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EVIL~! alkeiper

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  1. EVIL~! alkeiper
    About a month into the season, it's a good time to see how the kids are doing in the minors. Rankings are the preseason rankings courtesy of Baseball America. The letters in parenthesis refer to the league. They run in the following order, from highest to lowest.
     
    AAA: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, International League
    AA: Reading, Eastern League
    A+: Clearwater, Florida State League
    A: Lakewood, South Atlantic League
    Short Season A: Batavia, New York-Penn League
    Rookie: GCL Phillies, Gulf Coast League
     
    1. Cole Hamels, SP (Age 22)
    1-1, 1.77 ERA, 20 1/3 IP, 16 H, 4 ER, 0 HR, 9 BB, 29 Ks (A+)
    1-0, 0.00 ERA, 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 14 Ks (AAA)
     
    Hamels earned a call to Scranton after a good start in Clearwater, and absolutely steamrolled the Norfolk Tide in his first start. As long as he stays healthy, he is a premium talent.
     
    2. Gio Gonzalez, SP (Age 20)
    1-1, 1.48 ERA, 24 1/3 IP, 15 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 8 BB, 28 Ks (AA)
     
    Gonzalez is a lefty on the short side of 6' tall. The usual concerns from scouts are the only mark on his report. His first four starts in AA are about as good as you can get from a 20 year old pitcher. He's bound to have a rough start here and there to drive back his rate stats, but early returns are outstanding. Gonzalez is close to breaking onto Top 50 prospect lists.
     
    3. Greg Golson, OF (Age 20)
    .159/.209/.206, 1 HR, 2 RBIs, 1 SB (A)
     
    63 at bats, one extra base hit. As Baseball Prospectus noted, "it would be nice if his performance bore the slightest resemblance to what the tools watchers say he can do." Maybe Golson has upside. But there is no way he deserves the number three ranking in the organization, no matter how thin it is. It is still early, but if I do not see results at the end of the year, I am writing him off.
     
    4. Michael Bourn, OF (Age 23)
    .230/.269/.324, 0 HR, 4 RBIs, 9 SB (AA)
     
    Bourn's batting line includes three triples, and he has yet to be caught stealing. Bourn is an extremely fast runner with excellent plate discipline. The problem is that he has very little power, and pitchers are not apt to pitch around him when he will not drive the ball. That negates his ability to get on base. Bourn posted an acceptable .348 OBP last season, but that will not propel him to star status. Bourn is good defensively with a great arm, so at minimum he can provide a team with a 5th outfielder.
     
    5. Scott Mathieson, SP (Age 22)
    1-1, 4.26 ERA, 25 1/3 IP, 24 H, 12 ER, 2 HR, 6 BB, 30 Ks (AA)
     
    That K:BB ratio is extremely good, and he does not allow an unusual number of home runs. Allowing twelve runs is more bad luck than anything else. Mathieson's carried this kind of stat line his entire career however. There are several who think Mathieson's future is as a power closer. Since he carried his ratios to AA, he at least has a future somewhere.
     
    6. Daniel Haigwood, SP (Age 22)
    1-1, 2.61 ERA, 20 2/3 IP, 17 H, 6 ER, 0 HR, 17 BB, 17 Ks (AA)
     
    Seventeen walks?! Ouch. Haigwood's other numbers are very good, but that is a serious red flag. It could be a sample size issue, or an indication of something lurking underneath. We need more data here.
     
    7. Welinson Baez, 3B/SS (Age 21)
    .250/.241/.393, 1 HR, 8 RBIs, 0 SB (A)
     
    Yes, Baez's on base percentage is lower than his batting average. He has not drawn a walk in 56 at bats, while striking out 16 times. Baez has tools and had a great year last year after three shots at the Gulf Coast League. I am pessimistic at this point. Baez was a league repeater and lacks plate discipline. He's still got time though.
     
    8. Mike Costanzo, 3B (Age 22)
    .263/.310/.450, 3 HRs, 12 RBIs, 0 SB (A+)
     
    Costanzo's numbers are slightly low, but given that it is less than a month in and the Florida State League is a tough hitters' league, it is not a serious problem just yet. Costanzo led Division I baseball in walks last year, so I do not think his plate discipline is an issue.
     
    9. Brad Harman, SS/2B (Age 20)
    .217/.286/.261, 0 HRs, 6 RBIs, 2 SBs (A+)
     
    Harman had a great series in the World Baseball Classic for Australia, but has struggled mightily in the Florida State League. The walks are there, I think this is just a case of a slow start.
     
    10. Jason Jaramillo, C (Age 23)
    .250/.328/.385, 0 HR, 5 RBIs, 0 SB (AA)
     
    The Phillies' Great White Hope behind the plate. The Phils' skipped a level for Jaramillo, and he's held his own so far in Reading. Considering his primary asset is his defense, this is certainly encouraging.
  2. EVIL~! alkeiper
    Mike & Mike this morning discussed pitching candidates for the Hall of Fame. I figured I'd throw in my two cents.
     
    Shoe Ins
    Roger Clemens
    Greg Maddux
    Randy Johnson
    Tom Glavine
    Pedro Martinez
     
    Tom Glavine is often labeled as a guy who is close, but in. He's a dead lock, and it is not even close. Glavine as of this writing has 286 wins. Of the 30 pitchers who have won 275 or more games, 22 are in the Hall, three are still active, and two were 19th century pitchers. That leaves Bert Blyleven, Tommy John and Jim Kaat. Let's stack up the numbers.
     
    Glavine: 286-186 (.606), 3.44 ERA, 120 ERA+
    Blyleven: 287-250 (.534), 3.31 ERA, 118 ERA+
    Kaat: 283-237 (.544), 3.45 ERA, 107 ERA+
    John: 288-231 (.555), 3.34 ERA, 111 ERA+
     
    Two things should come out right away. The first is that Glavine's win percentage is over .600. There is simply no precident for leaving out a pitcher with this many wins AND this high a winning percentage. Also note that Blyleven, who pitched effectively as long, posted nearly as good an earned run average in context.
     
    Pedro Martinez has 204 wins right now. Compare his record to pitchers let in with few wins. The Black Ink Test is a tool that measures how often a player led his league in something. It's a good tool both for measuring players with high peaks, and players from different eras. The average Hall of Fame pitcher has a Black Ink score of 40.
     
    Pedro Martinez: 204-88 (.697), 2.75 ERA, 166 ERA+, Black Ink: 55
    Jack Chesbro: 198-132 (.600), 2.68 ERA, 110 ERA+, Black Ink: 27
    Dizzy Dean: 150-83 (.644), 3.02 ERA, 130 ERA+, Black Ink: 52
    Lefty Gomez: 189-102 (.649), 3.34 ERA, 125 ERA+, Black Ink: 46
    Addie Joss: 160-97 (.623), 1.89 ERA, 142 ERA+, Black Ink: 19
    Sandy Koufax: 165-87 (.655), 2.76 ERA, 131 ERA+, Black Ink: 78
    Dazzy Vance: 197-140 (.585), 3.24 ERA, 125 ERA+, Black Ink: 66
    Rube Waddell: 193-143 (.574), 2.16 ERA, 134 ERA+, Black Ink: 46
    Ed Walsh: 195-126 (.607), 1.82 ERA, 145 ERA+, Black Ink: 67
     
    All of the above players scored high on the Black Ink test except for Jack Chesbro and Addie Joss. Chesbro won 41 games in 1904, and is essentially in the Hall on that statistic alone. Addie Joss's raw numbers are eye popping, but he was never the best pitcher in the league. Pedro Martinez stacks up favorably with all these players, and his winning percentage and ERA+ are better than any pitcher on the list. In fact, Pedro's ERA+ ranks number one all time, and his winning percentage is second behind Al Spalding among HOF pitchers (And Spalding pitched most of his career in the National Association, which MLB does not recognize in official statistics).
     
    On the Bubble
    Mike Mussina
    Curt Schilling
    John Smoltz
     
    These pitchers are harder to judge, and even I am not certain of their Hall of Fame qualifications. Mussina's going to have a tricky time because he never won 20 games, and we know voters love those big round numbers. Mussina's won 19 games twice, 19 three times, and 17 twice. One problem is that Mussina's best years were 1994-95, when he missed several starts due to the strike. It is not difficult to think Mussina would have won four games between August 12 and the end of the 1994 season, and just one more game in four starts in 1995. He led the league in wins in 1995.
     
    If you look at Mussina's record, again you see a superior win/loss percentage (.643 in this case). Let's make a comparison for Mussina here. Eleven pitchers have won 225 or more games, not made the Hall, and pitched after 1900 (not counting active players). I will not add another table because frankly, most readers have not heard some of these names. As a group, they had winning percentages between .491 and .577. Their adjusted ERAs ranged from 101 to 118. They scored between 7 and 20 on the Black Ink test.
     
    Mussina blasts them out of the water in win percentage and adjusted ERA. His record there is superior to any pitcher not in the Hall of Fame. The Black Ink test is trickier, because Mussina only scores a 14. But if you move on to the Gray Ink test (which measures top ten appearances instead of just leading a category), Mussina stands out. Only Bert Blyleven beats Mussina in that category, and Blyleven really should be in the Hall as well. Mussina does not have that one outstanding season. But he's clearly superior to any fringe candidate.
     
    Curt Schilling is the opposite. Not great counting numbers, but some tremendous seasons. Just for fun, here's Schilling next to another current pitcher
     
    Curt Schilling: 202-134
    Kenny Rogers: 201-134
     
    Of course Schilling's ERA is nearly a run lower and he has about a thousand more strikeouts. What makes Schilling odd is that he also never won a Cy Young award, which you would think is a prerequisite for making the Hall on a short career. I think Schilling's a deserving candidate though, as he scores favorably on all the Hall of Fame standards tests. If he finishes his career with 220-225 wins with his current win percentage, he should be a lock.
     
    There's no really good statistical judge for John Smoltz. Dennis Eckersley reshaped the closers' role. Smoltz was just a closer for a few years. Obviously he was a great closer and deserves some credit for that, but how much? A closer is not as valuable as a 20 win pitcher, and probably not as valuable as a 15 win pitcher. What about 12 wins? Add 36 wins to his total, give him credit for the 15 wins in the postseason, and he's up to around 233 wins. I would not vote for Smoltz just let, but if he reaches 200 wins, then you have a guy who also has 154 saves and an amazing 15-4 record in the postseason. It's hard to go against that.
     
