Borderline Hall of Famers

[Vern Gagne 0]

Add the possibility of 3,000 hits for Palmeiro.

[CanadianChris 0]

Larry Walker - Nope. Playing most of his career in Colorado is not going to help him with the voters. I don't think anyone from the Rockies will ever make the HoF.

 

Albert Belle - I doubt it. The media hated this guy, and I think enough wouldn't vote for him that he wouldn't get in. Plus, I don't think he was good enough for long enough.

 

Bernie Williams - Probably. A very good all-around player, and one of the top 2 or 3 center fielders of his era.

 

Edgar Martinez - Maybe. With Paul Molitor in, I think voters will be a little more lenient on guys who were primarily DHs. And he's one of the best hitters to come along in the past 20 years.

 

Barry Larkin - I think he should be. Might have been the best shortstop in the majors before the Big Three came along. The MVP will certainly help.

 

Fred McGriff - Very borderline. He might be the sacrificial lamb when the writers decide that 500 HRs isn't an automatic ticket to the HoF in this age.

 

Craig Biggio - I might put him in...he's played three very difficult positions and excelled. But I could certainly see him not getting in, because he was never really at the very, very top of the league.

 

Curt Schilling - I hope so. He's certainly working his way up there. I think it'll depend on how he does while he's in Boston...he needs another good season or two, I believe.

 

John Franco - If Lee Smith, Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter can't get in, Franco's certainly not going to.

 

Mike Mussina - Not right now. No Cy Youngs -- hardly ever even sniffed one, in fact -- and no really significant accomplishments during his career. Just a very good pitcher.

 

Kevin Brown - Nope. Again, no Cy Youngs, only two top 3 finishes, and nothing about him that really stands out. Again, he wasn't good enough for long enough.

 

Trevor Hoffman - See Franco.

Edited January 7, 2004 by CanadianChris

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Add the possibility of 3,000 hits for Palmeiro.

 

True. My Bill James Handbook pegs Palmeiro as an 86% shot for 3,000 hits.

 

Now here are some real borderline cases at the moment to discuss:

 

Larry Walker

Albert Belle

Bernie Williams

Edgar Martinez

Barry Larkin

Fred McGriff

Craig Biggio

Curt Schilling

John Franco

Mike Mussina

Kevin Brown

Trevor Hoffman

 

Larry Walker. Oy. The first real test of Colorado. I'd have to say no right now. He doesn't stand out from Parker, Rice, et al., and none of those guys are in.

 

Albert Belle. Good enough, but his career was too short.

 

Bernie Williams. No, but could make it if he puts a few good seasons together.

 

Edgar Martinez. Yes. I don't count his DHing against him, because he could've played first if he had to. Simply one of the dominant hitters of our era.

 

Barry Larkin. Yes.

 

Fred McGriff. Yes, as long as he tops 500 home runs.

 

Craig Biggio. Yes. I great player in all facets of the game.

 

Curt Schilling. Not enough wins yet. He'll need to pitch well into his 40s.

 

John Franco. No.

 

Mike Mussina. Yes. 199 wins along with an amazing .644 winning percentage.

 

Kevin Brown. No. See Curt Schilling.

 

Trevor Hoffman. Not with under 1,000 career innings pitched.

[the pinjockey 0]

Does anyone else get the sense, that if Schilling brings a title to Boston, everyone is going to fall over themselves to get him in? I can't see him not getting in, if he proves to be the final piece of the puzzle.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Biggio is also a favorite of the media so that's another thing in his favor.

 

I say it's only fitting if Bagwell and Biggio go in the same year. That won't happen, has Bagwell will end up being a 1st ballot and Biggio will having to wait.

[the pinjockey 0]

Craig Biggio should be a first ballot HOFer.

[the pinjockey 0]

Side note: Is there any purpose to the whole "I won't vote for a first ballot HOFer unless they are Babe Ruth" sentiment? Someone is either a HOFer or not, who cares about making them wait a year or two.

[Vern Gagne 0]

First ballot maybe. But after 2 or 3 years, will the writers find 20 more HR Sandberg hit that gets him into the Hall?

[Bored 0]

Since I mentioned all those names guess I should make my comments.

