Election Day

[Highland 0]

We're having a federal election here in Canada in a few short weeks where the question who will form the next government will be answered.

 

Will the sponsorship-scandal ridden Liberals shake it off and rise to another majority, or will the newly-reunited Right pose enough of a threat to force a Liberal minority or even form the government themselves? What of the Bloc or the NDP?

 

Post your rants and opinions here.

 

(If this is appropriate, could a mod pin this, please?)

[Guest cobainwasmurdered]

This is going to be the first ever Federal election for me and it sucks teh ass.

 

Where I lived in Abbotsford the same guy always wins the seat by about 70% and he makes Bush look like a hippie lover.

 

I don't know much about the people running in Richmond yet but I'm sure they'll all be assclowns too.

 

The Liberals will get a minority government I figure.

[treble 0]

As long as I've lived here, a Liberal has had this seat (and it's been in the same family, too), but last time out he won by only 55 votes over the Alliance guy, with the vote being split big time between the Alliance and the PCs. Stephen Harper was here on the first day of the campaign drumming up support and I wouldn't be surprised if Martin comes here, too (he was already here a few months back, right around when the sponsorship scandal broke). I figure the Conservative guy wins here, but that the Liberals get a minority government or a small majority at best.

[LaParkaMarka 0]

You talking about Randy White, CWM? Randy White sucks so much ass.

 

My riding is brand spanking new, so I have no idea who any of the candidates are. My vote shall go to whoever has the best chance of beating the Conservatives.

[Kahran Ramsus 0]

It is all about the Conservatives. After the budget put forward by the Ontario Liberals last week, anyone in this province would be insane to vote for their federal brethren. Layton is nuts. So that leaves the Conservatives. On a personal note, I would laugh like hell if McGuinty's brother got beat in Ottawa South. I always vote in my true home riding of Durham East, but I spend most of the year in Ottawa.

[Highland 0]

For the first time ever, I'm rather apathetic on who to vote for.

All I know is that I'll vote for someone, since I believe if you didn't vote then you shouldn't bitch about who's in power.

[Guest cobainwasmurdered]

You talking about Randy White, CWM? Randy White sucks so much ass.

Yep. The man's completely insane.

[Kahran Ramsus 0]

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...6///?hub=Canada

 

Liberal slide worsening, new poll finds

CTV.ca News Staff

 

After the first week of campaigning, the Liberal Party is falling fast into minority territory, according to a new poll by Ipsos-Reid. And they may not have even bottomed out yet.

 

A new Ipsos-Reid poll conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail asked Canadians: Thinking of how you feel right now, if a federal election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties' candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support ?

 

The poll found that the Liberals are now at 34 per cent among decided voters -- their lowest level since Paul Martin became prime minister in December.

 

Not far behind is the Conservative Party, which has jumped four points to 30 per cent. Support for the New Democratic Party has dropped slightly to 16 per cent, down two points.

 

In Quebec, where the Liberal Party has been hit hard by the $100-million sponsorship scandal, the Bloc Quebecois has 44 per cent support, down six points. But it is leading the Liberals by a 15-point margin.

 

Based on those numbers, Ipsos-Reid drafted a seat projection model that suggests the Liberals would win only 122 to 126 seats if an election were held today. The Conservatives would get between 107 to 111 seats, the NDP 15 to 19, and the Bloc Quebecois 56 to 60.

 

At least 155 seats of the 308 seats up for grabs are needed for a majority.

 

CTV's Craig Oliver says the results do not bode well for the Liberals.

 

"They are on a really slippery deck. I think this is still a contest, but a really narrow one. It's very hard to find examples of a governing party that ever was able to come back from such a steep decline," he says.

 

According to the poll, the battleground for minority status is currently in Ontario, where 106 seats are up for grabs. It is in this province that support for the Liberals has taken a dive.

 

The seat projection model suggests the Conservatives would get between 40 and 44 seats in Ontario -- up dramatically from 11 seats two weeks ago. However, the Liberals would get only 55 to 59 seats, down sharply from 92 seats during the same time frame.

 

As well, the two parties are in a statistical tie in Ontario at 36 per cent of decided voter support.

 

According to Ipsos-Reid pollster Darrell Bricker, those numbers don't bode well for the party's chances.

 

"If they can't win overwhelmingly in Ontario, they're going to have a very difficult time forming a government," Bricker told CTV's Canada AM on Tuesday.

 

The Liberals have a commanding lead in Atlantic Canada, where the party has 44 per cent support among decided voters. The NDP and Conservatives are tied for second with one quarter of decided voter support.

 

The Green Party has six per cent support nationally, while two per cent said they would vote for some "other" party, and 12 per cent of Canadians are undecided or won't vote.

 

There is also bad news for the NDP in British Columbia, where support for the party has dropped six points to 14 per cent decided voter support.

 

Momentum

 

The results come just one week into the election campaign, and the Ipsos-Reid poll warns the Liberals may not have bottomed out yet.

 

Voters were asked: Now, some people say that in the up-coming federal election the Liberal Party deserves to be re-elected under the new leadership of Paul Martin, others say that the Liberal Party does not deserve to be re-elected and it's time for another Federal political party to be given a chance to govern the country. Which statement is closest to your opinion?

