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Mole

WWE Stock is up...

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I was looking at the Raw rating and how much it has risen in the past few months. I was thinking that maybe the stock is up too. Soo I looked it up at Google and the stock is selling at 17.16 right now, up 15.02 from the beginning of the year and up from 11.13 this time last year. This is the highest it has ever been.

 

Would this be a good time to invest in WWE? Or will it drop?

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The highest price that stock has ever been was around $22 IIRC, which was what was being at the IPO. You are probably looking at the 52 week high.

 

The company has been buying back stock, which drives the price up. From my own observations the stock price has little to do with how the company itself is performing, however the WWE has been exceeding forecasts lately (which were low to begin with) and due to international touring has been generating revenue at an inflated rate. Eventually the international touring well will dry up, and since domestic is still not good, I would say "no" to investing in the WWE. It won't go back to being above $20, IMO, so you're looking at very little gain right now. Unless you want to invest tens of thousands, because the WWE frequently gives dividends (essentially to give Vince more money) and if you own 10,000 shares, you'll be making 5,000 more every year (before taxes).

 

Then you got WWE Films, which they have been avoiding putting on the balance sheet. Not to mention WWE Music. Their track record hasn't been too good outside their core product (Wrestling), so the probable losses from these two ventures will hurt the company and the stock price. IMO The price right now is being artificially driven up by several factors, and eventually it will fall.

 

Ratings mean little because they do not get any money from advertisements and they get relatively low rates anyways because advertisers don't see wrestling fans as being a desirable demographic to go after.

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WWE films will make money. Not fortunes, but certainly enough to put profits up. Afew million or so per movie.

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I highly doubt it.

 

The average PPV buyrate is, what, 300,000? In regards to buying DVD's and music, that seems to be a pretty good number of fans who will buy anything the WWE does. That translates into $3,000,000 at the B/O with $10 per ticket. Half of that goes to the theatres/distributors, which means $1.5 million to the WWE. I doubt there will be a whole lot of attention outside of wrestling fans because (1)there are no stars, and (2)it's associated with the WWE and wrestling is a turn-off right now. Word is the WWE has invested $20 million per film. Even if the production budget and marketing around it is half that, they still have a big gap to fill.

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I was reading a decent article the other day about Uwe Boll, the German Guy who directed Blood Rayne, Alone In The Dark and House Of The Dead, all based around cult video games.

 

None of these movies were any good (if fact they were terrible), but the fact that the games had a core fanboy audience, along with the fact that he bought the rights and produced the movies in house, meant that he's been able to turn a profit on them.

 

The success of this movie isn't about the box office (although I reckon it will break the top 10), it's about the DVD sales, it's about the marketing, it's about making the outside entertainment industry view them as more "credible". And how many of us on the board are gonna watch See No Evil or The Mrine, if only to bitch about it the next day.

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You think See No Evil will sell a million DVDs when the WWE's best selling DVDs can't crack half of that?

 

This will do nothing but make the WWE and the McMahons further look like total goofs. And very few people on this board will watch that crap. You'll get maybe a dozen people out of how many ever people are on here who will check it out.

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I was reading a decent article the other day about Uwe Boll, the German Guy who directed Blood Rayne, Alone In The Dark and House Of The Dead, all based around cult video games.

 

None of these movies were any good (if fact they were terrible), but the fact that the games had a core fanboy audience, along with the fact that he bought the rights and produced the movies in house, meant that he's been able to turn a profit on them.

 

The success of this movie isn't about the box office (although I reckon it will break the top 10), it's about the DVD sales, it's about the marketing, it's about making the outside entertainment industry view them as more "credible". And how many of us on the board are gonna watch See No Evil or The Mrine, if only to bitch about it the next day.

 

Boll was able to turn a profit because he never had to pay back investors thanks to a tax shelter law. By box office and DVD sales, Boll has never come close to making his money back on any film he has ever directed. WWE doesn't have the loophole that keeps Boll going.

 

WWE is using their own money, Boll hasn't used a dime of his own money, just the money of the German arts program. So if the WWE invests 20 million into a film and it bombs like a Boll movie, say 1.5 million to 5 million at the box office, they would need a miracle in terms of DVD sales to save them.

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I was reading a decent article the other day about Uwe Boll, the German Guy who directed Blood Rayne, Alone In The Dark and House Of The Dead, all based around cult video games.

 

None of these movies were any good (if fact they were terrible), but the fact that the games had a core fanboy audience, along with the fact that he bought the rights and produced the movies in house, meant that he's been able to turn a profit on them.

 

The success of this movie isn't about the box office (although I reckon it will break the top 10), it's about the DVD sales, it's about the marketing, it's about making the outside entertainment industry view them as more "credible". And how many of us on the board are gonna watch See No Evil or The Mrine, if only to bitch about it the next day.

 

Boll was able to turn a profit because he never had to pay back investors thanks to a tax shelter law. By box office and DVD sales, Boll has never come close to making his money back on any film he has ever directed. WWE doesn't have the loophole that keeps Boll going.

 

WWE is using their own money, Boll hasn't used a dime of his own money, just the money of the German arts program. So if the WWE invests 20 million into a film and it bombs like a Boll movie, say 1.5 million to 5 million at the box office, they would need a miracle in terms of DVD sales to save them.

Fair enough.

 

I still reckon they'll do okay though.

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I think the problem with See no Evil is that they probably wont advertise it much outside of WWE programming..

 

And when they have, the catchphrases have been so incredibly horrible.

HORROR GETS RAW!

SOMEONE IS RAISING KANE!

