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Vern Gagne

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Well they never joined in the Bowl Coalition or Bowl Alliance because of tradition. The BCS would never have been created and couldn't have existed if the Rose Bowl hadn't finally given in and allowed the Big Ten and Pac-10 to participate in a chance to play in a so-called national championship game. In fact ABC put pressure on the Big Ten to join the BCS along with former SEC commisioner Roy Kramer who was the one who came up with the idea of the BCS. Here is a qutoe from interview Kramer did in 1999:

 

"We got to a point where we began to realize it was becoming more and

more difficult to match up conference champions in various bowl games,

because all the conferences were beginning to tie their teams into

individual bowls. Which meant all of them were beginning to play the

second team from somebody else's conference. We began to look at that,

and look at it from a broader scope, so we could try to put together, as

people have talked about, a single event where you could put the

consensus No. 1 and 2 teams together and match the other teams up along

the way. The difficulty in that was the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl would

have no part in it. For 50 years they had had the tradition of having

the champion of the Big Ten and the Pac-10 and had no desire to change.

It took us two and a half years to get the Rose Bowl to change that. It

took a lot of arm-twisting and a lot of the behind-the-scenes effort,

simply because they did not want to do it. We finally got the Big Ten

talked into it through the help of ABC television. We finally worked it

out."

 

Gee you think it would take two and a half years of convincing if it weren't for tradition?

 

They were pissed off with the Orange Bowl last year when they stole Iowa away and prevented a traditional Pac-10/Big Ten match-up. Its no coincidence that last year was the first Rose Bowl to not sell out in nearly 60 years. It wasn't necessarily the fault of the Oklahoma fans as they sold out their 35,000 seats allotment and so did Washington State but the regular fan who goes the Rose Bowl every year wasn't buying tickets last year. Expect the same this year with Texas or the SEC champ.

 

Here is quote from Rose Bowl CEO Mitch Dorger earlier this year on being in the BCS:

 

"If there was a way to turn back the clock and make everything the way it was, we'd prefer the way it was before," Rose Bowl CEO Mitch Dorger said. "But everything is not the way it was."

 

Trust me there will be an interesting subplot to the renewal of the BCS contract in a couple of years will be if the Rose Bowl decides to opt out of it. I think when the new contract comes up the Rose Bowl will demand that they always get a Pac-10/Big Ten match-up and not be a host to a BCS title game. It could probably be done if they add a 5th bowl to the BCS. I'd nominate the Cotton Bowl since it used to be a big game and has a lot tradition which is it what its all about.

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Guest Choken One

I still say it will be

 

USC/OLKA-Sugar

Miami/OSU-Orange

LSU/Florida St-Fiesta

Michigan/Texas-Rose

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New BCS Top 25 from collegebcs.com

 

1. Oklahoma 1.90

2. USC 6.89

3. LSU 9.04

4. Michigan 10.25

5. Ohio State 14.57

6. Texas 14.98

7. Georgia 15.06

8. Tennessee 17.97

9. Florida State 21.76

10. Miami 22.19

11. Florida 23.83

12. Iowa 28.57

 

13. Miami of Ohio 28.71

14. Purdue 31.98

15. Washington State 36.35

16. Kansas State 36.94

17. TCU 37.65

18. Mississippi 43.92

19. Boise State 44.49

20. Bowling Green 46.75

21. Oklahoma State 48.12

22. Utah 48.66

23. Nebraska 50.93

24. Arkansas 51.95

25. Pittsburgh 53.39

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Michigan needs a big time Upset by Oregon St. I think that the road is going to be tough for LSU to stay with one loss after playing three really good teams in a row in Ole Miss Arkansas and SEc East champ whoever it may be. My other question is why is Miami Ohio ranked 4th in the New York Times Poll, With michigan being one spot behind them. That one point would probably be enough to push them over LSU

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Its actually the Sagarin rankings that has Miami of Ohio #4 and Michigan's Sagarin ranking of #5 is thrown out for being its lowest in the computer rankings. LSU is #3 in the Sagarin rankings so I doubt it would have made a difference and LSU deserves to be ahead of Michigan anyways.

