The OaO Election Day (Month?) Thread

[bob_barron 0]

Well, Wisconsin just seems like a state that will vote Democrat, along with its neighbors Minnesota and Michigan. I don't take them seriously as swing states.

Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida along with New Mexico and Iowa will be the big swing states.

Minnesota has same day registration which I think will really help out the Democrats since that seems to cater to a lot of young people who just didn't bother to register and they're better at getting out of the vote

 

Nader is a factor in Minnesota too- The only poll where he was tracked he got 5% of the vote and Minnesota is famous for going 3rd party. Or Walter Mondale. Here's the Minnesota polls:

 

 

RCP Average | 10/24-11/1 - - 45.3 48.5 5.0 Kerry +3.2

Zogby | 10/29-11/1 601 LV 4.1 45 51 - Kerry +6

Strategic Vision ® | 10/29-31 801 LV 3.0 48 48 1 TIE

CNN/USAT/Gallup | 10/28-30 1098 LV 3.0 44 52 - Kerry +8

Rasmussen | 10/25-10/31 600 LV 4.0 47 48 - Kerry +1

St. PP/Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 48 47 - Bush +1

Star-Tribune | 10/26-29 996 LV 3.5 41 49 - Kerry +8

Humphrey Inst | 10/24-10/27 690 LV 4.1 47 44 5 Bush +3

Strategic Vision ® | 10/24-26 801 LV 3.0 49 47 1 Bush +2

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

Joe "Matthew Perry" Scarborough and Ron Reagan can take a break as long as this W speech is on MSNBC

[bob_barron 0]

Michigan is a state with a lot of black people and they tend to go Democrat which I think will give it to Kerry.

 

I noticed Bush ignored it while Kerry did some last minute campaigning. Anything to read into there Mike?

 

Every Michigan poll except for SV has Kerry winning so I think he's got that one.

[Styles 0]

Joe "Matthew Perry" Scarborough and Ron Reagan can take a break as long as this W speech is on MSNBC

aww they cut him off.

I just realized its not after midnight in Texas, it would be just after 10, which takes away the coolness of the President making a speech so late.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

Oh fuck.. not Frank Luntz!

 

I have an urge to slap him around when I see him on TV.

 

I'd imagine that Kerry will win a rather high percentage of the African-American vote. They said that Gore wouldn't win a lot of African-American votes, and Gore won one of the highest percentages of that vote ever.

[bob_barron 0]

Kerry has a slim lead in PA but I think he'll win it. Except for Gallop- Bush has always been trailing in that state and I just don't see any last minute momentum going his way.

 

Bush wins if he gets PA.

[Styles 0]

I'd imagine that Kerry will win a rather high percentage of the African-American vote. They said that Gore wouldn't win a lot of African-American votes, and Gore won one of the highest percentages of that vote ever.

Bush will win 80%+ of the black vote. Easily.

=Mike

...Kerry will not win the support of ANY minority groups. AT ALL.

 

 

 

Sorry, I couldn't resist doing a little lampooning of Mike's confidence.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

Is there anything to be taken from Bush managing draws in polls where Republicans make up 40% of the sample?

 

How large do you see the turnout getting? I'm gonna say maybe 116M

[bob_barron 0]

Regarding the black vote I think Kerry is tracking 10% worse then Gore did in 2000. The only state I could see that really having an effect in is Michigan

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

Nobody's going to top what Gore did in 2000. The exit polls said that Gore won African-Americans by a 90-9 margin.

 

But I'd imagine the polling is a bit off and I expect Kerry to take around 86% or so of the African-American vote.

[Styles 0]

MSNBC reports the earliest results, from Dicksville, NH whose polls apparently open at Midnight...and...this is too perfect....

15 Kerry

15 Bush

1 Nader

 

Let the games begin!

 

(they said they'd provide another update from the town next hour.)

[bob_barron 0]

Butthead: You said dicksville.

 

4 years ago Bush won Dicksville.

 

Heh heh heh heh heh heh. I said Dicksville

[Guest MikeSC]

Michigan is a state with a lot of black people and they tend to go Democrat which I think will give it to Kerry.

 

I noticed Bush ignored it while Kerry did some last minute campaigning. Anything to read into there Mike?

 

Every Michigan poll except for SV has Kerry winning so I think he's got that one.

Bush is unlikely to win, but Kerry's numbers seem to indicate it's chancy. Bush's numbers likely show a close race, but not one he can likely win, so sacrificing anything to try is a bit of a waste.

I'd imagine that Kerry will win a rather high percentage of the African-American vote. They said that Gore wouldn't win a lot of African-American votes, and Gore won one of the highest percentages of that vote ever.

He'll win a lot, no doubt. But he won't win even close to Gore's numbers.

Is there anything to be taken from Bush managing draws in polls where Republicans make up 40% of the sample?

Recent polls have oversampled Dems.

