2006 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

[Guest]

Fuck Jeff Shaw.

[Guest Princess Leena]

Only 3 noted steroid abusers in the Top 10!

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Only 3 noted steroid abusers in the Top 10!

Four. Wally Joyner admitted using near the end of his career.

[mike546 0]

Didn't he say he tried it once, but felt guilty and stopped? Or something like that.

[Lt. Al Giardello 0]

Will Jim Rice ever get in??

[Guest Princess Leena]

Wally wasn't really an abuser.

 

I'd like to include Paul O'Neill too, just because he was such a jerk.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

How about a Keltner list for Tony Fernandez, Al?

 

Oh, and the baseball writers are morons. But then, I've said that every year Goose hasn't gotten in.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

No. Fernandez finished in the top ten of the MVP voting just once, placing eighth in 1987.

 

2. Was he the best player on his team?

Probably not. Dave Steib was the star of the Toronto Blue Jays in the mid '80s.

 

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

No. Alan Trammell, Cal Ripken, Barry Larkin and Ozzie Smith were superior players.

 

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Fernandez's teams reached the playoffs often. The Blue Jays won the East in '85, '89, and Fernandez was traded back in time for the 1993 stretch run. Fernandez also played for the 1995 NY Yankees and the 1997 Cleveland Indians. Fernandez generally played well down the stretch. He's a .327 postseason hitter. This is a strong point for Fernandez.

 

5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

Yes. Fernandez remained productive well into his late 30s.

 

6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

No.

 

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?

Three out of ten (Red Schoendienst, Billy Herman and Pee Wee Reese). All three however were somewhat questionable veterans' committee picks. Reese is a stronger player, but he's #10 on the comp list.

 

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

No. Fernandez scores low on the Black Ink test, Gray Ink test, and HOF Standards measure.

 

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

None apparent.

 

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

No. I would rank Alan Trammell above Fernandez.

 

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

1987 is Fernandez's best year, when he hit .322 while winning a Gold Glove at short. However, that was a year of explosive offense. Fernandez's batting average rated just 7th, and he did not place in the top ten in either OBP or slugging percentage.

 

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

Fernandez played in five All-Star games, an average total.

 

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

Not unless the team was very balanced.

 

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

None.

 

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

Yes.

 

Tony Fernandez won four Gold Gloves and compiled a 101 OPS+. He was a very good player, but not a HOF caliber talent.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Will Jim Rice ever get in??

God I hope not. Jim Rice going in would be perhaps the worst writers' decision since Rabbit Maranville. There are currently 17 HOFers who played the majority of their games in left field. Let's see how Rice stacks up...

 

Rice compiled a 128 OPS+ over his career. Fourteen of the 17 have that beat. The others are Goose Goslin (tied, had a longer career), Heinie Manush (questionable vets' committee pick), and Lou Brock (in for his stolen bases).

 

But Rice was better at his peak, right? Rice's best two year stretch saw him produce an OPS+ of 156. I'm using a two-year period because the number goes down over three years, and I want to make this emphatic. 13 of the 17 HOF left fielders had a better two-year run than Rice. The exceptions are Brock, Manush, Billy Williams and Zach Wheat.

 

Win Shares. Jim Rice earned 282 win shares in his career. That is worse than FIFTEEN of the seventeen left fielders currently in the Hall of Fame. The only players worse are Chick Hafey (another bad vet's committee pick), and Ralph Kiner (whose peak was off the charts).

 

Win Shares per season. I simply divided win shares by games played, and multiplied by 162. SIXTEEN of the seventeen players in the Hall were better on a per game basis. The only exception is Lou Brock, who has 500 more hits to his credit.

 

By any standard, Rice would rate in the bottom fourth of the HOF. The only players worse are guys who made it into the Hall because the veterans' committee contained their old teammates. It's a joke that Rice received 64.8% of the vote, and disheartening to hear so many ill-informed analysts call for his election. Particularly when the current ballot contains seven players who were better, and that's not even counting the closers. Jim Rice had a great peak? Dale Murphy won two consecutive MVPs. Dave Parker hit .334 and .338 in consecutive years. And while Rice was playing a mediocre left field defensively, Parker collected 26 outfield assists in a single season. Rice was a feared hitter? Pitchers intentionally walked Will Clark twice as often.

 

We'd honestly be better off letting Jose Canseco into the Hall than electing Jim Rice. At least Canseco has numbers to justify his candidacy.

[Slayer 0]

How do you feel about Jack Morris, al?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

How do you feel about Jack Morris, al?

I wouldn't vote for Morris, but I don't think he's such the offensive candidate that many in the sabermetric community paint him as. His career ERA is mediocre. But he did win 254 games, in a brief era when so many pitchers flamed out. The only pitchers with more wins who are not in are either 19th century pitchers, or the trio of Blyleven, Tommy John and Jim Kaat. Also, among candidates with a better win percentage, Freddie Fitzsimmons has the most wins at 217.

