TSM Game Chatter Thread

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

This weekend we have Philadelphia @ Los Angeles, Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco, Cleveland @ Chicago WS, and Oakland @ Minnesota. The biggest game of the weekend is Saturday, as the Cubs and Giants face off, with Greg Maddux seeking his 300th win.

[Guest Staravenger]

I hope Maddux gets the job done this time. I just hope he doesn't pull a Clemens and take 4 or 5 attempts to get it.

[Bored 0]

Even as an A's fan I'd like to come out in support of Johan Santana for Cy Young. The mental morons at ESPN and baseball writers are already casting their vote for Mark Mulder because of his 15-3 record. Mulder is a great pitcher and deserves consideration but Santana has been the better pitcher so far this year.

 

Mulder: 3.50 ERA, 8.1 H/9, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9

 

Santana: 3.30 ERA, 6.4 H/9, 2.4 BB/9, 10.2 K/9

 

Now reason why Santana isn't getting serious consideration at the moment is becuase of his 10-6 record which doesn't blow anyone away and doesn't catch the attention of the John Kruk's of the world. Hell you'll hear Kenny Rogers name more about the Cy Young than Santana's even though he has an ERA almost a run higher but Kenny has a 13-4 record. Mulder's superior record is because of the amazing run support he's received from a generally average A's offense. Mulder receives 7.39 runs per game (4th in the A.L.) to Santana's 4.54 (35th in the A.L.). But of course you can't expect the "experts" to actually look up rather simple statistics (nothing sabermatic about this) that tell you that Santana has been better. Now still a lot of season to go so Mulder could pitch lights out the rest of the season and Santana could comeback down to earth. But right now Santana is my Cy Young pick.

[the max 0]

If Johan Santana were a pork chop, I bet Kruk would pay attention.

 

I'm going for Santana in the A.L.

[Guest]

Philadelphia @ Los Angeles

That's going to be the best series this weekend.

[Brett Favre 0]

Santana's always been this good, so I expect him to continue. It's always been his W/L records that's held him back.

[Guest Anglesault]

Well, we've got some more god damn Devil Jay games coming up.

[Brett Favre 0]

Well, we've got some more god damn Devil Jay games coming up.

Let the excitement begin.

[treble 0]

The 3 games last week at SkyDome were pretty entertaining. 2 of them went into extra innings and the other wasn't decided until the 7th or 8th, I believe. Really, of the 5 they've played so far this year, only 1 wasn't close. 2 games decided by walk-off homers is nothing to sneeze at.

[Guest Anglesault]

The 3 games last week at SkyDome were pretty entertaining. 2 of them went into extra innings and the other wasn't decided until the 7th or 8th, I believe. Really, of the 5 they've played so far this year, only 1 wasn't close. 2 games decided by walk-off homers is nothing to sneeze at.

I've seen better.

[treble 0]

I'm not saying they were classics, just that the majority of them weren't exactly snoozers.

[Guest Anglesault]

The Lilly vs. Duque game was really good. The others were all pretty average.

Edited August 6, 2004 by Anglesault

[Vern Gagne 0]

Even as an A's fan I'd like to come out in support of Johan Santana for Cy Young. The mental morons at ESPN and baseball writers are already casting their vote for Mark Mulder because of his 15-3 record. Mulder is a great pitcher and deserves consideration but Santana has been the better pitcher so far this year.

 

Mulder: 3.50 ERA, 8.1 H/9, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9

 

Santana: 3.30 ERA, 6.4 H/9, 2.4 BB/9, 10.2 K/9

 

Now reason why Santana isn't getting serious consideration at the moment is becuase of his 10-6 record which doesn't blow anyone away and doesn't catch the attention of the John Kruk's of the world. Hell you'll hear Kenny Rogers name more about the Cy Young than Santana's even though he has an ERA almost a run higher but Kenny has a 13-4 record. Mulder's superior record is because of the amazing run support he's received from a generally average A's offense. Mulder receives 7.39 runs per game (4th in the A.L.) to Santana's 4.54 (35th in the A.L.). But of course you can't expect the "experts" to actually look up rather simple statistics (nothing sabermatic about this) that tell you that Santana has been better. Now still a lot of season to go so Mulder could pitch lights out the rest of the season and Santana could comeback down to earth. But right now Santana is my Cy Young pick.

Thank you Bored, and everyone else. Santana had at least 2 games with no run support. He should have 2 more wins.

 

Santana's been special to watch. I'll go has far to say the best stretch of pitching in this franchises history since Walter Johnson.

 

The series itself. I'll settle for a split. The Twins have the advantage Fri-Sat, the A's Sun-Mon.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

When I printed the Win Shares leaders a few days ago, Mulder had a slight edge on Johan Santana. So its not quite a slam dunk for Santana even if you dig into the stats. Although I like Santana. I stuck with him on my fantasy squads, and its paying off big time.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

The Dodgers have won 4 games in a row since trading their heart and soul, and are now 6.5 games up in the National League West.

[Vanhalen 0]

WTF, you don't want a thread for the biggest sports event in the world, and yet you pin this?

[the max 0]

He said that we're not going to have one thread for the Olympics not a thread.

 

This gets pinned every week, by the way...

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

WTF, you don't want a thread for the biggest sports event in the world, and yet you pin this?

