EVIL~! alkeiper

I don't have a specific writer I read religiously. I usually check out baseballthinkfactory.org. If there's an important column, it's linked there.

Signing Bonds would bring along a lot of extra baggage. He would have to go where the DH is. Teams have made this type of move dozens of times in the past, but usually it doesn't have the desired effect on attendance. I think the Oakland A's might be interested, but I'm guessing Bonds gets an offer around a fifth of his current salary, and retires.

Anyone see DHL's Hometown Heroes contest? Tim Raines isn't even on the Washington Nationals ballot. He's their franchise player, and it's not close.

The pitching staff finally collapsed. Kyle Davies got hurt, Jorge Sosa came back to earth, and nothing went right except John Smoltz.

I'm guessing you mean non-stat books. Glory of Their Times is an excellent read. Buck O'Neil's I Was Right On Time is a fun, easy read as well.

More often than you think. Kirk Gibson won the MVP in 1988 and NEVER made an All-Star team.

Minimal, because they play a healthy portion of their schedules against each other. Absolutely. The worst tendancy of sports talk is to take the last few games as a sole determint of a team's ability. Every team looks bad at some point.

Would you take less for Abreu and/or Burrell if you could get Dellucci signed to at least a one year extension and could plug him in? Also, if they move either one and get the almighty salary relief would you really bust slot and sign Kyle Gibson and Josh Thrailkill? It would mark a big financial commitment to this draft, but if you can essentially buy two high round picks with found money then why not. 1. Burrell yes, Abreu no. Here's a fun stat. Dellucci's career OPS against righties is one point higher than Pat Burrell's. 2. No. Matt White (not the SWB pitcher) just retired due to arm injuries. He was paid $10 Million after the 1997 draft. The list of draftees who were paid huge bonuses and crashed is long, and it's just too risky a proposition to devote serious money.

I think Burrell should be traded, IF the Phillies find good value in return. Otherwise they shouldn't trade him just for the sake of trading him. Looking at the upcoming free agent market, I can't see a single player worth paying top dollar for. Usually lefty-lefty matchups are considered tougher, but the last three seasons the Phils have had better luck there than when matching right-handers. That's an illusion I think, because when the Phils matched lefties it was Thome, Abreu, Howard, Utley, etc. at the plate. The proper mix depends on a number of factors. The Yankees, for example, would want to carry more left handed batters while the Red Sox would benefit from a more right-handed lineup, due to their respective ballparks. A left-handed lineup does run into problems if you don't have a righty to prevent the opposing manager from running out his lefty specialist for a full inning. I don't think, however, that it is necessarily wise strategy to keep a righty over a lefty just because he hits from that side. In the Phillies' case, I don't think trading Burrell and leaving mostly lefties is a big problem, because there apparently are not many lefties in the league. The Phillies have been in 94 games so far, and 80 of them have been against left-handed starters (they're 6-8 against lefties, FWIW).

That's a fun question. They are not the best, but they're close. Manny Ramirez's OPS+ from 2003-05 was 156, and Ortiz's was 150. Here are a few pairs of teammates I found that beat those numbers. 1. Hank Aaron/Eddie Mathews (Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves, 1954-66) Two HOFers, two members of the 500 home run club, and they were teammates for 12 seasons. 2. Jimmie Foxx/Al Simmons (Philadelphia Athletics, 1925-32) Admittedly, we're pushing the limits of "since Ruth/Gehrig." They deserve mention though. 3. Joe Dimaggio/Charlie Keller (New York Yankees, 1939-49) Keller was absolutely a fearsome hitter before injuries cut his career short. If you look at Keller's raw stats, be sure to note that he missed 1944 and most of 1945 due to World War II. 4. Mickey Mantle/Roger Maris (New York Yankees, 1960-62) Since I used three years, they appeared at the top of my list. I bumped them down because they rate much lower if you go four years, and because Mantle drags this tandem up kicking and screaming. They're rated at all because Maris won two MVPs. 5. Ken Griffey Jr./Edgar Martinez (Seattle Mariners, 1989-99) How soon we forget. I've got Ortiz/Ramirez sixth, followed closely by Ramirez/Thome and possibly Ramirez/Belle. This isn't an exhaustive list, and if anyone can think of a group to top those five, I'd like to hear it. One requirement is that it can't be pre-1930.