    Others
     
    It is difficult to predict the future of pitchers. Among the top 100 active pitchers in wins, only Andy Pettitte has a legitimate shot at the Hall. There are many pitchers in the sub 100 win club who could make a run, noteably Johan Santana. The problem is there is little difference in the peak values of great pitchers and good pitchers. The difference is how long they last. Many pitchers like Fernando Valenzuela had great peaks, but only had a few great years. Some guys look like HOFers at age 30 and are gone by age 33. But even if you can not identify a single Hall of Famer or even a 300 game winner in the current generation, chances are someone will outlast the pack.
     
    I'll take a look at HOF closers in the future.
  3. EVIL~! alkeiper
    Top Five Reasons You Can't Blame the Fans for Messing Up the All-Star Voting.
     
    1. They're hitting a moving target.
     
    MLB started their All-Star balloting sometime in late April. At the end of April, Victor Martinez held a gaudy .398 batting average, while A.J. Pierzynski had a .342 average. Joe Mauer had a good .319 average, but not spectacular. How were voters to know that Mauer would hit .388 over his next two months? Most fans evaulate All-Star selections based on their first halves. Well, the player with the best season statistics often change two or three times over the course of the voting. The All-Star voting is not a scientific survey conducted at that instance of the season. It is a two month process.
     
    2. The media/players/coaches are no better.
     
    Last year, a survey of managers and coaches selected Bobby Abreu as one of the three winners of the National League Gold Glove. In 2003, a select group of National media, refusing to yield to Alex Rodriguez, seriously floated the idea of Shannon Stewart, Most Valuable Player. You want to give the vote to these guys? What about the players, who given a choice to select reserve All-Stars, selected Shea Hillenbrand? The fact is that no matter what group you select as your voting population, you are going to have problems. At least when the fans make a bad pick, it is someone they want to see play ball.
     
    3. The process leads to mistakes.
     
    This is an absolutely key point, and it escapes critics all the time. Let's take a look at the American League voting. Fans are complaining that most of the players are either Yankees or Red Sox. The problem is not that the fans are all Red Sox or Yankee fanboys. The problem is the voting process coupled with either a plethora or lack of qualified All-Star candidates. As of the last voting, six of the eight leading starters were Yankees or Red Sox. Derek Jeter (SS), Alex Rodriguez (3B), Manny Ramirez (OF) and David Ortiz (1B) are perfectly reasonable choices. That leaves Robinson Cano (2B) and Jason Varitek ©. Let's look at those one at a time, because they illustrate the opposite points.
     
    Jason Varitek, C
     
    There are several good catchers in the American League. Varitek's production has declined, but he was an All-Star for the last few years. Jorge Posada's produced an .889 OPS this season. Ramon Hernandez leads A.L. catchers in home runs and RBIs. Victor Martinez was the best hitting catcher over the last two seasons, and he has not exactly fallen off the face of the earth this season. Now, you have a couple groups of smart fans. One will vote for "reliable stars," the other will vote for players with the best current statistics. Then you have the fans who goof around with the process.
     
    Now hypothetically, let's say 70% of your fans are smart, 25% are clueless, and 5% are those who vote for players because Tigers sound cute and cuddly. The problem is that the 70% of smart fans have to vote for one player. They can not hedge their votes and list Mauer first, Martinez second, etc., like an MVP voter can. So if you have several good candidates at a position, a player who has broad appeal to a limited group, in this case a big name like Varitek, he will invariably float to the top of the All-Star ballot.
     
    Robinson Cano, 2B
     
    Same scenario, different specifics. In this case, you have smart voters choosing from several mediocre players to try and find the most deserving player. In this case it appears to be Seattle's Jose Lopez, but it takes a couple months for a player like that to emerge in the statistics, let alone the fans' consciousness.
     
    4. Do the Math.
     
    Catcher
    1. Jason Varitek, Red Sox 831,154
    2. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers 803,964
    3. Jorge Posada, Yankees 608,670
    4. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox 493,385
    5. Joe Mauer, Twins 464,161
     
    That's 3.2 Million votes among ONLY the top five. There is somewhere in the vicinity of five million votes total. That means Jason Varitek was selected by approximately 16% of voters, about 1/6th. How can you chastise the voters for selecting the wrong player when 5/6ths of voters did not even select him?
     
    5. Most Voters do not have access to current statistics.
     
    Go to the ballpark. Pick up a conveniently located All-Star ballot. You are a knowledgeable voter, you are not like those nitwits that pick all Yankees. But what do you have to go on? There's no listing of current statistics. You have names and a vauge recollection of what you saw in Sunday's paper, or Sportscenter highlights. Even smart fans are bound to make a funny choice or two under those conditions.
     
    Many people cite ballots such as one listing say, Bernie Williams. Those ballots do not make a difference, and fans are for the most part wasting their vote. Fans do stuff ballots for their favorite teams, but fans from every city do this, and the votes often cancel each other out. On the occasions they don't, they are at least selecting players from popular teams. There are some problems with that I admit, but we have to face the fact that part of being an All-Star is name recognition.
     
    You could give the voters a ballot that lists one through five and give them a complete printout of current statistics. We could give the voting to a select group of SABR's elite and let them debate in a dark chamber. But what would it improve? The current process selects the right players about 70% of the time, and the other selections are at least players the fans want to see. Some purists may scoff at that, but we need to remember that the All-Star game is an EXHIBITION, and it is for the fans.
     
    Comments, questions, criticisms are welcome.
  4. EVIL~! alkeiper
    Over the last few seasons the Phillies have developed into a perennial contender. From two consecutive 90+ loss seasons in 1996-97, the Phillies improved to an average win total of 85 wins the last five seasons. Despite the growth however, fans grew restless over the lack of a playoff berth. So the Phillies' upper brass did the only reasonable thing. Fire the general manager. Surely a proven baseball man like Pat Gillick would lead the Phillies to a division title, right? Well, sixty-eight games into the season, the Phillies' record stands at 33-35. The Phils have developed mediocracy before, but the Mets' hot streak has landed the Phils 9.5 games out, and seemingly on the brink. So what's gone wrong so far?
     
    HITTING: The Phillies currently rank sixth in the National League in runs scored. This is not normally a poor result, but Citizens Bank Park inflates run scoring. The exact degree of inflation I am unsure of, but it is reasonable to call the offense about average. Looking at run production from each position in the lineup, here's where the Phillies rank by OPS (the sum of On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage).
     
    C: .625 (14th)
    1B: .912 (5th)
    2B: .871 (1st)
    SS: .718 (10th)
    3B: .666 (15th)
    LF: .909 (6th)
    CF: .850 (2nd)
    RF: .931 (2nd)
    DH: Have not played a DH game
    PH: .521 (16th)
     
    Production at second base (Chase Utley), center field (Aaron Rowand and Shane Victorino) and right field (Bobby Abreu) has been excellent. Production from left field (Pat Burrell) and first base (Ryan Howard is good to very good). Production from shortstop (Jimmy Rollins) is fair.
     
    Catcher and third base are the big problems. At catcher we have seen 39 games from Sal Fasano, 25 games from Mike Lieberthal, 14 from Carlos Ruiz, and 4 from Chris Coste. Fasano's production has been surprisingly passable, with a .321 On Base Percentage and .433 slugging percentage. I was honestly expecting to rip Fasano's offense, but it's good. Lieberthal hit poorly, but I expect his averages would improve given time. Carlos Ruiz's 5 for 35 performance and Coste's 2 for 13 drag down the percentages here.
     
    David Bell has gotten the bulk of the playing time at third, and has produced a decent OBP (.335) but only a .383 slugging percentage. That's a bad sign from a righty at Citizens Bank Park. The average at third is dragged by Abraham Nunez hitting .139 in 36 at bats.
     
    That brings us to the pinch hitting. The Phillies rank dead last in the National League in OPS, and given that pinch hitters are often used in key spots in the game, that's an awful mark. David Dellucci is 10 for 37 off the bench, with 4 doubles, 2 triples and a homer. That's quite a few extra base hits, good for a .568 slugging percentage. The rest of the bench has been awful. Abraham Nunez is 3 for 29 off the bench, with one walk. That's 26 outs in 30 plate appearances. Alex S. Gonzalez was 2 for 13 before his retirement. Shane Victorino went 5 for 20, all singles. Nine more batters have combined for a 1 for 20 performance as pinch hitters, the lone mark being a solo home run from Ryan Howard.
     
    The big problem for the Phillies' offense is situational hitting. The Phillies are 15th in the league in batting average with runners in scoring position, 15th in the league. There's little that can be done for that except wait. The Phils do need to add punch to their bench. David Dellucci is a platoon hitter and opposing teams are frequently able to outmanuever Charlie Manuel and bring in their situational lefties.
     
    PITCHING: In short, the rotation has been awful and the bullpen is sensational. The Phillies' starters have compiled a 5.53 ERA, by far the worst in the league. The bullpen on the other hand has produced a 3.18 mark, best in the league. If only they ever got a lead to work with. Eude Brito and Gavin Floyd were awful in their stints, and have landed in AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Both walked far too many batters. Ryan Madson, thought to be a rotation prospect, crashed in his rotation try yet remains there due to a lack of other starters. Jon Lieber's awful numbers are the product of a bad April. He's since recovered, but his trip to the DL has forced the Phils to use subpar starters in his absence. Cole Hamels was supposed to provide some help, but he's walked 14 batters in 25 innings and failed to make it past the third inning in his last start. Brett Myers is the staff ace but even he got shelled his last two starts.
     
    The bullpen meanwhile has been outstanding thanks to strong performances by Tom Gordon, Rheal Cormier and Geoff Geary. The other relievers have contributed, and only Brian Sanches and Julio Santana have ERAs below the league average. Both of those pitchers have pitched few innings. Call me crazy, but it is time Ryan Franklin got a rotation spot. The idea of having Franklin was to have some rotation depth. Well guess what. The rotation sucks. Franklin might be a bad pitcher, but there's no way he can make this abomination any worse. Get him in there and try to hold out until Randy Wolf comes back. I know managers hate to mess with the bullpen, but they aren't handing out booby prizes for holding onto four run deficits.
     
    FIELDING: The Fielding Bible rated the Phillies as having the majors' best defense. Given the strong uniform performance of the Phils' bullpen despite average peripherals, I would buy that. The Phils surprisingly are middle of the pack in stolen base percentage. They have only allowed 11 steals all season.
     
