Bush campaign "apprehensive"

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

only 9 days left.. it seems like a bit of an eternity. Nah, the eternity will be the recounts.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/artic...t23.html?sub=AR

 

GOP officials who talked to Bush-Cheney campaign leaders said the leaders had grown more worried about Ohio, Florida and other key states where Bush lacks a lead with just 10 days until the election. A poll by Ohio University's Scripps Survey Research Center, completed Thursday night, found Kerry leading 49 to 43 percent among registered voters, with a margin of error of five percentage points.

 

(...)

 

One Republican official described the mood at the top of the campaign as apprehensive. " 'Grim' is too strong," the official said. "If we feel this way a week from now, that will be grim."

 

(...)

 

That Republican official said polling for Bush showed him in a weaker position than some published polls, both nationally and in battlegrounds. In many of the key states, the official said, Bush is below 50 percent, and he is ahead or behind within the margin of sampling error -- a statistical tie.

 

"There's just no place where they're polling outside the margin of error so they can say, 'We have this state,' " the official said. 'And they know that an incumbent needs to be outside the margin of error."

 

Karl Rove, the White House senior adviser, said Bush will win a solid enough victory that the result will be clear sometime after midnight, although he made no prediction about the margin of victory or the number of states Bush would carry. "It's going to be a close election, but we have a persistent lead" in national polls, said Rove, who was wearing a "Pennsylvania Victory" cap as he traveled with Bush on Saturday.

 

Rove said Bush has begun advertising more heavily in Michigan, a state that once appeared out of reach for Bush, and the White House announced that Bush would stay overnight there in the coming week.

 

As we get closer to election day, we will all become alcoholics (to calm our nerves a bit).

 

One thing i've heard mentioned with the discussions on Bush and Ohio is the "Victory Lap" or whatever the Bush trip out to California in 2000 was called. Basically, some say that probably backfired. Since Bush campaigned in a safe Gore state and lost the popular vote. Of course, I could use a weaker word there, since Bush didn't lose the election due to that.

 

The stuff with New Jersey is what draws comparisons to the California trip. But Michigan might also be apprioriate for that POV.

 

Here's the stops on Bushapalooza:

 

Sunday: Alamogordo, New Mexico (Bush)

 

Monday: Wilmington, Ohio (Cheney)

Monday: Greeley, Colorado (Bush)

Monday: Council Bluffs, Iowa (Bush)

Monday: Davenport, Iowa (Bush)

 

Tuesday: Onalaska, Wisconsin (Bush)

Tuesday: Richland Center, Wisconsin (Bush)

Tuesday: Cuba City, Wisconsin (Bush)

Tuesday: Dubuque, Iowa (Bush)

 

Wednesday: Lancaster County, Pennsylvania (Bush)

Wednesday: Youngstown, Ohio (Bush)

Wednesday: Findlay, Ohio (Bush)

Wednesday: Detroit, Michigan (Bush)

 

and that's all of the listed stuff.

 

Maybe it's a mind trick by Jedi Master Karl Rove. Or not. I'm not sure.

[2GOLD 0]

I'm voting for the man in my sig.

 

At least he's honest.

[Hogan Made Wrestling 0]

My sig should make it pretty clear who I'm voting for.

[Vern Gagne 0]

That's entirely possible. It won't hurt to give the Kerry camp some false confidence.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

Possibly..

 

although they are sending Rick Santorum though some parts of Ohio tomorrow. But, I'd imagine Rick won't be dealing with the moderate voters.

[Guest MikeSC]

Amazing that an administration known for having no leaks whatsoever suddenly has leaks about internal polling numbers.

 

Hmmm, I smell bullshit.

-=Mike

[bob_barron 0]

Are you still confident that Bush has it in the bag Mike?

 

If I was in the Bush campaign I'd be nervous too- since the race is so close.

[Guest MikeSC]

Are you still confident that Bush has it in the bag Mike?

 

If I was in the Bush campaign I'd be nervous too- since the race is so close.

I am 100% confident. Bush will get about 300 EV and will get over 50% of the vote.

-=Mike

[bob_barron 0]

Right now RCP has it 234-211 Bush.

 

So you think he gets Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin and something like Minnesota or New Mexico/New Hampshire?

[Guest MikeSC]

Right now RCP has it 234-211 Bush.

 

So you think he gets Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin and something like Minnesota or New Mexico/New Hampshire?

FL, OH, and WI are going Bush. I have virtually no doubt.

 

NM is likely going Bush.