Nolan Ryan Brett Myers Ozzie Guillen Ariel Pestrano The Water Cooler

Here's who the Phils should trade. 1. Aaron Rowand Hustle enhances his real value. Shane Victorino is ready to step in, Michael Bourn could be a future option. 2. David Dellucci Miscast as a pinch hitter, needs regular playing time with his ability. 3. Cory Lidle/Jon Lieber Starters are highly coveted. Scott Mathieson is as good as Lidle right now. 4. Rheal Cormier 3rd best relief ERA despite middling peripherals. 5. Arthur Rhodes Free agent after the season. The Phillies should only deal Burrell or Abreu if the right deal comes along. It would be a mistake to cut either, especially Abreu, just to cut salary. Lieberthal's gone after the season. I could see Bell coming back for one year if the Phils don't sign Aubrey Huff. Aaron Fultz I think will return, as will Randy Wolf. Arthur Rhodes, Cory Lidle, Ryan Franklin and Mike Lieberthal are gone.

No. Wells will go where the money is. It helps the Blue Jays that both the Yankees and Mets have locked up center fielders to big money contracts. This is a tough one to answer. Teams have made several adjustments in the wake of the Moneyball revolution. It is important to remember however that Moneyball was just a byproduct of the original Bill James revolution in the early to mid 80s. Teams have changed considerably since then, and I don't think the divide between scouting and statistical analysis is as pronounced as the media would have you believe. It's much more pronounced in the writing world than anywhere else. The Athletics are very much aware of what creates a successful player. The idea of drafting college players is not because they are better than high schoolers. It's about risk. With a college player, you're playing the odds. When you draft a high schooler, you might draft a superstar, but can easily end up with a bust. There's an argument that with so many picks, you can take lots of high schoolers and if one pays off, it's a success. Given the success the A's have had building from within, I don't think they really have a problem with their drafting. They are not going to cut off their nose to spite their face. If they have the chance to draft a Justin Upton, they'd do it.

1. I haven't really paid attention to BBTN or its ilk lately, so I don't know who's getting talked up and who isn't. Quite honestly, I'd be hard pressed to identify any NL pitcher who's gotten a great deal of attention. And yes, I'd give him my Cy Young vote. 2. I think Green could get some value in a trade, simply because it's a thin free agent market. The trick is finding a match. The D'backs aren't hurting for prospects. 3. I usually attend about one Phillies game a year, if that. The stadium is a two hour drive and everything is damned expensive. If I go to a game, it's usually to AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (as was the case tonight). EDIT: I'll also point out that minor league games are quicker. I've been home for an hour while the Phillies, who started at the same time, are still playing.

The problem is that if the media wants to bend A-Rod's performance one way, it is very hard to break that pattern. Ortiz is considered a clutch god in part because EVERY clutch hit is given a lead on one of the highlight shows. Not every hitter gets that benefit. For A-Rod it's the opposite. Every time he doesn't come through, it becomes a major story. In a sport where the average rate of failure is 66%, you can make nearly any hitter look bad if you want. Fortunately, there are ways to counter this, with statistics. Fangraphs.com uses Win Probability to measure hitting performance. The concept is simple. With decades of play-by-play data, the probability of winning in any situation (for example, down 2, two runners on, one out, 8th inning) is available. The stat WPA (Win Probability Added) simply compares the difference before and after an event. So if a batter walks to lead off an inning, that's counted as a positive. You can easily have a negative WPA. Derek Jeter is currently third in baseball in this statistic. He's having a great year. A-Rod is sixth on his team. He's in the black however. I hesitate to bring in numbers because I can't really explain them, but Jeter comes in at 348.8, while A-Rod is at 43.8. The worst Yankee? Miguel Cairo is at -130.2. Funny how the NY Post never rips him. First in WPA is Albert Pujols, who has done nearly double to contribute to his team's victories than any other hitter.

Won't do the predictions, it's too close to call. With Shea, the Jays absolutely had to get rid of him. If you don't, you undermine any authority John Gibbons has in the clubhouse, and if you let Gibbons go, you demonstrate that the inmates are running the asylum. Besides, Hillenbrand was not a crucial part of the lineup. Gibbons I think is decent. I don't see any reason to criticize the job he's done.

