Ask Al, Part IV

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

These threads are generally popular, MLB talk is slow and since I've gotten three PM baseball questions this week, let's run with it. Ask me your baseball questions, or if you want to tackle boxing history as a change of pace we'll do that.

[Dandy 0]

Do you think my beloved Reds will add anyone else worthwhile this offseason?

[Guest]

If you were to rank all the shortstops in the National League, whereabouts would Rafael Furcal figure into such a list?

[Dandy 0]

Here's a question that spawned off a conversation a coworker and I were having:

 

What position player and pitcher in each league provides the best bang for the buck?

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

-Which professional baseball team is set up best for the next five years, given their talent and the major and minor league levels?

 

-How do you feel about the closing of Hawaiin Winter league?

 

-Have you made up your list of top ten prospects?

 

-Are you using UZR much yet? How close do you think we are to having a meaningful defensive statistic that measures value?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Cheech's questions are the most interesting right off the bat, but I'll get to all of them.

 

-Which professional baseball team is set up best for the next five years, given their talent and the major and minor league levels?

 

-How do you feel about the closing of Hawaiin Winter league?

 

-Have you made up your list of top ten prospects?

 

-Are you using UZR much yet? How close do you think we are to having a meaningful defensive statistic that measures value?

1. It almost has to be the Tampa Bay Rays. They won 97 games, their team is incredibly young and they STILL have good players coming up the pipeline. The Red Sox look good but they will need to develop superstars. It will not be long before they need to replace David Ortiz. If I were to pick a National League team, that's a harder decision. The Cardinals look surprisingly good with a future lineup of Pujols, Wallace and Colby Rasmus.

 

2. Teams will always find a place for their prospects. I think it is most disappointing for Hawaiian baseball fans.

 

3. I have not. I've done a Phillies top 30 though. I find it difficult to evaluate minor league prospects as a whole because I'm disconnected from most of the West Coast teams. I think Matt Wieters is absolutely the #1 prospect in baseball.

 

4. I have never used UZR. I glance at John Dewan's +/- system, but I am wary yet. It seems to me that a new defensive system pops up every five years or so. Sabermetrically inclined fans go ga-ga over it, let it override their entire scouting system and it ends up dismissed when the new defensive system disproves or replaces it. Lately I think we've found that defense carries more value than we previously anticipated. I haven't seen a study, but I suspect bad defense leads to poor pitching peripherals across the board. Either pitchers trying too hard to overcome their defense's shortcomings, or simply added fatigue.

 

I do not think you can develop a perfect system. The best thing to do is take several systems into account, and listen to scouting reports. A good scout is the best way to evaluate defense, provided he knows what he's looking for. There is too much statistical noise involved in a defensive play to attach a number to it.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

If you were to rank all the shortstops in the National League, whereabouts would Rafael Furcal figure into such a list?

My best guess.

 

1. Hanley Ramirez

2. Jose Reyes

3. J.J. Hardy

4. Jimmy Rollins

5. Stephen Drew

6. Troy Tulowitzki

7. Yunel Escobar

8. Rafael Furcal

9. Miguel Tejada

10. Edgar Renteria

11. Christian Guzman

12. Khalil Greene

13. Ryan Theriot

14. Alex Gonzalez

15. Jack Wilson

16. Luis Rodriguez

 

Furcal missed most of this season and had an awful 2007. 2005-06 established an OPS+ level of around 104 or so. Escobar's career mark is 109. And did anyone notice that Stephen Drew led NL shortstops in extra base hits this season?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Do you think my beloved Reds will add anyone else worthwhile this offseason?

 

I do. There are a ton of corner outfielders on the market right now. One of them is certain to land in Cincinnati. Plus, Cincinnati fans can enjoy the continued development of Jay Bruce and Joey Votto.

 

What position player and pitcher in each league provides the best bang for the buck?

 

Given the financial structure of the game they would have to be players in the first three years of their careers. Tim Lincecum and Josh Hamilton will make near the league minimum next season.

[YourKock'sReallyGreat 0]

I am shocked that you think Jose Reyes is better than Jimmy Rollins. Do you think Mussina is a Hall of Famer? Who was a better pitcher, Mussina or Glavine?

[HarleyQuinn 0]

- What's the reasoning behind the myriad of boxing titles out there? Is it largely due to the different weight classes/boxing commissions?

 

- Will there ever be a singular governing boxing body to decide who's champion of say 3-4 titles maximum?

[Guest Vitamin X]

How fucked are the Rockies now that Holliday's gone, Helton ain't what he used to be (ain't what he used to be), and they still have no pitching help?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I am shocked that you think Jose Reyes is better than Jimmy Rollins. Do you think Mussina is a Hall of Famer? Who was a better pitcher, Mussina or Glavine?

I think Mussina is absolutely a Hall of Famer. That combination of wins and winning percentage is so good that no comparable player whatsoever has been left out. I think Glavine was a better pitcher. If you go by peak, Glavine won 20+ games five times compared to once for Mussina (though Mussina got hosed by the work stoppage). Glavine won two Cy Youngs, none for Mussina. Career wise, Glavine has pitched 800+ more innings than Mussina and he's still going.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

What's the reasoning behind the myriad of boxing titles out there? Is it largely due to the different weight classes/boxing commissions?

