Cheech Tremendous

Keith Law's Top 25 Prospects Matt Wieters tops the list, just ahead of Tampa Bay's David Price. Lots of Rays and Rangers on that list. Oh, and here's this: Keith Law's Organizational Rankings The Rangers system is stocked to a sick degree right now.

Quick back of the napkin math here on what Howard is actually worth versus his arbitration claim: His 50th percentile projection has him at .271/.379/.576 for 2009. That looks about right. With 547 at-bats he projects out at being worth 45 runs above a replacement-level player. Factor in below-average baserunning ability and a positional adjustment for 1B and he factors out at somewhere between 2.7 and 3.4 wins next year, depending on how you feel about his defense. UZR seems to think he's an average defender even if he may not look it. Let's give him the benefit of the doubt and say that's true. If so, Howard is worth 3.4 wins. At $4.4 million per win he's worth approximately $15 million on the open market. However, that figure supposes Howard is a free agent. Arbitration usually works on a 40/60/80 scale (first year arb players get 40% of market, second get 60%, etc.). That would have him worth $9 million. Even if we bump him a rung because of Super-2 status, he's still only at $12 million. Phillies should win this case, but we'll see. EDIT: By the way, I've gotten really good at figuring out how use the various projection systems out there to come up with expected offensive and defensive production. Once I have that, it's simple to figure out value. If you want me to take a look at any other players, just let me know.

He also said that he won't DH. He only wants to play outfield. I can't quite figure out why he'd want to limit his value like that when he's already having trouble finding offers. There are analysts out there that think he wants a one-year deal so that he can go back out in the market when the economy is better. Dunn may be worried that his value will diminish further if he's not seen as a player with an everyday position. Age aside, Dunn is basically equivalent to Ryan Howard in terms of offensive and defensive value. Dunn is finding it hard to even get an offer and Howard is asking for $18 million in his second year of arbitration. There is something not quite right about this picture. Yes, I understand why the system tends to work out like this, but it doesn't make it right.

Everyone try and get your second weigh-in to me in the next 24 hours. If I can figure out how to format a table I'll get that up by Friday.

I thought he'd already been pegged as the new Defensive Coordinator for the Raiders and was the leading candidate for the head coaching position as well. Either those reports were erroneous or Mr. Martindale has decided that being a linebackers coach for the Broncos is more prestigious. Ouch.

Been on a tear lately. Some of these I already owned, but I wanted them in a second format. TV on the Radio - Dear Science, Fleet Foxes - Sun Giant EP Fleet Foxes - Fleet Foxes The Raconteurs - Consolers of the Lonely Vampire Weekend - Vampire Weekend AC/DC - Black Ice Prince - Purple Rain Funkadelic - Maggot Brain The Clash - London Calling My Bloody Valentine - Loveless Sonic Youth - Daydream Nation Neil Young - Time Fades Away GZA - Liquid Swords Redman - Whut Thee Album Kanye West - 808s & Heartbreak

But there are many types of fans out there. This may work for you, but for me a title is not the be-all, end-all of my experience. I love the thrill of the hunt. For me, I live for the emotions and gamesmanship of free agency; the nailbiting at the trade deadline; sitting in front of the TV for four hours on a Tuesday night for a meaningless mid-season game; and arguing about the team over a pitcher of beer with some buddies at a bar. I just want to wake up every day and know that my team has a shot, any shot, to win a game. Of the three teams I actively follow I've gotten to see two titles during my lifetime (both in the last four years by the Red Sox). Sure, that moment when the last pitch was made is a special feeling that I'll have forever, but I'll admit that I was ready a week later for the offseason to start and the whole process to begin anew. I'd be miserable if the team decided to just tank it after '04. Watching the Raiders and Kings right now is a chore. Sure, there are no titles for either team, but even if they both had gotten them in early '00s I don't think this would be any easier to watch. I just can't get myself to care for mediocrity, no matter what the circumstances.

It's amazing that the Sox haven't gone to arbitration with any of their players since Theo took over. That's good business practice. Curt Schilling had a post the other day on SOSH about how ugly the whole process is, basically imploring to the Sox to avoid taking the emotional Papelbon into the hearings. In other arb news, Ryan Howard submitted a figure of $18 million! That guy is just determined to blow the doors off this whole process.

You think so? Of the 16 people competing, I'd only say that about six of them sound fat. I would have imagined that number being a lot higher.

The Red Sox avoided arbitration with Jonathon Papelbon by signing him to a one-year, $6.25 million contract. That is the largest deal ever for a pitcher, starter or reliever, in their first year of arb. In fact, it will be the third largest first-year contract in history after Miggy Cabrera in 2007 and Ryan Howard in 2008.

Barry Bonds put up the single greatest playoff performance ever during the 2002 run. In the World Series alone he had an OPS of 1.994. 1.994! He did everything physically possible to win that year and his team let him down. I don't see that as a blemish at all.

But unfortunately the media and fans like to lump the two together. Today, Donovan McNabb is a choker because he hasn't won a title. Instead of praising a player that lead a team to five title games, he's seen as soft. Problem is, I don't remember looking at any of those games and saying to myself that they would have definitely won with a different quarterback. Barkley, Malone, Stockton, Ewing... those guys were all great players, but ultimately came up ringless because of the era they played in. Does anyone think they're are chokers? Do we think that their career is any less because they never won the big one? I don't think we should. They are victims of the era they played in. For some reason, loss = choke in most people's mind, without anyone bothering to take into account the circumstances under which their loss occurred.

