A mini-MLB draft is in the works. Instead of the whole of MLB history for this one, we are going to focus solely on the New York Yankees. Why the Yankees, a team I despise? They simply have the talent necessary to sustain this kind of idea. I'd run Phillies, but who is going to get excited over Fred Luderus?
We have five entrants. Myself, Canadian Chris, Smues, Brooklyn Zoo and 161st and River. One more person can join in if they are interested.
Here are the basics.
1. 21 man rosters (eight position players and a DH, three reserves, five starters, three relievers, and a manager)
2. You draft a player's career ONLY as a Yankee. If you draft Randy Johnson, you're getting 34 career victories.
3. A player may only be chosen either as a manager or player. A player may not be chosen twice for each role. Two exceptions, Hal Chase and Clark Griffith may be player-managers.
4. All home parks are assumed to be Yankee Stadium.
Results
Round One
CC: Babe Ruth
Al: Mickey Mantle
Bored: Lou Gehrig
BZ: Joe Dimaggio
Smues: Alex Rodriguez
161st: Bernie Williams
Round Two
161st: Whitey Ford
Smues: Yogi Berra
BZ: Mariano Rivera
Bored: Derek Jeter
Al: Charlie Keller
CC: Bill Dickey
Round Three
CC: Tony Lazzeri
Al: Lefty Gomez
Bored: Red Ruffing
BZ: Don Mattingly
Smues: Spud Chandler
161st:Ron Guidry
Round Four
161st: Jorge Posada
Smues: Jason Giambi
BZ: Thurman Munson
Bored: Reggie Jackson
Al: Joe Gordon
CC: Andy Pettitte
Round Five
CC: Goose Gossage
Al: Allie Reynolds
Bored: Rickey Henderson
BZ: Dave Winfield
Smues: Roger Clemens
161st: Roger Maris
Round Six
161st: Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez
Smues: Mike Mussina
BZ: Earle Combs
Bored: Ed Lopat
Al: Phil Rizzuto
CC: Paul O'Neill
Round Seven
CC: Bobby Murcer
Al: Elston Howard
Bored: Graig Nettles
BZ: Tommy Henrich
Smues: Casey Stengel (manager)
161st: Dave Righetti
Round Eight
161st: Willie Randolph
Smues: Sparky Lyle
BZ: Wade Boggs
Bored: John Wetteland
Al: Herb Pennock
CC: Bob Shawkey
Round Nine
CC: Jimmy Key
Al: Bill Skowron
Bored: Hideki Matsui
BZ: Joe McCarthy (manager)
Smues: Mel Stottlemyre
161st: Waite Hoyt
Round Ten
161st: Joe Torre (manager)
Smues: Tino Martinez
BZ: Catfish Hunter
Bored: Tommy John
Al: Gil McDougald
CC: David Cone
Round Eleven
CC: Home Run Baker
Al: Roy White
Bored: Alfonso Soriano
BZ: Vic Raschi
Smues: Robinson Cano
161st: Lou Piniella
Round Twelve
161st: Hank Bauer
Smues: Frankie Crosetti
BZ: Tony Kubek
Bored: David Wells
Al: Carl Mays
CC: Chien-Ming Wang
Round Thirteen
CC: Mike Stanton
Al: Johnny Murphy
Bored: Gary Sheffield
BZ: Bobby Richardson
Smues: David Justice
161st: Clete Boyer
Round Fourteen
161st: Jeff Nelson
Smues: Gene Woodling
BZ: George Selkirk
Bored: Steve Howe
Al: Miller Huggins (manager)
CC: Don Baylor
Round Fifteen
CC: Kid Elberfeld
Al: Bob Meusel
Bored: Billy Martin (manager)
BZ: Al Downing
Smues: Ben Chapman
161st: Wally Pipp
Round Sixteen
161st: Jack Chesbro
Smues: Mickey Rivers
BZ: Bob Turley
Bored: Butch Wynegar
Al: Steve Hamilton
CC: Nick Etten
Round Seventeen
CC: Jerry Mumphrey
Al: Urban Shocker
Bored: Ron Davis
BZ: Fritz Peterson
Smues: Hal Chase
161st: Bob Wickman
Round Eighteen
161st: Roberto Kelly
Smues: Clark Griffith
BZ: Joe Page
Bored: Ralph Terry
Al: Ryne Duren
CC: Lindy McDaniel
Round Nineteen
CC: Johnny Blanchard
Al: Mike Stanley
Bored:Roy Smalley
BZ: Red Rolfe
Smues: Joba Chamberlain
161st: Ron Blomberg
Round Twenty
161st: Tom Tresh (or Shane Spencer)
Smues: Wally Schang
BZ: Joe Girardi
Bored: Ron Hassey
Al: Snuffy Stirnweiss
CC: Randy Velarde
Round Twenty-One
CC: Ralph Houk (manager)
Al: Birdie Cree
Bored: Tim Raines
BZ: Ramiro Mendoza
Smues: Tom Gordon
161st: Rick Cerone
Round Twenty-Two (Relief Pitchers)
161st: Shane Spencer
Smues: Lee Guetterman
BZ: Dick Tidrow
Bored: Hal Reniff
Al: Steve Farr
CC: Jack Aker
A couple weeks ago six of us ran an All-Time Yankees draft. With six teams chosen, the time has come to create a competition. I entered all six teams into a baseball simulator. The games are yet to come. Before the festivities begin, I thought it would be helpful to lay out the specifics and ground rules of the tournament.
1. Each team will play ten games, two against each opponent (one home and one away).
2. The top three teams will advance to the playoffs. The team with the best record receives a bye.
3. In the case of a tie for a playoff berth (first or third place), a tiebreaker game (or games as necessary) will be held. Teams can not be eliminated in a tiebreak scenario, except via an on-field game. Seeding for those games will be decided by:
Head to Head record among tied teams
Overall Run Differential
Random Draw
4. Playoff rounds are five games apiece. Home field format is 2-2-1.
5. Each team will use a five man rotation, ensuring two starts per pitcher.
6. Each team will use their reserve catcher in the 5th and 9th games, their reserve infielder in their 6th game and their reserve outfielder in their 7th game.
7. The extra reserves and relievers (those not drafted) will only be used in an extra inning game, or if a team has exhausted their bullpen.
See the comments for game details.
Day Ten
Yankees 7
Bridegrooms 5
Giants 9
Dodgers 2
Highlanders 12
Gothams 2
Day Nine
Bridegrooms 3
Yankees 10
Dodgers 4
Giants 10
Gothams 2
Highlanders 5
Day Eight
Highlanders 4
Bridegrooms 5
11 Innings
Gothams 4
Dodgers 5
Yankees 1
Giants 3
Day Seven
Bridegrooms 4
Highlanders 6
Dodgers 8
Gothams 2
Giants 8
Yankees 10
Day Six
Gothams 7
Bridegrooms 4
Yankees 5
Dodgers 3
Highlanders 7
Giants 11
Day Five
Bridegrooms 10
Gothams 2
Dodgers 18
Yankees 2
Giants 4
Highlanders 8
Day Four
Giants 2
Bridegrooms 4
Highlanders 3
Dodgers 12
Yankees 5
Gothams 4
Day Three
Bridegrooms 3
Giants 4
Dodgers 6
Highlanders 5
Gothams 7
Yankees 8
10 Innings
Day Two
Dodgers 3
Bridegrooms 6
Gothams 3
Giants 4
Yankees 4
Highlanders 6
Day One
Bridegrooms 4
Dodgers 11
Giants 2
Gothams 6
Highlanders 7
Yankees 0
About a month into the season, it's a good time to see how the kids are doing in the minors. Rankings are the preseason rankings courtesy of Baseball America. The letters in parenthesis refer to the league. They run in the following order, from highest to lowest.
AAA: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, International League
AA: Reading, Eastern League
A+: Clearwater, Florida State League
A: Lakewood, South Atlantic League
Short Season A: Batavia, New York-Penn League
Rookie: GCL Phillies, Gulf Coast League
1. Cole Hamels, SP (Age 22)
1-1, 1.77 ERA, 20 1/3 IP, 16 H, 4 ER, 0 HR, 9 BB, 29 Ks (A+)
1-0, 0.00 ERA, 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 14 Ks (AAA)
Hamels earned a call to Scranton after a good start in Clearwater, and absolutely steamrolled the Norfolk Tide in his first start. As long as he stays healthy, he is a premium talent.
2. Gio Gonzalez, SP (Age 20)
1-1, 1.48 ERA, 24 1/3 IP, 15 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 8 BB, 28 Ks (AA)
Gonzalez is a lefty on the short side of 6' tall. The usual concerns from scouts are the only mark on his report. His first four starts in AA are about as good as you can get from a 20 year old pitcher. He's bound to have a rough start here and there to drive back his rate stats, but early returns are outstanding. Gonzalez is close to breaking onto Top 50 prospect lists.
3. Greg Golson, OF (Age 20)
.159/.209/.206, 1 HR, 2 RBIs, 1 SB (A)
63 at bats, one extra base hit. As Baseball Prospectus noted, "it would be nice if his performance bore the slightest resemblance to what the tools watchers say he can do." Maybe Golson has upside. But there is no way he deserves the number three ranking in the organization, no matter how thin it is. It is still early, but if I do not see results at the end of the year, I am writing him off.
4. Michael Bourn, OF (Age 23)
.230/.269/.324, 0 HR, 4 RBIs, 9 SB (AA)
Bourn's batting line includes three triples, and he has yet to be caught stealing. Bourn is an extremely fast runner with excellent plate discipline. The problem is that he has very little power, and pitchers are not apt to pitch around him when he will not drive the ball. That negates his ability to get on base. Bourn posted an acceptable .348 OBP last season, but that will not propel him to star status. Bourn is good defensively with a great arm, so at minimum he can provide a team with a 5th outfielder.
5. Scott Mathieson, SP (Age 22)
1-1, 4.26 ERA, 25 1/3 IP, 24 H, 12 ER, 2 HR, 6 BB, 30 Ks (AA)
That K:BB ratio is extremely good, and he does not allow an unusual number of home runs. Allowing twelve runs is more bad luck than anything else. Mathieson's carried this kind of stat line his entire career however. There are several who think Mathieson's future is as a power closer. Since he carried his ratios to AA, he at least has a future somewhere.
6. Daniel Haigwood, SP (Age 22)
1-1, 2.61 ERA, 20 2/3 IP, 17 H, 6 ER, 0 HR, 17 BB, 17 Ks (AA)
Seventeen walks?! Ouch. Haigwood's other numbers are very good, but that is a serious red flag. It could be a sample size issue, or an indication of something lurking underneath. We need more data here.
7. Welinson Baez, 3B/SS (Age 21)
.250/.241/.393, 1 HR, 8 RBIs, 0 SB (A)
Yes, Baez's on base percentage is lower than his batting average. He has not drawn a walk in 56 at bats, while striking out 16 times. Baez has tools and had a great year last year after three shots at the Gulf Coast League. I am pessimistic at this point. Baez was a league repeater and lacks plate discipline. He's still got time though.
8. Mike Costanzo, 3B (Age 22)
.263/.310/.450, 3 HRs, 12 RBIs, 0 SB (A+)
Costanzo's numbers are slightly low, but given that it is less than a month in and the Florida State League is a tough hitters' league, it is not a serious problem just yet. Costanzo led Division I baseball in walks last year, so I do not think his plate discipline is an issue.
9. Brad Harman, SS/2B (Age 20)
.217/.286/.261, 0 HRs, 6 RBIs, 2 SBs (A+)
Harman had a great series in the World Baseball Classic for Australia, but has struggled mightily in the Florida State League. The walks are there, I think this is just a case of a slow start.
