Poll shows solidly Dem state leaning to Bush

[teke184 0]

Article

 

Hawai'i Poll: Bush, Kerry in dead heat

 

By Derrick DePledge

Advertiser Capitol Bureau

 

President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are deadlocked among likely voters in Hawai'i, a surprising boost for the Republican president in a state that many Democrats had considered safe for Kerry.

 

The findings of the Honolulu Advertiser Hawai'i Poll suggest that Hawai'i's four electoral votes are in play with just over a week to go before the election. Nationally, other opinion polls have found that Bush and Kerry are essentially tied for the popular vote.

 

The Hawai'i Poll, taken among 600 likely voters statewide between Oct. 13 and Monday, had Bush at 43.3 percent and Kerry at 42.6 percent. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.

 

A large number of voters, 12 percent, said they were still undecided, giving supporters of both candidates hope during the final days of the campaign.

 

With the race so close, Hawai'i could be a factor in the election, which could energize get-out-the-vote drives across the Islands and increase voter turnout.

 

Although the candidates have concentrated mostly on large swing states such as Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, smaller states such as Iowa and New Hampshire — with seven and four electoral votes, respectively — have been important parts of the puzzle because many voters there are undecided. The winner needs 270 electoral votes.

 

"It is shocking," said Greg Gaydos, an associate professor of political science at Hawai'i Pacific University. "I'd say it's very bad news for Kerry if he's tied in a state like Hawai'i."

 

Hawai'i's strong Democratic tradition still makes the state favorable for Kerry, several political analysts said, but the Massachusetts Democrat has yet to capitalize even though many voters here appear uncomfortable with Bush over the war in Iraq.

 

Iraq reservations

 

A majority of voters interviewed in the Hawai'i Poll believe the Bush administration misled the nation on the rationale for war. Voters also disagreed with the president that the war made the world safer and doubt the United States will withdraw troops from Iraq on schedule.

 

Even with these reservations, people here have not turned against the president. Nearly a third of the people who plan to vote for Bush described themselves as Democrats while only 5 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Kerry.

 

"I'm a Democrat but I strongly support what President Bush is doing," said Jun Elegino, a nursing student at Hawai'i Pacific University who serves in the Army National Guard. "He's my commander in chief."

 

Leilani Anderson-Kaisa, an educational assistant who lives in Wai'anae and has family in the military, said she had voted for Democrats in the past but believes Bush has done a solid job. "I just think he's been a very good president," she said.

 

Rebecca Ward, the president of Ward Research, which conducted the poll for The Advertiser, said the findings "do not look like traditional Hawai'i."

 

Hawai'i voters, since statehood, have only chosen Republican presidential candidates twice; Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984. Both Nixon and Reagan, like Bush this year, were running for re-election.

 

A Hawai'i Poll just before the 2000 election had Democrat Al Gore ahead of Bush 50 percent to 31 percent.

 

Support from Military

 

Several voters told The Advertiser that the decision to replace the president in the middle of a war is difficult. Thousands of Hawai'i-based soldiers are deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan, and support for Bush in the state's large military community may be offsetting the people here who are concerned about the direction of the war.

 

Many of the Democrats who favor Bush, according to Ward, tend to be Filipino, women and younger voters who may not yet have strong party ties.

 

Ward also said many voters of Japanese descent who typically vote for Democrats seem to be undecided. She said she found a similar trend during the 2002 governor's campaign, when Linda Lingle became the first Republican to win in 40 years.

 

"There's still a big 'don't know,' " Ward said. "What that tells me is that they're really conflicted."

 

Some voters were surprised that Bush was doing so well. Max Botticelli, the president of University Health Alliance, said he voted for Bush in 2000 but has been disappointed. He said the war in Iraq was "ill-advised and poorly implemented." He also disagrees with Bush's opposition to abortion and embryonic stem-cell research.

 

"I consider it one of my bigger mistakes," Botticelli said of his vote for Bush.

