Scouts vs Stats

[Vern Gagne 0]

ESPN.COM

 

Nice read for those interested.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I read the article, and it is an interesting read. Personally, I think the best method is the integration of good scouting and good statistical work. Scouts catch the things the stats miss, and vice versa. A good organization gathers as much evidence as possible.

[Mik 0]

I read the article as well, and all I can say is that McCracken and the guy from Baseball Prospectus should have respectfully declined to have their pictures published.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

I also enjoyed it though at times the scouts came off as somewhat oblivious to what the statistical side talked about. An example being Gary Hughes(?) ranting about teams only taking college players, obviously talking towards Oakland, when it's simply not true at all and is just an asinine and unfounded comment. Just because statistical driven teams don't go for high schoolers in the 1st or 2nd round doesn't mean they avoid them at will for 50 freaking rounds.

[Guest Smell the ratings!!!]

Voros jokes finally reach TSM. Delicious.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

"All your statistics are going to tell you is what a guy has done. Somebody has got to make the decision on what the guy's gonna do"

 

Neifi Perez isn't going to hit 40 home runs this year

 

You know one reason why I can say that?

 

Because statistics show us that he hasn't done that

 

Here's my thoughts on the draft:

 

#1 - High School Pitchers are too risky for the early rounds. Many of them have went though high workloads. Paying high school pitchers lots of money didn't work when they did it in the 1950s, and it doesn't work now. You can draft them later and see if they'd go for less money. You're not losing money that way.

 

#2 - High School Hitters are safer to draft. The minimum amount of time you can hold one before free agency allows you enough time to see their peak years (25 though 29).

 

#3 - College Pitchers are good bets to draft. They don't take long to go though the system.

 

#4 - College Hitters aren't loved enough. College hitters are likely to stay in your organization though their peak years before they get to free agency. Therefore you can dump them without guilt if you have to.

 

#5 - Clubs waste too many draft picks on players who won't sign. They should use some of their later picks on dark horse college seniors. They could be old for their leagues, but it's probably cheaper to draft and sign them than to sign some minor league free agents to fill spots in the upper teams.

 

#6 - The Five Tool label is overused. The five tools are base-stealing ability, a strong throwing arm, an ability to hit with power, good fielding ability, and high batting average. These five tools are not equal. If these are the five abilities one can have, I'd split them as follows.

 

base-stealing ability - 8%

a strong throwing arm - 10%

ability to hit for power - 35%

good fielding ability - 18%

high batting average - 29%

 

Stealing bases is fairly meaningless in the realm of a game. Numerous studies have shown that stealing bases really doesn't change much in the probability of scoring.

 

A strong throwing arm is good for shortstop, second base, third base, catcher and right field. Although it's not equal to the value of a powerhitter.

 

Power to me includes doubles and home runs. There's some good measures out to show you how good a player is at power.

 

good fielding ability is hard to define. Why do you think Jeter got a gold glove? But since most balls are put in play, it's helpful to have some good or competant defensive players in the middle and left side of the infield.

 

Batting average by itself is overrated.

 

The sixth tool is the ability to patient and getting on-base. That includes players who can draw walks, people who get hit by pitches and all that. OBP is vital. I'd think there is data out to show how many innings go 1-2-3 and all that.

 

but your opinion may vary.

 

#7 - Your eyes decieve you. Basing such decisions as drafting purely on opinion is foolish. The statistical performance of a player should be considered. Giving the sample size of a few games is foolish as well.