10. Jason Jaramillo, C (Age 23)
.250/.328/.385, 0 HR, 5 RBIs, 0 SB (AA)
The Phillies' Great White Hope behind the plate. The Phils' skipped a level for Jaramillo, and he's held his own so far in Reading. Considering his primary asset is his defense, this is certainly encouraging.
We've got a couple of Phillies' fans on this board. Instead of clogging the MLB thread in Sports, I figured I would post my thoughts here, and maybe we'll run with this throughout the offseason. What do the Phillies need to do to improve this offseason? I'll address the trouble spots.
1. Third Base
Abraham Nunez hit .211/.303/.273 this season in 322 at bats. That performance is a big reason why the Phils failed to reach the postseason. You can take that kind of performance from a slick fielding utility infielder, but it is unacceptable for a regular starter at any position. The problem the Phillies face is that the market is barren as far as infielders go this offseason. It looks like Aramis Ramirez will be available, but he will be expensive, he's streaky and his plate discipline is an issue. This is a place where the Phils might be well served to trade for a team's extra third baseman, such as Josh Fields (White Sox) or Mark Teahen (Royals).
2. Bullpen
Right now the Phillies' pen shapes up like this...
Closer: Tom Gordon
Setup Man: Geoff Geary
RHRP: Ryan Madson
LHRP: Matt Smith
The Phils have some options including Eude Brito, Clay Condrey and Brian Sanches. Brito's future in the majors is in the bullpen, and it is time to find out if he can play or not. Condrey's good as the last man in the bullpen who you can easily option back to AAA if you need the spot. Sanches had a great year in AAA, but I'm not certain that he is an MLB caliber reliever. Fabio Castro will probably end up in AA Reading for more seasoning. One option could be Yoel Hernandez, who has an excellent slider but missed most of the season due to injury.
There are several good options on the free agent market. David Riske has pitched seven seasons with a 123 ERA+ to show for it. Justin Speier has developed into one of the game's best middle relievers since he left Colorado three years ago. Chad Bradford's groundball tendencies would be a good fit in a hitters' haven like Citizens Bank Park. Boston reliever Keith Foulke also might be worth a flier. He had a poor year, but few free agents have his ceiling. Among the lefties, the top choices are Jamie Walker, Ray King and Steve Kline. Steve Kline is a very attractive choice. He's not only a gritty, dirtbag type of player, he's also a local product who hails from Sunbury, PA.
The Phils will be in good shape if they can sign one of those guys, and great shape if they get two.
3. Starting Pitching
So far the Phillies can count on Cole Hamels, Brett Myers and Jon Lieber to return next season. Jamie Moyer has a mutual option of that the Phillies should exercise their end. Gavin Floyd is a potential option, given that he is still only 23 years old and improving. In this market, you can't count on stardom. The only pitcher I would comfortably throw big money at is Jason Schmidt (or Mike Mussina, if the Yankees' decline his option). The best thing here is probably to find an innings eater who can keep the Phils in the game. Potential targets include Miguel Batista (useful due to his ability to convert to relief), Tomokazu Ohka, or Jeff Suppan.
4. Catching
There are no free agent catchers better than Carlos Ruiz, so Ruiz should be given every opportunity to win the starting job. Ruiz is a line drive hitter with an excellent arm behind the plate. Chris Coste is a capable backup who can also play the corners. Given Coste's versatility, it would be wise for the Phils to grab an extra backup. Gregg Zaun or Robert Fick would be good options here.
5. Right Field
Neither Aaron Rowand nor Shane Victorino hits quite well enough to play in a corner. It might be time for the Phils to finally indulge in Trot Nixon, settling him in a platoon with Jeff Conine (assuming he remains in Philly). As always, there are several outfield options for a team who can think creatively. Roward would be good trade bait to fill any of these five spots.
In any case, this should be an interesting offseason.
Over in the General Wrestling forum, there is a draft going on to select all-time rosters of wrestlers. I missed out on this, but it provides an opportunity to do a little list creation in my spare time. I created a list of my ideal top 64 picks. When selecting a wrestler, I feel you need to look for uncommon attributes, something to stand out from the crowd. Mid-carders are crucial to a good promotion, but you can find many, many guys at that level. Also, I think a wrestler needs some ability to succeed in today's environment. Gorgeous George was extremely popular as a heel for a time, but he was a limited attraction and today the novelty would be gone. I don't think he would be a top draw today. Let's see how my 64 stands up against the actual draft. I will divide this into four sections.
1. Wrestlers both in my top 64 and the draft top 64.
2. Wrestlers in my top 64 who just missed (first 100 picks).
3. Whiffs, Guys in my top 64 who went beyond the 100th pick.
4. Undrafted wrestlers.
I did not rank my list, so it is simply a list of 64 wrestlers/teams.
1. Wrestlers both in my top 64 and the draft top 64.
Since there is a consensus, there should be no need to comment on these names individually.
1. Bret Hart
2. Hulk Hogan
3. The Rock
4. Ric Flair
5. Steve Austin
6. Randy Savage
7. Andre the Giant
8. Shawn Michaels
10. John Cena
11. Triple H
12. Sting
13. The Undertaker
14. Brock Lesnar
15. Mick Foley
16. Kurt Angle
17. Roddy Piper
18. Bill Goldberg
19. Vader
20. Terry Funk
21. Eddie Guerrero
22. Chris Jericho
23. Ricky Steamboat
27. Steiner Brothers
30. Harley Race
31. Ultimate Warrior
33. Kerry Von Erich
34. Dusty Rhodes
35. Curt Hennig
38. The Road Warriors
40. Superstar Billy Graham
44. Bruno Sammartino
45. Jake Roberts
50. Stan Hansen
51. The Great Muta
52. Jack Brisco
54. Bruiser Brody
56. Terry Gordy/Miracle Violence Connection (I had him as part of the Freebirds)
61. Barry Windham
64. Magnum T.A.
2. Wrestlers in my top 64 who just missed (first 100 picks).
65. Jimmy Snuka
67. Rey Mysterio
68. Sid Vicious (as a member of the Skyscrapers)
69. The Big Show
70. Jerry Lawler
72. Sgt. Slaughter
89. Lex Luger
100. Yokozuna
Great picks here, a few main eventers, a couple of solid workers (Sgt. Slaughter is underrated). Chalk this up to slight differences of opinion, perhaps some crowding with posters preferring Japanese workers.
3. Whiffs, Guys in my top 64 who went beyond the 100th pick.
Now we get to the portion where drafters are simply missing the boat on great talent, underrating guys who could carry a promotion, or make a significant contribution. Kudos to those who took the bait and made a wise choice on a late round pick.
101. Junkyard Dog - For a time, one of the most popular wrestlers in the country.
102. Nikita Koloff
104. Nick Bockwinkel - A wrestler with Bockwinkel's cockiness and interview style would no doubt make a top heel today. I could easily see him paired up against John Cena.
110. Trish Stratus - Possibly the greatest female wrestler in U.S. history, incredibly beautiful. Capable of filling a variety of roles.
117. Sabu - Unique style, still unmatched in wrestling. A genuine sensation in the 1990s, unwillingness to work at times hurt his potential.
128. Dory Funk Jr. - Interesting to think what he would do nowadays. Playing the grizzled veteran along with his backstage teaching skills, he'd be an asset to any organization.
131. Lou Thesz - Could he make it today? I think his wrestling skill could carry him, particularly as a stooging heel.
137. The Sheik - The most feared, savage heel of all time.
161. David Von Erich - Future NWA champion until his untimely death. David is a "what if" story, so I can't blame people for overlooking him.
176. Buddy Rogers - Top heel of his era, huge television star. Think Randy Orton cockiness combined with Ric Flair's charisma. Drew the biggest wrestling crowd in the United States in 1961. 38,000+ at Comiskey Park to see him win the NWA title, a mark unsurpassed until 1984.
4. Undrafted wrestlers.
Seven mostly old-school wrestlers who could benefit any promotion.
Mil Mascaras - One of the most popular latino wrestlers in history, used dazzling aerial manuevers in his prime.
Fred Blassie - Before managing, was a blond, vicious heel with incredible talking ability.
Billy Robinson - A great performer from Britain. Had less backstage warts than the Dynamite Kid. His mat work is good even by today's standards.
Jim Londos - Who? The greatest gate attraction of the pre-1950s era. At 190 lbs., handsome and tanned, would make a great babyface champion for a light heavyweight division.
Bobo Brazil - Popular black wrestler who re-defined racial boundaries. 6'6".
Gene Kiniski - Largely unknown NWA champion. Good worker and talent, around 6'4". His size would make him credible and his heel work would carry him from there.
Ernie Ladd - A former NFL star, legitimately huge with great heel mannerisms.
Johnny Valentine - Greg's father worked the same style, but better.
Final Standings of pool play.
Giants 6-4
Dodgers 6-4
Highlanders 6-4
Yankees 6-4
Bridegrooms 4-6
Gothams 2-8
With four teams tied, a tiebreaker is actually easy to set up. Teams seeded one and four will compete, along with teams seeded two and three. The winners will play for the top spot, the loser of that getting the second spot. The losers of the first game will play for third place and the final playoff entry. The Giants pick up the first seed thanks to their 4-2 record against the other three teams. The Dodgers will get home field against the Highlanders due to better run differential. Hera are the tiebreak matchups.
Yankees (Hunter) @ Giants (Gomez)
Highlanders (Ruffing) @ Dodgers (Pettitte)
Giants 3, Yankees 2
Dodgers 6, Highlanders 3
Dodgers 6, Giants 1
Yankees 5, Highlanders 2
First round is Giants vs. Yankees, winner battles the Dodgers. Both series will be contested best of five.
Earle Combs hit .481/.526/.750, taking MVP honors. Jimmy Key will take best pitcher honors with two wins, 23 innings pitched and a 2.74 ERA.
Yankees 3, Giants 4
Yankees 1, Giants 4
Giants 3, Yankees 4
Giants 8, Yankees 2
Giants win series 3 games to 1.
Giants 2, Dodgers 15
Giants 1, Dodgers 10
Dodgers 9, Giants 10 (13 Innings)
Dodgers 4, Giants 6
Giants 8, Dodgers 9 (10 Innings)
Dodgers win series 3 games to 2.
SS- Jim Fregosi
CF- Alex Ochoa
2B- Alfonso Soriano
1B- Norm Cash
RF- Leon Roberts
LF- Gil Hodges
C- Jason Varitek
3B- Billy Ripken
P- Brad Radke
What kind of lineup is that? If similiarity scores have merit, it is a similar lineup to one posted by the Philadelphia Phillies down the stretch. Similarity scores seek to compare two players' statistics and measure their comparability. A score of 1000 would indicate two players who are exactly alike. Scores under 900 indicate players who are not very similar. Bill James developed the concept as a way of judging Hall of Fame arguments. Thanks to spreadsheets and computers, statisticians can instantly compare thousands of players to determine which players are MOST comparable. Baseball-Reference.com has taken the concept further, using similarity scores to measure players at specific ages. Miguel Cabrera is currently most comparable to Hideki Matsui. But if you compare him to other players when they were 23, Henry Aaron appears at the top of the list (as he has the last three years). This is a good omen for Cabrera's career.
Looking at a list of players comparables can give us an idea of what to expect from a player's career. A player with a lot of All-Stars and Hall of Famers is a good bet to continue to have a Hall of Fame career. Some players might have a mix of HOFers, and guys who flamed out early in their careers. If no players similar to a certain player produced much after that point in their careers, we would expect caution. With that in mind, let's take a look at the 2006 Phillies still under contract, and see what we might find.
Understand that when I look at comparables, I am looking at what they did AFTER the age of the player to that I am comparing. Also, Similarity Scores are NOT era adjusted.