 

Leaders of both major political parties in Hawai'i see the poll results as an opportunity.

 

Lingle, who attended the final presidential debate as Bush's guest and campaigned for the president on the Mainland, said Bush's strength here shows that Hawai'i voters are increasingly more likely to look beyond traditional political labels and judge candidates by their actions. The governor said Bush's tax cuts have helped the state's economy and his resolve against terrorism after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks has made people feel safer about traveling.

 

"People trust him to keep the country safe," Lingle said. "They don't want to have a change in such a dangerous time in the country and the world's history."

 

Crossing party lines

 

Many Democrats crossed party lines to vote for Lingle two years ago but her victory did not help Republicans in the state House and Senate. Republicans here are cautious about projecting any potential Bush surge onto other GOP contenders.

 

"We're just trying to make people more comfortable about voting Republican," said Brennon Morioka, the state's GOP chairman. "There used to be such a stigma here."

 

Higher voter turnout typically favors Democrats in Hawai'i, but both parties have planned extensive outreach campaigns over the next week to get their supporters to the polls. One wild card could be whether the 21,000 new voters who registered since the September primary will break toward one candidate or party.

 

Jadine Nielsen, the state coordinator for the Democratic National Committee, said she remains confident that Kerry will win in Hawai'i. She said U.S. Sen. Dan Inouye, D-Hawai'i, is mentioning the importance of a Kerry victory during events for his re-election campaign. The senator has also prepared recorded telephone calls to voters in support of Kerry.

 

Nielsen believes that Inouye and Kerry, both decorated combat veterans who have been critical of Bush's handling of Iraq, will carry weight among military families and people who oppose the war.

 

"It's clear that Bush has the wrong priorities and has taken us in the wrong direction," Nielsen said. "I think our message will resonate."

 

Brickwood Galuteria, the chairman of the Hawai'i Democratic Party, said the party had paid for local Kerry radio advertisements and is considering a local television ad purchase. The Kerry and Bush commercials that have run in Hawai'i have been national television buys.

 

"No panic buttons from me," Galuteria said. "We just have to work it hard. I have confidence in our voters."

 

Larry Church, a builder in Hilo, Hawai'i, said he respected the fact that Kerry served in Vietnam but had the courage to speak out against the war when he came home. Some veterans have felt that Kerry betrayed them, but others see his stand as a sign of strength.

 

"He was probably carrying a lot of people's concerns," Church said.

 

Christina Cernansky, who recently graduated from Florida Atlantic University and is living here while caring for her aunt, said she favors Kerry for his support for abortion rights and believes he will protect the environment better than Bush. She also said Kerry would help repair America's image internationally, which she believes has been tarnished by Bush's policies in Iraq.

 

"He's seen the faces of war," Cernansky said as she marched in a Kerry rally near the state Capitol yesterday. "It gives him a completely different perspective."

 

 

Considering that the only times Hawaii has gone Republican in its history have been in landslide elections for Nixon (1972) and Reagan (1984), this could be showing that Kerry is in bigger trouble than anyone seems to realize.

[kkktookmybabyaway 0]

I doubt this represents a nation-wide trend, but this is surprising. If I remember correctly, Dennis K. got a decent showing in the Dem primary here (at least for him)...

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

It's not that great of a sign for Bush that he's at 43%. The only third party candidates on the ballot are Badnarik and Cobb and unless they can get 15% combined, then Bush won't win Hawaii with those current numbers.

 

This is sorta like the stories that New Jersey is a tossup. Or the stories that Deleware was going to be a tossup in 2000.

[bob_barron 0]

New Jersey was a tossup a few weeks ago but I think has settled into a solid Kerry state.

 

Still the fact that NJ was close is not a good sign.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

nah.. it's more of a bizarre trend. It's not due to Kerry, but due to McGreevey.