    The problem with the Phillies is their awful rotation. Scott Mathieson performed well in a spot start, but I doubt he is a long term solution this season. If the Phillies want to make a realistic run, they need to add a starting pitcher. Whether the cost is worth making a run this season or holding off for a future season with their farm club is up for debate. There is almost no hitting in the system, meaning a trade would likely be pitcher for pitcher. It is easy to trade away the very solution to your problem in that manner. Patience is difficult, but it is probably best for the Phillies to try Ryan Franklin, Randy Wolf, Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez to shore up the rotation. If it fails, look for serious pitching help in the offseason.
  5. EVIL~! alkeiper
    My friends regard me as a baseball nut, and for the most part that is true. Name any year, and I can tell you who played in that World Series off the top of my head. Further along however, I fall flat. Ask me who won the National League West in 1979, and I might not remember. Major League Baseball expanded its playoff format in 1969, adding a League Championship series. Most of us remember the great World Series, as they are prevailent, produced on dvd. The LCS however sometimes fades into oblivion. Unless your local team was involved in a memorable series, you may not ever hear about it. Certainly, ESPN Classic's insistance on never showing complete baseball games means some absolute classics are forgotten. Hopefully, this will begin a series of articles about those series. I intend to relive those series, as well as the losing teams involved.
     
    1980 National League Championship Series
    Best of Five
     
    1980 Houston Astros
     
    The Houston Astros (then known as the Colt 45s) began as an expansion team in the 1962 season. The 'Stros amased a fine collection of talent over the years such as Joe Morgan, Jimmy Wynn, Larry Dierker and Don Wilson, but could not quite make it to the top of the National League West. Sharing a division with the Big Red Machine will do that. The Astros of course played their home games in the Houston Astrodome. Fans know about the dome and artificial turf, but relatively few fans realize how tough a hitters' park the Dome was. Astros' hitters were perenially underrated, and some pitchers were overrated. The Astros finally broke through in 1980, as we will see.
     
    The Lineup
    C: Alan Ashby (.256/.319/.347, 93 OPS+)
    1B: Art Howe (.283/.350/.445, 129 OPS+)
    2B: Joe Morgan (.243/.367/.373, 115 OPS+)
    SS: Craig Reynolds (.226/.262/.304, 64 OPS+)
    3B: Enos Cabell (.276/.305/.351, 90 OPS+)
    LF: Jose Cruz Sr. (.302/.360/.426, 128 OPS+)
    CF: Cesar Cedeno (.309/.389/.465, 147 OPS+)
    RF: Terry Puhl (.282/.357/.419, 124 OPS+)
     
    A few interesting players here. Any of the three outfielders could play center, and Terry Puhl in fact did play 30 games in center that season. Jose Cruz is perhaps one of the most underrated players in baseball history. Cruz hit 106 home runs on the road, but only 59 at home. Playing in the Astrodome most of his career cost him perhaps 50 home runs over the years. Cruz certainly deserved more than two All-Star nods. He is not quite a Hall of Fame caliber player, but he's better than Jim Rice, for example.
     
    Cesar Cedeno could be a Hall of Famer. He was a better player than many center fielders currently in the Hall, and might well have been had he not decended rapidly after age 30. Cedeno still played over 2,000 games thanks to an early start, and finished his career with 550 stolen bases.
     
    Joe Morgan left the Cincinnati Reds after the 1979 season, returning to the team that originally drafted him. Morgan remained one of the most disciplined hitters in the game, drawing 93 walks and stealing 24 bases in 1980. Despite a .243 batting average he was one of the more productive second basemen in the league, even at the age of 36.
     
    Enos Cabell on the other hand rated as the player most often criticized by young baseball author Bill James. Cabell hit .276 on the season, at a glimpse an acceptable average. But then you dig in the stat sheet and see a meager 26 walks, almost no power, and he was caught stealing 13 times against 21 successes.
     
    Craig Reynolds' hitting stats are appaling, but it was common for teams in that era to play unproductive hitters at short, preferring defense. Frank Taveras (Mets, 80 OPS+), Larry Bowa (Phillies, 70 OPS+), Tim Foli (Pirates, 73 OPS+), Luis Gomez (Braves, 26 OPS+), Johnnie LeMaster (Giants, 59 OPS+), and Ozzie Smith (Padres, 71 OPS+) comprised some of the league's starting shortstops. When you remember the Padres' trade of Ozzie to the Cardinals for Garry Templeton, consider that Templeton was the only starting shortstop in the league to hit above the league average in 1980.
     
    Ashby of course starred as an announcer for the Astros for several years, and Art Howe went on to become a successful manager in the majors.
     
    The Rotation
    Joe Niekro (20-12, 3.55 ERA, 92 ERA+)
    Nolan Ryan (11-10, 3.35 ERA, 98 ERA+)
    Ken Forsch (12-13, 3.20 ERA, 103 ERA+)
    Vern Ruhle (12-4, 2.37 ERA, 138 ERA+)
    J.R. Richard (10-4, 1.90 ERA, 173 ERA+)
    Joaquin Andujar (3-8, 3.91 ERA, 84 ERA+)
     
    Joe Niekro was in the midst of a late career surge, posting his second consecutive 20 win season. Given his stellar record and the fact that he was a knuckleballer, I think Niekro's mediocre ERA is the result of staying in games longer than most pitchers when his team had a big lead. That's just a guess. Niekro's son Lance currently plays for the San Francisco Giants.
     
    Nolan Ryan remains the game's most overrated pitcher. For all the flack Bert Blyleven receives about not being a winning pitcher, the same tag could be applied to Nolan Ryan, who had a worse win percentage and lower ERA+. Ryan in 1980 had 14 no decisions, of which his team won 11. He did pitch a large number of innings, as did Niekro.
     
    Vern Ruhle's season was entirely a fluke. He never again won more than nine games in a season, and finished his career with a below average ERA. He did however become a successful pitching coach, first with the Phillies and then with the Astros.
     
    J.R. Richard is one of baseball's most tragic cases. Beginning in 1976, Richard ranked among baseball's best pitchers. Despite surrendering over 100 walks a season, he won 72 games from 1976-79. He found his control in 1979 and posted yet another career year. Richard's first half performance in 1980 netted him his first All-Star appearance, a starting assignment to boot. Unfortunately, Richard suffered a series of bizzare ailments that year. Many fans and reporters thought Richard was a lazy player, and that he was loafing. On July 30, Richard suffered a major stroke, requiring emergency surgery. Richard never pitched in the majors again.
     
    Some other intriguing players on the Astros that season included current Padres' manager Bruce Bochy and long time closer Dave Smith, making his debut season.
     
    The Astros ended the regular season in a tie with the Los Angeles Dodgers, necessitating the first regular season playoff in the National League since 1962. (Oddly, of the seven regular season playoffs in N.L. history, the Dodgers have been in five of them). The Astros had held a three game lead over the Dodgers with three to go. However, those three games happened to be against the Dodgers, in Dodger Stadium. The Astros lost all three games to force the playoff. However, the Astros won the playoff easily, 7-1 behind the pitching of staff ace Joe Niekro.
     
    The NLCS
     
    The first two games took place at Veterans Stadium. The Phillies won game one 3-1, thanks to Greg Luzinski's two run home run in the sixth. Game Two saw the Astros and Phillies go into extra innings tied 3-3. The Astros scored four in the tenth, including Dave Bergman's two run triple. The Phillies had a chance to score a run in the ninth, but Lee Elia held Bake McBride at third base.
     
    Games three through five would be played at the Houston Astrodome. Game Three saw the Astros and Phillies trade zeros through ten innings. Joe Niekro pitched ten scoreless innings, striking out two and walking one. Denny Walling's sacrifice fly scored Rafael Landestoy, winning the game for the 'Stros. Game Four saw the Astros take a 2-0 lead into the eighth inning, but the Phils scored three runs. The Astros tied the game in the ninth, leading the game into extra innings for the third straight time. In the top of the tenth, Pete Rose scored on Greg Luzinski's RBI double, and the Phillies went on to win. Rose famously scored on a close play at the plate, knocking down catcher Bruce Bochy. Rose was widely praised for his aggressiveness. What's forgotten is that Manny Trillo followed up with a double that would've scored Rose anyway. But there were two outs, and no tomorrow.
     
    Game five saw the Astros again take a 5-2 lead into the eighth inning. Phillies down three against Nolan Ryan. In the eighth, Rafael Landestoy replaced Joe Morgan at second base, a defensive manuever the Astros made all series. Larry Bowa led off the inning with a base hit to center field. Bob Boone followed with a hard grounder off Ryan's glove, runners at first and second. Greg Gross reached on a bunt down the third base line, loading the bases. Pete Rose followed with a walk, forcing in a run. At this point, Astros' manager Bill Verdon replaced Ryan with Joe Sambito.
     
    If the Astros made a mistake in the series, this is it. Bowa's hit was the hardest hit ball of the inning. Boone and Gross's hits were both infield shots. Rose walked on a full count. The pitch before ball four, which Bowa fouled out, was clocked at 99 mph. I honestly think Ryan came out too soon. Sambito came in to pitch to left handed Bake McBride, who was pulled for Keith Moreland, a righty. There goes the platoon split. Moreland grounded to second, forcing out Rose but scoring a run. 5-4 Astros, first and third for the Phillies, one out.
     
    Ken Forsch came in to replace Sambito. Mike Schmidt struck out in a key spot, leaving two outs. Del Unser bailed out Schmidt and the team, hitting a single to right that scored the tying run. With runners on first and second, Manny Trillo tripled to left, scoring two runs and giving the Phillies a 7-5 lead.
     
    Bottom of the eighth, the Phils attempted to lock down the game by bringing in Tug McGraw. McGraw however, running on fumes, could not get the job done. Two consecutive RBI singles by Rafael Landestoy and Jose Cruz tied the game yet again.
     
    Top of the tenth, Del Unser doubled and Garry Maddox hit a two out double to plate Unser, giving the Phils the lead. Maddox's double was a simple base hit, but Puhl had to dive for it knowing that if it fell in, the Phils would take the lead. The Astros went in order in the bottom of the tenth to give the Phillies the pennant. Noteable about that last half of the inning was Enos Cabell swinging at ball four and flying out to center field for his trouble.
     
    In that five game series, four game went into extra innings. If you watch the Phillies' broadcast, you note Tim McCarver laughing hysterically as the Phillies win the pennant on Maddox's catch. It was an extremely hard fought series, and the Phillies really felt like they simply survived that game, not just won it. In my mind, it rates as the greatest game in Phillies' history, due to its combination of excitement and importance. The Phils would go on to defeat the Kansas City Royals in six games for their first and only World Series championship.
     
    The Astros again reached the postseason the following season. After taking the first two games from the Dodgers, they lost the next three and the series. They lost to the New York Mets in the 1986 NLCS, puncuated by a 16 inning classic game six. Division series appearances in 1997, '98, '99 and 2001 all resulted in losses, giving the Astros seven consecutive playoff series losses. They finally broke that streak in 2004, and won their first National League pennant in 2005.
  6. EVIL~! alkeiper
    Three Game series, pitting the 1939 New York Yankees against the 1995 Cleveland Indians.
     
