Survivor Panama- Exile Island

[starvenger 0]

I've bitched about it on other boards, but haven't mentioned it here ... why do people feel the need to IMMEDIATELY form a huge ass alliance, before even finding out who's worth alligning with?

Three words: Because they're stupid.

 

The Shane-created alliance is already at each other's throats, and they're not even two weeks into the game. They really would have been smarter to wait a few days and see who's a worthy person to call an ally. They're going to lose because of a rash decision (mark my words: Cirie is going to the jury. I don't know why, but she'll manage to make it FAR in this game.)

Cirie was not chosen for this game because she's a physical threat. She's smarter than she lets on, and has been utilizing the Sandra Diaz-Twine "cover your ass" strategy to perfection so far.

 

And the other tribe, same thing: why'd the astronaut feel the need to increase their good alliance of 4 to one of 5 by adding in Ruth Marie? I recognize his fear of alligning with a young girl (thinking she'd flip on his old ass ASAP) but why even bother adding ANYONE to their group of 4? And while we're talking, why would Terry still want to be an ally with the astronaut? It'd make more sense to go with the two young guys and the young girl instead.

Terry's the alpha dog here. In his alliance, Dan's the weak link, so why not keep the Mile High Club intact through to the final two?

 

Did they seriously try to claim that on the show?

Amazingly, yes, the outdoors 'expert' said that it'd work.

Hey, if Miyagi say it work, it work.

 

Also, I don't know how, but Sally makes the knee socks + bikini work.

[naiwf 0]

I'm guessing Ruth Marie and Melinda really wish they'd given Cirie the boot when they had the chance now. That one stupid decision changed the game almost as much as Shane's hastily made alliance has. I still think they're just playing it up because I can't see any of the four siding with Bobby, Bruce or Cirie.

[Lord of The Curry 0]

Terry is officially set until the final four, assuming his alliance w/ Nick, Austin and Dan stays intact. When the merge happens those guys would be smart to try and get Bruce on their side as he's not really involved with anybody from his tribe at the moment.

 

And Danielle went from hot to annoying but still pretty fit last night.

[starvenger 0]

Is there such a thing as a buttervoice? Because that pretty much describes Danielle...

[nl5xsk1 0]

Also, I don't know how, but Sally makes the knee socks + bikini work.

what do you mean you don't know how? That's just a wicked sexy look ... then again, I dig a girl in go-go boots and shorts or a short skirt, and she's pretty much just sporting the island equivalent of it.

 

If the astronaut doesn't perform better these next few challenges time, I'd be inclined to flip on him and vote him off, regardless of the alliance. So far Sally > the astronaut, and thus would be better to have as an ally in the long haul. (Btw, how obvious is it that I don't know that old-guys name?)

[starvenger 0]

Also, I don't know how, but Sally makes the knee socks + bikini work.

what do you mean you don't know how? That's just a wicked sexy look ... then again, I dig a girl in go-go boots and shorts or a short skirt, and she's pretty much just sporting the island equivalent of it.

That's just it. It's an obvious combo, but you'd think it'd end up looking awkward. Almost a "too much skin" thing for something that's meant to tease.

 

Still, I don't think it would work if Courtney, Danielle or Misty tried it. Ruth Marie, maybe. I think I need a grant to study this further...

[nl5xsk1 0]

Wow ... did our conversation about the leggings kill this thread?

[nl5xsk1 0]

How is it that the inept team that can't get along and has (seemingly) inferior members is dominating these challenges? How is it that the 'better' team will go into the merge with - at best - 4 people, while the tribe that seemingly does nothing but fight will go in with at least 5?

 

And most importantly, if Shane is as annoying in real life as he is on the island, how is he NOT getting his ass kicked on a daily basis?

[starvenger 0]

How is it that the inept team that can't get along and has (seemingly) inferior members is dominating these challenges? How is it that the 'better' team will go into the merge with - at best - 4 people, while the tribe that seemingly does nothing but fight will go in with at least 5?