 

Gore won New Jersey by 15 points, but Kerry will probably win it by a smaller margin.

 

but this is effective bait to get a larger polling operation to run Hawaii

[bob_barron 0]

FD Public Mind is the weirdest poll ever. They always have NJ tied or leaning Bush even though every poll now shows Kerry is starting to pull away.

 

I don't think the Bush camp was going to try NJ since it meant running a lot of expensive ads in NY markets. Qunnipiac and Strategic Vision (Yes I know...) are the only polls that have NJ still remotely close

[teke184 0]

nah.. it's more of a bizarre trend. It's not due to Kerry, but due to McGreevey.

 

Gore won New Jersey by 15 points, but Kerry will probably win it by a smaller margin.

 

but this is effective bait to get a larger polling operation to run Hawaii

New Jersey was affected by more than McGreevy...

 

 

New Jersey is one of the states most directly affected by the War On Terror between NJ residents directly affected by 9/11 as well as the other terror alerts on targets in New Jersey such as banks in Newark.

 

In addition, New Jersey was just across the river from the Republican convention in NYC, so they got a lot of coverage on what was going on there, which may or may not have taken hold there.

 

 

Kerry may still win New Jersey but, if it's tight, it is NOT just because the soon-to-resign governor pissed off the Dem base there.

[bob_barron 0]

The Hawaii thing could be an aberration.

 

There were a couple of polls that had Kerry only up by 5 or 6 in New York that sparked some interest but now he's back up to 20-25.

[teke184 0]

The Hawaii thing could be an aberration.

 

There were a couple of polls that had Kerry only up by 5 or 6 in New York that sparked some interest but now he's back up to 20-25.

Hawaii may still go for Kerry but ANY increased attention that the Democrats have to give it takes resources away from important battleground states like Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, and Ohio.

 

 

This follows the current theory that the Dems are trying to rally their base rather than attack in Bush's states.

 

The biggest piece of news that confirms this to me is Bill Clinton getting out of his hospital bed to campaign for Kerry in Pennsylvania. While Pennsylvania is an important state in this election, it's a traditional Democrat state and one that's seen as being in Kerry's column already. If Kerry's having to call in the big guns to hold a state already seen as leaning towards him, it doesn't bode well for him in other battlegrounds.

[bob_barron 0]

I know- I'm just saying don't get too excited about it. I freaked out over my state possibly being up for grabs and then a week later it was back to normal.

 

The polls show Kerry pulling away in PA:

 

RCP Average | 10/15 - 10/20 - - 45.3 49.3 Off Ballot Kerry +4.0

Quinnipiac | 10/16-10/20 841 LV 3.4 46 51 - Kerry +5

Strategic Vision ® | 10/17-10/19 801 LV 3.0 46 47 - Kerry +1

Mason-Dixon | 10/15-10/18 625 LV 4.0 45 46 - Kerry +1

SurveyUSA | 10/15-10/17 619 LV 4.0 45 51 - Kerry +6

Quinnipiac | 10/9-10/11 1343 LV 2.7 47 49 - Kerry +2

Rasmussen | 10/6-10/12 578 LV 4.0 46 47 - Kerry +1

 

 

Damn you PA Supreme Court! Let Nader run!

[bob_barron 0]

At least Bush is still solidly leading in Alaska.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

New Jersey was affected by more than McGreevy...

The average of the polls before McGreevey's resignation:

 

48-43 Kerry

 

Even ARG, which had a tie in June, had Kerry up 7 on August 5th.

 

New Jersey is one of the states most directly affected by the War On Terror between NJ residents directly affected by 9/11 as well as the other terror alerts on targets in New Jersey such as banks in Newark.

 

And Northeast New Jersey and Newark will most likely go for Kerry by large numbers.

 

according to the maps, Northwest New Jersey goes Republican and Southern New Jersey could also go Republican.

