is any great insight. But I'll still run through all eleven newbies but a little different from last year when I was going through the whole ballot and ended each entry with my opinion of whether they'd get my imaginary vote or not. Instead I'll just give "My Stupid Opinion" on each player. Also this year I'll throw in a link to the boxscore of each player's "best" performance, although really I'm not putting that much research into it. For the order of players I'll again go in reverse order of career Win Shares. Rod Beck - Closer San Francisco Giants 1991-1997 Chicago Cubs 1998-1999 Boston Red Sox 1999-2001 San Diego Padres 2003-2004 Awards 1994 N.L. Rolaids Relief All-Star Selections: 3 (1993, 1994, 1997) League Leader None of note Career Ranks Games: 78th Saves: 23rd Best Performance April 18, 1993 - Atlanta at San Francisco Notches five strikeouts in pitching a shutout 9th and 10th (struckout the side) in a 13-12, 11 inning thriller against the Braves. Hall of Fame Stats Black Ink: Pitching - 1 (818) (Average HOFer ≈ 40) Gray Ink: Pitching - 23 (946) (Average HOFer ≈ 185) HOF Standards: Pitching - 13.0 (582) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Pitching - 63.0 (188) (Likely HOFer > 100) Similar Pitchers in HOF: None Top 10 Similar Pitchers: Jeff Montgomery, Armando Benitez, Robb Nen, Troy Percival, Keith Foulke, Jason Isringhausen, Todd Worrell, Gregg Olson, Tom Henke, Ugueth Urbina Year-by-Year Win Shares & Wins Above Replacment Level (WARP3) 1991: 3/1.2 1992: 16/4.9 1993: 16/5.9 1994: 7/4.2 1995: 7/3.1 1996: 10/4.9 1997: 12/4.5 1998: 13/6.0 1999: 3/1.0 2000: 5/1.7 2001: 7/3.5 2003: 6/4.3 2004: 0/-0.1 Career Win Shares: 105 Career WARP3: 45.1 My Stupid Opinion Due to his death earlier this year the five year rule was waived for Beck. A fan favorite who will be better known for his appearance and personality than his pitching prowess. A very good closer in his prime but rarely dominate and no where near the elite the closers of all-time. Maybe deserves a special spot in the Hall of Fame for overdosing on cocaine that he snorted off his own baseball card, which I'm pretty sure is the Score 1994 card pictured above.

Next week (I think) the 2008 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot will be released. Last year I did individual entries on each player on the ballot and I plan on doing the same thing this year for the first ballot players. Of course there is no point in redoing the holdovers from last year's ballot, and I'm much too lazy to update them, so here's links to each entry listed in order of the percentage of the vote they received last year. None of my opinions have changed as I would still vote Mark McGwire, Bert Blyleven, and Alan Trammell. 1. Goose Gossage 71.2% (9th year on ballot) 2. Jim Rice 63.5% (14th) 3. Andre Dawson 56.7% (7th) 4. Bert Blyleven 47.7% (11th) 5. Lee Smith 39.8% (6th) 6. Jack Morris 37.1% (9th) 7. Mark McGiwre 23.5% (2nd) 8. Tommy John 22.9% (14th) 9. Dave Concepcion 13.6% (15th and final year) 10. Alan Trammell 13.4% (7th) 11. Dave Parker 11.4% (12th) 12. Don Mattingly 9.9% (8th) 13. Dale Murphy 9.2% (10th) 14. Harold Baines 5.3% (2nd)