 

Random Bowl News

 

-Maryland accepted the invite to the Gator Bowl.

 

-Utah wapped up the Liberty Bowl berth this past week by winning the Mountain West and set in place the rest of the MW bowls with New Mexico going to the Las Vegas Bowl and Colorado State to the San Francisco Bowl.

 

-Finally in the shocker of all shockers...Hawaii has accepted to the invite to the Hawaii Bowl. Didn't see it coming.

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Interesting about Maryland getting the Gator Bowl bid already. The ACC bowls had said they were going to wait till Saturday's games were over to make their decisions, but I guess Gator knew what they were doing in any case. There are quite a few rumors going around that the Tangerine Bowl may actually leapfrog NC State and take Virginia. The Tire Bowl wants a different ACC team in its second year, and they also think they're getting Virginia Tech, and they definitely don't want a rematch of a game that happened just 4 weeks before.

 

So the Continental Tire Bowl might end up getting NC State vs. Virginia Tech. That's a frickin' coup right there, and will be one of the best bowl games of the season if it happens. Phillip Rivers in the air vs. Kevin Jones on the ground. I'm so there.

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Prediction-

 

If both LSU and USC win out, LSU will go to the Sugar Bowl because their strength of schedule will be better than USC, their computer rankings will be as good or better (they're about even in all rankings except the New York Times, which is the wackiest of all seven in the BCS without a doubt), and with all likelihood will have a quality win bonus for its victory over Georgia. (Even if Georgia loses to LSU again in the SEC Title Game, there's a good probability that they won't drop out of the BCS top ten)

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Prediction-

 

If both LSU and USC win out, LSU will go to the Sugar Bowl because their strength of schedule will be better than USC, their computer rankings will be as good or better (they're about even in all rankings except the New York Times, which is the wackiest of all seven in the BCS without a doubt), and with all likelihood will have a quality win bonus for its victory over Georgia.  (Even if Georgia loses to LSU again in the SEC Title Game, there's a good probability that they won't drop out of the BCS top ten)

They may not drop out, but they'll drop far enough that LSU won't get enough of a bonus for beating them to leapfrog USC. Not having a win in the SEC Championship Game count in the BCS rankings will hurt them significantly as well. No, LSU needs to beat someone other than Georgia in the title game to have any shot.

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Prediction-

 

If both LSU and USC win out, LSU will go to the Sugar Bowl because their strength of schedule will be better than USC, their computer rankings will be as good or better (they're about even in all rankings except the New York Times, which is the wackiest of all seven in the BCS without a doubt), and with all likelihood will have a quality win bonus for its victory over Georgia.  (Even if Georgia loses to LSU again in the SEC Title Game, there's a good probability that they won't drop out of the BCS top ten)

They may not drop out, but they'll drop far enough that LSU won't get enough of a bonus for beating them to leapfrog USC. Not having a win in the SEC Championship Game count in the BCS rankings will hurt them significantly as well. No, LSU needs to beat someone other than Georgia in the title game to have any shot.

The way the numbers are now, LSU needs to make up about two points to catch USC.

 

 

LSU's current numbers

 

 

3 (avg. poll position) + 3 (avg. computer rank) + 1 (number of losses) + 2.44 (strength of schedule) - 0.4 (quality win over Georgia) = 9.04

 

 

USC's current numbers

 

2 (avg. poll position) + 2.33 (avg. computer rank) + 1 (number of losses) + 1.56 (strength of schedule) = 6.89

 

9.04

-6.89

-------

2.15

 

 

The real areas of movement will be the average computer rank and the strength of schedule.

 

The strength of schedule will fall in LSU's favor after wins over Arkansas and the SEC East champ. I'd say that the SoS will go from a 2.44 to a 1.44 because of the two strong teams they'll play.

 

That brings it down to 1.15 to make up.

 

 

The computer rankings will start falling LSU's way next week, after a strong win, and will continue moving LSU's way when they beat the SEC East champ while USC is idle. Any movement by LSU up the computer polls will adversely affect USC, so there is the chance that LSU will move up to #2 in all the rankings but the NY Times, thus moving USC to #3. LSU's average computer rank would be 2 while USC's would be 3.