 

Hudson county, the home of Newark, went 71-26 for Gore. So there's hope for Bush that he could break 30%

 

In addition, New Jersey was just across the river from the Republican convention in NYC, so they got a lot of coverage on what was going on there, which may or may not have taken hold there.

 

Those in the strong-Democrat part of the state did get to hear a bit about it.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/a...hawaii_stakes_1

 

Democratic strategists in Washington privately admit they have neglected Hawaii, but no more. They have dispatched political operatives to shore up Kerry's support and believe the race is now about as close as Washington state and Oregon, two long-standing battlegrounds that both parties think are leaning toward Kerry.

 

that move would also say a bit about the state of the race in the Pacific Northwest.

[bob_barron 0]

It seems like Washington has been going Kerry for a long time.

 

Oregon's been up and down but it looks like Kerry might be pulling away

[teke184 0]

Kerry having to spend precious resources this late in the game to keep Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington in his column are going to bite him in the ass when he loses Iowa or Wisconsin (Gore states in 2000) or doesn't take New Hampshire or Ohio (Bush states in 2000).

[bob_barron 0]

Bush is leading in Iowa (except for one recent poll) Iowa could create a domino effect and cause Wisconsin and Minnesota to fall to Bush.

 

If he gets those three states then Kerry is in trouble.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

Kerry having to spend precious resources this late in the game to keep Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington in his column are going to bite him in the ass when he loses Iowa or Wisconsin (Gore states in 2000) or doesn't take New Hampshire or Ohio (Bush states in 2000).

I'm pretty sure Kerry's not holding back on the resources for other states due to the Northwest.

[Kahran Ramsus 0]

Bush is leading in Iowa (except for one recent poll) Iowa could create a domino effect and cause Wisconsin and Minnesota to fall to Bush.

 

If he gets those three states then Kerry is in trouble.

He would need all three of Pennyslvania, Ohio & Florida then.

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

You guys really are making it sound like it's some huge deal that the DNC is spending minimal -- instead of no -- resources in Hawaii. It's really not. You're making mountains out of molehills.

[bob_barron 0]

Bush takes lead

in Hawaii poll

 

The president erases a

7 percent August gap, but

Democrats remain confident

 

By Richard Borreca

[email protected]

 

President Bush is now ahead of Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, according to a new statewide Star-Bulletin and KITV 4 News poll.

 

The numbers show a shift in Hawaii voters towards the Republican president. The new poll of 612 registered voters who said they are likely to vote in the election has Bush with a one percent lead. In August, Kerry was leading by seven percentage points.

 

The margin of error is plus or minus four points. The poll was taken Oct. 17 to 20 by Hawaii-based SMS Research.

 

The poll also shows that as the race draws to a conclusion, more voters are making up their minds. The undecided group shrank from 11 percent in August to nine percent last week.

 

Until this poll, Hawaii has been considered to be a a solid, strong bastion for Kerry and the Democrats because only twice in Hawaii's state history has it voted for a Republican. But Hawaii has always voted for the incumbent president who wins a second term. Hawaii voted for Richard Nixon's second term, Ronald Reagan's second term and Bill Clinton's second term. Hawaii has four electoral votes.

In the 2000 presidential race, Hawaii was a strong Democratic state and Bush had only 37 percent of the vote.

 

Bush is winning 51 percent of the male vote in Hawaii, while Kerry is picking up 47 percent of the female vote. Bush also leads with more than half of the vote among those 35 to 44 and those 55 to 64. Kerry is strongest in Hawaii with younger voters. He has 60 percent of those 18 to 24 and 54 percent of those 25 to 34.

 

According to the poll's breakdown along ethnic lines, Caucasians equally support Bush and Kerry. But, Filipino-American voters are overwhelmingly in support of Bush, by a 56 to 36 percent margin. Half of Japanese-American voters support Kerry, while more than half of the Hawaiian and part-Hawaiian voters support Bush.