    '95 Indians (Charles Nagy) @ '39 Yankees (Monte Pearson)
    '39 Yankees (Atley Donald) @ '95 Indians (Ken Hill)
    '95 Indians (Dennis Martinez) @ '39 Yankees (Red Ruffing) (if necessary)
     
    Game 1
    '95 Indians 12, '39 Yankees 4
     
    The Indians steamrolled Yankee pitching in the first game of the series. Albert Belle hit two home runs and Omar Vizquel and Sandy Alomar added home runs of their own. Belle has now hit seven home runs in the tournament. Charles Nagy pitched seven innings to improve his record to 3-0, while Monte Pearson drops to 0-1.
     
    '95 Indians 10, '39 Yankees 4
     
    The Indians again crushed the Yankees to wrap up a tournament victory. Ken Hill (2-0) pitched two innings for the victory while Atley Donald (2-1) lasted just two innings in the loss. Albert Belle hit his eighth home run.
     
    Tournament MVP: Joe Dimaggio, 1939 Yankees
     
    Dimaggio hit .386 in 44 at bats with a tournament leading 16 RBIs.
     
    Tournament Cy Young: Charles Nagy, '95 Indians
     
    3-0. 1.29 ERA.
  7. EVIL~! alkeiper
    Next round, 16 teams remaining. Each team plays a three game series against one opponent, with the winners advancing. The former team listed in each set gets home field, while the latter team gets home field advantage for the next two games.
     
    1921 New York Giants vs. 1906 Chicago Cubs
     
    '21 Giants 6, '06 Cubs 2
    '06 Cubs 5, '21 Giants 3
    '06 Cubs 5, '21 Giants 0
    1906 Chicago Cubs win series 2-1
     
    1924 Washington Senators vs. 1929 Philadelphia Athletics
     
    '29 Athletics 5, '24 Senators 4
    '29 Athletics 7, '24 Senators 6 (10 Innings)
    1929 Philadelphia Athletics win series 2-0
     
    1962 San Francisco Giants vs. 1953 New York Yankees
     
    '53 Yankees 2, '62 Giants 1
    '62 Giants 6, '53 Yankees 2
    '62 Giants 12, '53 Yankees 5
    1962 San Francisco Giants win series 2-1
     
    1961 New York Yankees vs. 1939 New York Yankees
     
    '39 Yankees 5, '61 Yankees 0
    '39 Yankees 5, '61 Yankees 3
    1939 New York Yankees win series 2-0
     
    1980 Kansas City Royals vs. 1980 Philadelphia Phillies
     
    '80 Royals 4, '80 Phillies 3, 10 Innings
    '80 Royals 8, '80 Phillies 1
    1980 Kansas City Royals win series 2-0
     
    1977 New York Yankees vs. 1975 Cincinnati Reds
     
    '77 Yankees 2, '75 Reds 1
    '75 Reds 5, '77 Yankees 4
    '77 Yankees 7, '75 Reds 3
    1977 New York Yankees win series 2-1
     
    1988 Oakland Athletics vs. 1998 New York Yankees
     
    '88 Athletics 2, '98 Yankees 1, 11 Innings
    '98 Yankees 3, '88 Athletics 2
    '88 Athletics 10, '98 Yankees 1
    1988 Oakland Athletics win series 2-1
     
    2001 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. 1995 Cleveland Indians
     
    '95 Indians 5, '01 Diamondbacks 4
    '95 Indians 2, '01 Diamondbacks 1
    1995 Cleveland Indians win series 2-0
  8. EVIL~! alkeiper
    Bored's recent blog on the 1996 Athletics mentioned the name of Ernie Young, a current mainstay in the minor leagues. His blog got me thinking. I attend Scranton/Wilkes-Barre games regularly, and I see several players who are very good, but lack (or seemingly lack) the ability to play in the Major Leagues. They still provide some value however, and they make minor league games worth watching. Only a handful of the players in AAA are real prospects, after all. I thought I would draw up a list of some of my favorites. The only criteria is that the player should be a AAA veteran, and for the most part a non-prospect.
     
    1. RP Colter Bean, Columbus Clippers.
     
    Free Colter Bean! Bean is a 6'6", side-arming right handed pitcher in the Yankees' organization. Most do not consider Bean a prospect due to his lack of noticeable velocity. He's the kind of pitcher that scouts feel do not adapt to the majors. I regard that as sheer foolishness. Since joining the Clippers in 2003, Bean has compiled a 19-12 record in relief, including a 2.62 ERA and 274 strikeouts in 233 innings. Meanwhile the Yankees sit in the Bronx and wonder why the hell they can not find relievers.
     
    2. OF/1B Jim Rushford, Reading Phillies.
     
    Rushford looked headed to the Northern League before re-signing with the Phillies' organization the last week of March. Unlike Bean, Rushford's failings are pretty apparent. He hits for a high average and has good plate discipline. He does not hit for much power however, only hitting more than 10 home runs once, in 1997. He's a below average right fielder and average first baseman. Most teams do not have a need for that type of player in the majors, but he fits well in the minors.
     
    3. OF Ernie Young, Charlotte Knights
     
    The essential minor league journeyman. Young has hit over 300 home runs between the majors and minors, and won a Gold medal with the 2000 Olympic Baseball team. He could help a major league club in a fifth outfielder's role yet.
     
    4. RP Dan Giese, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Red Barons
     
    Giese retired midway through last season for unspecified reasons. I'm glad to see him back. Giese is pure control out of the bullpen. Last season he walked just one batter in 38 innings. This season Giese has come out firing, striking out 17 batters and walking one in 10 1/3 minor league innings. He's a pitcher that could really surprise people, and could grab a spot in the Phillies' bullpen if it struggles this summer.
     
    5. SP Brandon Duckworth, Indianapolis Indians
     
    At one time Duckworth was a prospect. He compiled a 15-3 record for the Red Barons in 23 starts, including 164 strikeouts in 165 innings, with just 40 walks. Then he fell apart in Philly and hasn't been the same pitcher. He's got a name and face that suggest he shouldn't be that good, so it's fun to watch him when he succeeds.
     
    6. 1B Brad Eldred, Indianapolis Indians
     
    Eldred's plate discipline is abysmal. He struck out 157 times last year while drawing just 35 walks. He struck out 148 times in 2004 while drawing 41 walks. If you gave him 600 ABs in the majors, he would absolutely shatter Adam Dunn's strikeout record. The beauty is though that if he gets ahold of one, he can hit it as far as any player in baseball.
     
    7. C Bobby Estalella, whereabouts unknown.
     
    Estalella, due to injuries, will never get his chance in the majors. He was once a young AAA prospect with power and plate discipline, but now he's on the wrong side of 30. It's a shame because his grandfather was an MLB semi-regular who also never got a fair chance.
  9. EVIL~! alkeiper
    I'm running a greatest teams tournament on Strategic Baseball Simulator, and I figured I would post the results here. I am running the tournament in the same manner of the College World Series. It is extremely unscientific, so take any results with a grain of salt. The tournament consists of four rounds...
     
    Regionals
    Sixteen separate four team brackets. The competition is double-elimination, meaning the losers fall into a second bracket. Teams are eliminated after two losses.
     
    Super Regionals
    Eight brackets of two teams each. Best of three games.
     
    Semifinals
    This is where the competition reaches Omaha in the College version. Again we have two brackets of four teams each, double elimination.
     
    Championship
    Final two teams in a best of three competition.
     
    In order to even things up, I divided the tournament into four eras. 1901-34, 1935-65, 1966-87, and 1988-2005. Each era contains an approximately even number of teams in their talent pool. There have been about 2,100 teams since 1900, and each era contains about 550. (This is the kind of stuff you do to pass time in a boring class). Here are the entrants.
     
    '14 BosN @ '06 ChC
    '34 StL @ '32 NYY
     
    '06 Cubs 3, '14 Braves 2
    '34 Cardinals 5, '32 Yankees 1
     
    '19 Cin @ '21 NYG
    '35 ChC @ '12 BosA
     
    '21 Giants 14, '19 Reds 5
    '35 Cubs 3, '12 Red Sox 0
     
    '19 CWS @ '29 PhA
    '07 Det @ '27 NYY
     
    '19 White Sox 8, '29 Athletics 3
    '27 Yankees 8, '07 Tigers 6
     
    '09 Pit @ '12 NYG
    '24 Was @ '11 PhA
     
    '12 Giants 9, '09 Pirates 6
    '24 Senators 9, '11 Athletics 4
     
    '50 Phi @ '53 NYY
    '57 Mil @ '54 Cle
     
    '53 Yankees 2, '50 Phillies 1
    '57 Braves 4, '54 Indians 0
     
    '62 SF @ '55 Brk
    '41 Brk @ '46 StL
     
    '62 Giants 10, '55 Dodgers 6
    '41 Dodgers 10, '46 Cardinals 8
     
    '65 Min @ '61 NYY
    '46 Bos @ '63 LAD
     
    '61 Yankees 7, '65 Twins 5
    '63 Dodgers 3, '46 Red Sox 0
     
    '35 Det @ '40 Cin
    '59 CWS @ '39 NYY
     
    '40 Reds 3, '35 Tigers 1
    '39 Yankees 10, '59 White Sox 5
     
    I'm taking a break from the games for a moment to briefly discuss the managers. Several managers have two teams in the tournament. Walter Alston manages three teams, the '55, '63 and '74 Dodgers. Here are the other multi-team managers.
     
    Sparky Anderson ('75 Reds, '84 Tigers)
    Bobby Cox ('92 Braves, '98 Braves)
    Alvin Dark ('62 Giants, '74 Athletics)
    Tony LaRussa ('88 Athletics, 2004 Cardinals)
    Al Lopez ('54 Indians, '59 White Sox)
    Connie Mack ('11 Athletics, '29 Athletics)
    Joe McCarthy ('32 Yankees, '39 Yankees)
    John McGraw ('12 Giants, '21 Giants)
    Joe Torre ('98 Yankees, 2003 Yankees)
     
    Top managers in career wins who are not represented.
     