 

And most importantly, if Shane is as annoying in real life as he is on the island, how is he NOT getting his ass kicked on a daily basis?

Because Casaya comes through in crunch time.

 

As for Shane not getting his ass kicked... why do you think he wanted Bobby gone? Bruce is a "attack only if attacked guy", Courtney and Cirie couldn't do it if they tried, Aras doesn't care, and Shane might like if if Danielle tried to choke him out with her boobs (which are starting to become bigger as Danielle's body weight shrinks).

 

BTW, those kids staring at you Danielle? It wasn't because you had toys or because you were a stranger...

[Guest SavageRulz]

La Mina is falling apart

 

I was sorry to see Dan go, but I think they made the right decision considering the circumstances they were in. Sally should have gone before Dan, but that's the way the cookie crumbles in this game.

 

I'm with Cirie on the Casaya tribe. It would have been nice to see Casaya lose just to see Shane booted off. What's with the whole immaturity of this guy? First he SWEARS on his son's name, then begs that the girls give him back his son's name. What a complete and utter moron this guy is.

 

La Mina will have the lowest numbers in a merge. I hope Terry can pull this thing off. Hopefully with how disjointed the Casaya tribe is, he'll be able to worm his way in and still have a chance to pull off a win.

 

Next week, Survivor is on Wednesday night instead of Thursday, then it won't be on for two weeks after that. I think there's some kind of Basketball Championships or something airing in its place.

[starvenger 0]

If it's a merge, then it'll be interesting to see which Casaya member gets the boot, because if Terry doesn't win individual immunity they'll be gunning for him, and he'll be forced to play his "get out of jail free" card - and whoops, second highest number of votes goes home.

 

Mind you, I wouldn't be surprised if everyone gangs up on Shane, but that would be a serious mistake on Casaya's part.

[nl5xsk1 0]

I was sorry to see Dan go, but I think they made the right decision considering the circumstances they were in. Sally should have gone before Dan, but that's the way the cookie crumbles in this game.

I disagree. Sally > Dan. She's done better in each challenge, except for the two that they did equally as bad in (the fish toss from last week & the puzzle from last night). Plus, I think it'd be advantageous to go into the merge with her rather than with Dan ... she might be able to re-allign with the "young girls" and bring them over to a larger alliance, rather than just make it tribe vs. tribe at the merge. Even if she hadn't been sent to Exile Island, if I was the young guys from La Mina, I'd have flipped on Tom & voted him off instead of Sally. Plus, Sally's hot.

 

I think after the merge this season will be less "tribe vs. tribe" than in the past. I just don't see anyone in Casaya really caring enough about each other to stay alligned.

 

Mind you, I wouldn't be surprised if everyone gangs up on Shane, but that would be a serious mistake on Casaya's part.

The only reason that I think keeping Shane would be a good idea is he'd be perfect to take to the F2. EVERYONE hates him, and no one would vote to give him the money. Other than that, though, I can't think of a single reason to keep him around ... why do you think it'd be a mistake?

[starvenger 0]

Mind you, I wouldn't be surprised if everyone gangs up on Shane, but that would be a serious mistake on Casaya's part.

The only reason that I think keeping Shane would be a good idea is he'd be perfect to take to the F2. EVERYONE hates him, and no one would vote to give him the money. Other than that, though, I can't think of a single reason to keep him around ... why do you think it'd be a mistake?

It's still a numbers game. Get rid of Shane and it's now a 5-4 advantage, meaning that it takes only one person to jump to La Mina to turn the tables on Casaya. Wait until you've got a 6-3 advantage, then dump the nutter.

[nl5xsk1 0]

Very good point, Starvenger ... I just don't know if anyone on Casaya is smart enough to think that way.

[starvenger 0]

I can think of one. And she NEEDS to play the numbers game for now...

