Los Angeles Dodgers

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I've been itching to write this up, so I'm skipping ahead. The Dodgers won 93 games last year and the National League West. They fell in the first round to the St. Louis Cardinals, a result much expected due to the Cardinals' great season. It was the Dodgers' first division title since 1995, and their one playoff win was the Dodgers' first since 1988. To hear Los Angeles reporters however, you would think this team was a great dynasty, maliciously destroyed by the evil GM Paul Depodesta.

 

In thinking of the best way to address this, I've split my thinking into three separate events. Let's take a look.

 

The Trade: Part I

 

The LA Dodgers sent C Paul Lo Duca, P Guillermo Mota and OF Juan Encarnacion to the Florida Marlins for P Brad Penny and 1B Hee Seop Choi.

 

Oh Boy. The Sierra Nevadas are still echoing with cries of anguish made when the Dodgers traded Lo Duca. Lost in the outrage was the fact that "team leader and clubhouse heart" Lo Duca had never led the Dodgers even to the playoffs, and that he had a rare ability to collapse in the second half. Take a look at Lo Duca's career splits...

 

Pre All-Star: .313/.368/.471 (1,203 at bats)

Post All-Star: .254/.310/.374 (1,114 at bats)

 

Lo Duca proceeded to do exactly that in Florida, posting a .258/.314/.376 line with the Marlins. For all the clubhouse presence he might bring, he turns 33 this month, and he suffers in the second half. That is hardly a player that will make or break a career.

 

Mota and Encarnacion were made expendable by the emergence of Yhancy Brazoban and Jayson Werth. Only the most hardened of sportswriters can blame the Dodgers for attempting to use a surplus to plug holes. Let's take a look at the issue of Hee Seop Choi. Immediately after the trade, writers criticized Choi, noting he was merely a "platoon" player. Indeed, the Marlins used him almost exclusively against righties, where he smoked them for a .261/.381/.469 line. Does Choi struggle against lefties? He hasn't hit them well, posting just a .123/.296/.211 line against them in his career. But Choi has only received 57 career at bats against lefties.

 

Certainly, if managers refuse to bat Choi against lefties, his inability becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. Skills not exercised tend to diminish. The stats are inconclusive in this case, so let me point you to another notable platoon player. David Ortiz displays the same type of splits. His OPS dropped nearly 300 points against lefties last season. Choi is demonized, yet Ortiz is propped up in MVP voting. And if the worst case scenario occurs and Choi can't hit lefties, no biggie. Right handed first basemen grow on trees.

 

Look, the fact is that LA lost little of consequence, and gained a cheap first baseman who at the very least can slaughter righties, and a potential ace in Brad Penny. I think that works out.

 

Adrian Beltre

 

Letting Adrian Beltre leave? The horrors!

 

First off, Beltre has never hit more than 23 home runs in any other season. In the three years before 2004, Beltre collected OBPs of .310, .303 and .290. Most traditional analysts even believe he is extremely unlikely to hit 48 home runs again. The Mariners gave Beltre a 5 year, $65 Million contract. That is alot of money ($15 Million a season) to assume Beltre will maintain this level of production. The beat writers seriously want the Dodgers to take that gamble?

 

First off, the Dodgers have a kid in their system named Joel Guzman. Guzman hit .280/.325/.522 last year, in AA. And he was 19. A 19 year old shortstop posting a .522 slugging percentage in AA is what we like to call a "holy f*** prospect." And it seems his defensive skills will require him to move to third base eventually. Imagine that.

 

Meanwhile, the Dodgers used the extra money to sign J.D. Drew, and save $10 million in the process. In addition, they receive two draft picks for losing Beltre. They will likely lose production from the infield, but that was inevitable. A poor investment is a poor investment. Jeff Kent will cover some of the loss, and Jose Valentin and Japanese import Norihito Nakamura will cover the rest. One of the odd complaints is that the Jeff Kent signing breaks up the Izturis/Cora double play combo. A good keystone combination is nice, but the ability to turn two will not decide the season.

 

The Trade: Part II

 

The Los Angeles Dodgers send Shawn Green to the Arizona Diamondbacks for C Dioner Navarro.

 

With Lo Duca gone, the Dodgers scrambled for a catcher. They found a long term solution in Navarro, who is better than his 2004 indicates. They saved money by dealing Green, who has become an average hitter the last two seasons. They signed J.D. Drew to replace Green. Drew has injury concerns, but he has ALWAYS hit when healthy. More importantly, you might note that Hee Seop Choi had a better OBP last season.