C: Carlos Ruiz. Ruiz has only played 69 games in his career, so there is no comp list available. A list of players who played 69 games at the age of 27 would likely contain plenty of scrubs, but that's not entirely fair. You just can not draw a good list with too little data. The same holds true for fellow catcher Chris Coste. Free agent catcher Mike Lieberthal's best comps are Jason Varitek and Terry Steinbach. On average, Lieberthal's top ten comps played two more reasonably productive seasons.
1B: Ryan Howard. Howard's best comp is Norm Cash, an intriguing choice. Ryan Howard at the age of 26 hit 58 home runs. Norm Cash hit .361 with 41 homers, a huge fluke season later attributed to corked bats. Cash produced well into his late 30s hitting 20-30 home runs a season in an era where that reached the top ten.
2B: Chase Utley. Utley's best comps are Alfonso Soriano, Jeff Kent, Marcus Giles, Vinny Castilla and Pedro Guerrero. All of Utley's comps had huge careers with the exception of Giles, who still has time to rebound from a dismal 2006.
SS: Jimmy Rollins. Rollins' best comps are Jim Fregosi and Alan Trammell. Trammell had a great career. Fregosi flamed out early, but not before the Angels dealt him for Nolan Ryan. Rollins more than any other player has a big boom/bust quotent in his comp list. Along with Ryne Sandberg and Lou Boudreau, it includes weak hitters like Zoilo Versalles, Frankie Crosetti and Granny Hamner.
3B: Abraham Nunez. Nunez's best comp is Billy "F.F." Ripken. Ripken was an awful hitter. The only player on Nunez's list to hit above league average was Dave Anderson, who had 84 at bats left. The Phils desperately need an upgrade here.
LF: Pat Burrell. Burrell's best comp is Gil Hodges, a perennial Hall of Fame candidate. With respect to Hodges, this says more about why he isn't a HOFer. Most of Burrell's comps had 5-7 more years left, hitting about 10% above league average. I doubt that's worth $13.5 Million a season, but the Phils can live with that.
CF: Shane Victorino. Alex Ochoa, a player probably seen as an also-ran but was also a terrific fourth outfielder for a few years. Ochoa played five more years hitting league average. With Victorino's defense, that's a big plus.
RF: Aaron Rowand. Carl Everett. Fortunately this measures production and not attitude. It's difficult to get a read on Rowand's comp list because there are many current players on the list. Most of the others were league average hitters who played 5-6 more years.
SP: Brett Myers. Myers best comp is Brad Radke, who went 94-85 over the next eight seasons. Frank Viola is the best player on Myers' list, Sammy Ellis is the worst. No Hall of Famers, but a few All Stars.
SP: Jon Lieber. Lieber's best comp is Kevin Tapani, a player who finished 9-14 for the 2001 Chicago Cubs and then retired. Second is Shane Reynolds who didn't pitch past 37, third is John Burkett (25-17 over two years), and Charles Nagy (retired). Jamie Moyer is seventh on the list, and no other pitcher lasted more than two more seasons. The Phils only need one more good one.
SP: Cole Hamels. Hamels' best comp is Floyd Bannister, the father of Mets' pitcher Brian. Floyd pitched league average ball for 14 seasons. There are some good pitchers on the list, no real stars, but that's what you get with 23 starts. This list would look better if Hamels improves next year.
CL: Tom Gordon. Gordon's best comp is Charlie Hough, which seems a little. Gordon throws gas and a wicked curve from the bullpen. Hough threw a knuckleball. Gordon started and converted to the bullpen. Hough started as a reliever and converted to starting.
This is something that I had floating in my head the last few days. A lot of wrestling reviewers will give negative star ratings to a particularly bad match. Often times it is prompted not by the workers involved, but the sheer idiocy of the booking of the match. In many cases the reviewer goes into the match expecting to hate it. But what truly merits negative stars? In my opinion, it is not enough to put together a boring match. I think a negative star match must fit one of X criteria.
1. The match contained several noticeable, blown spots.
Let's see what they messed up here.
1. Nowinski comes in late to break up a pin attempt.
2. Trish attempts a springboard manuever but Gayda is out of position.
3. Trish attempts a leg sweep but Gayda fails to take the move properly, stumbling to the mat.
4. Trish tries twice to set up the bulldog but Gayda fails to position herself properly.
5. When Trish does go for the bulldog, she misses completely. Gayda sells it anyway.
That is an easy one, it won Wrestling Observer's Worst Match of the Year award for 2002. Now, even good wrestlers will blow spots. Good workers will work it into the flow of the match, making it somewhat indistinguishable for casual wrestling fans. Knowledgeable wrestling fans notice, but they know it is a work anyway.
2. The match contained booking so bad that it insulted the intelligence of the viewing audience.
The Fingerpoke of Doom. WCW advertised Goldberg vs. Kevin Nash and instead gave the fans a ten second "angle" match that turned many against WCW for good.
When does a comedy match merit negative stars? For the most part, if the crowd dies. If the crowd is into the match, you can't really punish the workers because you did not like it. I give an exception to a match such as The Four Doinks at Survivor Series '93. When working the match requires ignoring the established rules of the game, that falls under bad booking.
3. The match denigrated into a shoot with the wrestlers losing all cooperation, preventing the match from reaching an intended conclusion.
This one is extremely interesting, Bruiser Brody vs. Lex Luger. Brody sees fit not to sell anything Luger does until Luger just gives up, draws the DQ and leaves the cage.
I wish I could find Andre the Giant vs. Akira Maeda. I have seen it before. There is a perception often that a better worker gave it to the lesser worker and taught him a lesson, or exposed him. More often it just becomes a disorganized mess with both wrestlers standing awkwardly until someone steps in. Failing to complete a wrestling match is an overlooked, but deserving reason to issue negative stars.
What does not merit negative stars? Two workers stepping into the ring, giving a reasonably competent exhibition of professional wrestling but boring the audience. That merits a dud IMO. Dave Meltzer gave Andre the Giant vs. Big John Studd negative stars. That was a pretty dull match with no high spots outside the finish. But it looked legit and the crowd enjoyed it. That can not possibly be negative stars.
I rarely rate matches but if I did, my scale would give a basic match at least *, just for stepping in the ring. If the match was bad, that lowers the score as far as a dud, providing the combatants did not at least embarrass the sport. In my view, that is the criteria for negative stars.
I'm blatantly ripping off a concept from Bored. The best player from each pick in the draft. The MLB June draft has run from 1965 to the present.
1. Alex Rodriguez, SS
2. Reggie Jackson, OF
3. Robin Yount, SS
4. Dave Winfield, OF or Barry Larkin, SS
5. Dwight Gooden, RHP
6. Barry Bonds, OF
7. Frank Thomas, 1B
8. Todd Helton, 1B
9. Barry Zito, LHP
10. Mark McGwire, 3B
Not one #1 overall pick has yet made the Hall, though Junior Griffey and A-Rod certainly will. Having no player better than Zito at #9 is a surprise, ditto for Doc Gooden at #5.
11. Greg Luzinski, 1B
12. Billy Wagner, LHP or Nomar Garciaparra, SS
13. Manny Ramirez, OF
14. Derrek Lee, 1B
15. Chase Utley, 2B
16. Lance Parrish, IF
17. Roy Halladay, RHP
18. Willie Wilson, OF
19. Roger Clemens, RHP
20. Mike Mussina, RHP
21. Rick Sutcliffe, RHP
22. Craig Biggio, C
23. Jason Kendall, C
24. Rondell White, OF
25. Chuck Knoblauch, 2B
26. Alan Trammell, SS
27. Vida Blue, LHP
28. Lee Smith, RHP
29. George Brett, SS
30. Mike Schmidt, SS
Where are the Hall of Famers? Currently, 19 members of the Hall of Fame began their careers out of the amateur draft. Only six of them (Jackson, Yount, Winfield, Puckett, Fisk, Molitor) were chosen in the first ten picks of the draft. Five of them were not picked in the top 100, and Ryne Sandberg was the 511th pick in his draft. Nolan Ryan was the 226th pick, Goose Goosage was chosen 204th.
Mike & Mike this morning discussed pitching candidates for the Hall of Fame. I figured I'd throw in my two cents.
Shoe Ins
Roger Clemens
Greg Maddux
Randy Johnson
Tom Glavine
Pedro Martinez
Tom Glavine is often labeled as a guy who is close, but in. He's a dead lock, and it is not even close. Glavine as of this writing has 286 wins. Of the 30 pitchers who have won 275 or more games, 22 are in the Hall, three are still active, and two were 19th century pitchers. That leaves Bert Blyleven, Tommy John and Jim Kaat. Let's stack up the numbers.
Glavine: 286-186 (.606), 3.44 ERA, 120 ERA+
Blyleven: 287-250 (.534), 3.31 ERA, 118 ERA+
Kaat: 283-237 (.544), 3.45 ERA, 107 ERA+
John: 288-231 (.555), 3.34 ERA, 111 ERA+
Two things should come out right away. The first is that Glavine's win percentage is over .600. There is simply no precident for leaving out a pitcher with this many wins AND this high a winning percentage. Also note that Blyleven, who pitched effectively as long, posted nearly as good an earned run average in context.
Pedro Martinez has 204 wins right now. Compare his record to pitchers let in with few wins. The Black Ink Test is a tool that measures how often a player led his league in something. It's a good tool both for measuring players with high peaks, and players from different eras. The average Hall of Fame pitcher has a Black Ink score of 40.
Pedro Martinez: 204-88 (.697), 2.75 ERA, 166 ERA+, Black Ink: 55
Jack Chesbro: 198-132 (.600), 2.68 ERA, 110 ERA+, Black Ink: 27
Dizzy Dean: 150-83 (.644), 3.02 ERA, 130 ERA+, Black Ink: 52
Lefty Gomez: 189-102 (.649), 3.34 ERA, 125 ERA+, Black Ink: 46
Addie Joss: 160-97 (.623), 1.89 ERA, 142 ERA+, Black Ink: 19
Sandy Koufax: 165-87 (.655), 2.76 ERA, 131 ERA+, Black Ink: 78
Dazzy Vance: 197-140 (.585), 3.24 ERA, 125 ERA+, Black Ink: 66
Rube Waddell: 193-143 (.574), 2.16 ERA, 134 ERA+, Black Ink: 46
Ed Walsh: 195-126 (.607), 1.82 ERA, 145 ERA+, Black Ink: 67
All of the above players scored high on the Black Ink test except for Jack Chesbro and Addie Joss. Chesbro won 41 games in 1904, and is essentially in the Hall on that statistic alone. Addie Joss's raw numbers are eye popping, but he was never the best pitcher in the league. Pedro Martinez stacks up favorably with all these players, and his winning percentage and ERA+ are better than any pitcher on the list. In fact, Pedro's ERA+ ranks number one all time, and his winning percentage is second behind Al Spalding among HOF pitchers (And Spalding pitched most of his career in the National Association, which MLB does not recognize in official statistics).
On the Bubble
Mike Mussina
Curt Schilling
John Smoltz
These pitchers are harder to judge, and even I am not certain of their Hall of Fame qualifications. Mussina's going to have a tricky time because he never won 20 games, and we know voters love those big round numbers. Mussina's won 19 games twice, 19 three times, and 17 twice. One problem is that Mussina's best years were 1994-95, when he missed several starts due to the strike. It is not difficult to think Mussina would have won four games between August 12 and the end of the 1994 season, and just one more game in four starts in 1995. He led the league in wins in 1995.
If you look at Mussina's record, again you see a superior win/loss percentage (.643 in this case). Let's make a comparison for Mussina here. Eleven pitchers have won 225 or more games, not made the Hall, and pitched after 1900 (not counting active players). I will not add another table because frankly, most readers have not heard some of these names. As a group, they had winning percentages between .491 and .577. Their adjusted ERAs ranged from 101 to 118. They scored between 7 and 20 on the Black Ink test.