 

They aren't even trying to aim outside of their fanbase.

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But WWE is one hell of an advertisement.

 

Sometimes the WWE name can do more harm than good for a movie. And poor advertising can destroy even the best movies and make them flop.

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I'm going to say that See No Evil at least hits the 20 million mark for total gross. Aren't horror movies doing well right now? I know the WWE name will be a turnoff for a lot of people, but I can see this one doing decent at the Box Office, and making a good amount through rentals.

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I think that the general fanbase for a horror movie isn't going to be put off by the WWE name.

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Which is only significant in regards to wrestling.

 

This will fail, and here's why:

 

The WWE is at the bottom of the barrell. They are past being a joke and are just lame right now, and everything they touch becomes lame, but wrestling fans are also at the bottom of the barrell so they don't really mind. And why the WWEs projects outside of wrestling fail is because that hardcore audience that doesn't mind, that is willing to gobble up all the crap is fed to them, simply isn't big enough to support the grand aspirations that Vince McMahon has. Plus, they are really only interested in wrestling from the WWE, because everything else -music, movies, football, whatever- tends to be done much better by other companies. Their video games do well because that is still within their core product and stays true to the fans' interests in wrestling.

 

Also, I think Vince is devoid of good taste, completely disconnected from reality, and can't tell the difference between what is good and what is bad. Vince cannot recognize good, he only knows what he likes. The fans know what is good, they respond to it, and Vince can then see the response and at least know that other people like it and that he should push it and promote it. At least, he once was able to. Nowadays someone like Matt Hardy will gain a following and Vince will see that people are responding and have no idea why and therefore will not know what to do with him. The same goes with his other ventures and projects. Vince is so blinded by being the Multi Media Mogul that he can't tell that a movie division is a bad idea. The WWE's writing is among the worst I have ever seen on television, which says something for how the WWE chooses its writers, which flows over to their movie division.

 

People don't watch the WWE for its writing or its acting, because both are awful, and movies tend to be primarily about writing and acting. I can't imagine many people watching the WWE and saying to themselves "Gosh, this storyline is so great, why doesn't the WWE go into movies?". For me, its the other way around. I see a TV show or a movie and say "Gosh, this storyline is so great, why doesn't writer/director x go into wrestling?". There isn't a logical progression from what the WWE does to movies, no matter how hard Vince tries to connect the two.

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I think See no Evil will do alright, hell it might even do amazing considering the genre. But Horror fans are fickle and can turn with the breeze about what they will and won't see. I think so far Hostel with 47.8 million has been the top of the horror lot this year and that promised SAW like gore.

 

Here's the things that worry me:

#1: The advertising has been lame as possible, I mean really bad.

#2: The director, Gregory Dark is known mostly for porn films and music videos (Britney Spears and Bone Thugs)

#3: The writer has only done WWE SMACKDOWN, that is his full list of accomplishments

#4: People have been laughing at the trailer, not in a "must see bad" way but in a "oh my god, how sad" way

 

I hope the WWE films do ok, because if they don't then the fans and wrestlers will pay for it.

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#2: The director, Gregory Dark is known mostly for porn films and music videos (Britney Spears and Bone Thugs)

 

How can you doubt the man who directed the Between the Cheeks series, and Hootermania?

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What the hell is the movie about anyway?

 

A group of delinquents are sent to clean the Blackwell Hotel. Little do they know reclusive psychopath Jacob Goodnight (Jacobs) has holed away in the rotting hotel. When one of the teens is captured, those who remain -- a group that includes the cop who put a bullet in Goodnight's head four years ago -- band together to survive against the brutal killer

 

There you go.

 

And I'd never doubt Mr Dark if this was a porn film. But it's not. Although he did direct the great DEVIL IN MISS JONES series so maybe I'm being too hard on him. But when I think of the first movie I'm releasing as a production company, the last thing I want to do is hire a man whose main work has been porn.

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Back on the original topic, don't forget that WM is probably going to be about 200,000 buys below expectation due to the fact that no one at WWE would admit to themselves how shitty the card was.

 

As far as See No Evil goes, I'd guess that it makes about $5,000,000 to $10,000,000 since that's what really shitty horror movies with a little bit of a commercial push tend to get nowadays. I think the WWE's banking on their movies to succeed because The Rock's movies have done well, but they're missing the fact that Kane has no fanbase that even approaches that of The Rock. In that same vein, I'd guess that The Marine actually does a little better since Cena's fanbase follows him so strongly and stubbornly. Nothing monstrous, but maybe $12,000,000 or so.

 

If they really are spending $20,000,000 per film though, they'll have a hell of a time recouping that investment.

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The budget for SNE was actually around $8 million USD, so that lowers the bar significantly. Today it was announced that Austin's film 'The Condemned' starts shooting May 15 in AUS. IIRC his is the first WWE Films production to have the $20 million budget. 'The Marine' was filmed for $8 million and comes out September 8.

 

Honestly, I don't see the movie doing too badly. The WWE label isn't overt enough to push people away from the movie. I think that people will go to this movie because, well, it's the only horror movie coming out between late April and June 6.

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What the hell is the movie about anyway?

 

A group of delinquents are sent to clean the Blackwell Hotel. Little do they know reclusive psychopath Jacob Goodnight (Jacobs) has holed away in the rotting hotel. When one of the teens is captured, those who remain -- a group that includes the cop who put a bullet in Goodnight's head four years ago -- band together to survive against the brutal killer

 

There you go.

 

 

 

Don't forget, Kane wants to rip everybody's eyeballs out.

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