 

The Dodgers are right up there with the Padres as NL West favorites, in my opinion. This is a lineup without big time hitting stars, but they have tough outs all over the lineup. If Brad Penny can make an impact and Edwin Jackson rebounds, I think they will take the division.

[Guest Mosaicv2]

I predict Derek Lowe will have a good year. And no... it's not a April's Fools joke.

[The Czech Republic 0]

Pre All-Star: .313/.368/.471 (1,203 at bats)

Post All-Star: .254/.310/.374 (1,114 at bats)

 

?!?!?!?!

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Confused or just startled?

[strummer 0]

Al, you would have loved Mike and the Mad Dog today, during their season predictions, Chris Russo predicted the Dodgers to win less than 80 games because they have no "team chemistry" and have "bad karma" But of course he predicted the Giants to win 95+ because they have players with more "intangibles"

[The Czech Republic 0]

Al, you would have loved Mike and the Mad Dog today, during their season predictions, Chris Russo predicted the Dodgers to win less than 80 games because they have no "team chemistry" and have "bad karma" But of course he predicted the Giants to win 95+ because they have players with more "intangibles"

Yeah they have intangibles: Barry Bonds's presence in the lineup is intangible. It can't be felt.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Al's not a believer in team chemistry.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I don't doubt the presence of team chemestry. But the presence or lack of it does not add or subtract a full ten games to a team's record.

[The Czech Republic 0]

I might become a believer in team chemistry if the Cubs all become super-amazing

[Spaceman Spiff 0]

Team #3 for me on the SoCal baseball swing.

[UZI Suicide 0]

As a Dodger fan I'm going to have to disagree with this. Beltre wasn't just a one year wonder, he turned it on in the 2nd half of 2003 and carried it over to last year. Add that onto the fact that he's only 25 and plays nearly Gold Glove Caliber defense, it was just ridiculous to get rid of him.

 

Yes, Guzman *could* eventually replace him, but you don't get rid of 25-year old guys who are going to be star's for the next decade and replace them with a minor leaguer, you replace an older veteran player. Right now Valentin is at 3B and he's a sack of shit.

 

If you want to talk about a one year wonder, it's JD Drew, who the only time he actually stayed healthy(and I use that term loosely) was in his contract year. Now that hes got his fat contract I expect him to be on the DL quite a bit.

 

I don't understand the trade of Shawn Green, to "free up money"..exactly why did they need to free up money? What did they spend that money on? Green was heading into his final year of his contract and from the way he played in the 2nd half last year and in the postseason, he seems to be headed to a big season this year.

 

Derek Lowe, terrible signing, way overpaid. He's been absolute shit as a starting pitcher the last 3 years and been getting worse every year.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

As a Dodger fan I'm going to have to disagree with this. Beltre wasn't just a one year wonder, he turned it on in the 2nd half of 2003 and carried it over to last year. Add that onto the fact that he's only 25 and plays nearly Gold Glove Caliber defense, it was just ridiculous to get rid of him.

 

Beltre hit for power in his 2003 second half, slugging .506. But his .295 OBP hardly inspires confidence. But that is besides the point. Beltre may be a great player. But I feel the Mariners overpaid for him. The Dodgers would have had to pay more to keep him, and there comes a point where you cannot place the entire faith of your franchise on a single player.

 

Yes, Guzman *could* eventually replace him, but you don't get rid of 25-year old guys who are going to be star's for the next decade and replace them with a minor leaguer, you replace an older veteran player. Right now Valentin is at 3B and he's a sack of shit.

 

True. If I had the choice between Beltre and Guzman, financial restraints aside, I would choose Beltre in a heartbeat. But it is not as simple as all that.

 

While Valentin is hardly an ideal player, he is by no means a terrible player. He hits for power and has good defensive range. Besides, he is no more than a stopgap until something better comes along. Don't forget about Norihiro Nakamura either.

 

If you want to talk about a one year wonder, it's JD Drew, who the only time he actually stayed healthy(and I use that term loosely) was in his contract year. Now that hes got his fat contract I expect him to be on the DL quite a bit.

 

J.D. Drew intentionally hurts himself unless he is seeking a large contract? Drew is an injury risk, no doubt. But you know he is going to hit if he is in the lineup. The Dodgers may use him in center field which is hoped will keep him healthy (avoiding quick stops in the outfield corners).