1. A-Rod led the AL in win shares. 2. Closers are never the most valuable players on their teams. 3. While Ortiz had 20 home runs that either tied the game or put his team ahead, Rodriguez had 19 such home runs. 4. The Yankees won the division, so writers can't pull the losing team card. The Jays are 9th in bullpen ERA. They rate ahead of the White Sox. They can win with it, though it may be difficult. The problem is that pitching is at a premium in the market.

Indians DH Travis Haftner for MVP? He's hitting good enough to get the MVP, but there's no way he does it on a losing team. Jim Thome, however, absolutely should garner consideration. Like Vern, I'd give it to Mauer if the season ended today. I'd take the latter until he makes a few starts. Ever since you wasted time to post in my thread.

That would be reason enough to fire him. Does a DH deserve less consideration for MVP? Yes, simply because defensive contributions add value to a team's bottom line. Take for example, Ozzie Smith in 1987. The Cardinals in that year, and any other year of Oz's career, allowed fewer runs because of Smith's excellent glovework. That absolutely should come into consideration. The MVP guidelines specifically state, offense and defense. The DH, making contributions on just one side, is at a disadvantage. I don't think they're really comparable. Wang succeeds because he never allows home runs. Silva succeeded because he walked batters at a historically low rate. I would say Wang is a new version of Kent Tekulve, except as a starter. Hughes and Clippard are a good 1-2 punch. I'd hesitate to call them the best. Gonzalez/Mathieson for Reading were great, but Mathieson's in AAA now. In any case, I don't think they're handing out prizes for it. Baseball Prospectus gives the Jays a 9% chance at the division and 8% chance at the wild card, 17% overall. That sounds reasonable. The big problem the Jays have of course is their tough competition. They're where they should be at this point, and I wouldn't expect a big regression, nor improvement. What they do from here probably depends on what they do over the offseason.

I'll bet Reynolds lands an analyst job with the Seattle Mariners in the interim.

I just got home and my D'backs/Phillies game has no sound. Anyone else with UPN57 having this problem?

Last ones before I go to tonight's game. I think they though Ethier wouldn't be good this quickly, and there was some risk. Teams will often trade prospects for known commodities, though the A's don't do it often. In this case, they figured if Andre Ethier panned out, he'd be as good as Milton Bradley. They made the trade because they rated Bradley highly, not because they were down on Ethier. 1. Proctor's hit lucky right now, and given his past performances he is likely to decline. 2. I'd defer to Baseball America's Jim Callis on this one, who thinks Cabrera's a fourth outfielder. He's seen as not good enough defensively to play center, and not good enough offensively to hold a corner. I haven't seen enough of Cabrera myself to differ from that opinion.

I would vote for him. No manager has done more with less. 1. Yes, although I hardly see how you would win a bet on my opinion. Logistically, I think Biggio is a dead lock at this point. 2. Top 5-10%. He's very good, and yet somehow overlooked. It's possible fans underrate him because of the ballpark. He's good, bandbox or no. 3. The Astros are punting offense at shortstop and catcher, and carrying a slap hitter with little discipline at the top of their lineup. Outside of Berkman there's not really an impact hitter. 4. Closers/relievers are sometimes flashes in the sky. It's possible that Lidge is slumping, but he brings to mind others such as John Rocker and Rob Dibble, that threw hard, were enormously successful, and flamed out quickly.

What's really irksome about the A-Rod situation is that there's no good ending to it. If he's traded, all anyone will evey say is that he could not handle the "NYC pressure." If he stays, the media will just go on saying he's unclutch no matter what happens in the games. Hell, A-Rod one a game with a walkoff home run with the Yankees trailing in extra innings! And even if A-Rod wins the Yankees a championship, the fans that boo him don't deserve it. I'd almost like to see A-Rod field easy ground balls and chuck them into the stands as a hardy "fuck you" to the Yankee Stadium faithful. Maybe he can hit some beat writers with them.

It was simply easier to hit .400 then. Despite what most old-timers will tell you, the quality of players then was not as good as it is now. Stephen Jay Gould used to advance the theory that the disappearance of extremes in performances is evidence of evolution at work. If Ted Williams or Nap Lajoie came back today, I doubt they would hit .400. If I had to pick one, it would be Cy Young's career wins record. He's hurt. Simple as that.