[bob_barron 0]

Can you Keltner list or at least give your opinion on Orel Herschiser?

[The Czech Republic 0]

I think I remember him saying Hershiser wasn't really HOF-caliber, but I don't wanna put words in anyone's mouth so never mind

[Guest Princess Leena]

Hershiser was from Buffalo. So, he shouldn't get in.

 

I'd like a diatribe from Al on all the HOF members he think shouldn't be in there. Including veterans' committee guys.

[Vern Gagne 0]

What's going to end up being the standard for starting pitching in the next 20-30 years? 300 wins seems like a longshot, with any pitcher under the age of 30.

 

Jim Rice needs to pick 11% over three years. Given that 2/3 of the players who reached 60% have made it. Sorry AL. Rice is going to be in the HOF.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Quite honestly, until the Tommy John trio, 250 wins was the standard for HOF election. I do think there is a 300 game winner somewhere in the under 30 set.

 

Looking at the gains made by some players this year is somewhat deceiving. Many players received higher vote totals because the ballot lacked any first time players with a prayer of entry. None of these players are getting in next year with Gwynn and Ripken. Then we've got 2008 (Tim Raines) and 2009 (Rickey Henderson). Rice is off the ballot after that. I don't think he can make up the ground.

 

Hershiser had an excellent three year run, but there's a ton of pitchers who can make that claim. And even then Hershiser's W/L records weren't sterling. His numbers just aren't there.

 

I'd like a diatribe from Al on all the HOF members he think shouldn't be in there. Including veterans' committee guys.

 

Read Bill James' Whatever Happened To the Hall of Fame? A great read until the last chapter where he goes off on a tangent and bitches that the writers shouldn't be the only ones who vote. It covers the history of the Hall and the voting quite nicely.

[Vern Gagne 0]

This is going to help your chances Goose.

 

The "Goose's" feelings concerning Rice's snub were particularly strong as he called it a "joke" that the Twins' Kirby Puckett was elected on the first ballot. Rice meanwhile is now 0-for-12 in Hall entry attempts.

 

"If Jim Rice had played in the Metrodome, he would have torn the place down, and that's nothing against Kirby Puckett, that's just the way it is," Gossage said.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Quite honestly, until the Tommy John trio, 250 wins was the standard for HOF election. I do think there is a 300 game winner somewhere in the under 30 set.

 

What pichers do you see having the best chance at 300 wins?

 

Looking at the gains made by some players this year is somewhat deceiving. Many players received higher vote totals because the ballot lacked any first time players with a prayer of entry. None of these players are getting in next year with Gwynn and Ripken. Then we've got 2008 (Tim Raines) and 2009 (Rickey Henderson). Rice is off the ballot after that. I don't think he can make up the ground.

 

I don't see Tim Raines getting that many votes his first year. My guess is between 45-50%.Voters are going to have to reminded how good a leadoff hitter Raines was. I think it ends up being Ripken,and Gwynn next year. McGwire, and Gossage the following year, and Henderson and Rice in 2009.

 

Hershiser had an excellent three year run, but there's a ton of pitchers who can make that claim. And even then Hershiser's W/L records weren't sterling. His numbers just aren't there.

 

I'd like a diatribe from Al on all the HOF members he think shouldn't be in there. Including veterans' committee guys.

 

Read Bill James' Whatever Happened To the Hall of Fame? A great read until the last chapter where he goes off on a tangent and bitches that the writers shouldn't be the only ones who vote. It covers the history of the Hall and the voting quite nicely.

 

[The Czech Republic 0]

Quality post!

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

What pichers do you see having the best chance at 300 wins?

 

Roy Oswalt, Mark Buehrle and Johan Santana strike me as strong candidates. Also, Pedro Martinez is sitting at 197 wins. He's got a reasonable shot.

 

I don't see Tim Raines getting that many votes his first year. My guess is between 45-50%.Voters are going to have to reminded how good a leadoff hitter Raines was. I think it ends up being Ripken,and Gwynn next year. McGwire, and Gossage the following year, and Henderson and Rice in 2009.

The fact that Raines is the only new candidate in 2008 within a mile of the Hall will help his chances. The sabermetric crowd will boost Raine. If they get support from Peter Gammons, I can see Raines drawing significant support. As it is, I feel comfortable thinking Raines gets at least 60%. Otherwise your assessment is probably right. Next year will be a telling sign of Rice's candidacy.

[Lt. Al Giardello 0]

I do think Andre Dawson should be in the hall of fame, he was a very talented player, and in my opinion has the numbers of a hall of fame player.

[C Dubya 04 0]

I would like to see a case for Raines made by the numbers people. He is from the era where I watched a ton of baseball, and I remember "Rock" Raines as being more good than great.