Mussina blasts them out of the water in win percentage and adjusted ERA. His record there is superior to any pitcher not in the Hall of Fame. The Black Ink test is trickier, because Mussina only scores a 14. But if you move on to the Gray Ink test (which measures top ten appearances instead of just leading a category), Mussina stands out. Only Bert Blyleven beats Mussina in that category, and Blyleven really should be in the Hall as well. Mussina does not have that one outstanding season. But he's clearly superior to any fringe candidate.
Curt Schilling is the opposite. Not great counting numbers, but some tremendous seasons. Just for fun, here's Schilling next to another current pitcher
Curt Schilling: 202-134
Kenny Rogers: 201-134
Of course Schilling's ERA is nearly a run lower and he has about a thousand more strikeouts. What makes Schilling odd is that he also never won a Cy Young award, which you would think is a prerequisite for making the Hall on a short career. I think Schilling's a deserving candidate though, as he scores favorably on all the Hall of Fame standards tests. If he finishes his career with 220-225 wins with his current win percentage, he should be a lock.
There's no really good statistical judge for John Smoltz. Dennis Eckersley reshaped the closers' role. Smoltz was just a closer for a few years. Obviously he was a great closer and deserves some credit for that, but how much? A closer is not as valuable as a 20 win pitcher, and probably not as valuable as a 15 win pitcher. What about 12 wins? Add 36 wins to his total, give him credit for the 15 wins in the postseason, and he's up to around 233 wins. I would not vote for Smoltz just let, but if he reaches 200 wins, then you have a guy who also has 154 saves and an amazing 15-4 record in the postseason. It's hard to go against that.
Others
It is difficult to predict the future of pitchers. Among the top 100 active pitchers in wins, only Andy Pettitte has a legitimate shot at the Hall. There are many pitchers in the sub 100 win club who could make a run, noteably Johan Santana. The problem is there is little difference in the peak values of great pitchers and good pitchers. The difference is how long they last. Many pitchers like Fernando Valenzuela had great peaks, but only had a few great years. Some guys look like HOFers at age 30 and are gone by age 33. But even if you can not identify a single Hall of Famer or even a 300 game winner in the current generation, chances are someone will outlast the pack.
I'll take a look at HOF closers in the future.
Rather than bury this in an old discussion, I figured I would start anew.
Let me reexamine the top 10 as ranked by Baseball America before the season and then I'll hit on the other prospects Pinjockey discusses.
1. Cole Hamels, SP
Cole Hamels had an extraordinary ascent through the minors before struggling at the Major League level. He's struck out a batter an inning though, and control was usually not a problem in the minors. The big thing is that Hamels has reached a career high in innings pitched. Hamels is still on track.
2. Gio Gonzalez,SP
112 strikeouts in under 100 innings for a 20 year old in AA is highly impressive. The home runs as Pinjockey said are high, but Reading's a fairly good home run park. He'd cut that in half in Scranton. Gonzalez needs to cut down on the walks, but he's another top flight prospect still on target.
3. Greg Golson, OF
The best athlete in the system. That would be even more impressive if he could play baseball. This is Golson's second year at Lakewood and he still can't hit. .220 batting average with 92 Ks against 18 walks. Until Golson actually produces, he's not a prospect in my view.
4. Michael Bourn, OF
Bourn's made a hell of an impression in Scranton, hitting three triples, stealing bases and playing great defense, all in his first week. I think he'll cool off as word of his weaknesses gets around. Bourn has great speed and plate discipline. The problem is that he lacks power, and pitchers will challenge him and defenses will play shallow. There's a fine line between great leadoff hitter and Jason Tyner. I think Bourn at minimum is a good 5th outfielder.
5. Scott Mathieson, SP
I don't think the Phils could have asked for a better season so far. Mathieson dominated AA, went to the majors and held his own, and just made a good start at Scranton. He's still just 22, and his fastball sits in the mid-90s. This is a big IF, but imagine a rotation of Brett Myers (25), Ryan Madson (25), Gavin Floyd (23), Cole Hamels (22), Scott Mathieson (22) and Gio Gonzalez (20). That's a ton of young pitching, and I don't think most fans realize how much the Phils have.
6. Dan Haigwood, SP
Traded to Texas for P Fabio Castro.
7. Welinson Baez, 3B
Baez finally hit on his third trip through Rookie ball and kept it up through Short Season A last year. It was a fluke. Baez is hitting .216 in Lakewood with 111 strikeouts in 287 at bats. Not a prospect at this point.
8. Mike Costanzo, 3B
Mike at least has the excuse of skipping a level. He walks, but that's about it. I doubt Costanzo's got much potential.
9. Brad Harman, SS
Harman drew good reviews as part of Australia's entry into the WBC. His power dropped off a cliff though, and he does not look like much. Harman's young though, and given that the FSL is a pitchers' league I would give Harman another season before writing him off.
10. Jason Jaramillo, C
Jaramillo's struggled this year, but given that he skipped high A and that he's a better defensive catcher, it's not as bad as it looks. Jaramillo's probably at least got a future as a backup.
Early reports on Edgar Garcia are encouraging to a point, particularly the 19/1 K:BB ratio. The low K rate worries me slightly, but he is extremely young yet. Jeremy Slayden is a few months younger than Josh Kroeger. Kroeger's in AAA, Slayden's in Low A. Slayden would have to be a hell of a hitter to make up the difference in levels. He's not a prospect. Carlos Carrasco is having an extremely impressive season, and has easily moved into the Phillies' top ten.
I rented this game recently off Netflix. I thought I had pegged the Gibson walk-off, but this game certainly did not disappoint. A 2-1 victory highlighted by Mark McGwire's walk-off home run in the ninth. A few thoughts:
-It surprises me somewhat that you rarely hear about this homer from McGwire, even during his playing days. You would think a player known for his home run exploits would have this one highlighted.
-McGwire's home run game came three days after Gibson won game one with his own home run. This was the first time two batters hit walk-off home runs in the same series. The only other series to earn this distinction was the 2004 NLCS.
-I will never, ever complain about too many pickoff throws again. Bob Welch threw over eight times after Steve Sax reached base to leadoff the game. The eighth inning was interminable, with the Athletics obsessed with neutralizing Lasorda's running attack.
-Despite the throw overs, the constant threat of hit and runs, steals, etc. make this game very interesting. Broadcaster Vin Scully does an outstanding job of giving the relevant situation, letting the viewer know the potential strategy given the statistics and results of the season. Fox should watch Scully and NBC work games and take notes.
My friends regard me as a baseball nut, and for the most part that is true. Name any year, and I can tell you who played in that World Series off the top of my head. Further along however, I fall flat. Ask me who won the National League West in 1979, and I might not remember. Major League Baseball expanded its playoff format in 1969, adding a League Championship series. Most of us remember the great World Series, as they are prevailent, produced on dvd. The LCS however sometimes fades into oblivion. Unless your local team was involved in a memorable series, you may not ever hear about it. Certainly, ESPN Classic's insistance on never showing complete baseball games means some absolute classics are forgotten. Hopefully, this will begin a series of articles about those series. I intend to relive those series, as well as the losing teams involved.
1980 National League Championship Series
Best of Five
1980 Houston Astros
The Houston Astros (then known as the Colt 45s) began as an expansion team in the 1962 season. The 'Stros amased a fine collection of talent over the years such as Joe Morgan, Jimmy Wynn, Larry Dierker and Don Wilson, but could not quite make it to the top of the National League West. Sharing a division with the Big Red Machine will do that. The Astros of course played their home games in the Houston Astrodome. Fans know about the dome and artificial turf, but relatively few fans realize how tough a hitters' park the Dome was. Astros' hitters were perenially underrated, and some pitchers were overrated. The Astros finally broke through in 1980, as we will see.
The Lineup
C: Alan Ashby (.256/.319/.347, 93 OPS+)
1B: Art Howe (.283/.350/.445, 129 OPS+)
2B: Joe Morgan (.243/.367/.373, 115 OPS+)
SS: Craig Reynolds (.226/.262/.304, 64 OPS+)
3B: Enos Cabell (.276/.305/.351, 90 OPS+)
LF: Jose Cruz Sr. (.302/.360/.426, 128 OPS+)
CF: Cesar Cedeno (.309/.389/.465, 147 OPS+)
RF: Terry Puhl (.282/.357/.419, 124 OPS+)
A few interesting players here. Any of the three outfielders could play center, and Terry Puhl in fact did play 30 games in center that season. Jose Cruz is perhaps one of the most underrated players in baseball history. Cruz hit 106 home runs on the road, but only 59 at home. Playing in the Astrodome most of his career cost him perhaps 50 home runs over the years. Cruz certainly deserved more than two All-Star nods. He is not quite a Hall of Fame caliber player, but he's better than Jim Rice, for example.
Cesar Cedeno could be a Hall of Famer. He was a better player than many center fielders currently in the Hall, and might well have been had he not decended rapidly after age 30. Cedeno still played over 2,000 games thanks to an early start, and finished his career with 550 stolen bases.
Joe Morgan left the Cincinnati Reds after the 1979 season, returning to the team that originally drafted him. Morgan remained one of the most disciplined hitters in the game, drawing 93 walks and stealing 24 bases in 1980. Despite a .243 batting average he was one of the more productive second basemen in the league, even at the age of 36.
Enos Cabell on the other hand rated as the player most often criticized by young baseball author Bill James. Cabell hit .276 on the season, at a glimpse an acceptable average. But then you dig in the stat sheet and see a meager 26 walks, almost no power, and he was caught stealing 13 times against 21 successes.
Craig Reynolds' hitting stats are appaling, but it was common for teams in that era to play unproductive hitters at short, preferring defense. Frank Taveras (Mets, 80 OPS+), Larry Bowa (Phillies, 70 OPS+), Tim Foli (Pirates, 73 OPS+), Luis Gomez (Braves, 26 OPS+), Johnnie LeMaster (Giants, 59 OPS+), and Ozzie Smith (Padres, 71 OPS+) comprised some of the league's starting shortstops. When you remember the Padres' trade of Ozzie to the Cardinals for Garry Templeton, consider that Templeton was the only starting shortstop in the league to hit above the league average in 1980.
Ashby of course starred as an announcer for the Astros for several years, and Art Howe went on to become a successful manager in the majors.
The Rotation
Joe Niekro (20-12, 3.55 ERA, 92 ERA+)
Nolan Ryan (11-10, 3.35 ERA, 98 ERA+)
Ken Forsch (12-13, 3.20 ERA, 103 ERA+)
Vern Ruhle (12-4, 2.37 ERA, 138 ERA+)
J.R. Richard (10-4, 1.90 ERA, 173 ERA+)
Joaquin Andujar (3-8, 3.91 ERA, 84 ERA+)
Joe Niekro was in the midst of a late career surge, posting his second consecutive 20 win season. Given his stellar record and the fact that he was a knuckleballer, I think Niekro's mediocre ERA is the result of staying in games longer than most pitchers when his team had a big lead. That's just a guess. Niekro's son Lance currently plays for the San Francisco Giants.
Nolan Ryan remains the game's most overrated pitcher. For all the flack Bert Blyleven receives about not being a winning pitcher, the same tag could be applied to Nolan Ryan, who had a worse win percentage and lower ERA+. Ryan in 1980 had 14 no decisions, of which his team won 11. He did pitch a large number of innings, as did Niekro.
Vern Ruhle's season was entirely a fluke. He never again won more than nine games in a season, and finished his career with a below average ERA. He did however become a successful pitching coach, first with the Phillies and then with the Astros.