    1. Gene Mauch
    2. Tommy Lasorda
    3. Clark Griffith
    4. Jimmie Dykes
    5. Wilbert Robinson
     
    '67 Bos @ '74 Oak
    '84 Det @ '80 KC
     
    '74 Athletics 4, '67 Red Sox 3, 12 Innings
    '80 Royals 5, '84 Tigers 1
     
    '69 NYM @ '80 Phi
    '85 StL @ '70 Balt
     
    '69 Mets 4, '80 Phillies 1
    '85 Cardinals 5, '70 Orioles 1
     
    '74 LAD @ '77 NYY
    '79 Pit @ '86 NYM
     
    '77 Yankees 6, '74 Dodgers 2
    '86 Mets 5, '79 Pirates 4, 14 innings
     
    '68 Det @ '67 StL
    '82 Mil @ '75 Cin
     
    '68 Tigers 2, '67 Cardinals 1
    '75 Reds 8, '82 Brewers 4
     
    '94 Mon @ '98 NYY
    '02 Oak @ '04 StL
     
    '98 Yankees 9, '94 Expos 8
    '04 Cardinals 3, '02 Athletics 2
     
    '04 Bos @ '92 Atl
    '01 Sea @ '88 Oak
     
    '04 Red Sox 11, '92 Braves 3
    '88 Athletics 2, '01 Mariners 1, 10 Innings
     
    '05 CWS @ '03 NYY
    '02 SF @ '95 Cle
     
    '05 White Sox 2, '03 Yankees 0
    '95 Indians 5, '02 Giants 2
     
    '01 Ari @ '92 Tor
    '03 Fla @ '99 Atl
     
    '01 Diamondbacks 11, '92 Blue Jays 5
    '03 Marlins 1, '98 Braves 0
  10. EVIL~! alkeiper
    A bit of background on this one. For years, WWE ran frequent shows at the Catholic Youth Center in Scranton, PA. Its history dates back at least to 1964, with Bruno Sammartino main eventing shows. Even as the Attitude era flourished in large arenas, WWE would come back to the CYC and run shows in front of 3,800 fans. In the Summer of 1998 however, the catholic leadership saw the product becoming too distasteful, and barred the WWE. So wrestling left the area for two years.
     
    I never saw a wrestling show at the CYC, but I did attend a Harlem Globetrobbers game there. The best information I can find is that the CYC is now owned by Lackawanna College. Here's a virtual tour of the facility.
     
    http://www.ecampustours.com/VirtualTours/V...83&ItemID=8
     
    July 16, 2000. For the first time, the new First Union Arena at Casey Plaza hosts a WWE event (they had WCW Thunder in January). I had upper deck seats to catch this lineup.
     
    Bull Buchanon defeated Al Snow
    WWF European Champion Eddie Guerrero defeated Perry Saturn
    Taka Michinoku & Sho Funaki defeated the Dupps
    WWF Tag Team Champions Edge & Christian defeated the Acolytes
    The Undertaker defeated Kurt Angle via count-out
    Ivory defeated Jackie
    WWF Hardcore Champion Steve Blackman defeated Gangrel
    WWF Hardcore Champion Steve Blackman defeated Essa Rios
    Matt & Jeff Hardy defeated Road Dogg & X-Pac
    Kane defeated the Big Bossman
     
    None of the matches truly stands out. Undertaker/Angle really turned out to be a dress rehearsal for their Fully Loaded PPV match, minus the finish. This was a good show though, nothing was remotely close to bad.
     
    Three years later, first level seats at the same venue (now called the Wachovia Arena at Casey Plaza).
     
    Maven & the Hurricane defeated Lance Storm & Chief Morley when Hurricane pinned Morley
    Christopher Nowinski pinned Tommy Dreamer
    WWE Women’s Champion Jazz defeated Trish Stratus and Victoria by pinning Trish
    WWE Raw Tag Team Champion Kane pinned Christian
    Bubba Ray, D-Von, & Spike Dudley defeated Rico & 3 Minute Warning in a tables match following a 3D on Jamal through a table
    Sylvian Grenier & Rene Dupree defeated Scott Steiner & Test when Test was pinned as he was distracted by Stacy Keibler and Steiner on the floor
    Booker T pinned Rodney Mack
    WWE Raw World Champion Triple H pinned Kevin Nash after ramming the challenger’s head into an unprotected turnbuckle
     
    Here things are clearer. The Dudleys' table match was no more than a standard six man tag with a table finish. I was sour on HHH/Nash at the time, but in retrospect I need to admit that they had a fine match.
     
    I think arena shows are excellent as a fan. Live television shows can be hit or miss as the company is more concerned with angle development. At the live events, it's simply matches, and every angle is done with the live audience in mind.
     
    Coming tomorrow: The Draft Lottery in 2007 and Benoit loses his mind.
  11. EVIL~! alkeiper
    Watching the Glory Days documentary of the 1980 Phillies, former owner Ruly Carpenter mentioned a potential trade with the Texas Rangers over the winter of 1979 that would have removed three star performers of the 1980 season. Narrator Dallas Green states, "of course, we won't mention the players involved," while showing a clip of Tug McGraw. What was that trade? What would it have entailed?
     
    Paperofrecord.com carries archives of the Sporting News. Searching for "McGraw" over the period of 1979 would bring up potential trade rumors, I would think. Sure enough, we find our answer. The Phillies seemed keen on acquiring an ace reliever. Whispers of offers to the Cubs for Bruce Sutter are mentioned, but the big one is a package to the Rangers for Sparky Lyle. Specifically, the Phillies would have sent Tug McGraw, Larry Christenson and Bake McBride to the Rangers for Sparky Lyle, outfielder Johnny Grubb, reliever Adrian Devine and maybe shortstop Pepe Frias.
     
    Swapping Lyle for McGraw must have looked good at the time. Sparky Lyle at the time was the greatest lefty reliever of all time. Lyle however was hanging on the precipice. He bombed in 1980, producing a 4.69 ERA with Texas. Tug McGraw meanwhile battled tendonitis, but after a three week stint on the DL he came back and posted an amazing 0.52 ERA from July through the end of the season. I count 12 one-run victories among his appearances. Given that the Phillies won the NL East by a single game, surely that trade costs them the pennant.
     
    The rest of the package looks a little more interesting. Bake McBride was the starting right fielder and a good player. McBride hit .309 in 1980 with 52 extra base hits. Among right fielders, he was middle of the pack. Grubb meanwhile was a lefty slugger, a tremendous platoon player in the era. With Grubb, the Phillies likely platoon him in right field with blazing rookie Lonnie Smith. Offensively that's a good move. Defensively with Smith in right and Greg Luzinski in left? Thank god Maddox was the Secretary of Defense.
     
    Adrian Devine had a good ERA in 1979 but it was a fluke. He struck out merely 22 batters in 66.7 innings pitched. Sure enough, he had a 4.82 ERA the next season and never again pitched in the Majors. Frias was just an awful hitter.
     
    So that trade costs them 1980. McBride faded after the season. Christenson gave the Phillies about 350 quality innings the rest of his career. McGraw had another good season in 1981 and hung on three more years. Grubb was a quality player but not a star. Oddly, the Phillies snagged Sparky Lyle later in the season in a September trade, sending Kevin Saucier after the season for a PTBNL. 1981 was the strike year, that is almost impossible to gauge. One wonders if the Phillies in 1982 could have contended without Christenson pitching a full season. And of course in '83 they won the pennant.
     
    In retrospect, the trade costs them a World Championship. Thank goodness it did not happen.
  12. EVIL~! alkeiper
    Ten years ago, Baseball America started listing top prospects by team. The Phillies at the time had a weak system, and BA chose reliever Ryan Brannan as the Phillies' top prospect. Brannan never reached the major leagues. Over ten years have passed, so now it is apparent whether any of the Phillies' farm products at the time became successes or failures. Looking back, could any of their players made better picks as top prospects? I drew up a list of the top ten based on current career win shares. Players in the organization as of January 1, 1998 and claimed rookie eligibility status.
     
    1. Jimmy Rollins, SS (18 years old)
    Sally League: 270/332/370, 46 stolen bases
     
    Impressive second year, as Rollins displayed a bit of pop, plate discipline, lots of speed. A shortstop who happened to be one of the youngest players in the league AND exceeded the league OPS is certainly a top prospect.
     
    2. Randy Wolf, LHP (20 years old)
    NY-Penn League: 4-0, 1.57 ERA, 40 IP, 8 BBs, 53 K's.
     
    Wolf was the Phillies' second round pick in the 1997 draft. It is hard to put a lot of stock in 40 innings. Michael Cisco would qualify as a top prospect under the same criteria. It would be interesting to go back and read scouting reports on this one.
     
    3. Marlon Anderson, 2B (23 years old)
    Eastern League: 266/318/374, 27 steals in 42 attempts.
     
    Those numbers are hardly impressive at all. Low average, little power, high caught stealing rate. Anderson would explode for 62 extra base hits the next year in AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Anderson spent a couple years playing second base for the Phillies before settling in as a valuable spare part for the New York Mets.
     
    4. Desi Relaford, SS (23 years old)
    International League: 267/323/400, 29 steals.
     
    You want a higher batting average, but that's not bad from a 23 year old SS in AAA. Relaford bombed as a starter though in 1998. Relaford got mileage out of a career as a utility infielder. His placement on the list is due to longevity rather than real ability.
     
    5. Johnny Estrada, C (21 years old)
    NY-Penn League: 314/341/489.
     
    223 at bats, 9 walks and 15 strikeouts? How do you evaluate a player like that? Estrada never got his OBP up. He reached the Majors in 2001 thanks to an injury to Mike Lieberthal, but was terrible. He had a solid year with the Braves in 2004, but otherwise he was a poor hitter. A player like this lives and dies on his batting average and when you do that, it better be closer to .320-.330.[/i]
     
    6. Carlos Silva, RHP (18 years old)
    Appy League: 2-2, 5.12 ERA, 58 IP, 14 BBs, 31 K's.
     
    Home run rates are unavailable, so I don't know if Silva's ground ball tendencies were readily apparent. While Silva crashed and burned in 2008, he's had a fine career thus far as a starting pitcher.
     
    7. Adam Eaton, RHP (19 years old)
    Sally League: 5-6, 4.18 ERA, 71 IP, 30 BBs, 57 K's.
     
    Nothing in the stat line really stands out. The Phillies packaged Eaton to the Padres for Alan Ashby before the 2000 season. Eaton had a 4.13 ERA in 2000 and since then has NEVER posted a better than average ERA in a season of any length.
     
    8. Bobby Estalella, C (22 years old)
    International League: 233/321/418
     
    A beast. Estalella had power to spare, and was built like a truck. Unfortunately he had yet to hit for an acceptable average. Estalella exploded the following season in Scranton, posting a .993 OPS in 76 games. Estalella hit just .216 though in 904 MLB at bats.
     
    9. Wayne Gomes, RHP (24 years old)
    International League: 38 IP, 24 BB's, 36 K's, 2.37 ERA
    MLB: 42.7 IP, 24 BBs, 24 K's, 5.27 ERA
     
    How the heck did this guy ever come around with those peripherals. Gomes had three decent seasons from 1998-2000, before losing effectiveness.
     