 

The poll suggests 66 per cent of Canadians believe it is time for a change, up from 60 per cent two weeks ago. Those numbers are highest in Alberta and Ontario.

 

Although that strong desire for change isn't being duplicated in the election forecasts, Bricker says that could change in the next four weeks of campaigning.

 

"Maybe the fact that it's more competitive than people thought initially it was going to be may have some impact on how people think about the election," he told Canada AM.

 

Meanwhile, 29 per cent of those polled said the Liberal government deserves to be re-elected -- most of those in agreement with that statement were in Atlantic Canada, followed by British Columbia and Saskatchewan/Manitoba.

 

That number usually represents a government's absolute base of support, Bricker says, explaining that the Liberals' are now at a low that should worry any incumbent government.

 

"They may not have come all the way down," he added.

 

The poll also looked at the question of what voters think of the party leaders. It asked: Now, overall would you say your opinion of this party leader has improved, worsened, or stayed the same over the last few weeks?

 

According to the responses given, the leader with the least amount of momentum is Martin. Only 11 per cent of those polled said their opinion of the Liberal leader and his party had improved over the last few weeks, compared to 47 per cent who said it had worsened. Thirty-six per cent said their opinion has "stayed the same."

 

The momentum instead appears to be pushing up Conservative Leader Stephen Harper. Thirty-two per cent say their opinion has improved of him over the last few weeks, while 14 per cent say their opinion has worsened. Forty-two per cent said their opinion has "stayed the same."

 

Jack Layton, leader of the New Democrats, also got a boost with 29 per cent saying they though better of him in the last few weeks. Fourteen per cent said their opinion had worsened, and 44 per cent said it had "stayed the same."

 

Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe had improved opinion among 12 per cent of Canadians and worsened among 10 per cent. Fifty-five per cent of those polled said their opinion had "stayed the same."

 

I know alot of you don't like polls, but a dive this big is not good news for the Government. Ontario is going to decide this race, and with Premier Dalton McGuinty rapidly becoming about as popular as Gray Davis in California and now infighting amongst the Premier and Prime Minister, this is disasterous for the Liberals.

[Highland 0]

I'm rather hoping for a minority government, since many of our most historic decisions were made by minority governments.

[Hogan Made Wrestling 0]

When I lived in Vancouver-Burnaby I voted for Svend Robinson, I'm not sure who I'll be voting for this time although it probably doesn't matter since up here the conservatives will win handily.

 

It's funny that at one time it looked like Martin could take 200+ seats and now he will be lucky to end up with a majority government. The big question now is if he wins a minority who will he form a coalition with?

[Kahran Ramsus 0]

If I was a betting man, and this is based on history, not necessarily my personal viewpoints, I think that the Conservatives will take the government. Momentum is huge in Canadian politics with the short election season and it is extremely difficult to turn things around in time when it is going south. I'd say that there is almost no chance of a Liberal majority at this point, barring a fantastic performance by Martin or braindead performance by Harper at the debates. The Liberals have no chance in Quebec, and if they lose Ontario too, they are sunk. A Conservative minority is probably the best bet at the moment, but even a Conservative majority isn't out of the question. The Liberals might pull out a minority, but I really don't see them grabbing 155 seats.

 

It's funny that at one time it looked like Martin could take 200+ seats and now he will be lucky to end up with a majority government. The big question now is if he wins a minority who will he form a coalition with?

 

My guess is Harper. Layton basically called him a murderer, and it is political suicide to link yourself to the Bloq.

[CanadianChris 0]

On a personal note, I would laugh like hell if McGuinty's brother got beat in Ottawa South.  I always vote in my true home riding of Durham East, but I spend most of the year in Ottawa.

That wouldn't surprise me at all, especially considering the NDP put Monia Mazigh (the wife of Maher Arar, who was deported to Syria by the FBI/RCMP for allegedly being a terrorist and tortured while there) to contest him in Ottawa South. There's a large Middle-Eastern population in that riding, and she's going to get a lot of support, not even considering the backlash of having McGuinty as your last name.

[Red Baron 0]

The Conservative needs a MAJORITY victory. The party has no real political platform, and if a major conflict arises when they have a minority government, we will have Red Torries, Conservatives, and Neo-Conservatives (aka Canadian Alliance) bickering on how it should be run. The fact is that most of their issues so far, has been attacks against the Liberals, but the party doesn't really explain how he will do that.

 

Harper tries to be conservative, but he's a reform politician at heart.

 

Demand Better is their slogan? Ya, and Conservative is the better party?

[Highland 0]

While I believe that is a good point, I still believe a minority government will serve our best interests, as the very real threat of the ruling party losing power will ensure the debacle of the last 11 years does not repeat itself.

[Red Baron 0]

I would have no beef voting for Conservative if it was Belinda Strondid(right?) and that other guy i can't remember. Harper is a Reformist (new word) and a Canada does not need that.

 

One thing is that Harper is completly ignoring the NDP, and not answering to what they are saying. Well Layton is pretty much a tool calling Martin a "murderer" to the homeless, and his nice little sharade of him crying.