[Lord of The Curry 0]

I see Shane and Bruce going to Terry and sucking up to him because I think they're both well aware that Aris, Danielle and Courtney will be likely heading in the direction of Austin and Nick.

[naiwf 0]

I think Danielle is in the perfect position to win this assuming the merge is coming soon. She's young so she can easily swing over to an alliance with Austin & Nick. She's female so she will not be considered a threat for the next few eliminations when the Alpha Males start picking each other off. I wouldn't be shocked to see at least the next 2 or 3 eliminations come from the group of Austin, Nick, Terry, Shane, Aras and Bruce. She hasn't really offended anyone and she's a better player in the challenges than Sally, Courtney and Cirie. The only person who I think is a real threat to her is Aras, but I think he's a man of his word and will save her at some point in the stretch run.

[Guest fanofcoils]

This Survivor has been pretty dull so far. Bruce has disappointed in terms of likeability, and so has Terry somewhat. At this point, Terry and Cirie are the only ones deserving of All-Star 2 spots.

[nl5xsk1 0]

BUMP.

 

Marvin Gaye said it best: "Let's get it on, up in this piece." Man, I'm rooting against Austin for that line alone. Sadly, I wouldn't be surprised if that meathead really thought that that was part of the real song.

 

I don't comprehend how Casaya can have such a brutal case of split-personality disorder. One minute they're about to kill each other, the next they're all but holding hands and singing Kumbaya, the next minute they're at each other's throats again. Having said that, the way that Terry came in and immediately tried to get everyone to join him & La Mina was as poorly orchestrated as manageable. It would have been SO much smarter to be a little more laidback and see how they interacted before going to 2/3 of them to turn and join La Mina.

 

As long as my girl Sally (and let me reiterate, niskie <3's Sally) lasts a while, I'll be happy.

[starvenger 0]

I don't comprehend how Casaya can have such a brutal case of split-personality disorder. One minute they're about to kill each other, the next they're all but holding hands and singing Kumbaya, the next minute they're at each other's throats again. Having said that, the way that Terry came in and immediately tried to get everyone to join him & La Mina was as poorly orchestrated as manageable. It would have been SO much smarter to be a little more laidback and see how they interacted before going to 2/3 of them to turn and join La Mina.

It's even more surprising seeing as Terry's operated pretty well to this point. And next week, it looks like he'll do something even more moronic than Austin - reveal that he indeed has the Immunity Talisman. Although with a 6-3 advantage, bumping Shane off is a distinct possibility as this group seems to not want to give him $100,000 in order to win $1,000,000.

 

As long as my girl Sally (and let me reiterate, niskie <3's Sally) lasts a while, I'll be happy.

And keep Danielle there too. Especially if they keep having challenges where she's got a good chance of popping out of her buff.

[nl5xsk1 0]

I was hoping that Terry was going to lose the IC last night, and thus need to use his Immunity Idol last night. Casaya votes Terry; La Mina votes Shane; Terry whips out his idol and <voila> Shane's eliminated as a result of finishing second.

 

And, yeah, I couldn't figure out the angle that he was playing with the Idol last night, in the teasers for next week. Hopefully it makes more sense when the show's actually on, as it now looks like a complete "WTF?" situation.

 

And keep Danielle there too. Especially if they keep having challenges where she's got a good chance of popping out of her buff.

Danielle's your girl, Starvenger ... I didn't want to step on your toes by leering at her. But now that you mentioned her, whoever convinced her to buy that bikini (let alone bring it to the show) deserves a medal of honor or a national holiday or SOMETHING. Danielle is likely safe for a long while, though. Another 2 or all three remaining La Mina members, Shane & Courtney are all more likely targets than Danielle.

[naiwf 0]

I was hoping that Terry was going to lose the IC last night, and thus need to use his Immunity Idol last night. Casaya votes Terry; La Mina votes Shane; Terry whips out his idol and <voila> Shane's eliminated as a result of finishing second.

