MLB Off-season Thread

[Brett Favre 0]

Melky, not Miguel.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I know, he's not a sure fire future HOF'er, but I think "isn't any good" is a GROSS underestimation.

 

 

He has a career OPS+ of 90. Other than his stong arm, he doesn't field very well. Other than being young and cheap (which is something), he isn't any good.

 

His VORP of 9.8 makes him just a few runs better than a replacement level hitter.

[migoli 0]

Yeah sorry i did mean to say Torii is still THE best CF in the game, if you dont agree i really want to hear who you think is better.

 

Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones, Coco Crisp and Curtis Granderson are without a doubt the four best defensive centerfielders in baseball. There is no agrument there.

 

After that, there's a definite falloff to the next group of guys. Ichiro, Hunter, Juan Pierre, Aaron Rowand and Vernon Wells alll have their strengths and weaknesses. I'm sure I'm missing a few guys, but that would at least make up the upper tier of defensive centerfielders.

 

 

Well when i look at fielding % and see Torii at .995 along with Sizemore with only Ichiro and Coco ahead at .998 and seeing the plays Torii has been making for years.......call me crazy but i will take Torii over the list you put together

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Yeah sorry i did mean to say Torii is still THE best CF in the game, if you dont agree i really want to hear who you think is better.

 

Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones, Coco Crisp and Curtis Granderson are without a doubt the four best defensive centerfielders in baseball. There is no agrument there.

 

After that, there's a definite falloff to the next group of guys. Ichiro, Hunter, Juan Pierre, Aaron Rowand and Vernon Wells alll have their strengths and weaknesses. I'm sure I'm missing a few guys, but that would at least make up the upper tier of defensive centerfielders.

 

 

Well when i look at fielding % and see Torii at .995 along with Sizemore with only Ichiro and Coco ahead at .998 and seeing the plays Torii has been making for years.......call me crazy but i will take Torii over the list you put together

 

Please, you aren't going to waste everyone's time citing FIELDING %(!) as an indicator of defensive value.

 

Below are the 2007 +/- numbers comprised by Baseball Info Solutions for this year's Fielding Bible awards:

 

Beltran +25

A. Jones +24

Crisp +22

Granderson +21

Logan +21

Amezaga +15

J. Jones +13

J. Owens +11

Pierre +5

Ichiro +4

 

Futhermore, using the sortable function for stats at Hardball Times shows him 11th in zone rating and 13th in out of zone plays. This year was the worst defensive performance he's had recently. If expand the data set to the last three years, he's a top 10 guy.

 

Robbing homeruns off the trash bag does not make one a great fielder.

[migoli 0]

Ok let's roll with the last 3 years bit here and include the countless HRs he took back from ALL stadiums, the over the shoulder catchs i personally have seen many time (That Juan Uribe play comes to mind) and just his fearless plays knowing there are steel beams behind that wall in the dome that do hurt ( I had tryouts there once and wanted to see how much they really do hurt) its downright ignorant to not at least call him top 3.

 

Oh and lets not forget to mention he played in the dome, its next to impossible to see that ball in that ceiling. But if sticking to just pure numbers is all that matters thats cool too I guess

[Precious Roy 0]

I know, he's not a sure fire future HOF'er, but I think "isn't any good" is a GROSS underestimation.

 

Other than his stong arm, he doesn't field very well.

 

Bullshit. His defensive numbers were fine last year. He had a better Range Factor and Zone Rating than Ichiro, Andruw Jones and a lot of other respected center fielders. You already mentioned his cannon of arm which is a major tool for a centerfielder. His fielding % wasn't great but that probably has something to do with having to cover so much ground to make up for the defensive liabilities we had in left, and Abreu's range being diminished. Plus wasn't he a left fielder in the minors?

 

There's no way anyone can actually watch Melky Cabrera play and say he doesn't field very well. None. The guy is good.

 

[migoli 0]

I can see this turning into someone thinking I thought Torii deserved the 90 mill he got, I completely believed that was way too much.

[mike546 0]

If the Sox get Santana for Lester (a shitty half year and an ok half year when the guy has NEVER had any semblence of control) Crisp (28, not very good, and not getting any better), Lowrie (had a TERRIBLE year two years ago) and Masterson (who doesn't project to be anything but a 2 or 3 at best and doesn't have blolw away stats) It will be another example of the Sox getting a great player for a lot less than the Yanks would get him for. Melky is 23, cheaper than Coco and can get better, Kennedy was the minor league pitcher of the year and had some great starts down the stretch, Horne I guess equals Masteron, and Tabata has the tools and is projected to be an all star player.

 

The Yankee offer shits on the Sox offer imo.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

Ok let's roll with the last 3 years bit here and include the countless HRs he took back from ALL stadiums, the over the shoulder catchs i personally have seen many time (That Juan Uribe play comes to mind) and just his fearless plays knowing there are steel beams behind that wall in the dome that do hurt ( I had tryouts there once and wanted to see how much they really do hurt) its downright ignorant to not at least call him top 3.