 

Weight classes have expanded from eight to seventeen. I think that is reasonable. It is the sheer number of boxing organizations that create the ridiculous amount of championships. That stems from a lack of overriding authority in boxing. Each of these groups have their own vested interest, there is nothing to bring them in line and there is no incentive.

 

Boxing promoters benefit from a large number of titles. In pro wrestling, the NWA attempted for a time to run simultaneous World champions, with Lou Thesz and Eduoard Carpentier each claiming a lineage to the crown. Two champions, twice the gate. Logical enough. And it is not hurting their bottom lines at all. No one turns away from a De La Hoya/Paciaqua fight because it's not for the "undisputed" championship, do they?

 

Will there ever be a singular governing boxing body to decide who's champion of say 3-4 titles maximum?

 

The only way it happens is if there is a dominant, charismatic heavyweight ala Tyson and the organizations refuse to recognize him in the face of all logic. We're stuck with the current system, and the best thing for fans to do is refuse to recognize ANY of the established boxing championships.

[Fökai 0]

1. Analyze the Peavy situation. Who cracks first, Towers with his demands, or a GM who would overpay for Peavy?

 

2. Atlanta was willing to give Furcal 3 yrs @ $30 mil before he signed with the Dodgers. Is this simply a case of the Braves not having any clue what to do with their payroll now that Burnett and (supposedly) Peavy are off the market?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

How fucked are the Rockies now that Holliday's gone, Helton ain't what he used to be (ain't what he used to be), and they still have no pitching help?

The Rockies can hope for a full season of Ian Stewart and a healthy season of Troy Tulowitzki. They have Greg Reynolds developing and if Franklin Morales improves, that pitching staff looks a lot better. I think their gains far surpass the loss of a single player. One player is rarely the difference. This team can easily contend for the NL West crown.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

1. Analyze the Peavy situation. Who cracks first, Towers with his demands, or a GM who would overpay for Peavy?

 

I think Towers. The problem is that any of the other 29 teams could easily pass. Towers could well find himself forced to trade Peavy due to his owner's payroll demands.

 

Atlanta was willing to give Furcal 3 yrs @ $30 mil before he signed with the Dodgers. Is this simply a case of the Braves not having any clue what to do with their payroll now that Burnett and (supposedly) Peavy are off the market?

 

We can't say for certain what the Braves plans were. They may have had a plan in place to trade Escobar or Kelly Johnson. Without a trade, Johnson would slide to left field and improve an outfield rotation that was really a problem in 2008. I think if you can add a good player and make it work, pull the trigger.

[Detox 0]

Of the Texas Rangers three remaining young catchers in Max Ramirez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Taylor Teagarden. Who do you believe is the most valuable suitor in regards to a trade, I am a Rangers fan if that means anything.

[YourKock'sReallyGreat 0]

I am shocked that you think Jose Reyes is better than Jimmy Rollins. Do you think Mussina is a Hall of Famer? Who was a better pitcher, Mussina or Glavine?

I think Mussina is absolutely a Hall of Famer. That combination of wins and winning percentage is so good that no comparable player whatsoever has been left out. I think Glavine was a better pitcher. If you go by peak, Glavine won 20+ games five times compared to once for Mussina (though Mussina got hosed by the work stoppage). Glavine won two Cy Youngs, none for Mussina. Career wise, Glavine has pitched 800+ more innings than Mussina and he's still going.

 

 

I am glad you answered. Mussina pitched his whole entire career in the dh steroid freak AL East. Glavine got to pitch in the NL East his whole career. Mussina has 200 more k's in almost 900 less innings. Mussina has an era plus of 123 to Glavines 118. Mussina has a better whip of 1.192 to Glavines 1.314. Mussina has 50 percent of Glavines walks and pitched 1/4 less innings. Mussina pitched in the wrong division and at the wrong time and still put up better #'s. He also spent his prime years pitching in the shadow of Roger the Cheat and one of the top 5 starting pitchers all of time in Pedro. You are right about him getting hosed by the work stoppage. He had 16 wins in 1994 and missed 9-10 starts. He had 19 wins in 1995 and missed 4-5 starts due to the strike.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Of the Texas Rangers three remaining young catchers in Max Ramirez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Taylor Teagarden. Who do you believe is the most valuable suitor in regards to a trade, I am a Rangers fan if that means anything.

What's tricky is that they will want their most valuable catcher to remain their starter. So really they're looking for their second best catcher to become a trade target. I like Saltalamacchia since he has shown he can produce in the major leagues. And he's the youngest of the three players, which is pretty special. I like Ramirez second, Teagarden third. And since Teagarden had that big explosion in a short MLB trial, some team might overrate him in a trade.

