Pitch Counts

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

For the past few years, Baseball Prospectus and various writers have trumpeted the idea of limiting pitch counts as a way of preventing pitcher injuries. Certainly, injuries to Kerry Wood, A.J. Burnett and others have lend credence to this theory, and the idea of letting a pitcher go past 120 pitches is considered insane. However, noted baseball writer Bill James has called the theory into question, and that some pitchers like Livan Hernandez can lead the league in Pitcher Abuse Points and pitch effectively, without injuries, year after year would indicate maybe there are some flaws in the system.

 

James states that limiting pitches for pitchers under 25 is a good idea, but that for mature pitchers, there is no relation between pitch counts and injuries. Not to say a pitcher can throw an infinate amount of pitches, but James argues that a pitcher's endurance level can be trained, much like a distance runner.

 

So what do you guys think? Are pitch counts a useful tool, or are we barking up the wrong tree?

[HarleyQuinn 0]

I don't know if pitch counts necessarily work because if you look back at the early 1900's and such with guys like Cy Young, Walter Johnson and Christy Mathewson they'd throw such a large amount of innings with very little days rest. Add in the fact that they probably weren't in as good a shape as the men on the field today and I think it becomes questionable. I do think that a lot of pitchers today could handle 2/3rds of the IP of those guys with 3 days rest in between but with the influx of relievers it's made the starting pitchers basically "effective" in a coaches mind for 6-8 IP max with the rare full game starter out there. I also think that the 5 days rest between games may have something to do with the lack of health to pitchers because that's a long time to wait in between throwing 90-100+ pitches in a game.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

don't know if pitch counts necessarily work because if you look back at the early 1900's and such with guys like Cy Young, Walter Johnson and Christy Mathewson they'd throw such a large amount of innings with very little days rest.

 

That is the spur of James' argument. Gaylord Perry, Steve Carlton, Bert Blyleven, Nolan Ryan, Ferguson Jenkins, Wilbur Wood, Jim Palmer, and Catfish Hunter pitched huge numbers of innings, and kept their arms intact.

 

Pitchers from the dead-ball era aren't a good reference because pitching was easier then. Pitchers threw the spitball, and the ball was impossible to get out of the infield.

 

I do think that a lot of pitchers today could handle 2/3rds of the IP of those guys with 3 days rest in between but with the influx of relievers it's made the starting pitchers basically "effective" in a coaches mind for 6-8 IP max with the rare full game starter out there.

 

One factor that is never mentioned in the drop of complete games is the pinch hitter. In a close game, the manager would never let his pitcher hit in the 8th or 9th inning, because his team needs the offense. Relief pitching has also made the bullpen move desireable. A fresh reliever is simply a better option, and so there's no need to keep your starters in.

 

I also think that the 5 days rest between games may have something to do with the lack of health to pitchers because that's a long time to wait in between throwing 90-100+ pitches in a game.

 

Its actually four games rest most of the time, and sometimes five days, depending on whether there is an off day in the schedule.

 

We will never see the era of Mathewson, Johnson, and Young again. Nor should pitchers start throwing 140+ pitches just because there is a flaw in using pitch counts. But it is worth considering that it might not be horrible to use a perfectly healthy pitcher. But even then you might not see it often, because as I stated before, a fresh reliever is generally more effective.

[Guest Smell the ratings!!!]

I think pitch counts are a much bigger concern for younger pitchers (like Wood, Burnett, and apparently Prior and Halladay too). There are exceptions like Burhele, Zito, Sabathia, but it's almost exclusivly younger guys who come down with the real serious arm problems.

[Dr. Tom 0]

As a Roto player, I'm leery of pitchers who have piled up high IP and Batters Faced per Game numbers early in their careers. That kind of arm abuse can damage someone for years, sometimes to the point that they never recover from it.

 

I think one thing that's lost in this discussion of pitch counts is the society at the time guys like Palmer, Gibson et al were racking up 300+ IP per year. Kids and teenagers were much more physically active then. There were no malls to hang out at on the weekends, there were no video games to play, and there was no internet to suck people in. If kids wanted to do something, it involved doing something physical, which meant playing sports all year round. When fellows like Palmer and Gibson were young, they probably played baseball every day for six months, and then other sports during the rest of the year. Their arms developed resiliency early as a result of that. Now, today's young pitchers were raised in the era of malls and Playstations, and high IP totals and pitch counts are damaging to their arms. I don't think this is a coincidence.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

Well one's gotta wonder then because in college pitchers can easily go 115+ in most games that they start which shows that they may still have resiliency as you said DT. Although since they're so young, it probably makes them more susceptible to arm injuries once they reach the majors.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

As for Livan, he's an exception. There's probably no pitch counts in Cuba either, so he's more durable.

 

Pitch counts didn't prevent injuries to Asencio, Hernandez, Snyder.. so on, and so on..

[The Czech Republic 0]

There's probably no pitch counts in Cuba

Pitch counts are a tool of capitalist pigs! ¡Viva la Revolution!

[JHawk 0]

My main problem with pitch counts is they don't take into account how well the guy's pitching.

 

At the Indians game i was at a couple of weeks ago, C.C. Sabathia was taken out of the game after the 5th inning because his pitch count was at 97 pitches...even though the fifth inning was his best inning of the entire game.

 

In order to pitch a complete game in this day and age, assuming your pitch count is 100, you have to average just 11 pitches an inning. how often is that really possible?

[Dr. Tom 0]

Well one's gotta wonder then because in college pitchers can easily go 115+ in most games that they start which shows that they may still have resiliency as you said DT.

Some, but not to the degree that many of the old-timers had. The thing I was getting as is that guys like Jim Palmer and Bob Gibson were playing baseball and other sports year-round, probably from the time they were 5 or 6 years old. Their arms developed a lot earlier and a lot better than young kids today, who have so many more distractions (video games, internet, etc) to keep them from being physically active. It's a much different era, and I think the fragility of young arms is one of the consequences of the more sedentary lifestyle we lead today as opposed to the 40s-70s.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Pitchers like Gibson, and Carlton also threw on 3 days rest, and didn't have a pitch count. Their entire professional career. Today's pitchers from the minors up have 4 days off, and are limited in the number of pitches they can throw.

 

One thing teams should avoid. Is a rapid increase in innings pitched for a young pitcher.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

It is worth noting that there are pitchers from that era, such as Gary Nolan, who were burnt out by the overuse. An argument can be made that Carlton, Blyleven, etc. were simply the survivors of overuse. Other pitchers, such as Mark Fidrych, Daffy Dean, Smokey Joe Wood, and Dwight Gooden pitched a large number of innings when young, and burnt out quite early in their careers.