 

That would make the total 0.47 in LSU's favor when you factor in that LSU would improve to a 2 from a 3 while USC would go from a 2.33 to a 3 or worse.

 

1.14

-1.67

------

-0.47

 

 

If LSU beats Georgia in the SEC Championship game, Georgia will go down.

 

 

Based on the number of losses and the poll rankings staying the same, that would mean that the quality victory bonus from beating Georgia would diminish. HOWEVER, if LSU does what I listed above, they'll still hold a 0.07 advantage over USC even if Georgia drops to #11 or below in the BCS.

 

 

While it may not be definitive, I'd say LSU's chances are more than remote if they win out.

 

 

That doesn't even take into account the chances of LSU passing USC for #2 in even one poll after beating Arkansas and the SEC champ, which would give LSU a net point because they'd gain 0.5 while USC lost 0.5.

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Guest Deebo

LSU beating Arkansas won't help much. Oregon State is 7-4 and Arkansas is 8-3, so there isn't much of a difference. LSU beating Georgia would probably knock Georgia out of the top 10 of the BCS, asuming nobody behind them loses, and like someone above said, even if they don't fall out they'll fall far enough that they won't give LSU enough quality win points. What LSU really needs is Florida to beat FSU and Kentucky to beat Tennessee.

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Arkansas is #24 in the current BCS, which is better than Oregon State, which helps to start with.

 

Add in several games which will influence strength of schedule (Florida-Florida State, Alabama-Hawaii, LA Tech-Rice, Arizona-Arizona State, Boise State-Hawaii, and two more) and it starts to add up.

 

Florida-Florida State is an obvious one, so I'll leave it alone. The way State is playing, I'd say Florida will win it... they just need to get their heads out of their asses because South Carolina almost beat them.

 

Alabama-Hawaii directly affects LSU and USC because LSU beat Bama while USC beat Hawaii. I'm not sure who'll win this, but I'm going with Bama.

 

Hawaii-Boise State negatively affects USC's SoS is Hawaii loses to a strong Boise State team.

 

LA Tech-Rice positively affects LSU's SOS if they beat a weak Rice team just because Tech gets another win.

 

Arizona-Arizona State can positively affect LSU and negatively affect USC if Arizona wins, as USC has played both teams while LSU has only played Arizona.

 

 

All these little factors will add up to bite USC in the ass and help LSU out. Also, don't discount the HUGE jump in SoS just by playing a top 10 team as a bonus game.

 

 

I also won't deny that a loss or poor showing by Tennessee against Kentucky and a strong win by Florida over Florida State will help LSU immensely, as LSU will not lose any of the quality win bonus by having to beat Georgia.

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The strength of schedule will fall in LSU's favor after wins over Arkansas and the SEC East champ. I'd say that the SoS will go from a 2.44 to a 1.44 because of the two strong teams they'll play.

This is where the problem is. If LSU beats Georgia, it does NOT count in the rankings, as you can only count one win against a particular opponent. LSU needs to beat either Tennessee or Florida in the title game to improve their SoS enough to bypass USC.

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The strength of schedule will fall in LSU's favor after wins over Arkansas and the SEC East champ.  I'd say that the SoS will go from a 2.44 to a 1.44 because of the two strong teams they'll play.

This is where the problem is. If LSU beats Georgia, it does NOT count in the rankings, as you can only count one win against a particular opponent. LSU needs to beat either Tennessee or Florida in the title game to improve their SoS enough to bypass USC.

You've got it wrong... you still get credit for the Strength of Schedule for facing a team twice, but you CAN'T get a second Quality Win bonus for beating a team twice.

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Bored's Bowl Projections OR Everyone Elses Version 4.0

 

The usual disclaimer: I jumble together espn.com's four seperate bowl projections, si.com, collegefootballnews.com, and collegebcs.com's projections just to give you an idea of who may or may not be going to each bowl game. Again since any number of match-ups could end up happening in the Orange and Fiesta Bowl I just list everyone being picked there.