 

Gov. Linda Lingle, the titular head of the Hawaii GOP, said Hawaii voters are responding to Bush's strong image as a wartime leader.

 

The governor added two more reasons she thinks Bush is pulling ahead in Hawaii. First, a strong local economy is spreading more money through the state, and then Lingle herself just completed a swing through the mainland for Bush and was singled out by Bush.

 

"People feel the president paid a lot of respect to our state by the role they asked us to play," Lingle said.

 

"To come from a small state that hardly ever votes Republican and that has so few voters and to be given that kind of recognition makes people feel good about it," said Lingle, who flew with Bush on Air Force One to a campaign stop in Las Vegas.

 

Brickwood Galuteria, the Hawaii Democratic Party chairman, said the poll results mean Hawaii's Democrats have to work hard in the campaign's closing days.

 

"The stakes are high and I still have confidence that the voters in Hawaii will deliver.

 

"I will stand by our rich Democratic history and our confidence in delivering for Kerry," Galuteria said.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

The Party ID numbers from Hawaii in 2000

 

50% Democrat

21% Republican

29% Independent

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

Something tells me the sampling for this poll wasn't exactly close to that

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

they only polled on Oahu for both polls: http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fus...tem&itemID=4776

 

Here's the county breakdown:

 

Hawaii: Hawaii

Honolulu: Oahu

Kauai: Kauai, Nihau

Maui: Maui, Lanal, Molokai, Kahoolawe

 

here's the 2000 results for counties

 

Hawaii: 56-33-9

Honolulu: 55-40-5

Kauai: 62-30-7

Maui: 60-33-6

Overseas: 44 votes to 26, Gore

 

And the percentage of the total vote per county:

 

Hawaii: 14%

Honolulu: 70%

Kauai: 6%

Maui: 11%

Overseas: 0.02%

 

So they surveyed the most pro-Bush county.. and not the other islands

[teke184 0]

they only polled on Oahu for both polls: http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fus...tem&itemID=4776

 

Here's the county breakdown:

 

Hawaii: Hawaii

Honolulu: Oahu

Kauai: Kauai, Nihau

Maui: Maui, Lanal, Molokai, Kahoolawe

 

here's the 2000 results for counties

 

Hawaii: 56-33-9

Honolulu: 55-40-5

Kauai: 62-30-7

Maui: 60-33-6

Overseas: 44 votes to 26, Gore

 

And the percentage of the total vote per county:

 

Hawaii: 14%

Honolulu: 70%

Kauai: 6%

Maui: 11%

Overseas: 0.02%

 

So they surveyed the most pro-Bush county.. and not the other islands

Oahu still provides 70% of the state's votes, so Bush being in the running there STILL means that Kerry's got some trouble in paradise.

 

 

Kerry shouldn't be having to waste any of his campaign resources wrapping up a state that is supposed to be a Democrat stronghold.

[Guest Nanks]

How long does the bloody election campaign go for over there???

 

Just fucking vote already.

[SuperJerk 0]

We all have to vote on the same day (November 2nd).

 

I wish it was over, too.

[Guest Nanks]

Well obviously you all vote on the same day, I wasn't suggesting you could just vote at will. But at least there's only a week to go, mind you doesn't it take about a week for you to work out who's actually won??

[teke184 0]

Well obviously you all vote on the same day, I wasn't suggesting you could just vote at will.  But at least there's only a week to go, mind you doesn't it take about a week for you to work out who's actually won??

Most elections are settled by about midnight EST on election day, about 4 hours after the polls close in the Eastern states.

 

This past election was an abberation because it was so close.

 

 

This election has the potential to be another nightmare, although it could break strongly for either candidate early and influence voting in the Mountain and Pacific states.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

Usually it only takes about three or four hours. So expect us to figure this one out next April.

 

And I already have voted. Absentee ballots are great.

[SuperJerk 0]

Well obviously you all vote on the same day

Hey, you asked!