TWiB: Week of April 16-22

[naiwf 0]

Since no new thread is up, Loretta just hit a walk off 2 run HR giving the Sawx a 7-6 win over the M's on Patriots Day. Big Papi went deep twice, and Shelton hit his 9th in the Detroit game.

[KingPK 0]

It must have sucked for Seattle fans to watch the Mariners game at 8 in the morning today.

 

Chris Shelton is so far the greatest fantasy pick I've ever made. I nabbed him in like the 12th round of my draft.

[Guest Sylvan Grenier]

Greg Maddux is heading into Dodger Stadium tonight with a curiously high 2-0 and curiously low 1.46 ERA. I'd say he's due for a bad night, but I don't want to jinx him, and I don't think the Dodgers are really that good anyway. Game isn't on until 9, though! Speaking of ERAs and Dodgers, Brad Penny is at 1.50, and with several innings of shutout ball (which naturally I do not want), a Penny means one.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Albert Pujols has now homered in four consecutive at bats. At this rate, he'll pass Bonds by July.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Jose Lima's making a terrific impression tonight in Scranton, allowing eight runs in the first three innings. The Barons collected five extra base hits in the first inning alone.

[naiwf 0]

Why does anyone pitch to Pujols again?

 

Xavier Nady is on fire this season. Unfortunately Pedro isn't his best tonight and will be lucky to complete 6 innings at this rate.

[devo 0]

I'm enjoying this game thus far, but why the hell does Randolph keep sticking Jose Valentin into the game whenever a spot opens up? Both Diaz and Woodward would be ridiculously better choices to replace Floyd.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I think Jose Valentin's better than Woodward.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

David Newhan fractured his fibula..just the same time as I added him to my fantasy team..bleh. And I didnt start Cabrera and he's got a shutout through 6.

 

Anyway..

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Damn. That sucks to hear for any player. It didn't seem that serious on the radio.

[devo 0]

I think Jose Valentin's better than Woodward.

 

I've gotta disagree with you. Valentin's been getting steadily worse over the past few years. In his 147 ABs last year, Valentin hit with a line of .170/.320/.265 whereas Woodward used his 173 ABs to hit .283/.337/.393.

 

In his prime, Valentin was a considerably better hitter than Woodward (who's not great, but passable), sure, but he hasn't shown any of that hitting prowess in about three or four years.

[naiwf 0]

Andruw Jones just pulverized one deep into the night against the wind.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I think Jose Valentin's better than Woodward.

 

I've gotta disagree with you. Valentin's been getting steadily worse over the past few years. In his 147 ABs last year, Valentin hit with a line of .170/.320/.265 whereas Woodward used his 173 ABs to hit .283/.337/.393.

 

In his prime, Valentin was a considerably better hitter than Woodward (who's not great, but passable), sure, but he hasn't shown any of that hitting prowess in about three or four years.

I just don't trust less than 200 at bats to get a true read on a player. Valentin battled injuries last year. Two years ago he hit 30 home runs. That's more than Woodward's hit his entire career.

[devo 0]

The Mets' bullpen turns in a strong performance, helping Pedro get his 200th win. Good game.

[naiwf 0]

Sanchez reminds me a bit of K-Rod when he was Percival's set-up man, although he's clearly not on that level. I hope we can take one of the next two and keep putting pressure on the rest of the division.

[strummer 0]

I'm worried about how Randolph uses the pen. By this rate, Sanchez's arm is going to fall off my mid June. Same thing with Looper and Hernandez last year. Why not use Chad Bradford once in a while?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I should note a minor correction from last week's topic. Kaz Matsui was not sent down to AAA Norfolk, he's there on a rehab assignment.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

Greg Maddux is putting on a clinic at the expense of the Dodgers right now.

[Guest Sylvan Grenier]

3-0, 1.33. I approve.

 

Brewers blew a game to the Astros, and the Giants are blowing one to the D-Backs. I'm indifferent on the former, pleased with the latter.

[vivalaultra 0]

3-0, 1.33. I approve.

 

Brewers blew a game to the Astros, and the Giants are blowing one to the D-Backs. I'm indifferent on the former, pleased with the latter.

 

 

ASTRO POWER!!!!! Seriously, the 'Stros are lookin' good this season. 9-4. Ensberg, Berkman, and Lane are looking monster. Wilson's looking pretty good, except tonite. He struck out five times. Does anybody know if it's stastically more likely for a player to strike out swinging five times in a game or get five hits in a game? Ya gotta think, that in five at bats, you gotta put it in play once....And that is my Astros comment of the week, which will soon be ignored in favor of more marketable teams.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

3-0, 1.33. I approve.