 

Still I'll go with liberal, because well, I've been raised Liberal for my whole life, with my great uncle being an MPP for the liberals, and also I know the daughter of the person who is running for is running for Liberal in my area

[RavishingRickRudo 0]

I like Layton. I was going to vote Martin because I was brainwashed by my Grade 12 Economics teacher that he was the man, but the guy doesn't have a lot of balls. I was reading an article in the newspaper asking each candidate what would 2008 say and Layton was the only one who actually had some fucking goals focusing mainly on the environment and social services while Harper was playing the sponsorship scandal card like Bush played "Clinton is a whore" card back in 00. Martin was better than Harper, but was fucking vague on a lot of stuff.

[Guest MikeSC]

OK, so, what IS Canada? Is it a British protectorate? Is it COMPLETELY independent from Britain?

-=Mike

[Highland 0]

OK, so, what IS Canada? Is it a British protectorate? Is it COMPLETELY independent from Britain?

-=Mike

1) A very large (land size) country located to the north of the continuous United States and east of Alaska.

 

2) No.

 

3) Yes.

[Highland 0]

My riding has yet to nominate any candidates, but it'll probably go Liberal if only because most people here have the same voting patterns as Redbaron stated.

[Kahran Ramsus 0]

Actually we are not 'completely' independent from Britain. In all practical terms we are, but formally we're still a dominion of their empire. Queen Elizabeth II is our official head of state.

[Kahran Ramsus 0]

No system is 100% perfect. There will always be mistakes. If an innocent man gets the death penalty, one innocent man dies. If a guilty man goes free, several innocents may die. Several is worse than one.

[Highland 0]

Actually we are not 'completely' independent from Britain.  In all practical terms we are, but formally we're still a dominion of their empire.  Queen Elizabeth II is our official head of state.

She is only a figurehead, and her representative, the GG, has no real power either. It would not make one whit of difference in how Canada conducts its affairs if it abolishes its ties to the monarchy or not.

Edited June 3, 2004 by Naibus

[RavishingRickRudo 0]

Yeah, but the GG's signature is still needed on all bills and legislation. So to say that we've "completely" moved away from Britain is not true.

[Highland 0]

The GG post ia ceremonial formality. She is a figurehead appointed by the PM, and although her signature is used for Acts of Parliament, she cannot reject any bill submitted to her by the HoC and Senate (the latter I really believe needs to be abolished or eleectable)

Edited June 3, 2004 by Naibus

[Kahran Ramsus 0]

Actually we are not 'completely' independent from Britain.  In all practical terms we are, but formally we're still a dominion of their empire.  Queen Elizabeth II is our official head of state.

She is only a figurehead, and her representative, the GG, has no real power either. It would not make one whit of difference in how Canada conducts its affairs if it abolishes its ties to the monarchy or not.

That's what I was saying. Britain has absolutely no influence on us, yet officially we are linked to them.

[starvenger 0]

When I lived in Vancouver-Burnaby I voted for Svend Robinson, I'm not sure who I'll be voting for this time although it probably doesn't matter since up here the conservatives will win handily.

Svend withdrew, and Martin appointed the former BC premier to run there.

 

That's what I was saying. Britain has absolutely no influence on us, yet officially we are linked to them.

The term you're looking for is Constitutional Monarchy.

 

Myself, I'll probably vote Liberal, but I see them as a thin majority, as the Reformative Alliance seems to have some legs. But then, their leader isn't making idiotic promises like Stockwell "Doris" Day did.

 

As for the NDP, does Layton even have a seat right now?

[Red Baron 0]

Layton will get most of his seats in Nothern Ontario and Atlantic Canada I presume.

 

But then, their leader isn't making idiotic promises like Stockwell "Doris" Day did.

 

What promises does he have, when the party has no real platform except bashing Liberals

[Kahran Ramsus 0]

The term you're looking for is Constitutional Monarchy.

 

Not quite. That is just our form of government. It just means we have a monarch, but the power belongs to an elected parliament. It says nothing about whether the monarch is a foreign or domestic one.

 

Layton will get most of his seats in Nothern Ontario and Atlantic Canada I presume.

 

Saskatchewan is a big NDP province generally.

 

I'm voting against the Liberals more than for the Conservatives. The last 11 years have crippled the country and AdScam was the last straw. I like Martin, but we need change.

[Highland 0]

I'm voting against the Liberals more than for the Conservatives. The last 11 years have crippled the country and AdScam was the last straw. I like Martin, but we need change.

 

That is pretty much going to be my deciding factor when I vote: I don't necessarily like the other parties, but the Liberals have been in power far too long and it shows.

[starvenger 0]

But then, their leader isn't making idiotic promises like Stockwell "Doris" Day did.

 

What promises does he have, when the party has no real platform except bashing Liberals

None that I know of, but then it's hard to follow when you're living in Houston. But considering that Day shot himself in the foot with that promise (and Rick Mercer had a field day with it), maybe not promising anything is not a bad idea for Harper.

 

BTW, is it true that Layton is promising 2 extra holidays per year?