 

Teams listed in bold have locked up/accepted the bid to that bowl game.

 

December 16

New Orleans: North Texas vs. Memphis/Houston

 

December 18

GMAC: TCU vs. Miami (OH)

 

December 22

Tangerine: N.C. State/Virginia/Georgia Tech vs. Missouri/Kansas/Texas Tech

 

December 23

Fort Worth: Houston/Louisville/South Florida vs. Kansas/Syracuse/Tulsa/Connecticut

 

December 24

Las Vegas: New Mexico vs. Oregon State/Washington/California

 

December 25

Hawaii: Louisville/Memphis vs. Hawaii

 

December 26

Motor City: Bowling Green vs. Northwestern

Insight: West Virginia/Virginia Tech/Pittsburgh/Miami vs. California/Oregon State

 

December 27

Continental Tire: Virginia Tech/Boston College/Pittsburgh vs. Clemson/Georgia Tech/Virginia/N.C. State

 

December 29

Alamo: Michigan State/Minnesota vs. Nebraska/Oklahoma State/Kansas State

 

December 30

Houston: Texas Tech/Colorado vs. Connecticut/Houston/Syracuse/Boston College/Navy/Northern Illinois

Holiday: Washington State vs. Kansas State/Nebraska/Oklahoma State

Silicon Valley: Fresno State vs. UCLA/Washington/California

 

December 31

Music City: Auburn/Arkansas vs. Wisconsin/Michigan State

Independence: Missouri/Kansas/Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas/Auburn

Liberty: Southern Miss vs. Utah

Sun: Oregon vs. Minnesota/Michigan State/Wisconsin

San Francisco: Colorado State vs. Boston College/Syracuse/West Virginia/Virginia Tech

 

January 1

Outback: Iowa vs. Tennessee/Georgia/Florida

Gator: West Virginia/Pittsburgh/Miami vs. Maryland

Capital One: Purdue vs. Florida/Tennessee/Georgia/LSU

Rose: Michigan vs. LSU/Texas/Georgia/USC

Orange: Miami, Florida State, Ohio State, Pittsburgh

 

January 2

Cotton: Oklahoma State/Kansas State vs. Mississippi/Georgia

Peach: Clemson/N.C. State vs. Missisippi/Florida/Tennessee

Fiesta: Texas, Florida State, Ohio State, LSU, Pittsburgh

 

January 3

Humanitarian: Boise State vs. Georgia Tech/Virginia

 

January 4

Sugar: Oklahoma vs. USC/LSU

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The strength of schedule will fall in LSU's favor after wins over Arkansas and the SEC East champ.  I'd say that the SoS will go from a 2.44 to a 1.44 because of the two strong teams they'll play.

This is where the problem is. If LSU beats Georgia, it does NOT count in the rankings, as you can only count one win against a particular opponent. LSU needs to beat either Tennessee or Florida in the title game to improve their SoS enough to bypass USC.

You've got it wrong... you still get credit for the Strength of Schedule for facing a team twice, but you CAN'T get a second Quality Win bonus for beating a team twice.

I stand corrected (misread something in an article)...although I don't see how that could possibly work.

 

However, Georgia would certainly drop to 10th, if not 11th, in the BCS standings if LSU beats them. I don't see how they couldn't -- they would drop to 9th or 10th in the polls, have another loss tacked onto their total, and would drop in the computers as well.

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Georgia's currently 5th in the polls IIRC. Losing in the SEC championship game to the #3 ranked team in the country will NOT drop them out of the top ten unless it's as one-sided as Oklahoma-Texas A&M. If it's the least bit competitive, Georgia will still be 7th or 8th in polls and probably 9th or 10th in the BCS.

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Guest Choken One

I still can't believe MOH is #13!

 

I Hope USC loses and LSU wins so it works out for the BCS...why

 

Home town LSU in the Sugar and the "Hometown" USC in the Rose along with The traditional big10/pac10 showdown

 

However, if USC loses, how far would they drop?

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Guest Choken One

Hey, Bored...Did you forget about Miami of Ohio?