 

Larry Walker - Forget the offensive numbers and playing in Coors for a second, in his prime he was the best defensive right fielder in the game. But what is really going to keep him out probably in the end is that he has never been able to stay healthy. Only one season has he played more than 150 games. If he could stayed healthy most of his career his numbers would be good enough no matter what ballpark he played in.

 

Albert Belle - If he had been a media darling he would be a near lock because he'd get a lot symapthy votes for having his career being cut short because of injury, almost like a Gale Sayers situation. But as we all know he wasn't and he'll get no votes of sympathy. His numbers in his prime are off the charts good and if he'd stayed healthy and played three or four more years his numbers would be too good to keep him out even if you hated the guy. Alas 12 years just isn't enough to get him in.

 

Bernie Williams - If he retired today he's definently not in. It will be very interesting to see what numbers he puts up now that he will be a fulltime DH. That move might save his career as if he continued to play the field everyday his numbers would continue to spiral down like they did last year. Also even though he does have four gold gloves I don't know how much really deserved any of them, with the exception of 1999. His range numbers for his career are actually below the league average. One thing is for sure...playing for the Yankees in a bunch of World Series never hurts a player's chances of getting in.

 

Edgar Martinez - Forget Paul Molitor, Edgar will be the first real test to see if a true DH can get in the HOF. I personally don't think he should get in and its all but your own opinion on the DH. I just don't see his numbers being as good if he played the field his whole career, yes even at first base. Again just his induction will be based purely on personal opinion and not numbers.

 

Barry Larkin - I vote yes but considering what has happend to Alan Trammell I'm really doubting Larkin's chances. Who does Larkin's compare to the most? Yup...Trammell. Obviously the influx of offensive shortstops has had an adverse effect on previous shortstops and doesn't help someone like Larkin played at the same time as Cal Ripken. Like Larry Walker, Larkin also has had a lot of trouble staying healthy through out his career as he's had four season where he played less than 100 games and seven where he played less than 120. At his age and health it's tough to see him pushing his career numbers over 200 homeruns and 1000 rbi even though he's only 10 and 84 short repsectably. I'd like to see him get in but its going to be iffy.

 

Fred McGriff - I give him a slight nod for the Hall but as already suggested I bet he is first the 500 HR club member to not make it. If he can stay healthy this year and put up 30 HR that might tip some votes but if he has another year like last it will just look like he was just barely hanging on to get to 500 homeruns. He did have a seven year period (1988-1994) that he finished in the Top 5 in the league in OPS. One thing in his favor is that his numbers most favorably compare to Willie McCovey. Of course what would have McCovey done in this era?

 

Craig Biggio - Definently should be in but in this offensive era his numbers will get overshadowed. Of course the thing that sets him apart from others was the transition from catcher to a gold glove second baseman. His numbers compare favorably to Roberto Alomar and most would agree Alomar is a lock. Wouldn't shock me if he it took Biggio a few years to get in but he will and should get in.

 

Curt Schilling - Its amazing how good he has become but he still has only 163 career wins. Granted that had some to do with playing on some bad teams but at this point he's not a HOF. He's definently someone to revisit in a few years to see how he finished off his career. If he can top 200 wins and 3000 strikeouts then he's got a good shot. If he leads the Red Sox to a World Title then he'll probably be inducted the next day.

 

John Franco - Yes until Goose Gossage gets someone like Franco has no shot and plus I've always felt Franco was a bit overrated so I'd never vote him.

 

Mike Mussina - He's only 34 and he isn't showing any signs of hitting the wall just yet. He continues to string 17 and 18 win seasons for another four or five years he'll definently get in. Right now I don't think he really has that great of a case to get in so he's another to revisit down the road.

 

Kevin Brown - Injuries have absolutely killed him. When healthy he can and has put up Greg Maddux type numbers. If he can somehow stay healthy for two or three more years and put up good numbers I think he's got a shot and I think at that point I'd put him in.