 

And, yeah, I couldn't figure out the angle that he was playing with the Idol last night, in the teasers for next week. Hopefully it makes more sense when the show's actually on, as it now looks like a complete "WTF?" situation.

 

And keep Danielle there too. Especially if they keep having challenges where she's got a good chance of popping out of her buff.

Danielle's your girl, Starvenger ... I didn't want to step on your toes by leering at her. But now that you mentioned her, whoever convinced her to buy that bikini (let alone bring it to the show) deserves a medal of honor or a national holiday or SOMETHING. Danielle is likely safe for a long while, though. Another 2 or all three remaining La Mina members, Shane & Courtney are all more likely targets than Danielle.

 

I didn't see the show last night, but I think Terry figures if he lets everyone know he has the immunity idol they won't bother trying to vote him out since he'd save himself and then someone from the alliance of 6 would surely end up getting eliminated instead. Basically he's trying to bluff them into letting him linger for a bit without having to burn up his ace in the hole. Shane's paranoid enough to realize the very scenario you listed could play out against him. At this point Terry's on the short side, so if he can survive the 2 eliminations of his allies without wasting the idol, he's better off than if he had to use it already. Better to make the final 7 with the idol than have to use it at the F9 vote out. At least, I would hope that's his thought process.

[starvenger 0]

And keep Danielle there too. Especially if they keep having challenges where she's got a good chance of popping out of her buff.

Danielle's your girl, Starvenger ... I didn't want to step on your toes by leering at her. But now that you mentioned her, whoever convinced her to buy that bikini (let alone bring it to the show) deserves a medal of honor or a national holiday or SOMETHING. Danielle is likely safe for a long while, though. Another 2 or all three remaining La Mina members, Shane & Courtney are all more likely targets than Danielle.

Hey, leer away. I still do that with Sally. I'm still mystified as to how the bikini/knee socks combo makes her hotter than when she goes bikini only though. But obviously, she does look hotter dressed like that and I did spend way too much time thinking about it...

 

I didn't see the show last night, but I think Terry figures if he lets everyone know he has the immunity idol they won't bother trying to vote him out since he'd save himself and then someone from the alliance of 6 would surely end up getting eliminated instead. Basically he's trying to bluff them into letting him linger for a bit without having to burn up his ace in the hole. Shane's paranoid enough to realize the very scenario you listed could play out against him. At this point Terry's on the short side, so if he can survive the 2 eliminations of his allies without wasting the idol, he's better off than if he had to use it already. Better to make the final 7 with the idol than have to use it at the F9 vote out. At least, I would hope that's his thought process.

Good points. We've seen Terry play for the "team" up until now, but now that the merge has happened, maybe we're seeing Terry's "Kobe Bryant" side emerge and he's out for himself now.

[nl5xsk1 0]

Hey, leer away. I still do that with Sally. I'm still mystified as to how the bikini/knee socks combo makes her hotter than when she goes bikini only though. But obviously, she does look hotter dressed like that and I did spend way too much time thinking about it...

 

I'm going to have to ask you to stop leering at my girl, Starvenger ... she's mine, all mine! ;-) And, yeah I can't quite figure out how she gets hotter with the socks. I like her without 'em, but like her so much more with them.

 

 

And I agree with naiwf's theory, but I don't really see how (in Casaya's minds) it'd make sense to keep him around. He's going to have that Idol to use, regardless if it's right away or a month from now. Why not make him use it ASAP, rather than letting him keep it as a future asset? Yeah, it'd suck for whomever gets pinched from Casaya (likely Shane) but it'll come back to haunt them regardless of when it's used.

[naiwf 0]

Hey, leer away. I still do that with Sally. I'm still mystified as to how the bikini/knee socks combo makes her hotter than when she goes bikini only though. But obviously, she does look hotter dressed like that and I did spend way too much time thinking about it...