[YourKock'sReallyGreat 0]

What kind of future do you think Josh Hamilton has and the team that he plays for? I heard that he travels with a bodyguard who supervises him 24/7 and doesn't travel with the team. It seems like that he would never get a huge or big contract and never play in a big city. This is due to him potentially falling off the handle at any second.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Mussina pitched his whole entire career in the dh steroid freak AL East. Glavine got to pitch in the NL East his whole career. Mussina has 200 more k's in almost 900 less innings. Mussina has an era plus of 123 to Glavines 118. Mussina has a better whip of 1.192 to Glavines 1.314. Mussina has 50 percent of Glavines walks and pitched 1/4 less innings. Mussina pitched in the wrong division and at the wrong time and still put up better #'s. He also spent his prime years pitching in the shadow of Roger the Cheat and one of the top 5 starting pitchers all of time in Pedro. You are right about him getting hosed by the work stoppage. He had 16 wins in 1994 and missed 9-10 starts. He had 19 wins in 1995 and missed 4-5 starts due to the strike.

 

Let's take a few of these issues out of the equation. Clemens, Pedro Martinez, the work stoppage. In terms of career value, the strike effected both pitchers equally, particularly if we're talking career value. And working in anyone's shadow shouldn't matter. They pitched in the same era and we're not comparing players among divisions. And heck, Glavine pitched with Maddux all those years anyway.

 

ERA+. Let's isolate those numbers to age 22-39 seasons, which covers the entirety of Mussina's career. Mussina is still 122 (I don't know why that came out different), Glavine's is 121. That's a negligible difference. Glavine declines from pitching earlier and later in his career than did Mussina. He shouldn't get penalized for that. Glavine pitched over 300 more innings than Mussina in those seasons alone, not counting his extended career. That workrate counts for a lot, that is quality innings not given to a relief pitcher of lesser ability.

 

Divisions. First off, everyone in baseball took steroids. The most dubious single team was the '93 Phillies, Glavine's opponents. Second, Mussina did NOT have to pitch against the Yankees for the last eight years of his career. Most of that time he had many starts against the Devil Rays, Orioles and Blue Jays. That's not exactly a competitive nightmare. I know the quality of leagues has been an issue but it's not THAT big, and it hasn't existed since the early '90s. I don't think it's a serious factor.

 

Both are all time greats, but given the extra workload I think Glavine was a better pitcher.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

What kind of future do you think Josh Hamilton has and the team that he plays for? I heard that he travels with a bodyguard who supervises him 24/7 and doesn't travel with the team. It seems like that he would never get a huge or big contract and never play in a big city. This is due to him potentially falling off the handle at any second.

As long as he stays on the wagon he should have a highly productive career. He will get his big money as soon as he hits arbitration. If he stays clean and productive until he reaches free agency, that's six years. At that point, I don't think a team would hesitate on a big contract.

[YourKock'sReallyGreat 0]

What kind of future do you think Josh Hamilton has and the team that he plays for? I heard that he travels with a bodyguard who supervises him 24/7 and doesn't travel with the team. It seems like that he would never get a huge or big contract and never play in a big city. This is due to him potentially falling off the handle at any second.

As long as he stays on the wagon he should have a highly productive career. He will get his big money as soon as he hits arbitration. If he stays clean and productive until he reaches free agency, that's six years. At that point, I don't think a team would hesitate on a big contract.

 

 

If is a big word in this situation. I am not knocking Josh, I hope he stays clean for the rest of his life. It's just that he is always going to be one second away from relapsing. I just cant picture a team willing to invest tens of millions into him.

[MillenniumMan831 0]

Will Travis Hafner ever be a premiere DH again? Are his problems more physical than mental?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Will Travis Hafner ever be a premiere DH again? Are his problems more physical than mental?

He should recover a bit this year, but I'd be very surprised if he again reaches his 2004-06 peak.

[Guest Agent of Oblivion]

What's your favorite ballpark?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

What's your favorite ballpark?

There is something authentic about Oriole Park that Philadelphia just can't copy. Citizens Bank Park is nice, but a bit theme park-ish. Those are the only two standing MLB parks I've been to. I was not impressed at all with Yankee Stadium. When it comes to a televised game I think the aesthetics of Wrigley Field and Kaufmann Stadium are the best. I wish park designers would learn that there is nothing at all wrong with a symmetrical ballpark.

 

If I throw in minor league parks, I'd take a game at Coca-Cola Park anyday. I great combination of sightlines and convenience. You're close to the action no matter where you sit. Bowman Field in Williamsport is also a great experience because it's one of the last old minor league parks left.

[Guest Agent of Oblivion]

Thought of a couple more.

 

1. As a boxing fan, how do you feel about MMA?

 

2. Will there ever be a salary cap in the major leagues? What changes would take place, were one to be implemented?

 

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

As a boxing fan, how do you feel about MMA?

 

I was interested in the early days when they had guys like Tank Abbott, Oleg Taktarov, etc. Now with different weight classes, companies, etc., most of the guys are just names. I think it's a fine sport, fun to watch at times, but I haven't gotten into it.

 

Will there ever be a salary cap in the major leagues? What changes would take place, were one to be implemented?

 

I doubt it, especially during the next 30 years or so. I think the big clubs would just take other means of spending money, like pouring it into the amateur draft or international scouting. Complaints about the Yankees buying championships dates well back before free agency.

[Chazz 0]

Do you think my pitiful Pittsburgh Pirates will be winning again by 2010-2011?