 

Trevor Hoffman - Yes the Gossage argument again but Hoffman is a better pitcher than John Franco. Problem is he's already 35 but only played 11 years and missed almost all of last year so it's hard to imagine returning to his form of the late 90s where he was the N.L.'s best closer. If he can stay healthy he woud have a shot at the all-time save record but considering Lee Smith isn't exactly close to getting into the HOF that record doesn't at the moment seem to mean much. Personally...I might put Hoffman in if he can continue to pitch at a high level.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

The big problem with pitchers like Franco is that so many similar pitchers exist. Jeff Montgomery, Dan Quisenberry, Rick Aguilera, Robb Nen, etc. Criteria 1 of any HOF is standing out from the pack. I don't see it from Franco.

[nl5xsk1 0]

I'm going to concentrate on hockey only, b/c that's really the only sport that I actually sit and think about things like future hall of fame potential.

 

In my eyes, the people that get into the HHOF have to be special, be great, not just very good or win a few championships. (Hell, if you go by Cups alone, Claude Lemieux would be a first ballot HOFer, and that'd be a fucking joke) For example, as much as I liked Pat Lafontaine as a player, he really isn't HHOF worthy in my eyes - injuries derailed his career too much. He was good, maybe very good, but not great. So, by that logic, people like Richter, Belfour, Nolan, Selanne, CuJo, Roenick, & Federov wouldn't make it.

 

If I had to pick 10 guys to go to the HHOF, my ten (in no order) would be:

- Ray Bourque

- Mark Messier

- Steve Yzerman

- Ron Francis

- Brett Hull

- Dominic Hasek

- Cam Neely (best power forward EVER)

- Martin Brodeur

- Peter Forsberg

- Patrick Roy

 

Toughest omissions: Sakic, Andreychuk, MacInnis, Chelios, Shanahan, Modano, Jagr.

 

There are a lot of potential HOFers playing right now, but they'd need to play at their present level, and even then improve upon it, to have a legitimate chance: Bertuzzi, Kariya, Naslund, Pronger, Thornton, Kovalchuk, to name just a few. The reason that these guys can't be considered now is answered with one question: If they retired right here and now, would they be anywhere near HOF-worthy? And in my eyes, the answer to all of the above is no.

[Guest drdrainoscott]

Now here are some real borderline cases at the moment to discuss:

 

Larry Walker

Albert Belle

Bernie Williams

Edgar Martinez

Barry Larkin

Fred McGriff

Craig Biggio

Curt Schilling

John Franco

Mike Mussina

Kevin Brown

Trevor Hoffman

Out of all of those, I would only vote in Edgar. Mike Mussina is my favorite player (even though he's an ass for leaving Baltimore for New York), but he hasn't done enough to justify being in the Hall. He's never even won 20. Schilling could make it maybe if he has a couple good years in Boston. None of the others really have a chance though I think.

 

See, I think that the problem with this list of players, is that, while they have been the stars of the 90's, they wouldn't really hold up when it comes to HOF balloting. I mean, Ryne Sandberg was regarded as probably the top second baseman of the 80's, and he didn't make it in (though I'm sure that will change in a couple years). Kevin Brown, meanwhile, isn't even in the top ten pitchers of the 90s. Schilling is close to being top ten, but he isn't definitly a part of that list. Hoffman and Franco aren't top tier relievers. For every Albert Belle, there is a Juan Gonzalez and a Mo Vaughn. Like I said, Edgar should be in cause he is the best DH of the 90's. No one else on this list could make that claim for their position.

Edited January 7, 2004 by drdrainoscott

[Bored 0]

Larry Walker - Nope. Playing most of his career in Colorado is not going to help him with the voters. I don't think anyone from the Rockies will ever make the HoF.

Quick name the active leader in career OPS? Don't say Barry Bonds.

 

It's Todd Helton. He's only played seven years so obviously he's got a ways to go before you start talking HOF with him but if he finishes his career with a higher OPS than Bonds then there is no way you could keep him out even if he does he play his whole career with the Rockies. It's just bizarre if you look at the all-time leaders in OPS it goes Ruth, Williams, Gehrig...Helton. Also on top of that Helton's career adjusted OPS is the same as Alex Rodriguez's so Helton isn't only a great hitter because of where he plays.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Kevin Brown, meanwhile, isn't even in the top ten pitchers of the 90s.

 

Just out of curiousity, who are the ten pitchers who would rank ahead of Kevin Brown?