J.R. Richard is one of baseball's most tragic cases. Beginning in 1976, Richard ranked among baseball's best pitchers. Despite surrendering over 100 walks a season, he won 72 games from 1976-79. He found his control in 1979 and posted yet another career year. Richard's first half performance in 1980 netted him his first All-Star appearance, a starting assignment to boot. Unfortunately, Richard suffered a series of bizzare ailments that year. Many fans and reporters thought Richard was a lazy player, and that he was loafing. On July 30, Richard suffered a major stroke, requiring emergency surgery. Richard never pitched in the majors again.
Some other intriguing players on the Astros that season included current Padres' manager Bruce Bochy and long time closer Dave Smith, making his debut season.
The Astros ended the regular season in a tie with the Los Angeles Dodgers, necessitating the first regular season playoff in the National League since 1962. (Oddly, of the seven regular season playoffs in N.L. history, the Dodgers have been in five of them). The Astros had held a three game lead over the Dodgers with three to go. However, those three games happened to be against the Dodgers, in Dodger Stadium. The Astros lost all three games to force the playoff. However, the Astros won the playoff easily, 7-1 behind the pitching of staff ace Joe Niekro.
The NLCS
The first two games took place at Veterans Stadium. The Phillies won game one 3-1, thanks to Greg Luzinski's two run home run in the sixth. Game Two saw the Astros and Phillies go into extra innings tied 3-3. The Astros scored four in the tenth, including Dave Bergman's two run triple. The Phillies had a chance to score a run in the ninth, but Lee Elia held Bake McBride at third base.
Games three through five would be played at the Houston Astrodome. Game Three saw the Astros and Phillies trade zeros through ten innings. Joe Niekro pitched ten scoreless innings, striking out two and walking one. Denny Walling's sacrifice fly scored Rafael Landestoy, winning the game for the 'Stros. Game Four saw the Astros take a 2-0 lead into the eighth inning, but the Phils scored three runs. The Astros tied the game in the ninth, leading the game into extra innings for the third straight time. In the top of the tenth, Pete Rose scored on Greg Luzinski's RBI double, and the Phillies went on to win. Rose famously scored on a close play at the plate, knocking down catcher Bruce Bochy. Rose was widely praised for his aggressiveness. What's forgotten is that Manny Trillo followed up with a double that would've scored Rose anyway. But there were two outs, and no tomorrow.
Game five saw the Astros again take a 5-2 lead into the eighth inning. Phillies down three against Nolan Ryan. In the eighth, Rafael Landestoy replaced Joe Morgan at second base, a defensive manuever the Astros made all series. Larry Bowa led off the inning with a base hit to center field. Bob Boone followed with a hard grounder off Ryan's glove, runners at first and second. Greg Gross reached on a bunt down the third base line, loading the bases. Pete Rose followed with a walk, forcing in a run. At this point, Astros' manager Bill Verdon replaced Ryan with Joe Sambito.
If the Astros made a mistake in the series, this is it. Bowa's hit was the hardest hit ball of the inning. Boone and Gross's hits were both infield shots. Rose walked on a full count. The pitch before ball four, which Bowa fouled out, was clocked at 99 mph. I honestly think Ryan came out too soon. Sambito came in to pitch to left handed Bake McBride, who was pulled for Keith Moreland, a righty. There goes the platoon split. Moreland grounded to second, forcing out Rose but scoring a run. 5-4 Astros, first and third for the Phillies, one out.
Ken Forsch came in to replace Sambito. Mike Schmidt struck out in a key spot, leaving two outs. Del Unser bailed out Schmidt and the team, hitting a single to right that scored the tying run. With runners on first and second, Manny Trillo tripled to left, scoring two runs and giving the Phillies a 7-5 lead.
Bottom of the eighth, the Phils attempted to lock down the game by bringing in Tug McGraw. McGraw however, running on fumes, could not get the job done. Two consecutive RBI singles by Rafael Landestoy and Jose Cruz tied the game yet again.
Top of the tenth, Del Unser doubled and Garry Maddox hit a two out double to plate Unser, giving the Phils the lead. Maddox's double was a simple base hit, but Puhl had to dive for it knowing that if it fell in, the Phils would take the lead. The Astros went in order in the bottom of the tenth to give the Phillies the pennant. Noteable about that last half of the inning was Enos Cabell swinging at ball four and flying out to center field for his trouble.
In that five game series, four game went into extra innings. If you watch the Phillies' broadcast, you note Tim McCarver laughing hysterically as the Phillies win the pennant on Maddox's catch. It was an extremely hard fought series, and the Phillies really felt like they simply survived that game, not just won it. In my mind, it rates as the greatest game in Phillies' history, due to its combination of excitement and importance. The Phils would go on to defeat the Kansas City Royals in six games for their first and only World Series championship.
The Astros again reached the postseason the following season. After taking the first two games from the Dodgers, they lost the next three and the series. They lost to the New York Mets in the 1986 NLCS, puncuated by a 16 inning classic game six. Division series appearances in 1997, '98, '99 and 2001 all resulted in losses, giving the Astros seven consecutive playoff series losses. They finally broke that streak in 2004, and won their first National League pennant in 2005.
As some of you might know, I have a part time gig scoring minor league games for an independant statistics company called Baseball Info Solutions. It's not well paying but it allows me to see more games than I would otherwise. This week I saw an entire four game series between AAA teams Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and Richmond. The Richmond Braves are an affiliate of the Atlanta Braves and the Barons are of course an affiliate of the Phillies.
Tuesday: Red Barons 6, Braves 1
The are times the stat sheet gives you an indication that it might be a fun week. The Red Barons came in at 56-46 (.549), while the Braves came in at 38-63 (.376). Richmond is the worst offensive team in the International League, carrying a team slugging percentage of .343.
-The Braves had one chance of coming back at this. Down 5-1 in the 7th, the Braves placed runners on the corners with one out. Tony Pena popped out foul however, and Brayan Pena tried to catch Joe Thurston napping. B. Pena was thrown out at home. That's a good move down a run or tied, but down four it is a foolish gamble.
-Scott Mathieson dominated, giving up just three hits and one run over eight innings and striking out seven. I don't think there's a Phillies prospect who has taken a bigger step forward over the last year. Mathieson has obvious MLB talent, and it's a matter of time before he gets there for good. The question is whether he starts or closes. He's easily a guy who can turn into the next Jon Papelbon.
Wednesday: Red Barons 4, Braves 1
Sometimes something little can make a big difference in a game. The Braves got two quick outs in the third before Michael Bourn doubled. Joe Thurston singled, moving Bourn to third. Chris Roberson followed with a single of his own that plated Bourn. The ball was fielded deep in the hole by Braves' 2B Cesar Crespo however, and Thurston was dead between second and third. The Braves botched the rundown, and Thurston and Roberson ended up on third and second. Carlos Ruiz followed with a home run, and it's 4-0 Barons. In three pitches the Braves went from "should have been out of the inning" to down four runs.
That came back to haunt the Braves in the ninth, when they scored a meaningless run that would've tied the game had they executed the rundown.
Thursday: Red Barons 7, Braves 6 (12 Innings)
The Red Barons have given us a great season, with four really good starters right now. This time we got starter number five, Jeremy Cummings. The Braves were nice enough to oblige with a mediocre starter of their own, so this got brutal in the early goings. The lead changed about five times in the early going. 1-0 Braves. 1-1 after the first inning. Braves scored one in the third, Red Barons followed with two. Braves score two again in the fourth to retake the lead, and the Barons followed up with three in their half. The Braves scored one in the fifth to cut the lead to 6-5. Thankfully the starters came out at that point and things settled down.
Until the 9th. Mikey, who sits two rows behind us and has grown up at the park, says "I think he's gonna get shelled," referring to closer Brian Sanches. Some kids are too smart for their own good. That is going to be how my own grandchild acts someday. Leadoff hitter Gregor Blanco kicked off the inning with a 12 pitch walk. Tough break, but he earned it. Blanco stole second on a close play, drawing some vehiment disagreements. I thought Blanco was safe, but I was 120 feet away and I have bad eyesight. Cesar Crespo followed with a sac bunt, and pitcher Sanches tried to get the tough out at third. He didn't have a chance. The next hitter, Michael Ryan, groundout out, scoring the tying run. The Barons escaped with no further damage.
That is where everything got real fun. The umpire booted Carlos Ruiz from the game for arguing balls and strikes. Manager John Russell got tossed and presumably Brian Sanches was thrown out as well. The next half inning saw coach Sal Rende move to the third base coache's box and player Ryan Fleming take over coaching duties at first. (In AAA, the manager occupies the third base box. This was common in the majors before teams started employing ten coaches at a time.) The second batter, Michael Bourn, is informed that he too has been tossed. The only plausible explanation is that he was the same height as Carlos Ruiz. I do not usually take heat with the umpires but at this point it had become ridiculous. Our first base coach had to pinch hit.
Dusty Wathan came in to catch, and Josh Kroeger was used earlier as a pinch hitter. That left Juan Sosa as our last bench player. So of course Danny Sandoval was hit by a pitch in the 11th and had to come out. Pitcher Brian Mazone pinch ran for Sandoval, and reliever Ryan Cameron batted for himself. Juan Sosa came in as a defensive sub in the next inning. Ryan Cameron appeared to be in the game as long as possible, pitching three perfect innings.
Wathan hit the first pitch of the 12th over the right-center wall for a game winner. Wathan has won two games with extra inning home runs this year. Wathan has four home runs this year total.
-That was long winded, so let me throw this one out quick. The Braves made five errors, three alone by third baseman Jonathan Schuerholz. You might recognize the name, he's the son of the current Braves' GM. Some at the beginning of the year questioned his promotion to AAA, and suggested it was simply nepotism. Schuerholz has answered his critics by hitting .161/.248/.192 in 79 games. He can't hit for average, can't hit for power, isn't a baserunning threat (four steals in six tries), and apparently can't field. Intangibles? That does a world of good on a 38-67 team. This guy is EASILY the worst player in the International League. His father does him a disservice leaving him out to dry.
Little side note. Some woman asked me if I was a scout. She thinks she can get into professional baseball, and wants to meet Derek Jeter. She also swore she was on her first beer. She probably would have had better luck asking Yankees' first base coach Tony Pena, who happened to be sitting in the next section watching his son play ball. Tony Jr.'s not much of a hitter but good defensively at shortstop.
Friday: Red Barons 7, Braves 3
Brian Mazone isn't a prospect. He has however posted a 9-1 record since being promoted from AA Reading. He doesn't have great peripherals. He just somehow seems to be effective. He also has that one bad inning where he struggles, and the Braves got a run across in the second.
All four games in this series were decided by a home run. Brennan King's two run shot on Tuesday gave the Barons a 3-0 lead. Carlo Ruiz's three run homer was the difference on Wednesday. Dusty Wathan hit a walk-off on Thursday. This time, Joe Thurston hit a two out grand slam in the fourth. The game was 6-1 after that, and the game was never really competitive. The fortunate part was that none of the four games were blowouts. A blowout game is the worst because neither team particularly cares about getting effective pitching in the game.
Sandoval played after nearly being carried from the field the night before. He got the MLB call® right after the game, as did Tony Pena Jr. of the Braves.
I picked up Out Of the Park Baseball a few weeks ago, a sim game that allows you to pick up any year in baseball history. One thing I've wanted to do is replay the Phillies' history from 1901 to the present. I don't know if I'm that nuts, but the idea pitiqued my curiosity enough to check out the Phils at the turn of the century. Reviewing that team revealed a few interesting things not just about the team, but about baseball in general at that time.
A few terms I am using in the stat line. WARP stands for wins above replacement player, a Baseball Prospectus stat. PRAA is pitching runs above average, created I believe by statistician Pete Palmer. When reviewing the stats, keep in mind the context. Batters actually hit for a higher average in 1901, .267 compared to .262 last year. The league slugging average however was a meager .348. Teams scored MORE runs in 1901, chiefly because teams made three times as many errors as they do today. That is why Earned Run Averages are much lower.