 

They are ranked #13th in the BCS and 12th in Polls (i think) and yet you left them off...I think they should at LEAST get a bigger bowl game then GMAC.

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Hey, Bored...Did you forget about Miami of Ohio?

 

They are ranked #13th in the BCS and 12th in Polls (i think) and yet you left them off...I think they should at LEAST get a bigger bowl game then GMAC.

He didn't forget. It's just the best they can really do. The MAC is tied to the GMAC bowl - the conference champion gets an automatic bid there.

 

If they got into the BCS top 12, they'd be eligible for an at-large bid, but no one's going to pick Miami of Ohio when they've got Ohio State and Texas available.

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Guest Choken One
Hey, Bored...Did you forget about Miami of Ohio?

 

They are ranked #13th in the BCS and 12th in Polls (i think) and yet you left them off...I think they should at LEAST get a bigger bowl game then GMAC.

He didn't forget. It's just the best they can really do. The MAC is tied to the GMAC bowl - the conference champion gets an automatic bid there.

 

If they got into the BCS top 12, they'd be eligible for an at-large bid, but no one's going to pick Miami of Ohio when they've got Ohio State and Texas available.

Which pisses me off really...

 

Tradition? Fuck it...Stop putting certain conferences with a certain bowl...

 

I still say they should just cut it down it 12 primary Bowls(And alternate them every year. For the national title game only for Rose, Fiesta, Sugar and Orange) and have a system.

 

1 Vs 2-Sugar

3 Vs 4- Orange

5 Vs 6-Fiesta

7 Vs 8- Rose

9 vs 10- Capital One

11 vs 12- Gator

13 vs 14-Cotton

15 vs 16- Outback

17 vs 18- Peach

19 vs 20- Holiday Bowl

21 vs 22- Alamo

23 vs 24- Tangerine

 

*You can change the last 4 if you wish.

 

#25 gets the right to have a local Bowl game (I.E if It's Michigan State whose #25...they can play in the Motor City Bowl and they will play the next top team)...

 

The Small Conferences(MAC,Sun Belt, WAC, etc) can seperate from the BCS sham and have a 16 team tournament.

If a team finishes top 25...they are excluded.

 

Take 4 conferences like those and have the 4 top non top 25 teams in there...

 

Is it the best? No but it's better then BCS.

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Actually the MAC champ doesn't automatcially go to either the Motor City or GMAC Bowl although I'm fairly sure typically the Motor City Bowl gets the MAC champ in past years.

 

The reason why all the projections have Bowling Green going the Motory City Bowl and Miami of Ohio to the GMAC Bowl is because I'm guessing the word is out the MAC wants Miami of Ohio to play TCU so it can be hyped as "The Non-BCS Championship Game". In fact I'm almost certain the GMAC Bowl will be marketed that way if Miami of Ohio does indeed win the MAC title game and probably will since they'll be playing it at home.

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Guest Choken One

I guess but I believe MOH deserves better than that...

 

At least give them a Outback/Gator Midcard bowl...

 

I swear it's the same teams for those every year.

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I guess but I believe MOH deserves better than that...

 

At least give them a Outback/Gator Midcard bowl...

 

I swear it's the same teams for those every year.

It's the way the bowls pick the teams that does it. Since the top team automatically gets the BCS bid, they pick the team they consider the best draw after that.

 

Considering that the Outback and Gator are the 2nd and 3rd SEC bowls, they will always go with Tennessee, Auburn, and Florida if they're having decent seasons.

 

Other traditional bowl choices in the SEC are the Peach Bowl picking LSU or Georgia, the Cotton Bowl picking LSU or Arkansas, and the Independance Bowl picking LSU, Arkansas or either Mississippi team.

 

 

If all non-BCS bowl bids were by open competition, Miami of Ohio would still be shut out because they aren't a team that traditionally "travels well". Their best bet would still probably be the Motor City Bowl because it's the one closest to them geographically.

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Guest Flyboy
I would just like to say that Kevin Jones is the best running back in the country.

I'm not a Michigan fan by any means, but Chris Perry is better. That guy is gritty.

Perry is #2, but Kevin Jones is a better all-around RB.

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