 

Oh and lets not forget to mention he played in the dome, its next to impossible to see that ball in that ceiling. But if sticking to just pure numbers is all that matters thats cool too I guess

 

Numbers are more important than anecdotes when evaluating humans' performance at sports, particularly baseball.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Bullshit. His defensive numbers were fine last year. He had a better Range Factor and Zone Rating than Ichiro, Andruw Jones and a lot of other respected center fielders. You already mentioned his cannon of arm which is a major tool for a centerfielder. His fielding % wasn't great but that probably has something to do with having to cover so much ground to make up for the defensive liabilities we had in left, and Abreu's range being diminished. Plus wasn't he a left fielder in the minors?

 

There's no way anyone can actually watch Melky Cabrera play and say he doesn't field very well. None. The guy is good.

 

Once again pointing to the Fielding Bible (seriously guys check this thing out... it's the closest thing we have to reliable defensive numbers), Melky was a -22 defender in center last year. That's the second worst in all of baseball.

 

Watching Melky play, he shades back really far. This helps him avoid long fly balls that would normally go over his head because of his diminished range and subpar reads. It protects the team from the big play, but allows a lot of easy singles to drop in (by the way this is smart at least...better to give up the less damaging hits). However, it doesn't make him any good compared to other outfielders.

[Brett Favre 0]

I'm pretty sure the "Fielding Bible" was the only baseball stat-geek infosheet or whatever to rate him as a bad centerfielder. Others have him as an above average centerfielder.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

If the Sox get Santana for Lester (a shitty half year and an ok half year when the guy has NEVER had any semblence of control) Crisp (28, not very good, and not getting any better), Lowrie (had a TERRIBLE year two years ago) and Masterson (who doesn't project to be anything but a 2 or 3 at best and doesn't have blolw away stats) It will be another example of the Sox getting a great player for a lot less than the Yanks would get him for. Melky is 23, cheaper than Coco and can get better, Kennedy was the minor league pitcher of the year and had some great starts down the stretch, Horne I guess equals Masteron, and Tabata has the tools and is projected to be an all star player.

 

The Yankee offer shits on the Sox offer imo.

 

We seriously need a non-Yanks, non-Sox fan with understanding of the minor league talent (paging Al Keiper) to weigh in on these respective players. I tried to bring in outside analysis from Kevin Goldstein, but that was shunned.

 

I really feel like the Yanks guys are overrating their talent. Hughes and Chamberlain are flat out monsters. I understand that. But everyone else is just sort of there, each with their own upside and potential faults. They are comparable to talents from many other teams. Just because Cashman likes to lump Kennedy in as the big 3 doesn't make it so.

[mike546 0]

If the Sox get Santana for Lester (a shitty half year and an ok half year when the guy has NEVER had any semblence of control) Crisp (28, not very good, and not getting any better), Lowrie (had a TERRIBLE year two years ago) and Masterson (who doesn't project to be anything but a 2 or 3 at best and doesn't have blolw away stats) It will be another example of the Sox getting a great player for a lot less than the Yanks would get him for. Melky is 23, cheaper than Coco and can get better, Kennedy was the minor league pitcher of the year and had some great starts down the stretch, Horne I guess equals Masteron, and Tabata has the tools and is projected to be an all star player.

 

The Yankee offer shits on the Sox offer imo.

 

We seriously need a non-Yanks, non-Sox fan with understanding of the minor league talent (paging Al Keiper) to weigh in on these respective players. I tried to bring in outside analysis from Kevin Goldstein, but that was shunned.

 

I really feel like the Yanks guys are overrating their talent. Hughes and Chamberlain are flat out monsters. I understand that. But everyone else is just sort of there, each with their own upside and potential faults. They are comparable to talents from many other teams. Just because Cashman likes to lump Kennedy in as the big 3 doesn't make it so.

 

 

Why? Kennedy has dominated at every level hes been at.

 

edit: I'm not trying to overate Yankee prospects, I just think it's insane that the Twins would accept a deal with the Sox without getting Ellsbury OR Bucholz.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I'm pretty sure the "Fielding Bible" was the only baseball stat-geek infosheet or whatever to rate him as a bad centerfielder. Others have him as an above average centerfielder.

 

 

Or the Fielding Bible uses a team of guys who watch every single baseball play from the entire year, chart each individual hit and note if a play was made and who was responsible. Then taking that entire bank of plays made, evaluate every single player in the league on every singly play relative to what their peers did on comparable balls in play.

 

It's not perfect yet, but it's by far the best system out there and is the only one that rates individual performance instead of using some sort of matrix or historical model.