Catching
C Ed McFarlane (.285/.326/.356, 4.9 WARP, 10 win shares)
The Phils carried three catchers, Ed McFarlane, Klondike Douglass, and Fred Jacklitsch. All three were decent catchers at some point in their careers, although McFarlane was the best of the lot. These days, the rare team that carries three catchers does so in the event that they find themselves stuck without a catcher in a game. The Phils only changed catchers mid-game five times all season. Douglass was primarily a bat off the bench, and possibly a platoon partner for McFarlane. Catching was an extremely demanding position at that time, and catchers needed almost as much rest as pitchers.
Infield
1B Hughie Jennings (.262/.342/.354, 2.4 WARP, 8 win shares)
2B Bill Hallman (.184/.236/.236, 2.8 WARP, 5 win shares)
SS Monte Cross (.197/.281/.236, 3.3 WARP, 7 win shares)
3B Harry Wolverton (.309/.356/.369, 6.0 WARP, 15 win shares)
Hughie Jennings is the big name, a Hall of Fame player coming to the end of his career. Jennings was a great shortstop for five years with the Baltimore Orioles in the 1890s, and that combined with his career as a manager of the Detroit Tigers put him in the Hall. Jennings was an average hitter at this point, but he adequately replaced Jimmy Slagle, who performed poorly over the first two months. Wolverton was the best hitting infielder of the bunch, back when third base was more of a defensive position. Cross and Hallman were absolutely pathetic at the stick. Cross had some plate discipline but no pop. Hallman could bunt for outs.
Outfield
LF Ed Delahanty (.354/.427/.528, 11.1 WARP, 33 win shares)
CF Roy Thomas (.309/.437/.334, 8.0 WARP, 24 win shares)
RF Elmer Flick (.333/.399/.500, 11.0 WARP, 30 win shares)
Two Hall of Famers, and Delahanty's one of the all time greats. Philadelphia from 1891 all the way through the mid-teens sported an absolutely spectacular outfield. They started with Delahanty/Billy Hamilton/Sam Thompson. When Hamilton left they brought in Roy Thomas, when Thompson left they got Flick and then John Titus (and later Gavy Cravath), and when Delahanty left they found Sherry Magee. Delahanty was a great slugger. Flick was a fantastic contact hitter with speed. And Roy Thomas was one of the most unique players in baseball history.
Roy Thomas has the biggest runs to RBI ratio in the history of the game. He did not hit for a great average (.290 career), had absolutely NO power (7 career home runs), and he wasn't a great basestealer (244 career steals was NOT a notable total at that time). What Thomas did was walk, and he walked a TON. Thomas led the National League in walks for seven out of eight seasons. Six times Thomas reached base the most times in the league, and twice he led the league in OBP. Purely on the strength of his OBP, he was one of the greatest leadoff hitters of all time.
Bench
IF Shad Barry (.246/.294/.298, 1.7 WARP, 4 win shares)
OF Jimmy Slagle (.202/.277/.273, 1.5 WARP, 3 win shares)
C Klondike Douglass (.324/.371/.370, 2.8 WARP, 7 win shares)
C Fred Jacklitsch (.250/.328/.333, 1.8 WARP, 4 win shares)
2B Joe Dolan (.081/.128/.081, -0.3 WARP, 0 win shares)
2B Bert Conn (.192/.250/.231, 0.1 WARP, 0 win shares)
OF George Browne (.222/.263/.278, 0 WARP, 0 win shares)
It is important to note that teams did not construct rosters the way they do today. There were no organized minor leagues at the time, so teams simply carried promising prospects on their big league rosters. Bench players were those not good enough to play every day. Of this bunch, Dolan was cut shortly into the season, and Jimmy Slagle was released in late June. Slagle went on to become part of the Cubs' dynasty, although the Phils had a great left fielder of their own of that time in Sherry Magee. Shad Barry came in and played all over the field to spell the regulars. As I will note later, even pitchers were rarely pinch hit for. A pitcher would bat for himself even with his team down a run in the 8th inning. This all meant very few in-game substitutions.
Rotation
Red Donahue (20-13, 2.59 ERA, 27 PRAA, 24 win shares)
Al Orth (20-12, 2.27 ERA, 31 PRAA, 29 win shares)
Bill Duggleby (20-12, 2.88 ERA, 15 PRAA, 22 win shares)
Doc White (14-13, 3.19 ERA, -7 PRAA, 16 win shares)
Happy Townsend (9-6, 3.45 ERA, -3 PRAA, 8 win shares)
Jack Dunn (0-1, 21.21 ERA, -10 PRAA, 0 win shares)
Those top three I doubt you have heard of. Pitchers who straddled the line between the 19th and 20th centuries tend to be overlooked by most baseball fans. Donahue, famous for his curve, compiled a 164-175 career line, his below .500 career due mostly to an awful 17-60 campaign with the St. Louis Browns from 1895-97. Al Orth was an entirely average pitcher who had two great seasons in 1899 and 1901. Orth was the premier change-up pitcher of his time. Bill Duggleby as well experienced his one great year in 1901. Doc White was merely a 22 year old rookie in 1901, but went on to win 189 games and a World Series with the Chicago White Sox in 1906. Happy Townsend was also a rookie that season. After the season, Townsend jumped to the Washington Senators of the upstart American League. As far as dumb moves go, that might take the cake. Townsend went 23-69 over four seasons with the Senators.
The trouble with evaluating pitchers of this era is that I suspect a great deal of pitching greatness was determined by a team's defense. In 1901, Tom Hughes of the Chicago Orphans (now Cubs) led the league with 6.57 strikeouts per nine innings. With the league as a whole striking out less than four batters a game, that was a lot of balls in play. Remember pitchers pitched a ton of innings and pitched quickly, and they did not have to bear down on pitchers like today.
Jack Dunn pitched only two starts before moving on to the Baltimore Orioles of the American League. Finished as a quality pitcher, Dunn became a utility player and prolonged his career for a few seasons. After the Orioles moved to New York and became the Highlanders, the Orioles were revived as a minor league franchise in the International League. Dunn became the owner/operator of the club, and was the man who scouted Babe Ruth into organized baseball.
Bullpen
None. The Phils made 17 pitching changes the entire season, and when they needed a new pitcher they simply called on one of their other starters. The Phillies' starters completed 125 of their 140 starts, and only once did they use three pitchers in a game. Bill Duggleby appeared in six games in relief, Doc White four.
Pitchers' Batting
Al Orth (.281/.303/.352)
Bill Duggleby (.165/.193/.200)
Red Donahue (.097/.128/.115)
Doc White (.276/.297/.357)
Happy Townsend (.109/.123/.156)
Jack Dunn (1 for 1, 1 BB)
With hitting numbers like these, no wonder why these guys batted on their own. Al Orth and Doc White were just as capable as the pinch hitters.
Manager
Bill Shettsline. Shettsline had an innocuous career as manager, guiding the Phils from 1898-1902, finishing as high as second. He never managed elsewhere or played MLB himself.
Outcome and Aftermath
The Phils finished 83-57, good for second place in the league, 7.5 games behind the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Phils would use a great deal of their players in the ongoing war between the American and National Leagues. Monte Cross, Ed Delahanty, Red Donahue, Al Orth, Elmer Flick, Harry Wolverton and others jumped to the American League. The Phils fell to 7th place. Curiously, the American League did not raid the Pirates' roster. The Bucs won 103 games and finished 27.5 games ahead. The lack of a pennant race further boosted the American League, and the National League sued for peace, creating the Major Leagues as we know them.
Last year I ran a tournament of the greatest teams in MLB history. The '95 Cleveland Indians prevailed with a win in the finals over the '39 New York Yankees. I quite liked that tournament, and with the College World Series nearly upon us I'd like to try it again. The format is fairly simple. The 64 team field is divided into 16 four-team brackets. Each bracket is double-elimination. The 16 winners advance to Super Regionals, which are best-of-three affairs. The eight winners advance to the College World Series, but we'll have a different name for that.
I don't have the full brackets worked out, but here are the groupings I've worked out so far. We're taking the Regionals at face value this time, and trying to group teams mainly by geography.
BRONX Regional: '98 Yankees, '61 Yankees, '12 Giants, '54 Giants.
BROOKLYN Regional: '41 Dodgers, '55 Dodgers, '27 Yankees, '77 Yankees
QUEENS Regional: '69 Mets, '86 Mets, '39 Yankees, '53 Yankees
BOSTON Regional: '12 Red Sox, '46 Red Sox, '67 Red Sox, 2004 Red Sox
PHILADELPHIA Regional: '50 Phillies, '80 Phillies, '29 Athletics, '11 Athletics
CHICAGO Regional: '06 Cubs, '84 Cubs, '19 White Sox, 2005 White Sox
LOS ANGELES Regional: '63 Dodgers, '78 Dodgers, 2002 Angels, '98 Padres
OAKLAND Regional: '74 Athletics, '88 Athletics, 2002 Athletics, 2003 Giants
ST. LOUIS Regional: '34 Cardinals, '42 Cardinals, '67 Cardinals, '82 Cardinals
CLEVELAND Regional: '95 Indians, '54 Indians, '75 Reds, '40 Reds
PITTSBURGH Regional: '09 Pirates, '79 Pirates, '70 Orioles, '24 Senators
DETROIT Regional: '68 Tigers, '84 Tigers, '92 Blue Jays, '94 Expos
KANSAS CITY Regional: '85 Royals, 2001 Mariners, '82 Brewers, '65 Twins
ATLANTA Regional: '98 Braves, '57 Braves, '48 Braves, '14 Braves
HOUSTON Regional: '98 Astros, '99 Rangers, 01 Diamondbacks, '95 Rockies
MIAMI Regional: '97 Marlins, '04 Devil Rays, '32 Yankees, 2004 Cardinals
Any suggestions/comments?
I picked up Volume One of the Royal Rumble Anthology (1988-92) from Amazon.com. At $35 any of these sets is a great value, as each event comes out at $7 apiece. I do not know how many of you were WWF fans in the early '90s, but Coliseum Video copies of the events used to run in the neighborhood of $60. Next time your elderly neighbor complains about prices these days, remember not everything has gotten more expensive.
1988 Royal Rumble
It is harder to judge this event against the others, because it was not a standard Pay-per-view event. This show was essentially an episode of Saturday Night's Main Event with an extended battle royal attached. The Royal Rumble was not outstanding and not dull, and you got a Jumping Bomb Angels match in the deal. I still think the Islanders/Young Stallions match is poor. No crowd heat whatsoever and nearly ten minutes in-between falls. Given the show live must have run close to three hours, it has more of a vibe of "let's get this over with."
1989 Royal Rumble
The Rumble enough is solid enough but the undercard is very weak once you get past the opening tag bout. (Rougeaus and Dino Bravo against Hacksaw Jim Duggan and the Hart Foundation.) Actually there are only four matches on the show, including the Royal Rumble. The Rumble itself is again fairly good, with Demolition entering one/two, the compelling Hogan/Savage angle, the Savage/Bad News Brown feud, and the Hogan/Twin Towers feud coming into play. The match dies off with Hogan's elimination, but watching DiBiase get his comeuppance makes the match watchable.
1990 Royal Rumble
As a kid I used to fast-forward through the undercards to get to the Rumble match itself. As a result, I missed the Valentine/Garvin feud. There is great stuff between those two guys, and their submission match is a great battle of psychology, with each guy sporting their own shinguards, losing them mid-match, Garvin pelting Valentine with his own shinguard to set up the finish. Up until 2000-02 gave us some good Rumbles, this was the second best of the bunch.