 

I'm going to have to ask you to stop leering at my girl, Starvenger ... she's mine, all mine! ;-) And, yeah I can't quite figure out how she gets hotter with the socks. I like her without 'em, but like her so much more with them.

 

 

And I agree with naiwf's theory, but I don't really see how (in Casaya's minds) it'd make sense to keep him around. He's going to have that Idol to use, regardless if it's right away or a month from now. Why not make him use it ASAP, rather than letting him keep it as a future asset? Yeah, it'd suck for whomever gets pinched from Casaya (likely Shane) but it'll come back to haunt them regardless of when it's used.

 

Here's the quick and easy answer. There are 9 people on the island now, with the split being 6/3. Assuming Terry doesn't win the IC and has to burn up the idol it'll be a 5/3 split with Shane most likely getting booted. At that point, all that the 3 would need to do is flip one person who is unhappy (Cirie or Bruce come to mind) to even the sides up at 4, and if they got both of them now it's anyone's game as Danielle, Aras and Courtney would be on the short end (3/5) after controlling the game from day 1 basically.

 

However, if you make Terry sit on the idol and get rid of Sally and Austin, it's a clear cut 6 against 1 scenario. Then you make Terry waste the idol at the next opportunity, you get rid of Shane and now it's 5 on 1 but Terry has no inherent advantage as the idol is gone and he has no way of convincing anyone to flip with promises of numerical superiority. The alliance of Danielle, Aras and Courtney then has no worse than 50% of the vote and can dictate play for the remainder of the game even without Shane.

[nl5xsk1 0]

Ahhh ... good explanation, naiwf. Makes sense to me.

 

My only rebuttal (and it's just playing Devil's Advocate) is that there's no guarantee that Casaya alliance will stay strong long enough for that all to come to fruition. It's a foolproof plan if the tribe of 6 stays together long enough for them to eliminate Austin & niskie's girlfriend.

[naiwf 0]

It's amazing to think Bruce waited like 10-12 days to start seriously complaining that he wasn't feeling well. The dude's fucking crazy. It's not worth $ 1 million dollars to possibly die on some island in the middle of nowhere.

[nl5xsk1 0]

I don't think that he waited because of the money, I think that he waited because he didn't realize the seriousness. He just thought he was constipated, and that the stomach pains were associated with that. Once it got to the point that he was doubled-over & writhing in pain, he realized that it was more than just an inability to take a crap.

 

While watching this series, know who I feel bad for? Boston, Shane's son. Having a father that is THAT immature is bound to lead to problems as he grows up. When Shane freaked out at the challenge, first because Cerie had the 'audacity' to eliminate him and then when she <gasp> chose someone besides him to go along, it was laughable. He was like a fucking 6-year-old that wasn't getting his way.

 

I'll be bullshit if he wins the million.

 

Oh, and it goes without saying, but: I miss Sally already.

[Lord of The Curry 0]

Shane was spot-on when he said that Courtney was his dream pick to take to the final two because nobody would vote for her. More to the point, she's the only person Shane has a shot against because nobody would vote for him against Terry, Cirie, Danielle or Aras.

[nl5xsk1 0]

So, I'm reading Us Magazine this past weekend (shut up, I was at my friend Joan's house, and she subscribes) and there's a small blurb about how there's potentially a "leak" about who this season's winner is.

 

Evidently the webpage that takes bets on these sorts of things (bodog, I think) received a huge influx of max bets on one person, to the point that it raised a flag about the winner being leaked ... and it's believed a "close associate" of the person that everyone was all of a sudden betting on is the source. And, best of all, Us wasn't cryptic about who it was, and showed their picture and gave their name, pretty much spoiling it for everyone unfortunate enough to read their horrid magazine.

 

If it turns out that the leak is accurate, the winner is

Danielle. And she looked really good in the picture, so it'd catch your eye even if you just flipped past the page while speed-reading the issue. And the main reason that I'm writing all of this is to make it so the spoiler was more than just the one word, "Danielle".