[Brett Favre 0]

That sounds way too subjective.

[migoli 0]

That sounds way too subjective.

 

 

But it's the bible!

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

That sounds way too subjective.

 

Subjective? It's the farthest thing from subjective.

 

Did you not read that every single batted ball is charted and recorded into a computer system. For instance, a ball hit towards a third baseman might be recorded as something like "5 feet to the right of the bag, 6 feet above the ground travelling at x mph caught by 3B." That piece of data goes into the system.

 

Once the data is compiled, it can be used to award credits or demerits based on one's peers. If a ball hit to a fielder is typically fielded by 70% of one's peers and the player misses it, he gets a demerit of -.7 (1.00 - .30). In other words, on that play he was 70% worse than the typical outfielder in MLB. If he makes it, he gets a credit of +.3 (1.00 -.70). He was better than 30% of players on that batted ball.

 

Over the course of the year, all plays are added for a total score.

[Brett Favre 0]

That sounds way too subjective.

 

Subjective? It's the farthest thing from subjective.

 

Did you not read that every single batted ball is charted and recorded into a computer system. For instance, a ball hit towards a third baseman might be recorded as something like "5 feet to the right of the bag, 6 feet above the ground travelling at x mph caught by 3B." That piece of data goes into the system.

 

Once the data is compiled, it can be used to award credits or demerits based on one's peers. If a ball hit to a fielder is typically fielded by 70% of one's peers and the player misses it, he gets a demerit of -.7 (1.00 - .30). In other words, on that play he was 70% worse than the typical outfielder in MLB. If he makes it, he gets a credit of +.3 (1.00 -.70). He was better than 30% of players on that batter ball.

 

Over the course of the year, all plays are added for a total score.

 

No.

 

Anyway, field position, covering the bag, letting it drop to prevent it from getting past you (maybe not taking a risk), and throwing arm, accuracy, how quick they get rid of the ball should also be taken into consideration. What if some guy has a pussy arm but gets rid of the ball quickly, will that be taken into effect? Some guy might be expecting a bunt and gets a line drive right past him. A lot can mess up the system. Not saying it isn't reliable, but it doesn't seem full proof.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Anyway, field position, covering the bag, letting it drop to prevent it from getting past you (maybe not taking a risk), and throwing arm, accuracy, how quick they get rid of the ball should also be taken into consideration. What if some guy has a pussy arm but gets rid of the ball quickly, will that be taken into effect? Some guy might be expecting a bunt and gets a line drive right past him. A lot can mess up the system. Not saying it isn't reliable, but it doesn't seem full proof.

 

It's definitely not fool proof, but it's a step in the right direction. It lacks park adjustments. It measures in terms of percentages instead of runs. It has nothing in terms of win probability. Flaws are there indeed, but measuring every play and using that to evaluate a fielder is a breakthrough that stats guys have been waiting to have for years.

 

I obviously don't have access to any of their proprietary information regarding how they collect or interpret the data, but I would think that all the things mentioned in your post would be recorded. The FB measures outcomes... it wouldn't matter if you got there by positioning, accuracy or arm strength. Did you or did you not make the play? What did other players in the league at your position do with the exact same batted ball in the same situation? How do you compare to your peers at fielding this play?

 

The thing that I find intriguing about there info is that it seems to match the player's reputations well and compares favorably with THT's RZR/OOZ numbers. It passes the sniff test. It's not like BP's defensive numbers, which never seem to make a lick of sense.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Tampa Bay Rays sign Troy Percival to a two-year, $8 million deal. Incentives could push it to $10 million. The Yankees were offering more money, but the Rays are giving him the opportunity to close.

[Guest NYankees]

Wow, he is one brain dead fucking moron. He could have pitched on a competitive team or pitched for a last place team that is going to be out of it come May.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Wow, he is one brain dead fucking moron. He could have pitched on a competitive team or pitched for a last place team that is going to be out of it come May.

 

 

Are we talking about the same Devil Rays? They are going to be much closer to third than last in that division. Is it better to be buried in the bullpen of a big market team, or have a chance to star on one of the most exciting young teams in baseball? I don't know how you can label someone braindead for taking less money for a job that he found more attractive. They don't all have to chase the money, you know.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

The Rays will contend for the division title by 2010, mark it down. I seriously think they sniff .500 this year.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

Um, dudes?

 

This is smart for Percival.

 

He gets to close for a young team that is rapidly improving.

 

And if they are totally out of the hunt, they will trade him to a guaranteed contender at the deadline, thereby improving their team as well.

 

The alternative is that Percival sits around and tries to figure out in November or December who will be a contender next September and October, and if he screws up, he might be stuck on that team for the duration of the contract. If the team is one that's expected to be in contention now, they may be less likely to deal players at the deadline; instead they might be looking to add guys either to make one final push or to get ready for next year.