    10. Derrick Turnbow, RHP (19 years old)
    Appy League: 24 IP, 16 BB, 7 K's, 7.50 ERA.
     
    Wow. Turnbow found his stuff for one good season in Milwaukee, but otherwise he had extreme control issues his entire career.
     
    I think Rollins and Wolf were obvious talents at the time. The rest are generally a collection of journeymen who had lengthy careers as reserves. In retrospect, Rollins probably should have been the number one prospect.
  13. EVIL~! alkeiper
    Let's run with this. Some of the rankings might be off by one or two. I'll never be satisfied as a whole, and in general it's impossible to really create a solid list. I just hope to avoid making some stupid mistakes.
     
    1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
    A strikeout an inning at AA and AAA, just 21 years old.
    2. Jason Donald, SS
    Gotta love a shortstop who can post a .500+ slugging percentage.
    3. Dominic Brown, OF
    The scouts love him. I'll buy into the hype.
    4. Lou Marson, C
    I have qualms about his power, but it's much easier to go with the flow on this one.
    5. Michael Taylor, OF
    Took a huge jump in one season.
    6. Kyle Drabek, RHP
    Looks great in the Hawai'ian league. Ace potential.
    7. Travis D'Arnaud, C
    8. Zachary Collier, OF
    9. Joe Savery, LHP
    Bad season, but peripherals weren't terrible. Deserves another look.
    10. Jason Knapp, RHP
    11. Sebastian Valle, C
    12. Vance Worley, RHP
    13. J.A. Happ, LHP
    I'm leary even rating him this high. He walks far too many batters for a pitcher without blow away stuff.
    14. John Mayberry Jr., OF
    Hard to dismiss this kind of power potential. Doesn't strike out as much as you'd think for a player of this profile.
    15. Michael Stutes, RHP
    Statistics are impressive, but really lacks impressive stuff. Even watching him, you think nothing of it and all the sudden, you have 8 K's marked on your scorecard.
    16. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
    Big HR rate in Reading is a red flag.
    17. Freddy Galvis, SS
    Bat is iffy, but I LOVE the defense. This is a guy I want to watch.
    18. Julian Sampson, RHP
    While not striking out batters, extremely low HR rate is a good sign for a young pitcher. Keep an eye on this one as a possible Chien-Ming Wang type.
    19. Michael Cisco, RHP
    Completely under the radar, but posted a 30/0 K:BB ratio as a starter in Lakewood, with no home runs.
    20. Drew Naylor, RHP
    21. Edgar Garcia, RHP
    Never impressive, but still very young.
    22. Quintin Berry, OF
    Should make a fifth outfielder someday with his speed. Complete lack of power.
    23. Andrew Carpenter, RHP
    Seemed to recover as the season developed. Thanks to an inning of mopup relief, he's forever a champion.
    24. Sergio Escalona, LHP
    25. Anthony Hewitt, SS
    Performance was awful, but there's potential if he can learn to make contact.
    26. Anthony Gose, OF
    27. Michael Schwimer, RHP
    6'8" reliever, posted high strikeout rates in Williamsport and did not allow a single HR.
    28. Jeremy Slayden, OF
    Why on earth has he never been pushed a level?
    29. Chance Chapman, RHP
    Old for Lakewood, but I think he has a future career as a reliever.
    30. Brad Harman, 2B/SS
    Performance was bad, but he's still quite young, plays defense well and has some power. Possibly a utility infielder in the future. He put on a show at the last World Baseball Classic for Australia, and should get another chance this time around.
  14. EVIL~! alkeiper
    Fans of teams tend to overrate their prospects. Sometimes this reaches absurd levels. I mentioned J.A. Happ in my last entry, and apparently a few amateur prospect watchers weight him highly due to his close proximity to the Majors. Does a high level outweigh potential? What about performance vs. scouting? When I develop a prospect list, I think the correct way to go about it is to view the players as trading chips. If you were trading for a team's top prospects, which ones would you value? (Ignoring positional and team needs and such.)
     
    J.A. Happ led the International League in strikeouts, at the age of 25. For comparisons sake, these are the other starters who have finished top ten in strikeouts at the same age. Brandon Knight, Brandon Duckworth, Travis Harper, Luke Hudson, Eric Junge, Denny Lail, Everett Stull, Tim Rumer, Brad Woodall, John DeSilva, Mike Oquist, Jesse Cross, Dave Telgheder, Josh Hancock, Aaron Heilman, Brian Burres, Virgil Vasquez, J.A. Happ, Jeff Niemann and Chris Lambert. Note any All-Stars on that list? None of them even held a starting pitching job long term. Oquist had the most wins, with 25. To make a pitcher on that level a team's top ten prospect is simply delusional.
  15. EVIL~! alkeiper
    I don't know if there is a good way to sum up an event like this. I probably should not even try. A lot of things have gone through my head as to what to write, and suffice to say I'm not a terribly poetic writer. I got to watch quite a few of the Phillies' players come through the minors, including Chase Utley, Cole Hamels and Ryan Howard.
     
    Frankly, I am shocked it came about so easily. The only other year the Phillies won the World Series was 1980. In that season, the Phils won the division by one game, coming back from behind to win three times in the last week, including the clincher. They won a best of five series 3-2 against the Astros, trailing all three times before they won, and seeing four of those five games go extra innings. They won the World Series 4-2 against the Royals, and they came from behind to win three times. Twice they had to beat Dan Quisenberry to do it. The only game they won in the playoffs but never trailed was the clincher, game six. This time they went 11-3 in the postseason. They were never a loss away from elimination. The only game the Rays even led at any point was their game two victory.
     
    Cole Hamels established himself as a Phillies postseason legend, going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five starts. Brad Lidge rocketed up the postseason saves list. He has now saved more postseason games than all but two pitchers, Dennis Eckersley and Mariano Rivera. Ryan Howard hit three home runs. I think credit is due to the Rays though, who enjoyed a fine season. They lost fighting, with the tying run at second base and losing out only when a line drive stayed in the air too long. Baseball is truly a game of inches, hits turning into outs and vice versa by the smallest of margins. A couple of breaks and the championship easily could have gone the other way.
     
    Was it a boring postseason? More or less, yes. I was thankful for that from a Phillies' perspective but disappointed in the other series. The game five ALCS comeback from the Red Sox will live as a classic. Game five of the World Series was very good as a whole (it will hopefully live in one piece on the dvd), as was game three. Little was memorable about the Fall Classic though. I think we can lay blame on Fox, the weather, MLB as much as we want. The fact remains however that if the games are lacking, there is little you can do to dress them up. Baseball needs exciting games, and then needs to market them properly.
     
    It bears repeating. If you long for the days that your children could enjoy baseball, take them to a minor league game. The lower, the better. You get cheaper tickets, cheaper parking, cheaper concessions, and the players are much more accessable.
     
    It amazes me how much merchandise MLB will attempt to sell in the wake of a World's championship. Within an hour, the Phillies' website proudly displayed a couple hundred items for sale, all proclaiming the Phillies "2008 World Champions." Hats, shirts and dvd sets are customary. Here are some other fun items you might purchase.
     
    * Wincraft Philadelphia Phillies 2008 World Series Champions Galvanized Pail ($29.99)
    * Seven different 2008 World Series Bobbleheads, including the Phillie Phanatic, all holding the trophy ($24.99 each)
    * Mr. Potato Head, Complete with Phillies hat and trophy ($19.99)
    * 2008 World Champions Snow Globe ($34.99)
    * Cole Hamels Autographed World Series Baseball ($217.99)
     
    I can just imagine someone in the process of redecorating their den.
     
    A final note on the parade. Chase Utley has raised a bit of a stir by declaring the Phillies, "World F'n Champions!" That is not the most distressing thing on its face, but it is a bit disheartening how this type of language has seemingly become acceptable at Philadelphia sporting events. It makes it difficult to introduce non-fans into the sport or to a sporting venue. Winning is not a ticket to act like a jackass.
     
    In summation, this is really the first championship win I was alive to witness. I don't think anything in the future will measure to this. Thank you Phillies!
     
  16. EVIL~! alkeiper
    Eight years ago, Bill James produced his book on win shares. In that book, he listed each franchise's top 25 players by that statistic. In the ensuing period, the Phillies have had a run of success, finishing above .500 nearly every season and winning back to back division titles for only the second time in franchise history. With the club now producing several franchise players, I thought it might be worth updating the list.
     
    1. Mike Schmidt (467)
    2. Ed Delahanty (365)
    3. Richie Ashburn (289)
    4. Robin Roberts (277)
    5. Steve Carlton (276)
    6. Sherry Magee (274)
    7. Bobby Abreu (247)
    8. Pete Alexander (238)
    9. Roy Thomas (233)
    10. Del Ennis (215)
    11. Dick Allen (211)
    12. Johnny Callison (209)
    t-13. Gavvy Cravath (188)
    t-13. Chuck Klein (188)
    t-15. Jimmy Rollins (184)
    t-15. Greg Luzinski (184)
    17. Willie Jones (179)
    18. John Titus (177)
    19. Cy Williams (176)
    20. Sam Thompson (166)
    21. Billy Hamilton (165)
    22. Pat Burrell (163)
    t-23. Von Hayes (158)
    t-23. Fred Luderus (158)
    25. Darren Daulton (154)
     
    Chase Utley currently has 126 win shares. He is signed through 2013, and if he maintains his current pace he could begin to challenge that top six. Ryan Howard has 94 win shares. No one else on the team is currently within striking distance. Rollins is under contract through 2011. Again, he could end up with about 260 win shares at the end of his deal.
  17. EVIL~! alkeiper
    Often in historical discussions, a sportscaster might bring up a player such as Roberto Clemente or Sandy Koufax. They will cite the player's first few seasons, noting that while they were a superstar player, they struggled in their first few seasons in the majors. Koufax is a particularly good example. He reached the Majors at the age of 19, and in his first six seasons posted a rather pedestrian record of 36-40. This type of analysis misses a key point. Most comparable players were not in the majors at ALL at that age. A great deal of players were not yet even in professional ball.
     
    Koufax played early in the major leagues because he was a "bonus baby." A player who earned a large bonus as an amateur was required to spend two seasons on the major league roster. This rule was intended to prevent teams from hoarding top amateur talent. Clemente was actually a Rule V pick, again a player required to play in the minors at an early age.
     
    Often we tend to evaluate players by looking at career rate stats. Quirks in early or late career performance can skew these results however. I feel it is appropriate to focus on player's primes to get a fair evaluation of their true abilities. This is not the end-all of evaluation. Rather, it simply provides a second look at the great players, allowing us to avoid inaccurate ratings simply because of a fluke in the data set.
     