1991 Royal Rumble
For the first time, this disc gave me the opportunity to watch Koko B. Ware vs. The Mountie (it was cut from the CV version). It does not matter much, but it would bug people who are completists. The overriding theme here is the patriotism in the wake of the Iraqi War. Vince really mis-measured fan reaction and it caused him to set up a drastic failure in Hogan/Slaughter at Wrestlemania VII. The first hint should have been the end of the Warrior/Slaughter match. Security guards line the aisle for Sarge's return to the dressing room, and the fan hatred is lukewarm at best. As an aside, it is amusing that Slaughter stayed with the AWA until the bitter end and never held the title. Yet Vince gave him the WWF title within six months.
1992 Royal Rumble
Let me take a few moments and lay out the reasons why this Rumble match is whitout question the greatest of all time. Not only is it a great match, it links all the participants together and just about every point of the match means something in the grander scheme. The match is really split into two parts. Part one is the prologue, Ric Flair enters third, Bobby Heenan goes apoplectic, and Flair fights for survival. The first part is setting up Flair for ironman status. There comes a point where Flair eliminates the Boss Man and Flair is left alone for several seconds. Then the fun starts with Roddy Piper entering the fray. Then Jake Roberts with his heel character, alternatively turning on Piper and Flair as the situation dictates. You have the Undertaker entering, the Savage/Roberts feud, the Hogan/Flair feud, Sid Justice becoming a legitimate force, etc. It is solid action for the last 20-30 minutes, and watching 15 years later I am surprised how quickly everything unfolds after number 30 enters.
The whole set and each event is an easy thumbs up really. I will not do star ratings, but let me take a shot at ranking the matches.
Rumbles
1. 1992
2. 1990
3. 1991
4. 1989
5. 1988
Non-Rumble Matches
1. Rockers vs. Orient Express, 1991
2. Ron Garvin vs. Greg Valentine, 1990
3. Jumping Bomb Angels vs. Glamour Girls, 1988
4. Jim Duggan/Hart Foundation vs. Dino Bravo/Rougeaus, 1989
5. Roddy Piper vs. The Mountie, 1992
Greatest Moments
1. Ric Flair wins WWF Title, 1992
2. Virgil turns face, 1991
3. Roddy Piper shocks the Mountie, 1992
4. Ultimate Warrior/Hulk Hogan showdown, 1990
5. Demolition enters first and second, 1989
I'm running a greatest teams tournament on Strategic Baseball Simulator, and I figured I would post the results here. I am running the tournament in the same manner of the College World Series. It is extremely unscientific, so take any results with a grain of salt. The tournament consists of four rounds...
Regionals
Sixteen separate four team brackets. The competition is double-elimination, meaning the losers fall into a second bracket. Teams are eliminated after two losses.
Super Regionals
Eight brackets of two teams each. Best of three games.
Semifinals
This is where the competition reaches Omaha in the College version. Again we have two brackets of four teams each, double elimination.
Championship
Final two teams in a best of three competition.
In order to even things up, I divided the tournament into four eras. 1901-34, 1935-65, 1966-87, and 1988-2005. Each era contains an approximately even number of teams in their talent pool. There have been about 2,100 teams since 1900, and each era contains about 550. (This is the kind of stuff you do to pass time in a boring class). Here are the entrants.
'14 BosN @ '06 ChC
'34 StL @ '32 NYY
'06 Cubs 3, '14 Braves 2
'34 Cardinals 5, '32 Yankees 1
'19 Cin @ '21 NYG
'35 ChC @ '12 BosA
'21 Giants 14, '19 Reds 5
'35 Cubs 3, '12 Red Sox 0
'19 CWS @ '29 PhA
'07 Det @ '27 NYY
'19 White Sox 8, '29 Athletics 3
'27 Yankees 8, '07 Tigers 6
'09 Pit @ '12 NYG
'24 Was @ '11 PhA
'12 Giants 9, '09 Pirates 6
'24 Senators 9, '11 Athletics 4
'50 Phi @ '53 NYY
'57 Mil @ '54 Cle
'53 Yankees 2, '50 Phillies 1
'57 Braves 4, '54 Indians 0
'62 SF @ '55 Brk
'41 Brk @ '46 StL
'62 Giants 10, '55 Dodgers 6
'41 Dodgers 10, '46 Cardinals 8
'65 Min @ '61 NYY
'46 Bos @ '63 LAD
'61 Yankees 7, '65 Twins 5
'63 Dodgers 3, '46 Red Sox 0
'35 Det @ '40 Cin
'59 CWS @ '39 NYY
'40 Reds 3, '35 Tigers 1
'39 Yankees 10, '59 White Sox 5
I'm taking a break from the games for a moment to briefly discuss the managers. Several managers have two teams in the tournament. Walter Alston manages three teams, the '55, '63 and '74 Dodgers. Here are the other multi-team managers.
Sparky Anderson ('75 Reds, '84 Tigers)
Bobby Cox ('92 Braves, '98 Braves)
Alvin Dark ('62 Giants, '74 Athletics)
Tony LaRussa ('88 Athletics, 2004 Cardinals)
Al Lopez ('54 Indians, '59 White Sox)
Connie Mack ('11 Athletics, '29 Athletics)
Joe McCarthy ('32 Yankees, '39 Yankees)
John McGraw ('12 Giants, '21 Giants)
Joe Torre ('98 Yankees, 2003 Yankees)
Top managers in career wins who are not represented.
1. Gene Mauch
2. Tommy Lasorda
3. Clark Griffith
4. Jimmie Dykes
5. Wilbert Robinson
'67 Bos @ '74 Oak
'84 Det @ '80 KC
'74 Athletics 4, '67 Red Sox 3, 12 Innings
'80 Royals 5, '84 Tigers 1
'69 NYM @ '80 Phi
'85 StL @ '70 Balt
'69 Mets 4, '80 Phillies 1
'85 Cardinals 5, '70 Orioles 1
'74 LAD @ '77 NYY
'79 Pit @ '86 NYM
'77 Yankees 6, '74 Dodgers 2
'86 Mets 5, '79 Pirates 4, 14 innings
'68 Det @ '67 StL
'82 Mil @ '75 Cin
'68 Tigers 2, '67 Cardinals 1
'75 Reds 8, '82 Brewers 4
'94 Mon @ '98 NYY
'02 Oak @ '04 StL
'98 Yankees 9, '94 Expos 8
'04 Cardinals 3, '02 Athletics 2
'04 Bos @ '92 Atl
'01 Sea @ '88 Oak
'04 Red Sox 11, '92 Braves 3
'88 Athletics 2, '01 Mariners 1, 10 Innings
'05 CWS @ '03 NYY
'02 SF @ '95 Cle
'05 White Sox 2, '03 Yankees 0
'95 Indians 5, '02 Giants 2
'01 Ari @ '92 Tor
'03 Fla @ '99 Atl
'01 Diamondbacks 11, '92 Blue Jays 5
'03 Marlins 1, '98 Braves 0
Bored's recent blog on the 1996 Athletics mentioned the name of Ernie Young, a current mainstay in the minor leagues. His blog got me thinking. I attend Scranton/Wilkes-Barre games regularly, and I see several players who are very good, but lack (or seemingly lack) the ability to play in the Major Leagues. They still provide some value however, and they make minor league games worth watching. Only a handful of the players in AAA are real prospects, after all. I thought I would draw up a list of some of my favorites. The only criteria is that the player should be a AAA veteran, and for the most part a non-prospect.
1. RP Colter Bean, Columbus Clippers.
Free Colter Bean! Bean is a 6'6", side-arming right handed pitcher in the Yankees' organization. Most do not consider Bean a prospect due to his lack of noticeable velocity. He's the kind of pitcher that scouts feel do not adapt to the majors. I regard that as sheer foolishness. Since joining the Clippers in 2003, Bean has compiled a 19-12 record in relief, including a 2.62 ERA and 274 strikeouts in 233 innings. Meanwhile the Yankees sit in the Bronx and wonder why the hell they can not find relievers.
2. OF/1B Jim Rushford, Reading Phillies.
Rushford looked headed to the Northern League before re-signing with the Phillies' organization the last week of March. Unlike Bean, Rushford's failings are pretty apparent. He hits for a high average and has good plate discipline. He does not hit for much power however, only hitting more than 10 home runs once, in 1997. He's a below average right fielder and average first baseman. Most teams do not have a need for that type of player in the majors, but he fits well in the minors.
3. OF Ernie Young, Charlotte Knights
The essential minor league journeyman. Young has hit over 300 home runs between the majors and minors, and won a Gold medal with the 2000 Olympic Baseball team. He could help a major league club in a fifth outfielder's role yet.
4. RP Dan Giese, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Red Barons
Giese retired midway through last season for unspecified reasons. I'm glad to see him back. Giese is pure control out of the bullpen. Last season he walked just one batter in 38 innings. This season Giese has come out firing, striking out 17 batters and walking one in 10 1/3 minor league innings. He's a pitcher that could really surprise people, and could grab a spot in the Phillies' bullpen if it struggles this summer.
5. SP Brandon Duckworth, Indianapolis Indians
At one time Duckworth was a prospect. He compiled a 15-3 record for the Red Barons in 23 starts, including 164 strikeouts in 165 innings, with just 40 walks. Then he fell apart in Philly and hasn't been the same pitcher. He's got a name and face that suggest he shouldn't be that good, so it's fun to watch him when he succeeds.
6. 1B Brad Eldred, Indianapolis Indians
Eldred's plate discipline is abysmal. He struck out 157 times last year while drawing just 35 walks. He struck out 148 times in 2004 while drawing 41 walks. If you gave him 600 ABs in the majors, he would absolutely shatter Adam Dunn's strikeout record. The beauty is though that if he gets ahold of one, he can hit it as far as any player in baseball.
7. C Bobby Estalella, whereabouts unknown.
Estalella, due to injuries, will never get his chance in the majors. He was once a young AAA prospect with power and plate discipline, but now he's on the wrong side of 30. It's a shame because his grandfather was an MLB semi-regular who also never got a fair chance.
Three Game series, pitting the 1939 New York Yankees against the 1995 Cleveland Indians.
'95 Indians (Charles Nagy) @ '39 Yankees (Monte Pearson)
'39 Yankees (Atley Donald) @ '95 Indians (Ken Hill)
'95 Indians (Dennis Martinez) @ '39 Yankees (Red Ruffing) (if necessary)
Game 1
'95 Indians 12, '39 Yankees 4
The Indians steamrolled Yankee pitching in the first game of the series. Albert Belle hit two home runs and Omar Vizquel and Sandy Alomar added home runs of their own. Belle has now hit seven home runs in the tournament. Charles Nagy pitched seven innings to improve his record to 3-0, while Monte Pearson drops to 0-1.
'95 Indians 10, '39 Yankees 4
The Indians again crushed the Yankees to wrap up a tournament victory. Ken Hill (2-0) pitched two innings for the victory while Atley Donald (2-1) lasted just two innings in the loss. Albert Belle hit his eighth home run.
Tournament MVP: Joe Dimaggio, 1939 Yankees
Dimaggio hit .386 in 44 at bats with a tournament leading 16 RBIs.
Tournament Cy Young: Charles Nagy, '95 Indians
3-0. 1.29 ERA.
I should have included this in my discussion regarding Hall of Fame relievers. How many relievers should go in the Hall? It is my firm belief that relief pitchers are simply not as good as starting pitchers. Why should a mediocre pitcher go ahead of a very good pitcher simply because he was placed in an easier role?
Easier role? Yes, there is a lot of talk placed upon the closer pitching in such a high pressure role, and how crucial he is to a team. The closer is important, no doubt. But the fact is that nearly all closers are pitchers who failed miserably as starting pitchers, if they even held that role. Hall of Fame reliever Rollie Fingers went 7-17 as a starter. Goose Gossage went 9-22. Lee Smith went 0-5 in six starts. Eric Gagne has a 4.68 career ERA as a starter. Mariano Rivera's ERA as a starter was 5.94.