 

BTW, if you want comedy, Rosie O'Donnell hosted a Get out the Vote meeting at Club Ovation is St. Petersburg, FL --- and a whopping 38 people showed up. This is one day after Cher criticizing Bush to a crowd at a Miami disco, reportedly hosted by moveon.org --- a crowd of a whopping couple of hundred. They expected several thousand.

-=Mike

[JoeDirt 0]

I think it's going to be very close, and I wouldn't be surprised to see recounts necessary in several states.

[Guest MikeSC]

I think it's going to be very close, and I wouldn't be surprised to see recounts necessary in several states.

Suits will be filed regardless, no matter how close the races are not.

 

I am a little concerned that, apparently, the MSM STILL thinks FL polls close at 7.

-=Mike

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

Let me mention the election night timeline, just because:

 

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION...ecnighttime.php

 

Florida does appear to be the only swing state with a divide in the time that the polls close.

 

Texas closes at 8pm EST for most of the state and 9pm EST for El Paso, but then again, that's not doing to do anything

 

I hope the media remembers to not call Florida until after 7pm CST (8pm EST). Even if the 2000 announcement at 7:52pm EST didn't have a huge effect (unless there really were 20,000 people at home or on their ways to the polling places in the panhandle. I'd imagine they wouldn't play the election coverage in a polling place)

 

I don't see Florida being called for either side an less than an hour after the polls close.

[Guest MikeSC]

Let me mention the election night timeline, just because:

 

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION...ecnighttime.php

 

Florida does appear to be the only swing state with a divide in the time that the polls close.

 

Texas closes at 8pm EST for most of the state and 9pm EST for El Paso, but then again, that's not doing to do anything

 

I hope the media remembers to not call Florida until after 7pm CST (8pm EST). Even if the 2000 announcement at 7:52pm EST didn't have a huge effect (unless there really were 20,000 people at home or on their ways to the polling places in the panhandle. I'd imagine they wouldn't play the election coverage in a polling place)

 

I don't see Florida being called for either side an less than an hour after the polls close.

I'm hoping so, too --- but I remember reading somewhere (beat THAT for vagueness) that stated that the present network timeline for polls closing is FL closing @ 7.

-=Mike

...If they can't figure out the right times, then don't call anything until everybody is closed...

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

Since I doubt the networks acknowledge Central Standard Time, I don't think they can claim "The polls close at 7pm CST in the panhandle"

 

Another good question: Why do they have separate closing times? Tennessee doesn't do that. Although if they had the same time, it'd probably be 8pm EST

 

I wouldn't be stunned if the networks call Indiana or Kentucky before all the polls are closed. Granted, Bush is going to win both of those states. But they'll could do that anyways.

 

And if they refused to call any race until everybody closed their polls, it would be six hours of boring TV until Alaska closed at midnight EST

[Guest MikeSC]

Since I doubt the networks acknowledge Central Standard Time, I don't think they can claim "The polls close at 7pm CST in the panhandle"

 

Another good question: Why do they have separate closing times? Tennessee doesn't do that. Although if they had the same time, it'd probably be 8pm EST

 

I wouldn't be stunned if the networks call Indiana or Kentucky before all the polls are closed. Granted, Bush is going to win both of those states. But they'll could do that anyways.

 

And if they refused to call any race until everybody closed their polls, it would be six hours of boring TV until Alaska closed at midnight EST

Wel, in defense of the states, it's not their job to rig their poll closing times to the benefit of the press. It's the press' job to know when polls close.

-=Mike

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

there's this press thing about when polls close anyways?

 

Florida being the only meaningful state with that split will confuse the press. (Who will correctly call Texas and North Dakota for Bush before all the polls close. Of course)

 

Maybe you should send the map on the Election Atlas to them. Those colors should help some of them out.

[The Robfather 0]

One Republican official described the mood at the top of the campaign as apprehensive. " 'Grim' is too strong," the official said. "If we feel this way a week from now, that will be grim."

 

...

 

"There's just no place where they're polling outside the margin of error so they can say, 'We have this state,' " the official said. 'And they know that an incumbent needs to be outside the margin of error."

 

Interesting that a top Republican offical would refer to those in the campaign as 'they'. Wouldn't it be we, not they?

[Guest GreatOne]

Well as a student at EWU, I sometimes still refer to the Eagles as they.

 

So the point is?

[The Robfather 0]

My point is, I don't think that is really a top Republican offical. I don't trust that these quotes are really from a republican source. The use of they, not we, gives it away.

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

Not really. But think what you want; you were going to do that anyways.