    Over the offseason, I plan to rate the top five in baseball history at each position. I plan to use statistics, era adjustments, non-MLB players (i.e. negro leaguers), and perhaps even raw skills. These ratings may come out differently than expected, but I hope to find it a worthwhile and enjoyable project.
  18. EVIL~! alkeiper
    Another blogger did a mock NBA draft from the board, inserting himself into the spot of one of the participants. I decided to do the same thing with the wrestling draft in the General Wrestling folder. One twist, instead of taking a spot I am simply going to take a pick at the end of each round, picking last each time. Let's see how this goes.
     
    1: "Nature Boy" Buddy Rogers. Wrestling's top heel in the 1950s into the '60s. An iconic figure for fans of that era, and a top draw.
    2. Bruno Sammartino. Too popular to be ignored, despite relative lack of working ability.
    3. Magnum T.A. Extremely popular babyface attraction.
    4. Nick Bockwinkel. Top heel, both as a talker and a worker.
    5. Classy Fred Blassie. A tremendous heel in his day, an outstanding talker as well.
    6. Lou Thesz.
    7. Bobo Brazil.
    8. Mil Mascaras. A top babyface whose aerial offense could excite the crowd.
    9. Jim Londos. A handsome undersized greek would make a tremendous babyface.
    10. Killer Kowalski.
    11. Mr. Fuji & Toru Tanaka. The beginning of a tag team division.
    12. Billy Robinson. The worker/shooter of the promotion.
    13. Ken Patera. Undrafted after 400+ picks? Get on the ball people!
    14. Johnny Valentine.
    15. The Fabulous Kangaroos (Al Costello & Roy Heffernan)
    16. Antonino Rocca & Miguel Perez. A popular, main event, ethnic tag team.
    17. Red Bastien. Top worker and face in the early 70s. Could occasionally team with Robinson.
    18. Doug Somers & Buddy Rose.
    19. Whipper Billy Watson. One of the biggest stars in Canadian wrestling history.
    20. Jimmy & Johnny Valiant.
    21. Don Leo Jonathan. Large, agile heel.
     
    21 picks in, that looks like an extremely stacked promotion. Not a great workrate promotion, but most of these guys are no slouches in the ring and they know how to work a crowd. I'll fill in picks as they happen and later on unveil a fantasy wrestling card.
     
    Three more picks.
     
    22. Mr. Wrestling II. Popular performer in Georgia in the 1970s.
    23. Superstar Bill Dundee.
    24. Jay Youngblood. Great young babyface, passed before his time.
  19. EVIL~! alkeiper
    Another year of baseball is finally here. Who cares if it is too cold to reasonably enjoy the game?
     
    April 1, Lehigh Valley @ Reading (exhibition)
     
    A cold front threatened this game. While every place in eastern PA got drenched, the rain somehow avoided Reading entirely. We were treated to a 66 degree gametime temperature, fantastic conditions. This game pit the Phillies' top two minor league affiliates against each other to benefit Baseballtown charities. I can not stress enough how terrific a place First Energy Stadium is. The staff puts together a tremendous gameday experience, prices are good, concessions are reasonable. Plus, you can see Jason Donald take a wizz in the dugout!
     

     
    Lehigh Valley won 6-2.
     
    April 3-5, Lehigh Valley @ Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
     
    The first official games for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs. Less said about the games, the better. As much as Reading puts into their gameday experience, Scranton does the opposite. No promotions, no excitement, barely any information for the fans. And that nice weather? Gone. Saturday was particularly fun. Afternoon game, bound to be a bit warm, right? 41 f'n degrees. And my dumb ass brought a short sleeve shirt. Put on a brave face though. Considered a sweater at the gift shop, but if someone bet me I couldn't make it through the game for $38, I'd take the bet.
     
    Next week: Three games at Scranton, against the Louisville Bats.
  20. EVIL~! alkeiper

    Bob Gibson, 1968

    By EVIL~! alkeiper,

    Forty years ago, Bob Gibson set a near-record by posting a 1.12 ERA over a full season. Of course Gibson benefitted from favorable pitching conditions, but his mark is still third all time even taking the deadball era into account.
     
    What amazes me most about the season is not the ERA, but the fact that Gibson lost nine games in the process. Without exaggeration, I can find 200 pitchers who had more impressive single season records. I thought it would be interesting to take a quick look at those losses. Retrosheet.org has game logs of course, but thanks to Baseball Reference's Play Index we can create a quick list.
     
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/HSpC
     
    There are ten games on this list. Nine of Gibson's losses, and a tenth game the Cardinals lost after Gibson left the game. For the record, Gibson had three no-decisions in 1968, the Cardinals went 2-1 in those games. In one loss, Gibson surrendered six runs, three of them earned. He allowed just six hits in a complete game, two walks, and 15 strikeouts. All six runs scored in the final three innings.
     
    Three times Gibson lost 1-0 games. In one game he pitched a dual shutout with the Phillies' Woodie Fryman before losing in the tenth. Don Drysdale beat him 2-0, the other run coming off a reliever in the ninth (Gibson left for a pinch-hitter). In the third, the Giants' Gaylord Perry countered with a no-hitter. In those four three-run outings, Gibson pitched eight innings in all four. Two were complete games, the other two saw Gibson lifted for pinch hitters with his team trailing.
     
    Here are Gibson's wins for that season.
     
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/KtNf
     
    Those two at the bottom are Gibson's no decisions that the Cardinals won. Two things stand out about the wins. One, Gibson pitched 9 or more full innings EVERY SINGLE TIME he won a game. Second, Gibson won a game while allowing more than one run just twice. Talk about earning your victories.
     
    Many teams struggled to score runs in 1968. The Cardinals finished fourth out of ten teams despite a team containing Orlando Cepeda, Lou Brock, Roger Maris, Curt Flood and Tim McCarver. Just three players (Brock, Flood and Dal Maxvill) posted OBPs above .310.
     
    By any measure Gibson was a dominant force that year. If he had the hitting the SF Giants for example enjoyed that season, he would have gone 30-3. As it was though, it's a remarkable season in spite of the nine losses.
  21. EVIL~! alkeiper

    2008 RR Preview

    By EVIL~! alkeiper,

    Since I am ordering the show tonight, I thought I might as well give some pre-match thoughts and projections.
     
    Royal Rumble Match
     
    Always a good show. I am a bit wary though on the HHH show. I find his character stale and his matches generally dull. It is not that he is not a good wrestler, but he is terribly methodical. Every time he wrestles a big gimmick match you know it is going 20+ minutes. HHH/Orton at Wrestlemania does not interest me in the slightest. The only thing that might make it watchable is an Evolution Fatal Four-way. In this match though, you have either HHH or the Undertaker, unless WWE throws a major curveball. Other storylines heading in are the Hornswaggle/Finlay saga, and that's about it. We'll see.
     
    Jeff Hardy vs. Randy Orton
     
    You know the IWC are still marks at heart. Everyone wants WWE to put Jeff over in this match although it really doesn't make good long-term booking sense. It would devalue Orton as champion even if they gave him the belt back, and Jeff as champion would not have a ready opponent apart from the Orton rematch. I'd love to see a title change though, because we're all marks at heart. Jeff has become one of WWE's better talents, and it will be a great moment when he does win the title, here or in the future.
     
    Edge vs. Rey Mysterio
     
    No one really believes Mysterio has a shot here.
     
    MVP vs. Ric Flair
     
    Again, everyone buys Flair coming out on top, possibly thanks to Matt Hardy. This Rumble card is really devoid of suspense, which makes me believe that they might try a surprise on at least one of the matches.
     
    JBL vs. Chris Jericho
     
    I think there might be money in a gimmick match down the road, though they would be crazy to try a blood feud blowoff on the same card as an elimination chamber, and I do not know if they can drag this out until Wrestlemania. This match honestly though gives Jericho his best shot at a great match in two years. Hopefully he can deliver.
  22. EVIL~! alkeiper

    Best Swansongs

    By EVIL~! alkeiper,

    Using Baseball Reference's Play Index, I came up with a list of the best player seasons by players in their final year. This list comprises players in their last season, playing 100+ games, sorted by OPS+.
     
    1. Ted Williams
     
    Playing in 113 games, Williams hit .316 with 29 home runs, 72 RBIs, and 75 walks (adding up to a .451 OBP). Announcing his retirement before the end of the season, Williams hit a home run in his final career at bat.
     
    2. "Shoeless" Joe Jackson
     
    This is actually 1920, as it took a season for the Black Sox scandal to break. Offenses around the league exploded, Jackson himself hit .382 with power and plate discipline. Jackson hit 42 doubles, 20 triples, 12 home runs, 121 RBIs, and only 14 strikeouts. With three games remaining in the season, Jackson and company were suspended by MLB in the wake of the Black Sox indictments. He was later banned for life the following season.
     
    3. Nick Johnson
     
    Johnson suffered a horrific leg injury in September of 2006 and missed the entire 2007 campaign. Will he ever play again? If not, note his .428 OBP for the Nationals in 2006, playing in a tough hitters' park.
     
    4. Will Clark
     
    After quietly producing quality seasons in Texas, Clark moved to Baltimore and missed half of the 1999 season. Clark played well in 2000 with the Orioles, staying healthy and again producing quality. Meanwhile in St. Louis, Mark McGwire suffered nagging injuries. The Cards looked to Clark as a stopgap, and Clark exploded, hitting .345 down the stretch and leading St. Louis to a Central division championship. The Cardinals tried to re-sign Clark for a LF job, but Clark elected retirement instead.
     
    Let me note here that Clark's season in 1989 was every bit as good as Jim Rice's 1978, in context. Clark was a flat out better player with a better career, but of course got no Hall of Fame support.
     
    5. Happy Felsch
     
    See Joe Jackson. Felsch hit .338, collected 69 extra base hits, drove in 115 runners and played center field. Hall of Fame material? Probably not. He had a similar OPS+ careerwise as players such as Cesar Cedeno, Ray Lankford, Cy Williams and Rick Monday.
     
    6. Mickey Mantle
     
    When Mickey Mantle hit .237 with 18 home runs and 54 RBIs, he looked done. The composite batting line for the American League in 1968 was .233/.302/.346. Mantle's .782 OPS that season actually ranked 9th in the American League.
     
    7. Dave Nilsson
     
    Nilsson had something of a fluke season, hitting .309 in 115 games as a catcher. Nilsson departed after the season to play for Australia in the 2000 olympics, and has generally been an Australian baseball mainstay since.
     
    8. Steve Evans
     
    The only player on the list I never heard of. Evans jumped to the Federal League and had two very good seasons there in 1914-15. When the league folded, Evans disappeared from the majors.
     
    9. Brian Downing
     
    .407 OBP for the Texas Rangers in 1992 as a DH in 107 games. Downing had not played a game in the field since 1987, so only his bat carried him.
     