There's an obvious bias at work. Relievers tend to be starters before their prime, and if they were great starters they wouldn't have been moved. Just out of curiosity, I wanted to take a look at starters, as relievers. This is more difficult because great starters in this era almost never make relief appearances. Ace starters in the dead ball era, such as Christy Mathewson and Mordecai Brown, used to double as their teams' relief ace.
David Wells made 171 relief appearances as a reliever. Wells had a 3.23 ERA as a reliever, compared to 4.13 as a starter. Pedro Martinez's ERA in 67 relief appearances is a paltry 2.18. There are a few counter examples. Curt Schilling had a lower ERA in the rotation. Again, there's a lot of statistical noise though.
What amazes me looking at pitchers like Gagne is that more teams do not make relievers out of their failed starting pitching prospects. The Cincinnati Reds just gave up two starting position players largely for bullpen help. Instead of paying top dollar for relievers, why not try to produce some of your own? A guy like John Stephens, ineffective in the rotation, could become the next Stu Miller.
There's room for relievers in the Hall. However, voters must be VERY selective. The current trend of allowing one every few years is wise. It's better to be frugal now than to elect many and make some irreversible mistakes.
I'm posting this here because I didn't feel like beating a dead horse in the MLB thread. There is a legitimate argument that Bagwell is not only Hall of Fame worthy, but he is the best first baseman in the history of the National League. Blasphemy? Check out the leaderboards. Minimum 5000 Plate Appearances for rate statistics.
DOUBLES 2B
1 Mark Grace 511
T2 Cap Anson 488
T2 Jeff Bagwell 488
4 Jake Beckley 435
5 Andres Galarraga 428
6 Keith Hernandez 424
7 Jim Bottomley 419
8 Todd Helton 411
9 Steve Garvey 409
10 Charlie Grimm 394
HITS H
1 Jake Beckley 2763
2 Cap Anson 2710
3 Mark Grace 2445
4 Steve Garvey 2443
5 Jake Daubert 2326
6 Jeff Bagwell 2314
7 Charlie Grimm 2297
8 Andres Galarraga 2273
9 Bill Terry 2193
10 Keith Hernandez 2156
HOMERUNS HR
1 Jeff Bagwell 449
2 Willie McCovey 439
3 Andres Galarraga 388
4 Gil Hodges 369
5 Orlando Cepeda 331
6 Johnny Mize 315
7 Eric Karros 282
8 Todd Helton 281
9 Fred McGriff 269
10 Ted Kluszewski 257
INTENTIONAL WALKS IBB
1 Willie McCovey 248
2 Jeff Bagwell 155
3 Todd Helton 146
4 Orlando Cepeda 130
5 Keith Hernandez 127
6 Mark Grace 115
7 Will Clark 112
8 Steve Garvey 108
9 Andres Galarraga 105
10 Fred McGriff 99
ISOLATED POWER ISO
1 Todd Helton .261
2 Johnny Mize .258
3 Willie McCovey .244
4 Jeff Bagwell .244
5 Fred McGriff .227
6 Dolph Camilli .220
7 Gil Hodges .215
8 Andres Galarraga .211
9 Orlando Cepeda .209
10 Will Clark .204
OBA OBA
1 Todd Helton .432
2 Dan Brouthers .418
3 Jeff Bagwell .408
4 Johnny Mize .405
5 Roger Connor .397
6 Cap Anson .397
7 Bill Terry .393
8 Dolph Camilli .390
9 Keith Hernandez .386
10 Elbie Fletcher .384
OPS OPS
1 Todd Helton 1.027
2 Johnny Mize .983
3 Jeff Bagwell .948
4 Dan Brouthers .942
5 Bill Terry .899
6 Willie McCovey .893
7 Dolph Camilli .890
8 Roger Connor .885
9 Fred McGriff .882
10 Will Clark .880
OWP OWP
1 Dan Brouthers .772
2 Johnny Mize .759
3 Roger Connor .717
4 Will Clark .705
5 Jeff Bagwell .704
6 Willie McCovey .702
7 Todd Helton .689
8 Cap Anson .677
9 Bill Terry .674
10 Dolph Camilli .671
RBI RBI
1 Cap Anson 1748
2 Jeff Bagwell 1529
3 Jake Beckley 1455
4 Andres Galarraga 1389
5 Willie McCovey 1345
6 Jim Bottomley 1315
7 Gil Hodges 1267
8 Steve Garvey 1246
9 Johnny Mize 1158
10 Orlando Cepeda 1150
RCAA RCAA
1 Dan Brouthers 789
2 Jeff Bagwell 680
3 Roger Connor 667
4 Cap Anson 659
5 Johnny Mize 638
6 Willie McCovey 536
7 Todd Helton 465
8 Bill Terry 425
9 Stan Musial 399
10 Keith Hernandez 371
RUNS R
1 Cap Anson 1549
2 Jeff Bagwell 1517
3 Jake Beckley 1491
4 Roger Connor 1336
5 Dan Brouthers 1229
6 Mark Grace 1179
7 Andres Galarraga 1161
8 Fred Tenney 1156
9 Bill Terry 1120
T10 Jake Daubert 1117
T10 Keith Hernandez 1117
RUNS CREATED RC
1 Cap Anson 2047
2 Jeff Bagwell 1768
3 Roger Connor 1725
4 Jake Beckley 1685
5 Dan Brouthers 1652
6 Willie McCovey 1403
7 Mark Grace 1392
8 Johnny Mize 1372
9 Andres Galarraga 1338
10 Todd Helton 1306
RUNS CREATED/GAME RC/G
1 Dan Brouthers 11.84
2 Roger Connor 10.04
3 Todd Helton 9.96
4 Johnny Mize 9.51
5 Cap Anson 9.50
6 Jeff Bagwell 8.11
7 Dolph Camilli 7.71
8 Bill Terry 7.65
9 Willie McCovey 7.08
10 Will Clark 7.08
SECONDARY AVERAGE SEC
1 Jeff Bagwell .449
2 Todd Helton .439
3 Willie McCovey .418
4 Dolph Camilli .408
5 Johnny Mize .400
6 Fred McGriff .372
7 Gil Hodges .357
8 Roger Connor .342
9 Will Clark .334
10 Dan Brouthers .332
SLG SLG
1 Todd Helton .595
2 Johnny Mize .577
3 Jeff Bagwell .540
4 Dan Brouthers .524
5 Willie McCovey .515
6 Fred McGriff .512
7 Orlando Cepeda .508
8 Bill Terry .506
9 Jim Bottomley .505
10 Will Clark .505
Whether or not Bagwell is the best, he's in some select company.
Recently an ESPN Sportsnation poll stated that approximately 83% of respondents do not believe Tim Raines was a Hall of Fame caliber player. This is extremely unfortunately. Tim Raines was not only a Hall of Famer, but if left out he would clearly stand as the most deserving player left out. On statistics alone, he rates higher than Mark McGwire. In making this argument I am going to attempt to avoid bogging down the argument with too many sabermetrics. Runs Created Above Average and WARP3 might view Raines as deserving, but they are not going to convince the casual fan. My goal is to convince the casual baseball fan that Raines deserves the Hall.
Tim Raines' stat line is not convincing at first glance. A .385 On Base Percentage is good but not among the greats. .425 is quite pedestrian for a slugging percentage. Delving into Raines' value requires more work. Start with his stolen bases (808, 5th all time). The four players with more steals are all in the Hall, and Vince Coleman is the only non-Hall of Famer among the top ten. Of those ten, Raines was caught stealing the least, only 146 times. In fact, Raines' stolen base percentage of 84% is the greatest stolen base percentage of all time. Raines reached base almost 4,000 times in his career, good for 38th all time. When he did reach base, which was often, he was absolute terror on the basepaths. He's 46th all time in runs scored. 32nd in walks.
Tim Raines vs. Jim Rice
Jim Rice seems like an inexplicable Hall candidate. Let's compare the two. Raines played in over 400 more games, collecting more runs, hits, doubles, triples, steals, walks, and less strikeouts and double plays. Those are counting statistics so maybe that is unfair. Raines' OBP is 33 points higher. Rice played in eight All-Star games, Raines played in seven. Rice played left field and DH'ed in Fenway Park, while Raines played left field in Stade Olympique.
But Rice's argument is all about peak. In 1978 Rice won the MVP award, hitting .315 with 46 home runs and 139 RBIs. That is impressive. Compare that with Raines in 1987. Raines hit .330, had a .429 OBP (59 points higher than Rice), walked 90 times, hit 18 home runs, scored 123 runs, and stole 50 bases in 55 tries. Rice was a feared hitter? Raines was intentionally walked 26 times, 14 out of the leadoff slot. In fact, Raines was intentionally walked more than 10 times in a season four times. Rice was intentionally walked ten times in his best season. What all this indicates to me is that managers saw Rice as a power threat, but one they could beat. Raines? No way. (In fact, Raines' prolific on base tendencies earned Tim Wallach 123 RBIs and a 4th place MVP finish.)
Tim Raines vs. Lou Brock
Brock is seen as a good Hall of Famer. 3,000 hits, held the record for stolen bases until Rickey Henderson. Draw up the list, and Raines is clearly a superior player. Raines stole 130 less bases, but was caught 161 less times. Raines had a higher batting average, higher slugging percentage, and a MUCH higher on base percentage. Raines had 400 less hits but over 500 more walks. More impressively, Raines actually appeared in more All-Star games.
Win Shares
Skip this part if you don't believe in the stat at all, but you may find this enlightening. Tim Raines has 390 career win shares. Every player with 400+ win shares is in the Hall of Fame. Two players with more win shares than Raines are out. One is Tony Mullane, who racked up wins pitching in the inferior American Association in the 1880s. The other is Bill Dahlen, an unheralded infielder of the turn of the century. There are 70 players with more than 363 win shares, and all but two who are eligible are in. That's rare company, and Raines is smack in the middle of it.
I hope if you were unconvinced, you are now. If not, I'd like to hear from you.
As some of you might know, I have a side engagement scoring baseball games for a company called Baseball Info Solutions. I score occasional games in Scranton, mark hit locations and trajectories, and send them in via computer afterwards. I get to watch the game from a good vantage point for free and I get some money on the side. This is my third year. The first two years Scranton was the AAA affiliate of the Philadelphia Phillies. This year however Scranton is now the affiliate of the New York Yankees. The transition of teams comes with higher attendance, as there is simply more interest in this region for the Yankees.
* I joke that Yankee fans are obnoxious. Some are, some are not. Honestly, you get unbearable dopes in nearly every large baseball crowd. This game, four guys sat two rows behind me, consumed large amounts of alcohol and proceeded to make a show of themselves heckling the players. ALL game. It really gets on your nerves after a while. There's no respite.
* The weather is absolutely brutal. Game time temperature was 35 degrees, easily the coldest professional game I have ever attended. You can stand that kind of weather if you dress for it, which I did. After three hours though, the cold digs into you. It snowed about three times during the game, never sticking to the ground but creating a nuisance. The wind picked up at times, and in the configuration of the stadium it swirls.
* Even though I watch a lot of games, my scouting eye is not discerning enough to reveal much more than the statistics. I can tell you that Garrett Olson at one point retired seven straight batters on fly balls. Olson is just 23 and has struck out over a batter an inning in the minors while walking 70 and giving up just 13 home runs in 220 career innings. In my view, he is one of the unheralded pitching prospects in baseball.
* Something was missing overall. My enthusiasm just wasn't there for this game, and I wasn't sure if it was the loudmouths, the team or the weather. There are few legit prospects on the Yankees' farm club behind the rotation, and the Norfolk Tide had even less. I want to do less AAA games this year and maybe hit some other local teams (Harrisburg, Reading, Sussex County, etc.).