This is a good example of the media giving a pass to a player because of a title. Peyton has shit the bed in every other playoff run save for that one year they won the title. Is he a choker or not? Even Brady, with his three titles, has some blemishes on the record (the turd they laid against Denver, the Indy chokejob and the SuperBowl no-show). I don't know what my point is other than a ring seems to make us lose sight of the talents of the player. McNabb has had his team right there. If they get over the hump even once why does that change his entire body of work (work which shows him to be a future Hall of Famer)?

All you have to do is look at the Phoenix Suns to see how the mentality of "must win title" can quickly doom a franchise. Go back one year and they have the best record in the NBA and are coming off several seasons as title contenders. But just because they couldn't win the big one you see most of the roster shipped out of town, D'Antoni fired and the whole team philosophy changed. Now they are mediocre and have the sort of roster that's going to be awful in a year or two. Great example of a GM out thinking himself and believing that it was the players and the philosophy that kept them from a title. Steve Nash isn't any less of a player today because he came up short against a better team in San Antonio.

Here is some of the discussion that took place in the other thread: I'd much rather root for an organization that put a winning team on the field every year than one that wins a title and then holes up for the next decade. I understand the expression "flags fly forever" but I don't see how my enjoyment is improved today by knowing that my team won a title five or ten years ago. Jumping across sports here, but I'd be happy with the Red Sox throwing out a 90-95 win team each year even if they didn't have the two titles this decade. I like rooting for the chance that the team can break through. Also I don't get how you can evaluate "players" in terms of championships. Last time I checked, football, baseball and basketball were "team" sports. Eli didn't win a title because he has some innate ability to win big games. He won because his defense shredded everyone. He won because he has a phenomenal running game. He won because of a tremendous receiving corps anchored by one the game's best wideouts. He dis his part, but I don't know how that ring on his finger makes him any better as a QB than McNabb when their respective circumstances weren't the same. Yes, it does. Relying on blind luck is not a good business model. That's why teams spend millions upon millions in free agency and getting ready for the draft. I'm not saying I agree with it but let's face it, it has now become the measuring stick for all quarterbacks. It's the strike they were trying to place on Dan Marino. No one pays attention to the talent, hell no one pays much attention to the GAME when it is over. All they seem to care about is which quarterback left with the ring. I'd STILL take Donovan over Eli even without the ring. Cause that receiving corps in NY that game saved Eli's ass about a dozen times and that was a true statement for a long time. He is improving more and more everyday though so it's not even a strike against Eli.

Split from discussion in the NFL Offseason thread. What's the most important thing when evaluating a player? Since the ultimate goal is winning a title, should that be the measuring stick? How much is the responsibility of the player and how much belongs to the team? Is it prudent that an organization just try and put a competitive product on the field, or should they be constantly turning over the roster in an attempt to build a championship-caliber team?

I'd much rather root for an organization that put a winning team on the field every year than one that wins a title and then holes up for the next decade. I understand the expression "flags fly forever" but I don't see how my enjoyment is improved today by knowing that my team won a title five or ten years ago. Jumping across sports here, but I'd be happy with the Red Sox throwing out a 90-95 win team each year even if they didn't have the two titles this decade. I like rooting for the chance that the team can break through. Also I don't get how you can evaluate "players" in terms of championships. Last time I checked, football, baseball and basketball were "team" sports. Eli didn't win a title because he has some innate ability to win big games. He won because his defense shredded everyone. He won because he has a phenomenal running game. He won because of a tremendous receiving corps anchored by one the game's best wideouts. He dis his part, but I don't know how that ring on his finger makes him any better as a QB than McNabb when their respective circumstances weren't the same.

Follow up from MLBTR:

Fair enough, but I don't care that it was my topic that was closed. It's just that there was obviously a need for one and the fact that it was overlooked bothered me a bit. I've said it before, I like the mods a lot, but the fact we can't get one of the 14 to be somewhat proactive about this sort of thing irks me. So 909 explained what happened, but I still think he could have siphoned off the few posts that were going in the Circle Jerk thread and put them in their own topic, be it mine or someone else's.

I'm not going to go off on another mega-thread tangent, but I did find the act of closing a thread-worthy topic to be somewhat suspicious. This whole area of the board is supposedly for feedback to the mods (since the Ombudsman thing is a joke), so I requested feedback. Maybe I just have my panties in a bunch this morning, but I find the Barack thread unnecessary and the name ridiculous.

Keeping this stupid thread open and closing the separate topic made for Inauguration Day was a bad move. It's funny that the mods say they don't want mega-threads, but that policy doesn't really hold when it doesn't fit their own interests.

[Rolling Stone]But Aretha Franklin is the greatest rock singer of all time![/Rolling Stone] I really hope Obama knocks one out of the park today. This whole event has received a disgusting amount of coverage. He needs something memorable to avoid a backlash for the ardent support he's been getting.

Probably deserves its own thread guys. I'm not going to be able to watch due to work commitments. Hopefully someone can provide some running updates.

KKC likes to board hard at a .08 BAC; KOAB doesn't even turn on his computer unless he's hit .15.

Thankfully it wasn't a picture of your dick. Or was that a picture of your dick?!