    10. Buzz Arlett
     
    Arlett hit .318/.387/.538 in his only MLB season with the Phillies. Arlett was a star in the Pacific Coast League, back when that meant something. Arlett could have easily had a productive career in the Majors, but like many players of his day preferred to stay closer to home in California.
  23. EVIL~! alkeiper
    Joe Podnanski on his blog wrote a piece about RBI opportunities. Baseball Prospectus in their book Baseball Between the Numbers wrote about worst players who drove in 100+ RBIs. I figured to take a look at guys who drove in 130 or more runners in a season, to see if anyone actually had a bad season in the process. One clearly did, Moose Salters.
     
    Salters in 1936 drove in 134 runners with the St. Louis Browns. His numbers look superficially good, but the entire American League that season hit .302. Of the six left fielders in the league who played more than 100 games, Solters ranked fifth ahead of only Joe Vosmik. Solters undoubtably saw many RBI opportunities thanks to three hitters on the team who produced a .400+ on base percentage (Harlond Cliff, Lyn Lary and Beau Bell). Oddly, Salters' year was a down year between two good ones.
     
    While we are having fun with the Play Index, let's see who the worst pitcher was to win 20 games. Before I run this search, I am almost certain it will be a player from the 19th century, probably very early in the existance of the organized leagues. Indeed, we find Jack Lynch, who went 23-21 with a 3.61 ERA for the New York Metropolitans. A 3.61 ERA is bad? When the league average is 2.79, yes. One thing to note about 19th Century baseball. While Lynch allowed 152 earned runs, he allowed 243 total runs, 91 unearned runs. Teams committed so many errors that team defense contributed perhaps more to run prevention than team pitching.
     
    Moving forward to the 20th century, we come up with Henry Schmidt. Schmidt went 22-13 with the Brooklyn Superbas, his 3.83 ERA leading to an 83 ERA+. He had the best win/loss percentage on his team, though they finished fifth overall in runs scored. Schmidt never pitched an inning in the majors outside of 1903.
     
    Modern time, it is Lew Burdette. Burdette pitched 289.7 innings, walked 38 batters and gave up 38 home runs. Admittedly the ERA+ totals are not impressively low, showing that most 20 game winners have legit talent, particularly if they do it more than once. (I did not say Hall of Fame talent, so don't jump the gun on Jack Morris.)
     
    Coming up in the near future, best swansong seasons of all time. You can probably guess #1.
  24. EVIL~! alkeiper
    1976 vs. 2008
     
    The Phillies have not seen many good teams over their history. Their greatest team is probably the 1976 squad. That team won 101 games, one of only two Phillies teams to do so. Unfortunately that Phillies team ran into a buzzsaw called the Big Red Machine, and thus failed to win the National League pennant. A Phillies player recently surmised that the Phils could win 100 games next season. If that happens, the 2008 Phillies could rank as the greatest in franchise history. So how do they stack up against the 1976 team? I thought it might be fun to take a look.
     
    Catcher: Bob Boone vs. Carlos Ruiz
     
    Bob Boone in the late '70s was a good defensive catcher who added some offensive contributions as well. Boone in 1976 saw his first good season at the plate, and he would follow up with three more. Carlos Ruiz is merely adequate at this point in his career. Boone made the All-Star team in '76
    Advantage: 1976
     
    First Base: Dick Allen vs. Ryan Howard
     
    Allen was perhaps one of the most controversial baseball players of all time. An elite talent who constantly feuded with teammates and the press. Howard is immensely likeable. Allen suffered injuries late in his career and missed some time. Ryan Howard is about two seasons away from becoming the team's franchise first baseman.
    Advantage: 2008
     
    Second Base: Dave Cash vs. Chase Utley
     
    Of course the nod goes to Chase Utley, so let me say a few words in favor of Cash. He spent three years with the Phillies, hit for good averages but no power. The raw numbers are unimpressive. Cash however made the All-Star team all three years. Of the twelve NL second baseman, he was second or third along with Davey Lopes. (Joe Morgan of course ranks first.) So when we pass over Cash, remember that he was a very good player.
    Advantage: 2008
     
    Shortstop: Larry F. Bowa vs. Jimmy Rollins
     
    Larry Bowa got by on gamesmanship. He had some fielding ability and was a good baserunner. He could not hit much, even relative to a typical National League shortstop. Somehow Bowa received MVP votes for his efforts. Jimmy Rollins of course just won the MVP. Can't argue with that.
    Advantage: 2008
     
    Third Base: Mike Schmidt vs. Wes Helms
     
    Next.
    Advantage: 1976
     
    Left Field: Greg Luzinski vs. Pat Burrell
     
    This is a real interesting comparison. Both were power sluggers with little to offer in either speed or fielding. Burrell is a better athlete. Luzinski at this point was in the midst of a run of four consecutive top-ten MVP finishes. Burrell has one top-ten to his credit.
    Advantage: 1976
     
    Center Field: Garry Maddox vs. Shane Victorino
     
    Maddox won eight gold gloves in a row beginning in 1975. In '76, he hit .330 with 29 stolen bases. For a '70s center fielder, that is a superstar. Victorino can field with the best of them. Maddox's OPS+'s at this point however were much higher. Another clear edge.
    Advantage: 1976
     
    Right Field: Jay Johnstone vs. Jayson Werth
     
    Play Jay every day! Johnstone was a fourth outfielder who played so well that he forced himself into a starting role. Werth did much the same thing last season. Johnstone's ability to stay healthy gives him the edge here. You may remember him by the way from his role in Naked Gun. He is the batter Leslie Nielsen calls out in dramatic fashion.
    Advantage: 1976
     
    Bench: Tim McCarver/Bobby Tolan/Ollie Brown/Jerry Martin/Tom Hutton vs. Chris Coste/Greg Dobbs/Eric Bruntlett/T.J. Bohn/Chris Snelling
     
    Bobby Tolan and “Downtown” Ollie Brown were mainly hitters. Tolan and Tom Hutton filled in for first baseman Dick Allen when necessary. Jerry Martin was a fifth outfielder type, while Tim McCarver covered catching duties. McCarver sat behind the plate when Steve Carlton pitched. The '76 club rarely used a utility infielder. The 2008 bench looks unimpressive at the moment. The problem with the modern bench is that the increased pitching staffs have eliminated roles for extra hitters.
    Advantage: 1976
     
    Ace Starter: Steve Carlton vs. Cole Hamels
     
    Is Carlton over Hamels really that clear? Carlton from 1974-76 went 51-34, with ERA+ figures of 117, 105 and 114. Hamels over the last two years put up a 115 and 134. Carlton would explode into an all-time great in 1977, winning the first of three more Cy Young awards. In 1976 though, Carlton was not at that level. Cole Hamels is clearly a better pitcher. The only question is how much credit do you give Carlton for durability? Thirteen pitchers compiled more innings than Carlton over that 1974-76 stretch, so he was not an anomaly of his time.
    Advantage: 2008
     
    Rotation: Jim Kaat/Jim Lonborg/Larry Christenson/Tom Underwood vs. Brett Myers/Jamie Moyer/Kyle Kendrick/Adam Eaton
     
    Myers put up ERA+'s of 118 and 120 before moving into the bullpen for 2007. Jim Kaat won 20 games in both 1974 and '75 with superior ERAs. He fell off in 1976. Lonborg vs. Moyer is interesting, both had mixes of good and bad seasons. Lonborg from 1974-76 went 43-29. Moyer over the last three years is 38-33, but that includes a 6-12 stretch with a bad Mariners club last year.
     
    Christenson and Kyle Kendrick were both 22 year old starters. Christenson pitched 168.7 innings, gave up 8 home runs, 42 walks and 54 strikeouts. Kendrick pitched 121 innings, 16 home runs, 25 walks and 49 strikeouts. Kendrick had a much better ERA. Tom Underwood was another 22 year old. He had some up and down seasons but none as bad as Eaton's 2007. Really, this one is too close to call for my comfort.
    Advantage: Push.
     
    Bullpen: Ron Reed/Gene Garber/Tug McGraw/Ron Schueler/Wayne Twitchell vs. Brad Lidge/Tom Gordon/J.C. Romero/Ryan Madson/Francisco Rosario
     
    Lidge at his peak is an elite pitcher, but neither of his last two seasons tops Ron Reed in 1976-77. Garber had a better season in '76 than Gordon last year, but Gordon's established performance gives him the edge there. McGraw over Romero is not as clear-cut as you might think. McGraw's ERA+ from 1972-76: 197, 94, 86, 126, 143. Romero from 2003-07: 91, 135, 128, 68, 243. Ron Schueler was a mediocre pitcher enjoying a fluke year, Madson is better. Ditto Wayne Twitchell. One reliever pitched a single additional game for the '76 club. The 2008 team looks bad due to lack of depth, but the '76 Phillies literally had nothing.
    Advantage: 2008
     
    The 1976 Phillies won 101 again in 1977. If the 2008 club is to match up with that standard, they have their work cut out for them. The 1976 club had more hitting depth, the 2008 Phils have deeper pitching and a historically good infield. I hope the Phillies can make a run at 100 wins though. The team has lacked an all-time great season, and this is a great shot with their entire core firmly in their prime.
  25. EVIL~! alkeiper
    THIRD ROUND
    Minnesota 4
    Boston 3
    Torii Hunter gave the Twins the lead in the first inning with a three run double. The Sox scored two runs in the ninth but their comeback fell short with the tying run on base.
     
    San Diego 6
    Chi. Sox 0
    Jake Peavy pitched eight scoreless innings for the victory.
     
    Chi. Cubs 4
    Kansas City 2
    Alfonso Soriano's three-run home run in the second inning sparked the offense for the Cubs.
     
    Atlanta 7
    NY Yankees 4
    The Braves scored four runs in the fifth inning, including two on Kelly Johnson's triple. The Braves scored two insurance runs in the ninth on an E-5 and a passed ball.
     
    Oakland 8
    LA Angels 5
    The A's scored seven runs in the fourth and fifth innings, led by three RBIs by Mark Ellis. Chad Gaudin and Jered Weaver combined for five wild pitches.
     
    Colorado 6
    Washington 0
     
    San Francisco 11
    Buffalo 6
    The Giants dominated the mid-innings, breaking up a 3-3 tie in the fifth off Jeremy Sowers and cruising from there. Randy Messenger allowed three Buffalo runs in the ninth.
     
    St. Louis 9
    Cleveland 3
    C.C. Sabathia allowed seven earned runs in the loss.
     
    That leaves us with the elite eight. Tomorrow's matchups...
     
    Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres
    Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs
    Oakland Athletics @ Colorado Rockies
    San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
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