Vanhalen 0 Report post Posted June 23, 2004 You guys over there are following the November election closer than me obviously, so are these good odds for Kerry to win the election? http://bestbetting.com/Default.aspx?bettin...son&eventtype=0 Cos I quite fancy having a tenner on him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest INXS Report post Posted June 23, 2004 Not really. It means for every £11 you put on you would get £10 back (as well as your £11 stake). I think betting against Bush is going to be pointless as the fix will no doubt be in this year as well Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Salacious Crumb Report post Posted June 23, 2004 Betting on Kerry isn't a terribly smart idea IMO. Bush has the incumbent advantage, Kerry can't win in the South and despite how horrible the last 3 months have been for the Bush administration Kerry hasn't been able to pull away at all. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vanhalen 0 Report post Posted June 23, 2004 What about Bushes odds, you reckon its worth a tenner on that? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest INXS Report post Posted June 23, 2004 You'd really have to put more than a tenner on Bush to make it worthwhile. The odds are so short that you stand to make much less than you put on (tho if you win you get your stake back). In other words, you're risking losing a tenner to make less than £4. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Salacious Crumb Report post Posted June 23, 2004 If you really want to find bets find a place that has bets on which states they'll win. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jobber of the Week 0 Report post Posted June 23, 2004 Keep in mind everyone's "odds" kind of depends on their politics. I think the past month has been good news for Bush, comparatively. The prison scandal is, at last, old news. We've had the June 30th news blasted at our eyeballs constantly. The news and inquiries about torture at Gitmo don't have flashy pictures and naked people pyramids to catch their attention. So all and all, it's been good for Bush. But the recent polls by the Washington Post show Kerry having almost a 10% lead over Bush. They're tied on how they'd handle terrorism (despite Kerry having no terror record) and Bush's disapproval rating now eeks out his approval rating. In short, all this good news has done nothing. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Art Sandusky 0 Report post Posted June 23, 2004 Like I've said before, it doesn't matter much what happens outside of some catastrophic scandal on either side between now and November. 90% of the states' votes might as well already be in, and it'll still be close not because there aren't so many pro-Kerry voters as there are anti-Bush voters. If I had to pick a winner right now I'd give it to Bush, but there's still Kerry's VP pick, the conventions, late campaigning in battleground states (Missouri = BIG), all that to go still. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kkktookmybabyaway 0 Report post Posted June 23, 2004 Not really. It means for every £11 you put on you would get £10 back (as well as your £11 stake). Ha. Bet on a Democrat and you end up owing money if you win... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Stephen Joseph 0 Report post Posted June 23, 2004 Baron, I looked at those odds. Let's see what I get All politics aside, here's a simple formula on placing a bet. Place the bet if the expected payoff is positive and better than you could do in ANY alternative. If I thought about things, I would give Bush a slight statistical advantage to being re-elected over Kerry's chances to be elected (55/45) Not that this statistical advantage was gleamed from previous election years results and current conditions. Some economist keeps probability numbers. Anywho. you have two outcomes. win or lose Outcome 1: 10 + 11*.45=14.95 Outcome 2: -10 Weighting: -10*.55 + 1495*.45 -5.5+6.73 Expected payoff, about 1 pound Therefore Baron, if you took this bet, your expected payoff is a pound. Even though the payoff is positive, its not positive by much. I think you could find a better place for your money. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vanhalen 0 Report post Posted June 23, 2004 Maybe I will stick to betting on Euro 2004 then! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