 

Percival and the Rays both made a smart decision here.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

We seriously need a non-Yanks, non-Sox fan with understanding of the minor league talent (paging Al Keiper) to weigh in on these respective players. I tried to bring in outside analysis from Kevin Goldstein, but that was shunned.

 

I really feel like the Yanks guys are overrating their talent. Hughes and Chamberlain are flat out monsters. I understand that. But everyone else is just sort of there, each with their own upside and potential faults. They are comparable to talents from many other teams. Just because Cashman likes to lump Kennedy in as the big 3 doesn't make it so.

 

I really like Kennedy, to be honest. He struck out more than a batter an inning last year, only gave up seven home runs. I saw him personally pitch for Trenton in Reading and he was impressive. One thing I never see mentioned, he has great hair.

 

Melky Cabrera has a solid understanding of the strike zone, but lacks power. He is really stretched in center field so his hitting has to improve remarkably for him to be an asset in the future.

 

Jose Tabata again, good hitting talent. Very young for his level. Again he needs to develop some power yet, as he is already moved to right field. The big problem there is that he is so far from the Majors that a lot can happen.

 

Allan Horne again, good peripherals. His scouting reports indicate he'd be better served as a relief pitcher. He only has two good pitches.

 

What concerns me with the Yankees' pitchers is that they all have little pro experience. It is possible that their numbers will fall as hitters learn to adjust to their raw stuff.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

We seriously need a non-Yanks, non-Sox fan with understanding of the minor league talent (paging Al Keiper) to weigh in on these respective players. I tried to bring in outside analysis from Kevin Goldstein, but that was shunned.

 

I really feel like the Yanks guys are overrating their talent. Hughes and Chamberlain are flat out monsters. I understand that. But everyone else is just sort of there, each with their own upside and potential faults. They are comparable to talents from many other teams. Just because Cashman likes to lump Kennedy in as the big 3 doesn't make it so.

 

I really like Kennedy, to be honest. He struck out more than a batter an inning last year, only gave up seven home runs. I saw him personally pitch for Trenton in Reading and he was impressive. One thing I never see mentioned, he has great hair.

 

Melky Cabrera has a solid understanding of the strike zone, but lacks power. He is really stretched in center field so his hitting has to improve remarkably for him to be an asset in the future.

 

Jose Tabata again, good hitting talent. Very young for his level. Again he needs to develop some power yet, as he is already moved to right field. The big problem there is that he is so far from the Majors that a lot can happen.

 

Allan Horne again, good peripherals. His scouting reports indicate he'd be better served as a relief pitcher. He only has two good pitches.

 

What concerns me with the Yankees' pitchers is that they all have little pro experience. It is possible that their numbers will fall as hitters learn to adjust to their raw stuff.

 

And your thoughts on Crisp, Lowrie, Masterson and Lester?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

And your thoughts on Crisp, Lowrie, Masterson and Lester?

 

Masterson I really don't know much about, other than that his stats indicate a groundball pitcher with control. Kind of a better version of Kyle Kendrick.

 

Lowrie I like a lot. Good fielder, excellent plate discipline, makes contact, has pop.

 

Lester is the subject of debate within smarter circles. Without seeing him myself I really can't add to the discussion. That he can handle himself in the bigs at a young age is a good sign.

 

Coco Crisp isn't really all that good a player. He had two good years in Cleveland. He hasn't been good at the plate the last two years, and he really wasn't all that heralded in the minors. Good range but for most teams he's better served as a fourth outfielder.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Coco Crisp isn't really all that good a player. He had two good years in Cleveland. He hasn't been good at the plate the last two years, and he really wasn't all that heralded in the minors. Good range but for most teams he's better served as a fourth outfielder.

 

That seems to be a bit harsh on Crisp. He's a little below average with the bat, but he has hit well in the past. It could be the wrist and finger injuries that have caused him to lose something at the plate. At 28, he may yet bounce back.

 

But even if he doesn't, his glove is so valuable that he should be able to stick for most teams as a starting centerfielder. He had a WARP3 of 8.4 last year, so depending on how well you rate his defense, he's somewhere between good and very good when considering all facets of the game. Good baserunner, too.

 

I can buy Melky being more valuable long-term because he's young, cheap, has stuck at the majors and could develop into a serviceable player. But I don't think he's at Crisp's level and I don't think he will be either. I'm not even sold that Ellsbury will be much better than Crisp. Just an opinion, though.

[Smartly Pretty 0]

Cheech, you've gotta stop with the +/- stat. It's a good idea in theory, but it's way too subjective.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Cheech, you've gotta stop with the +/- stat. It's a good idea in theory, but it's way too subjective.

 

Please explain to me why it's subjective and then reference a better way to evaluate fielders, including any stats that are more accurate in assessing defensive ability. I'd really like to know.