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Craig Th

Summer Box Office Predictions

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I know this is a few weeks late, but the "summer box office season" has technically just begun. Yes, I know they call early May movies summer movies, but the summer season is Memorial Day thru Labor Day. But I am going to include early May movies in this.

 

Here are the "big" movies coming out this summer (including ones that already came out):

 

May

IronMan

Speed Racer

What Happens in Vegas

The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

Sex and the City

 

June

Kung Fu Panda

You Don't Mess With The Zohan

The Incredible Hulk

The Happening

Get Smart

The Love Guru

Wanted

Wall-E

 

July

Hancock

Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D

Hell Boy II: The Golden Army

The Dark Knight

Mamma Mia!

X-Files: I Want to Believe

Step Brothers

 

August

The Rocker

The Mummy: The Tomb of the Dragon Emperor

Pineapple Express

The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2

Tropic Thunder

Star Wars: The Clone Wars

House Bunny

Vicky Cristina Barcelona

 

 

Now there could be a lot of them I missed, but I was just going through Entertainment Weekly's Summer Preview issue. If you think something should be added, just let me know.

 

Top 10 Predictions

1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $350

2. Hancock - $325

3. Wall-E - $300

4. Ironman - $280

5. The Dark Knight - $250

6. Kung Fu Panda - $240

7. The Incredible Hulk - $220

8. Sex and the City - $200

9. The Mummy: The Tomb of the Dragon Emperor - $175

10. X-Files: I Want to Believe - $170

 

Other:

Get Smart - $150

The Love Guru - $140 (though it could do much more if it's any good)

The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - $ 140 (I would have had this going $200+ before hand, but I can't say that now)

Pineapple Express - $125

You Don't Mess With The Zohan - $120

 

I'm crossed on Wanted. I could see it doing very well, around $180, but I can also see it flopping. Journey to the Center of the Earth will flop. Sisterhood 2 will get about $75. Tropic Thunder might get $100. And if the Happening is more like Sixth Sense and less like Lady in the Water, it will do over $190.

 

I think these numbers are a little high, but I have a feeling people will be looking for some entertainment after this past years strike.

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I don't see Hancock doing anything like that sort of business. It might do about what I Am Legend did with Smith but is a movie about a drunken ne'er do well superhero going to draw more money than movies about actual superheroes? Wall-E might do Ratatouille type business but I can't see it hitting 300 million. It looks like an animated Short Circuit, haha.

 

I actually think that Mummy movie might surprise some people, the trailer was pretty good and increased my interest. As far as a potential bomb or flop, gotta say Sex in the City. It's getting lukewarm initial reviews and I don't think it was as popular as some magazines like Ent. Weekly seem to think it is (EW had a whole issue about the movie).

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Death race got moved up to August from September as well because the test audiences went crazy for it, which is a good sign, but Statham's box office record is very hit or miss and there seems to be a backlash against remakes nowadays.

 

I've heard The Happening is really crap. And the trailer doesn't make me that desperate to see it either. I'd be surprised if it managed to make $100 million.

 

 

I can't see the love guru doing that well, since, despite what many seem to think, Jessica Alba isn't a box office draw. Neither is Mike Myers, apart from when he's doing Austin powers or voice overs for Shrek (and shrek would have been successful without him). I have to agree with the people saying sex and the city won't be a huge hit either. I don't remember that television show being as huge as people act like it was. And I know the x files actually was quite big for a while, but a lot of people went off it in the last few years it was on. I can see tropic thunder doing very well although it looks like it cost a lot, so it might have to do amazing business to just break even.

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Hancock will end up #1

 

Will Smith + July 4th Weekend + Super Hero Movie + Big Promotion Budget = $$$$$. It has 16 days to itself basically (Meet Dave? Hellboy 2? Journey to the Center of the Earth 3d?) before Dark Knight opens but it will do huge enough business over the holiday weekend to make it #1. Those are basically the 2 biggest movies opening in July as well.

 

No way X Files: I Want to Believe ends up at $170 million. I figure around $100 million because it will probably open at about 40-50 and drop off like a rock off a cliff.

 

I'll give you the big bomb as well: The Incredible Hulk (People remember the last one whether or not its at all even close to this one at all and its up vs an M Night movie that will get more casual interest than the die hard comic book crowd that will still (?) go to see Hulk)

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