SilverPhoenix

Okay. Time to for some more of "Kaiba's Bubble Team Analysis" This is the Criteria that I will be using - D-I record (Overall Wins will now be put in parthensies) - Overall New RPI - Overall Old RPI - Conference - Conference Strength/RPI - Conference record - Non-conference record - Non-conference RPI - Non Conference Strength of Schedule - Overall Strength of Schedule - Home Record - Netural Court Record - Road record - Record in last 10 games - Current Streak - NABC rankings - Record against teams sorted by RPI - "Marquee wins," "Key Wins", "Good losses," "Bad Losses" - Things to Look For - Overall Shot And I will be covering almost every single "Bubble" Team in the next 3 Days unless certain Teams in the Mid Majors and Low Majors win their auto-bids. Then on Sunday, if there is still some question, I will be covering the Number 1 Seed Candidates as well. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Now on with the show, with Norte Dame - Wins: 17 - Losses: 11 - New RPI: 93 - Old RPI: 66 - Conference: Big East - Conference Strength/RPI: 4 - Conference Record: 9 - 7 - Non Conference Record: 8 - 3 - Non Conference RPI: 157 - Non Conference SOS: 259 - Overall Strength of Schedule: 76 - Home Record: 13 - 4 - Road Record: 4 - 6 - Neutral Court Record: 0 - 1 - Record in Last 10 Games: 4 - 6 - Current Streak: 2 Losses NABC Ranking: N/A Record aganist Teams Sorted by RPI 1-50: 3 - 7 51-100: 3 - 2 101-200: 5 - 2 201+: 6 - 0 -Marquee Wins (Victories aganist the Top 25 RPI): Villanova, Boston College, Connecuit -Key Wins (Victories aganist the Top 100 RPI): Indiana, Georgetown, West Virginia -Good Losses (Losses aganist the Top 25 RPI): Syracuse(X2), UCONN, Villanova -Bad Losses (Losses aganist the Bottom 150 RPI, any Season Series you were swept aganist a Team with a RPI exceeding 100, and any home losses after Feburary 6th): Rutgers, UCLA, Michigan Things to Look for + Notre Dame is in a Power Conference, so the margin of Error is higher than St. Mary's or Southern Illinois and MUCH higher than Pacific. + 9 Wins in the Big East, more often than not gets you consideration, if not completely in. + 3 Key Wins and 3 Marquee Wins looks very good in the eyes of those in "The Bunker" + Played, arguably the tougest Big East Schedule - 4 out of 10 in their last 10 games. - 1 out of 5 in their final 5 games - 2 straight losses - Getting Embarrased by UCLA on their home court didn't win them any favors. - Out of Conference Schedule was completely abysmal. With a ranking of 259 out of 330 Teams they are in the bottom 21 percentile of the NCAA in this ranking. And losing to Michigan makes it even worse. - Losing to Rutgers makes you look bad, even if you're the top 1 seed. Losing to Rutgers as a Bubble Team may end up bursting your bubble. - A much larger bubble group than expected, makes them look even worse as teams like West Virginia, UAB and even Texas A & M are making their cases by winning, instead of losing like ND did. Overall The Big East is one of the tougest conferences, if not the tougest conference in the country to win in. 9 -7 with a very good OOC schedule makes you a virtual lock for the tournament. A 80s Georgetown like schedule with a 9 - 7 record, and a bad loss in a Tournament makes you look very bad. As much as ESPN may say that ND is in the Tourmanment, they may find themselves with Maryland, as one of the first teams out.

And Norte Dame loses. Wow, just wow. This is the epitome of BAD LOSS, losing to a 9 - 18 (2 - 14 in conference) with a Ranking in the Bottom Half of College Hoops does not make you look good in the selection committee, period. And when you add the fact they are the losers of the last 4 of 5, it makes them look worse. Once again, congratulations to Notre Dame, for fucking the Big East over, again.