 

Brewers blew a game to the Astros, and the Giants are blowing one to the D-Backs. I'm indifferent on the former, pleased with the latter.

 

 

ASTRO POWER!!!!! Seriously, the 'Stros are lookin' good this season. 9-4. Ensberg, Berkman, and Lane are looking monster. Wilson's looking pretty good, except tonite. He struck out five times. Does anybody know if it's stastically more likely for a player to strike out swinging five times in a game or get five hits in a game? Ya gotta think, that in five at bats, you gotta put it in play once....And that is my Astros comment of the week, which will soon be ignored in favor of more marketable teams.

It's quite easy to figure out. Just check if a player's rate of strikeouts over plate appearances is higher or lower than his batting average. In Preston Wilson's case, he's struck out more often than he's collected hits in his career. So five strikeouts are more likely. Still, the odds against collecting five strikeouts, even for Wilson, are extremely low. This is one of the easier statistical methods. I'm using Wilson's career stats up to this year. He has come to the plate 3,831 times, and struck out 947 times. That means he strikes out in approximately 25% of his at bats. All you need to do to find the probability of a streak is carry that number to whatever power you need. So .25 to the fifth power is .000976. You can round that up to one/thousandth if you prefer. So if we gave Preston Wilson 1,000 sets of five plate appearances, we'd expect him to strike out five times once. And he just did it.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Fantastic news for Nationals fans, as Jim Bowden has been arrested and charged with DUI.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Fantastic news for Nationals fans, as Jim Bowden has been arrested and charged with DUI.

 

At least we have an explanation for the moves he's made.

[vivalaultra 0]

3-0, 1.33. I approve.

 

Brewers blew a game to the Astros, and the Giants are blowing one to the D-Backs. I'm indifferent on the former, pleased with the latter.

 

 

ASTRO POWER!!!!! Seriously, the 'Stros are lookin' good this season. 9-4. Ensberg, Berkman, and Lane are looking monster. Wilson's looking pretty good, except tonite. He struck out five times. Does anybody know if it's stastically more likely for a player to strike out swinging five times in a game or get five hits in a game? Ya gotta think, that in five at bats, you gotta put it in play once....And that is my Astros comment of the week, which will soon be ignored in favor of more marketable teams.

It's quite easy to figure out. Just check if a player's rate of strikeouts over plate appearances is higher or lower than his batting average. In Preston Wilson's case, he's struck out more often than he's collected hits in his career. So five strikeouts are more likely. Still, the odds against collecting five strikeouts, even for Wilson, are extremely low. This is one of the easier statistical methods. I'm using Wilson's career stats up to this year. He has come to the plate 3,831 times, and struck out 947 times. That means he strikes out in approximately 25% of his at bats. All you need to do to find the probability of a streak is carry that number to whatever power you need. So .25 to the fifth power is .000976. You can round that up to one/thousandth if you prefer. So if we gave Preston Wilson 1,000 sets of five plate appearances, we'd expect him to strike out five times once. And he just did it.

 

I find that fascinating and wish to subscribe to your newsletter. Do you, offhand, know which ML team has the lowest combined WHIP throughout their history?

[Guest OKCoyote]

Griffey has made has annual trip to the DL. He's off to an early start this season.

[Guest Sylvan Grenier]

I deeply regret any embarrassment that my arrest may cause the Washington Nationals and Major League Baseball.

Drunk driving is actually fairly down the list in terms of things that make Jim Bowden look utterly competent

[Hawk 34 0]

I deeply regret any embarrassment that my arrest may cause the Washington Nationals and Major League Baseball.

Drunk driving is actually fairly down the list in terms of things that make Jim Bowden look utterly competent

 

It's cute, how that statement followed the blurb about Junior's annual DL stint.

[Guest NYankees]

Was Arod's 2 run homerun Clutch? I am sure haters are going to say that the Yankees already had a 1-0 lead.

[Guest Smues]

I just accidentally flipped by ESPN while Bonds On Bonds was on and saw Bill Plasche rambling on about something. Yeah because Barry Bonds isn't enough to make me not wanna watch.

 

Oh and Atlanta out to an early 2-0 lead. I'll guess we lose it in the 3rd...no let's make it 4th inning.

[CanadianGuitarist 0]

Johnny Damon just made a fine catch off the wall, to prevent extra bases for Vernon Wells, and what would have been a 4-2 score for the Yanks.

 

EDIT: Glaus hammers it, and it's now 4-3. The Score was really hyping up the Johnson-Chacin pitcher's duel.