 

I don't understand the trade of Shawn Green, to "free up money"..exactly why did they need to free up money? What did they spend that money on? Green was heading into his final year of his contract and from the way he played in the 2nd half last year and in the postseason, he seems to be headed to a big season this year.

 

Well, it comes down to what set of stats you trust. If Green's second half is an indicator of a big season, then why isn't Drew's? Drew produced a .439 OBP in the second half last season.

 

As for that extra money, immediately after the trade they re-signed pitcher Odalis Perez. They also signed Jeff Kent.

 

Derek Lowe, terrible signing, way overpaid. He's been absolute shit as a starting pitcher the last 3 years and been getting worse every year.

 

Agreed. I cannot make any excuses for this signing, other then that Depodesta was desperate for another starting pitcher.

[UZI Suicide 0]

Beltre hit for power in his 2003 second half, slugging .506.  But his .295 OBP hardly inspires confidence.  But that is besides the point.  Beltre may be a great player.  But I feel the Mariners overpaid for him.  The Dodgers would have had to pay more to keep him, and there comes a point where you cannot place the entire faith of your franchise on a single player.

 

Only 10 million more, for a better, younger, less injury prone player(they've both had their share of injuries, but Beltre plays through his). That doesn't seem like too steep to me.

 

While Valentin is hardly an ideal player, he is by no means a terrible player. He hits for power and has good defensive range. Besides, he is no more than a stopgap until something better comes along. Don't forget about Norihiro Nakamura either.

 

Valentin has just average defense and if he doesn't hit a HR he's not going to hit anything. He has a terrible average and OBP. Nakamura I'm sure will be a decent player but I'm not expecting much more than just decent.

 

J.D. Drew intentionally hurts himself unless he is seeking a large contract? Drew is an injury risk, no doubt. But you know he is going to hit if he is in the lineup. The Dodgers may use him in center field which is hoped will keep him healthy (avoiding quick stops in the outfield corners).

 

No, I'm saying Drew has been notoriously known for not wanting to play through any injuries, even minor ones, sitting out games he doesn't need to sit out, etc. Last year with a contract on the line I'm sure he did a lot less of that, and now that he's got it he can go back to his old ways.

 

Well, it comes down to what set of stats you trust. If Green's second half is an indicator of a big season, then why isn't Drew's? Drew produced a .439 OBP in the second half last season.

 

As for that extra money, immediately after the trade they re-signed pitcher Odalis Perez. They also signed Jeff Kent.

 

Yes, but Green doesn't cost 55 million dollars, and Green isn't one of the most injury prone players in the league.

 

Jeff Kent, is a nice signing, might have another year left in him, but this signing is about 5 years too late. He's at the end of the line.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Only 10 million more, for a better, younger, less injury prone player(they've both had their share of injuries, but Beltre plays through his). That doesn't seem like too steep to me.

 

But there is also the chance that 2004 was a fluke for Beltre, and then the Dodgers would be up the creek. In the three years preceeding 2004, Beltre failed to top a .310 OBP, or post a better slugging percentage than .426. He does not boast a tremendous walk rate, and it is quite likely his batting average will drop. Is it really worth risking $15 Million a season over a full five years? I would not.

 

As for right field. Given a choice between Drew and Green, I'd take Drew. Green has posted average numbers over the last two seasons. Green might have posted nice second-half numbers, but at 32, it is unlikely Green has turned a corner. Drew is three years younger. His injury troubles are overstated, in my opinion. His games played early in his career look worse because of Tony LaRussa's maddening platoon arrangements.

 

I realize Drew is a risk. But it is a high-reward risk, and he WILL hit when he is in the lineup.

 

Also, realize the net gains in these trades. It is not just a choice of Beltre/Green or Drew/Guzman. The Dodgers also acquired Dioner Navarro, William Juarez, two other pitching prospects, two first round draft picks, and used the extra cash to re-sign Odalis Perez. Perez was by far their best starter last season, posting an ERA 27% better than average.

 

What is often missed about the Dodgers is that they wasted 18 starts on Hideo Nomo, who posted an 8.25 ERA and finished 4-11. Give those 18 starts to even an average pitcher, and the pennant race is no longer close. Lowe is a bad signing. But he's at least average and healthy, and he will eat innings. The improvement in the pitching staff will help.