Thanks Vern. Ya know, I want to see if anyone is interested. Does anyone want me to put anymore full tournament resumes of other teams up here for fun? I can acutally see if I can get the full info that selection committee uses to make better analysis. And Farleigh Dickison Wins the Northeast.

Vern, I got a "Couldn't Find Article Message", but I was able to find the articles you were talking about. (Go under the College Basketball section, guys.) Those articles are definetely very interesting, and the Davis Article brings up a very excellent point about the RPI. You cannot just look at the ranking number. There are a multitude of other numbers that are looked at (Conference Strength, OOC Schedule, Strength of Schedule, Margin of Victory and Defeats, and Head to Head Matchups). The RPI does have its problems, but it is used properly in most cases. And like someone else on this forum said, it's the final 10 Teams that are going to take up the 5 last spots, where the RPI means a damn big deal, and is used to determine certain things. More often than not, the big debates take place between Teams 64 - 70 (The Last 2 in, the first 5 out). It is not a perfect process, but it is much better than a certain process that beings in B and ends is S.

Acutally, there were teams worse than Oakland that have made it to the tournament. They're the worst or second worst since the modern tournament (64 Team Field). But, when you add the golden age of the tournament the worst tournament team ever is the 1961 George Washington Team, that made it with 9 Wins.

And since someone will ask that Question, here is Oral Roberts Full Resume. Wins: 25 (24 in the NCAA Selection Commitee's Eyes, cause wins over DII schools don't count.) Losses: 7 New RPI: 69 Old RPI: 93 Strength of Schedule 267 out of 330 Conference: Mid Continent Conference (MCC) Conference RPI: 25 Marquee Wins (Any Victory Over any Team in the Top 25 RPI): None Key Wins (Any Victory Over any Team in the Top 100 RPI): Georgetown, Soutwest Missouri State Bad Losses (Any Defeat Aganist any Team with an RPI past 150, and any Series where you were swept aganist Conference Oppoents with an RPI Past 100): UMKC (X2), Western Illinois The Key things to look for. Oral Roberts has 24 DI wins, a great number for any team in College Hoops, but they carry many things aganist them. - Their RPI is definetely representative of a Top Mid/Low Major Team at 69, and even when you put it under the old formula, their RPI is 93, which is still very good for them. - However, even with the good RPI ratings, they still aren't good enough. Most at Large Teams are taken from the top 50 RPI rankings, even if the RPI is only a tool, it is a tool that usually keeps teams like Oral Roberts out. The death knell for Oral Roberts is in two places. - Oral Roberts Strength of Schedule is 267 out of 330. Clearly in the bottom 20% Division I for Schedule Strength, which is NOT going to fly (Utah State, anyone?) very well with any selection committee. - The Mid Continent Conference is 25 out of 32. Only 6 other Conferneces and the Independents are worse as far as rankings go. Anything 20 and under is usually reserved for the Low Majors, and barring a team going with 1 or 2 losses, they are not even considered for at larges, no matter how much ESPN will tout them as a bubble team. Overall, Oral Roberts has had a great season, and great record, but they are victims of their schedule and conference, and while they deserve better, they will not get better. It's tragic for those kids who have worked their asses off. Hopefully, they will make a Run and get to Garden for the NIT Final Four.

Holy Shit! Oral Robers Loses the Mid Continent Tournament Final. Oakland a team at 12 - 18 is going to the Play in Game, but is making the Dance. Oral Robers even with a 25 - 7 record, may be completely shut out. This is the vice of Championship Week. The Tournament for Mid/Low Majors is their March Madness, but it can also shut out the clear Regular Season conference champion.