[CanadianChris 0]

Off the top of my head...

 

Clemens

Maddux

Glavine

Johnson

Martinez

Cone

Rivera

Smoltz

Mussina

Schilling

[treble 0]

I'm going to concentrate on hockey only, b/c that's really the only sport that I actually sit and think about things like future hall of fame potential.

 

In my eyes, the people that get into the HHOF have to be special, be great, not just very good or win a few championships. (Hell, if you go by Cups alone, Claude Lemieux would be a first ballot HOFer, and that'd be a fucking joke) For example, as much as I liked Pat Lafontaine as a player, he really isn't HHOF worthy in my eyes - injuries derailed his career too much. He was good, maybe very good, but not great. So, by that logic, people like Richter, Belfour, Nolan, Selanne, CuJo, Roenick, & Federov wouldn't make it.

The thing is, Belfour has been great. He's currently 5th all-time in career wins, and has the potential to finish his career in 2nd place (he's at 419, Terry Sawchuk had 447), will probably finish up in the top 10 in career shutouts (he's #11 right now with 69, just 2 behind #10), and has 2 Vezinas and a Stanley Cup (which is more important as a goalie, IMO, since 9 times out of 10 he's the most important player on the ice, especially in the playoffs). Aside from Roy, Brodeur, and Hasek, he's the best goalie of his generation.

 

If I had to pick 10 guys to go to the HHOF, my ten (in no order) would be:

- Ray Bourque

- Mark Messier

- Steve Yzerman

- Ron Francis

- Brett Hull

- Dominic Hasek

- Cam Neely (best power forward EVER)

- Martin Brodeur

- Peter Forsberg

- Patrick Roy

 

Toughest omissions: Sakic, Andreychuk, MacInnis, Chelios, Shanahan, Modano, Jagr.

I'd put Sakic and Jagr in ahead of Forsberg and Neely. Neely was a great player, no doubt, but he was injured a lot. I wouldn't complain if he made it, since he deserves it, but Jagr dominated the league for years, led the NHL in scoring 5 times, and was the MVP. If he's not in, it's hard to make a case for anyone else from this era. As for Sakic, I think he deserves some advantage for being the captain of a dominant team and being relatively healthy through his career, while Forsberg has had trouble staying healthy for the past few years. If both retired tomorrow, I'd put Sakic ahead of Forsberg. Other than that, I agree with your locks.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Off the top of my head...

 

Clemens

Maddux

Glavine

Johnson

Martinez

Cone

Rivera

Smoltz

Mussina

Schilling

I probably put more thought into this then is healthy. In any case, I drew up a spreadsheet with those 10 and Brown, and took a look.

 

Right off the bat, I'd scratch Rivera. Starting pitchers are fundamentally better than relievers. He's easily above Glavine as well.

 

The thing with Brown is that he doesn't give up many home runs. Only Rivera and Maddux on that list allow home runs at a lower rate. If you look at the active pitching leaders, you'll see Brown many times on those lists. Brown is one of baseball's elite, but no one noticed because he hasn't played on good teams, outside of '97.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Also on top of that Helton's career adjusted OPS is the same as Alex Rodriguez's so Helton isn't only a great hitter because of where he plays.

That's news to me. Helton's numbers on the road are on par with someone like Mark Grace. He hits far less HR's, and his batting average is usually around .300, compared to like .380 at home.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Helton's career road numbers: 294/385/523

[nl5xsk1 0]

TC, I'll concede the Belfour arguement to you ... his numbers do justify inclusion in the Hall. I still think that he was lucky to play on very good teams for most of his career (TO and Dallas more than Chicago, obviously) and that helped inflate his numbers, especially the years in Dallas - they were a pretty conservative team, and thus he didn't face too many shots. But, all things considered, top 2 or 3 in wins and top 10 in shutouts can't be ignored (plus, he's been on my fantasy team for a few years now, and he always helps them. But I don't think the Hall really cares about The High Life).