[Guest Brian]

808 stolen bases, 1500+ runs. The only modern players ahead of him not in the Hall of Fame are Biggio, Cal Ripken, Palmeiro, Bonds, Rose, and Rickey Henderson. Six of his ten most similar are in the Hall. From 1983-1987, he was one of the top players in the game (won batting and on-base crown in 1986, finished top three in batting three other times, finished top five in OBP for all five years, three top tens in MVP with an eleventh and twelfth, despite not being a power hitter finished top ten in slugging, three top ten in OPS, top ten every year in runs with first place in 1983 and 1987, top ten in hits for all five years, four top ten in total bases, doubles crown in 1984 with two top tens, five top tens in triples, top ten in BB for all five years, two stolen base crowns and top five the three other years, top ten in adjusted OPS+ for those five years, top five in runs created for those five years)

 

How come Raines finished so low in MVP voting in 1986?

[Guest]

I do think Andre Dawson should be in the hall of fame, he was a very talented player, and in my opinion has the numbers of a hall of fame player.

I think he should get in, but that OBP is atrocious.

 

Dawson has some impressive Hall of Fame credentials. He has more than 2,700 hits, more than 400 home runs, he won Gold Gloves, he stole bases, he won an MVP (a bizarre choice, but still), he's 21st all-time in extra-base hits. He was a class act. But there were three numbers that I could not get past. The numbers: .323. That's Andre Dawson's on-base percentage.

[Vern Gagne 0]

The fact that Raines is the only new candidate in 2008 within a mile of the Hall will help his chances. The sabermetric crowd will boost Raine. If they get support from Peter Gammons, I can see Raines drawing significant support. As it is, I feel comfortable thinking Raines gets at least 60%. Otherwise your assessment is probably right. Next year will be a telling sign of Rice's candidacy.

 

I hope you're right about Raines. I just don't trust the voters. Unless your name is Gwynn, or Henderson it still seems likes you have to work your way up the ballot. Also, how big of an influence does the sabermetric crowd have in the voting at this point?

 

AL. Of the current canidates, and the players set to be eligible who do you see making the HOF?

[Guest Princess Leena]

A-Rod. First ballot. 100% of the vote. He better fucking get it.

[Bored 0]

How come Raines finished so low in MVP voting in 1986?

Writers always give more credit to players on winning teams so the Expos being mediocre hurt him and nevermind playing in Montreal would get you overlooked. Looking at who finished ahead of him, Mike Schmidt wasn't a bad choice at all for winning the award. Then you have Glenn Davis, Gary Carter, and Keith Hernandez. The Mets and Astros blew away the rest of the N.L. that year so them having players receiving good support for the MVP wouldn't be surprising. Problem is that Davis didn't even have the best year on his team, Kevin Bass did, and Carter finishing 3rd that year is laughable especially with his teammate Hernandez being a legit MVP candidate. Dave Parker finished 5th and really there is no logical explanation for him finishing that high. Another guy who had a great year but finished low was Steve Sax who didn't even crack the top 10 as mainly because the Dodgers were lousy that year.

 

Of course then next year Dawson wins on a last place team despite not even being close to being the best player in the N.L. that year but that was one of the most bizarre votes ever. Raines actually was better in '87 than '86 and he was of probably one of at least ten guys who would have been better choices for MVP that season.

[Guest Princess Leena]

It's really sad reading this thread, and then listening to Cowherd on ESPN radio tomorrow say that numbers are meaningless for the HOF, and if you think a player was great, they should be in.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Carter finishing 3rd that year is laughable especially with his teammate Hernandez being a legit MVP candidate.

 

That, and Carter went down to a John Denny vulcan death grip during a Mets and Reds brawl.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Bored laid out Tim Raines' HOF qualifications nicely. Here is another statistic to consider. Raines of course is 5th all time in stolen bases, with 808. He is also the highest percentage base-stealer in baseball history. When you have a hitter who walks 97 times and then steals 90 bases in 104 tries, that's insanely valuable.

 

Raines had a three year stretch where he hit .320, .334 and .330 in consecutive years. To give you an idea of how effective Raines was at the plate, in 1987 Raines was intentionally walked 26 times. A guy with 70+ steals a season and they're putting him on. If you put stock in the Win Shares system, Raines was the best player in the NL for three straight years, 1985-87.

 

Compare Raines to Lou Brock. Brock stole 130 more bases, but was caught stealing 161 more times. Brock had 418 more hits, but 569 less walks. Which player was better? Tim Raines is the second greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history, behind Rickey Henderson. .385 lifetime OBP, 808 stolen bases, 390 career win shares.

[Vern Gagne 0]

A-Rod. First ballot. 100% of the vote. He better fucking get it.

 

No chance of that happening.