As far as St Mary's goes, here is a fuller tournament Resume. Wins: 25 (24 in the NCAA Selection Commitee's Eyes, cause wins over DII schools don't count.) Losses: 8 New RPI: 32 Old RPI: 38 Strength of Schedule 98 out of 330 Conference: West Coast Conference (WCC) Conference RPI: 7 Marquee Wins (Any Victory Over any Team in the Top 25 RPI): Gonzaga Key Wins (Any Victory Over any Team in the Top 100 RPI): San Fransisco (X2) Bad Losses (Any Defeat Aganist any Team with an RPI past 150, and any Series where you were swept aganist Conference Oppoents with an RPI Past 100): Rutgers, Santa Clara (X2) The Key things to look for. - The WCC has a RPI Ranking of 7. Usually those Rankings are reserved for Major Conferences like the Atlantic 10, CUSA and Mountain West. Though I don't consider the Missouri Valley, Western Athletic and WCC Mid Majors anymore, these conferences are usually in that "Near Major/High Mid Major" Void, where there RPI Rankings range from 10 - 12 any given year. (Meaning that an At-Large Bid can be received, if they schedule correctly, and win their key OOC games.) Being just behind the Power/BCS Conferences is major accomplishment for the WCC. No Doubts about it, this Conference is good. - The New RPI may give too much lean towards the Mid Majors, but St. Mary's is a true solid contender with a RPI of 32, and an old RPI 38. Usually Teams in the Top 50 are taken into the Big Dance as at Larges. Only Olkahoma in '94 was not taken, with a similar RPI. - Their Strength of Schedule is 98, which is in the top 70 Percentile for Division I hoops. They have a better SoS than Pacific (157), which is a 98% lock for the Tourney, if they take a dive in the Final. (And even if they lose eariler, they're still a 85 - 92% lock to make the tourney.) - Wins wise, they have the wins that a "Major" Conference (20+) member needs to make the tourney. Even if you do take away the DII win, 24 is still a very good number for this team aganist quality competition. Overall St Mary's, by the stats, overall performance, and playing a hard game last night has proven themselves worthy to get an At Large Bid, even if it is a double digit ranking, they do deserve it. Notes: - From Common Sense Alone, it is unusual for the 7th Best Conference to only send one Team to the NCAAs. - What could work aganist St. Mary's is Politics. Every Year, a Mid Major has a Amazing Season, by any standards. However, Conference Rankings, Strength of Schedules, and that one Key Loss (Utah State to UC Northridge) in the conference tournament, they are left to linger in the NIT. - AP and Coach Poll Rankings do not matter as much as the other stuff. Although 99% of Ranked Teams make it, Utah State set the Precident for Ranked Teams, not makiing it. (Utah State is the new Measuring Stick for all Mid/Low Major Bubble Teams.)

It's the Southern Conference, One of the Lowest of the Low when it comes to DI Baskbetball Conferneces. (Right there with the NEC, and MEAC) There is almost no chance that the SoCON EVER gets 2 Teams in due to weak schedules, and BAD RPI Ratings. And even though this seems like the year that a Mid Major will get a Pity Bid from the Selection Committee, it does not look like Davidson is that Team.

I think Syracuse will end that possibilty, but that's just me.

Yeah, I saw that happen to the Volenteers. Tenn was thinking that it was going to go home, at least looking good in its lost, then the Cardnials literally trashed them, and left them for dead. As for Kansas, they should've just called the game, and left for the Plane, after the monster Three that put them down by 30 was fired. After that, we all knew that Kansas lost, and they knew it too. I wonder what's going to happen to them in the Big 12, now. Do they look like OU upset bait to you now? With the way they're playing, I think so. As for Duke....I usually like Duke, but this year, Fuck Duke, they aren't shit either. This is the worst team since Duke '95, and just wait until they have to face the boys from Winston-Salem, and Chapel Hill. It's going to be an ugly exposition there too. You know what, I am a Syracuse Fan, and if we do go 14 - 2, 15 -1 (we're going to lose to either Pitt or UCONN, I'm sure), and win our Tournament, I hope the Selection Committee is stupid enough to put us as a 2 seed, and give us the same bracket as Olkahoma State as the 1 seed. I want a rematch, badly, as we got beat by the better team that night. But not the better team, overall. I want my Orangemen to show that the loss was an accident due to a shitty second half. So what does everyone think of VTech and Miami, not being the doormats in the ACC, yet?