Yes. Rest assured, we will discuss the Olympics when it comes around, and it should receive its just due. But a OaO thread for the Olympics is bordering on insanity. There's a couple dozen different events occuring over a period of two weeks. No one wants to slog through 30 pages of posts to try and discuss the events.

[JHawk 0]

When I printed the Win Shares leaders a few days ago, Mulder had a slight edge on Johan Santana.

 

How exactly are win shares determined, Al? Especially when it comes to pitching where there are so many other intangibles affecting a pitcher's W/L record that don't necessarily have anything to do with how the pitcher performs?

[Der Kommissar 0]

Well, we've got some more god damn Devil Jay games coming up.

 

Aren't they now trying to be call the rather generic "Rays" and "Jays"? Or did they decide to drop that whole idea?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

When I printed the Win Shares leaders a few days ago, Mulder had a slight edge on Johan Santana.

 

How exactly are win shares determined, Al? Especially when it comes to pitching where there are so many other intangibles affecting a pitcher's W/L record that don't necessarily have anything to do with how the pitcher performs?

In short, Win shares take the team's actual wins, multiply them by three, and attribute them to individual players. Three is used because it results in useful integers. Full wins would be too vauge. The system makes allowances for era and park factors. So a hitter is not handicapped by playing in a poor hitters' environment, and vice versa.

 

The win shares are divided between offense and defense. From defense, they are divided between pitching and fielding. To divide shares between pitching and fielding, Bill James uses fielding independant pitching statistics (Walks, Strikeouts, Home Runs), a few fielding statistics, and a modified defensive efficiency rating.

 

Once the percentage of win shares are assigned to pitchers, they are then divided among individual pitchers. This is done mainly via runs allowed. The system also makes a small allowance for wins and losses, relief innings, and the pitcher's hitting record.

 

Looking at the stats of Mulder and Santana, the Win Shares system likely chose Mulder based on his larger numbers of innings pitched, and less home runs allowed. Now keep in mind that these stats were last computed on August 1, the difference between Mulder and Santana was less than half a share, and Mulder pitched poorly on Tuesday. So it is likely that Santana has surpassed Mulder.

 

The full Win Shares system takes over 100 pages to explain, most of which consist of fielding. The system makes many more small variances that I have not explained, nor have the time or energy to explain. If anyone has a specific question, however, I will be glad to answer it.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

The Orioles finally play the Rangers this weekend. Should be interesting.

[Fuzzy Dunlop 0]

At first I was skeptical of Maddux's chances with Schmidt opposing him Saturday, but apparently the Giants have moved him up a night.

[sfaJack 0]

Yep, and when you couple the Cubs' inexplicable offensive struggles when Clement is on the mound with the fact that they're facing Jason Schmidt, it looks like another "tough luck Matt we'll get 'em for you next time" loss for Clement.

 

Houston starts a series at home against the Expos tonight. Anything less than a sweep is pretty bad for the Astros.

[strummer 0]

The Mariners trade Mike Myers to the Red Sox for a player to be named later and cash.

 

I had heard reports that Francona thought he was using Embry too much, so this is probably why the move was made.

[2GOLD 0]

Yep, and when you couple the Cubs' inexplicable offensive struggles when Clement is on the mound with the fact that they're facing Jason Schmidt, it looks like another "tough luck Matt we'll get 'em for you next time" loss for Clement.

 

Houston starts a series at home against the Expos tonight. Anything less than a sweep is pretty bad for the Astros.

 

It's really sad knowing that if the Cubs scored about 3 runs a game and the bullpen didn't blow every lead he got, Clement has pitched well enough to have 12 wins right now.

 

The guy has no damn luck.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

Ya know what's crazy? Francona could be using guys like Mark Malaska, Ramiro Mendoza among others but instead chooses to focus on using Alan Embree and Mike Timlin thus wearing them down. Ugh...now watch Francona use Myers for a couple games and start to ignore him too.

 

Mike Timlin: 54.2 IP(Last pitched August 5th)

Alan Embree: 39.1 IP(Last pitched August 2nd)

Mark Malaska: 20.0 IP(Last pitched July 24th)

Terry Adams: 1.0 IP w/Boston(Last pitched July 26th)

Ramiro Mendoza: 8.2 IP(Last pitched July 26th)

Keith Foulke: 56.0 IP(Last pitched August 2nd)

 

Figured I'd toss Foulke in for comparison

[Big McLargeHuge 0]

Yep, and when you couple the Cubs' inexplicable offensive struggles when Clement is on the mound with the fact that they're facing Jason Schmidt, it looks like another "tough luck Matt we'll get 'em for you next time" loss for Clement.

 

Houston starts a series at home against the Expos tonight. Anything less than a sweep is pretty bad for the Astros.

If Clement can hang in there for 7 innings, the Giants bullpen should give up 20 or 30 runs to give him the edge. So it's not all bad for the Cubbies.

[Guest Staravenger]

Few minutes late: H. Matsui with a 3 run homer off the Blue Jays to tie the game up at...you guessed it, 3. Still 1st inning though...

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Terrible call from the Yankees/Blue Jays game, as Sean Douglass was tossed from the game for hitting a batter in the second inning. Even the Yankees announcers are calling bullshit.