 

I can't agree on Forsberg/Neely compared to Sakic/Jagr. Jagr had the advantage of being the wingman with Lemieux. I think the real Jaromir is the one playing now, without Mario on his side, helping him inflate his stats. He's very good (and will most likely make the HHOF regardless of my opinion) but I don't think he's as great as his numbers indicate. Sakic gets some points for his Cup wins, and his leadership, but I really don't consider him one of the greats of today. Both Neely and Forsberg were better players than Sakic, and thus get the edge in my eyes.

[Guest drdrainoscott]

Off the top of my head...

 

Clemens

Maddux

Glavine

Johnson

Martinez

Cone

Rivera

Smoltz

Mussina

Schilling

I would take off Cone and put in Petitte, but the rest looks pretty good.

[CanadianChris 0]

He's easily above Glavine as well.

For the 90s? No way. Glavine won two Cy Youngs and four other top-3 finishes, had four 20-win seasons, was a World Series MVP, and had an ERA in the 2s or low 3s for most of those years. He was consistently excellent for the entire decade. Brown's numbers with Texas and Baltimore went from mediocre to downright pitiful...and those numbers spanned more than half the decade! He didn't start to be good until he got to Florida in 1996.

[Guest Bottled Black]

Nomar is, easily, the least likely of the three SS's mentioned to make the Hall. ARod, if his career continues as is, is a no-brainer and Jeter has just won too damned much to not make it. A HOF should be dominant in his era and Nomar just isn't. In the AL, he's far below ARod and Jeter in terms of shortstops.

I don’t agree. I think Nomar gets the shaft here quite frankly. If Jeter didn’t play for the Yankees with his 4 rings, no one would be mentioning him as a shoo-in for the HOF.

 

I compared some of their stats. Check this out

Regular season:

 

Jeter: 1212 Games played

1549 Hits, 127 HR’s 615 RBI’s 178 SB’s .317 Avg. .389 OBP .462 SLG.

Nomar: 928 Games Played

1231 Hits, 173 HR’s 669 RBI’s 82 SB’s .323 Avg. .370 OBP .555 SLG

 

Post Season:

Jeter: 99 Games Played

123 Hits, 13 HR’s, 33 RBI’s, 13 SB’s, .314 Avg. .385 OBP, .469 SLG

Nomar: 25 Games Played

31 Hits, 7 HR’s, 21 RBI’s, 2 SB’s, .323 Avg. .391 OBP, .625 SLG

 

Fielding:

Jeter: .973 Fielding Percentage, 132 Errors

Nomar: .969 Fielding Percentage, 130 Errors

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

He's easily above Glavine as well.

For the 90s? No way. Glavine won two Cy Youngs and four other top-3 finishes, had four 20-win seasons, was a World Series MVP, and had an ERA in the 2s or low 3s for most of those years. He was consistently excellent for the entire decade. Brown's numbers with Texas and Baltimore went from mediocre to downright pitiful...and those numbers spanned more than half the decade! He didn't start to be good until he got to Florida in 1996.

I looked at Brown and Glavine's BB and K numbers. Brown walks less batters, and strikes out more. Glavine benefitted much of his career from Andruw Jones patrolling center field. Brown allows less home runs than Glavine, and less hits. The only advantage Glavine has is that he played on better teams.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Nomar is, easily, the least likely of the three SS's mentioned to make the Hall. ARod, if his career continues as is, is a no-brainer and Jeter has just won too damned much to not make it. A HOF should be dominant in his era and Nomar just isn't. In the AL, he's far below ARod and Jeter in terms of shortstops.

I don’t agree. I think Nomar gets the shaft here quite frankly. If Jeter didn’t play for the Yankees with his 4 rings, no one would be mentioning him as a shoo-in for the HOF.

 

I compared some of their stats. Check this out

Regular season:

 

Jeter: 1212 Games played

1549 Hits, 127 HR’s 615 RBI’s 178 SB’s .317 Avg. .389 OBP .462 SLG.

Nomar: 928 Games Played

1231 Hits, 173 HR’s 669 RBI’s 82 SB’s .323 Avg. .370 OBP .555 SLG

 

Post Season:

Jeter: 99 Games Played

123 Hits, 13 HR’s, 33 RBI’s, 13 SB’s, .314 Avg. .385 OBP, .469 SLG

Nomar: 25 Games Played

31 Hits, 7 HR’s, 21 RBI’s, 2 SB’s, .323 Avg. .391 OBP, .625 SLG

 

Fielding:

Jeter: .973 Fielding Percentage, 132 Errors

Nomar: .969 Fielding Percentage, 130 Errors

I wanted to highlight this post to demonstrate how much of a farce playoff aura is. If you look at the stats of guys who played a ton of postseason games, you'll find that their career stats usually align with their career postseason stats. Players don't magically gain ability in October.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Off the top of my head...