I'm watching the game right now, and I am like, this isn't a loss, and it isn't even a beatdown. This is an massacre, in it's truest sense of the word. Kansas just got exposed , big time for the country to see. I've underestimated Villanova, and I forgot how good Jay Wright acutally is. I only shudder to think where Hofstra would be, if he had stayed.

Well. The Game is over. College Basketball, anyone?

I have to say that those are good points, but to counter argue for the sake of debate, not flaming. 1) Wasn't the BCS designed to take alot of the AP Power away in the first place? The AP has always been the championship that gets peoples panties in a bunch. 2) It's Division I A Football, logical and those 18 letters do not go together 90% of the time.

That's exactley the point I was trying to make. The Big East is not at fault here. But still, the Big East will be villified alot more than it has in College Sports already. There are going to be idiots calling for that bid now, even if the Big East wins the next 3 National Championships. (Highly unlikely, but trying to make an example.) The fault lies in an unfair, and exclusive Bowl System that favors those in power (Utah does not make things all better. It's one team out of 56 that's played in this series.), there is a way to make sure that 16 teams (with at least 10 of them being the best ones.) (8 is too short sighted, I'm sorry.), and protect the Bowl System. 16 Team Playoff (11 Automatic Bids with one going to each Conference, 5 At Large ones (California doesn't get screwed, Louisville, and Boise State get into the mix. Hell! Even Georgia and LSU or Iowa gets a shot.) ) Norte Dame has to be at least in the Top 11, to get one of the at large bids. Losers from the 1st Round and Quarter Finals all get transplanted into one of the 6 next major bowls besides the BCS. (Liberty, Peach, Capital One, OutBack, Gator, Cotton and Outback) Final 4 Teams play in 2 of the BCS Bowls (ex for this year Sugar and Rose) Semifinal Losers play in the Fiesta Bowl for the right to end the season as a winner Final 2 Teams would play in the Orange Bowl. Everyone else gets to go the Other Bowls like the NIT is now for Basketball. This system isn't perfect (no System is), and I bet someone is just waiting to pick out flaws. But it gives almost everyone a fair shot, and the most anyone plays is 17 games. (And since Division I A is supposed to be premeir Leauge of College Football, it's more than fair.) California is going to decapitate Texas Tech. And the score is going to be so horrible, that they will literally committ murder on the field.

Wow. California gets knocked down to the fucking Holiday Bowl. At least give them one of the other top 5 bowls. (Is the Holiday Bowl for the number 9th Team as always?). It's not fair that we will never EVER know who is the best team out of the 3 deserving (Hell, if you really want to make things interesting, 5.) teams to play for a National Title. For as much as I hate the SEC, that isn't fair to Auburn who went undefeated in a balls tough conference. Two points to realize. 1) Auburn can still win a share of the National Title. The Sports Writers do want a story, and if Auburn kicks the shit out Virginia Tech, they may just get it. 2) If this was going to be such a problem, they should've suspended the Big East bid for this year (ONLY this year.), the conference was gutted and raped (Well, you can still say the same thing for CUSA, but they're not in the BCS), did anyone expect it to be a good year?

I don't know what is more amazing. The fact that Auburn hasn't run up the score 42 - 21 with all the Yellow Flags Tennessee is just getting thrown at them? Or that Tennessee is still in this thing? (I hope Tennessee pulls off the upset. I want to see the collective fanbase of Auburn cry.) And the Big 12 Game, I only have 3 words. What the fuck? I would think that Colorado would at least SHOW UP. If this keeps up, they might as well Forefit. I hope the North has SOMEONE, ANYONE that's going to be better next year, or you might see Texas move to destroy the divisions.