How large do you see the turnout getting? I'm gonna say maybe 116M

111M, and that's probably high. Rage is not a good motivator for voting behavior.

Kerry has a slim lead in PA but I think he'll win it. Except for Gallop- Bush has always been trailing in that state and I just don't see any last minute momentum going his way.

 

Bush wins if he gets PA.

I don't like Bush's chances in PA. But, I still suspect that the polls are understating the GOP GOTV efforts in a major way.

 

As badly as they understated Gore's GOTV in 2000, they're doing worse now.

-=Mike

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

It appears some people are in a hurry.

 

And New Hampshire has a massive ego about this "Vote First" thing.

 

Dixville results from 2000

 

Bush - 21

Gore - 5

Nader - 1

[Styles 0]

Butthead: You said dicksville.

 

4 years ago Bush won Dicksville.

 

Heh heh heh heh heh heh. I said Dicksville

Woops, I just heard it on TV, didn't see how it was spelled. You can carry on calling it "Dicksville" though if you like.

[bob_barron 0]

Shit.

 

There goes that election.

 

So- who do we run in 2008?

 

Mike- Care to explain to an American stranded in Canada what GOTV is/was?

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

He'll win a lot, no doubt. But he won't win even close to Gore's numbers.

 

I don't think anybody or any race will top 90%

 

Recent polls have oversampled Dems.

 

such as?

 

Just curious..

 

111M, and that's probably high. Rage is not a good motivator for voting behavior.

 

I'd say it's "motivation" and not purely rage. There's angry people, but there's also people who are motivated to get out and vote

[teke184 0]

Upon further inspection, it appears part of why Jindal lost dealt with majority Republican areas in the heart of Acadiana voting for Blanco. (Many of these areas went for Bush over Gore by about 2:1 but split about 51-49 in Blanco's favor)

 

One of my co-workers had brought this up and said Jindal distancing himself from Edwards' legacy cost him the election in places like Lafayette and Crowley (Edwards' hometown). I guess she was right.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

Shit.

 

There goes that election.

 

So- who do we run in 2008?

 

Mike- Care to explain to an American stranded in Canada what GOTV is/was?

Don't worry.. Dixville may not mean much.

 

Previous Dixville results

 

1996: 18-8 Dole

1992: 15 for Bush, 8 for Perot, 2 for Clinton

 

and one source is claiming that the results may be a bit closer to a Bush win

[Styles 0]

Shit.

 

There goes that election.

 

So- who do we run in 2008?

Bush could pull a Grover Cleveland and run again for a unconsecutive second term in 08! I'm sure by then, the new "America: Europe Style" will have been attacked several times by terrorists, and will be ready for the headstrong Sherrif who they unwisely kicked out to return on horseback and restore security to the range...

[Styles 0]

Shit.

 

There goes that election.

 

So- who do we run in 2008?

 

Mike- Care to explain to an American stranded in Canada what GOTV is/was?

Don't worry.. Dixville may not mean much.

 

Previous Dixville results

 

1996: 18-8 Dole

1992: 15 for Bush, 8 for Perot, 2 for Clinton

 

and one source is claiming that the results may be a bit closer to a Bush win

The fact that a traditionally Republican sample, has split its vote evenly with the Democrat is not a good omen...

[teke184 0]

Shit.

 

There goes that election.

 

So- who do we run in 2008?

Bush could pull a Grover Cleveland and run again for a unconsecutive second term in 08! I'm sure by then, the new "America: Europe Style" will have been attacked several times by terrorists, and will be ready for the headstrong Sherrif who they unwisely kicked out to return on horseback and restore security to the range...

Bush pulling a Cleveland would be oddly appropriate since Cleveland participated in three of the closest elections in history, with his fate depending on the swing vote in New York at least twice.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

I'm thinking that the first report (which came from Ron Reagan) may be a bit off.

 

I'm hearing it's more around 19-7 Bush. I'd imagine Bush won't lose Dixville. They're big Dick Cheney backers.

[bob_barron 0]

One district in and we're already getting recounts.

[bob_barron 0]

I read that Cheney campaigned in Hawaii. That could help the ignored state lean Republican.

 

I think the Dems ignoring of Hawaii could bite them in the ass

[Styles 0]

Tremendous. MSNBC has already had to correct itself and retract a call.

Dixville was Bush 19 and Kerry 7 which is a lot better. Apparently it was another NH city that was tied.

[bob_barron 0]

19-7 Bush?????

 

SUCK ON THAT KERRY SUPPORTERS.

 

W. has 73% of the popular vote so far

[teke184 0]

MSNBC- "We called that city a deadlock before we called it for Bush"

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

Hart's Location, New Hampshire appears to be the 15-15-1 hamlet

 

2000: 17-13 Bush

1996: 13-12-4 Dole

1992: 15 for Perot, 9 for Bush, 6 for Clinton

[bob_barron 0]

Why is New Hampshire so jealous of Delaware?