 

Clemens

Maddux

Glavine

Johnson

Martinez

Cone

Rivera

Smoltz

Mussina

Schilling

I would take off Cone and put in Petitte, but the rest looks pretty good.

I'll give you the same argument I gave for Glavine. Brown trumps Pettitte in every rate stats. Less home runs, less hits, less walks, and more strikeouts. As with Glavine, the only advantage Pettitte has is that he had better teammates.

[Guest MikeSC]

Nomar is, easily, the least likely of the three SS's mentioned to make the Hall. ARod, if his career continues as is, is a no-brainer and Jeter has just won too damned much to not make it. A HOF should be dominant in his era and Nomar just isn't. In the AL, he's far below ARod and Jeter in terms of shortstops.

I don’t agree. I think Nomar gets the shaft here quite frankly. If Jeter didn’t play for the Yankees with his 4 rings, no one would be mentioning him as a shoo-in for the HOF.

 

I compared some of their stats. Check this out

Regular season:

 

Jeter: 1212 Games played

1549 Hits, 127 HR’s 615 RBI’s 178 SB’s .317 Avg. .389 OBP .462 SLG.

Nomar: 928 Games Played

1231 Hits, 173 HR’s 669 RBI’s 82 SB’s .323 Avg. .370 OBP .555 SLG

 

Post Season:

Jeter: 99 Games Played

123 Hits, 13 HR’s, 33 RBI’s, 13 SB’s, .314 Avg. .385 OBP, .469 SLG

Nomar: 25 Games Played

31 Hits, 7 HR’s, 21 RBI’s, 2 SB’s, .323 Avg. .391 OBP, .625 SLG

 

Fielding:

Jeter: .973 Fielding Percentage, 132 Errors

Nomar: .969 Fielding Percentage, 130 Errors

I wanted to highlight this post to demonstrate how much of a farce playoff aura is. If you look at the stats of guys who played a ton of postseason games, you'll find that their career stats usually align with their career postseason stats. Players don't magically gain ability in October.

I'm actually curious as to Smoltz' postseason ERA v regular season ERA. In the playoffs, he just SEEMED untouchable. You never really worried about a game Smoltz was pitching in October.

-=Mike

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I'm actually curious as to Smoltz' postseason ERA v regular season ERA. In the playoffs, he just SEEMED untouchable. You never really worried about a game Smoltz was pitching in October.

-=Mike

 

See for yourself. John Smoltz Smoltz certainly seems to dial it up during the postseason, which flies in the face of my argument.

 

EDIT: By the way, www.baseball-reference.com is insanely useful as a reference tool. If you've never checked it out, do so.

[Guest Bottled Black]

EDIT: By the way, www.baseball-reference.com is insanely useful as a reference tool. If you've never checked it out, do so.

Thats where I got all my data from. I find it very useful, when having arguement with friends about certain players.

[lomasmoney 0]

If I had to pick 10 guys to go to the HHOF, my ten (in no order) would be:

- Ray Bourque

- Mark Messier

- Steve Yzerman

- Ron Francis

- Brett Hull

- Dominic Hasek

- Cam Neely (best power forward EVER)

- Martin Brodeur

- Peter Forsberg{

- Patrick Roy

 

Toughest omissions: Sakic, Andreychuk, MacInnis, Chelios, Shanahan, Modano, Jagr

 

 

 

I think that Andreychuck (618 career goals, 11th all-time), Shanahan (550 career goals, 18th all-time), Luc Robitaille (640 goals, 10th all time), Al MacInnis(934 assists while playing D 12th all time, btw), Joe Sakic,( Only three less career points going into this season than Brett Hull with 1356), and Adam Oates ( one of the best assistmen to ever play) all should be considered locks