The Man in Blak

Flik, as far as the WDI league goes, you have a very convenient "problem." There are no guarantees for points across the lineup in a deep 15-team league, but you've got two (potentially three) competent backs for next week. As you said, Westbrook is a lock, but Rudi Johnson has a very favorable matchup against Cleveland's DEF, who's given up a whopping eight rushing touchdowns this year already (only New Orleans have given up more). Cap that off with 114.6 rushing yards allowed per game (roughly in the middle of the league), and Johnson makes an excellent play. Suggs isn't bad either - even though the perceived "RB-by-committee" approach and the Browns' overall terrible play is rightfully scaring everybody away, Suggs is apparently (and inexplicably) the man for the job in Cleveland and he's got a favorable matchup in the Bengals, who are dead last in the league in rushing yards allowed (165.8 yards per game).

The Green Bay offense is good, other than Ahman's fumbl-itis. The defense, however...

Actually, I think either match-up would present an interesting NLCS for the Cardinals. The Braves and the Cardinals were both picked to finish third in their various division, both have managers that will make the games interesting (plus, you have the minor J.D. Drew/Jason Marquis trade undercurrent). Meanwhile the Astros were left for dead and have come back with a lot of veterans (Bagwell, Biggio) who are desperately looking for one real shot at the World Series. Both make tough matchups for St. Louis, with Houston providing slightly more difficulty than Atlanta, I think.

I think the rules are good - it just gets down to consistent enforcement, which the NFL hasn't even come close to reaching in the first five weeks of the season.

PUJOLS~!

You're going to indict Angels/Twins on the claim of it not being "something new"? With Yankees/Red Sox on the horizon?

I meant in the "hideously underwhelming rematch" context of Rock/Hogan, not the actual results of the match. It would be pretty damn funny if New York just went out and won all three games at Fenway, though.

Well, I'm sure it would have been appealing to Twins and Angels fans. But they're obviously not a big part of Fox's target demographic, so fuck 'em.

Collins is a great pickup, with Gannon looking to be toast for the year, and he's especially a great pickup against the Colts. The only situation where I might not drop Roethlisberger for Collins would be in a keeper league. As for Dillon/Moore/Stecker, it depends on your scoring system: if your league counts TDs only, then go with Mewelde Moore, as Dillon hasn't been a goal line option and Moore has the much better matchup. If you've got yardage in the equation, then go with Dillon - I'd guess that New England will play more ball control this week, just to wear that defense out, so Dillon's number will be called frequently.

I'll go the Rock/Hogan-rematch route and predict the Red Sox in five.

Right, everyone who forgot that Lima was 9-1 at home and that Matt Morris has a 6.02 ERA on the road.

The fact that Pat Borders was even on the Twins roster should give you a good indication of how well equipped they were for the playoffs. I cringe to think of how differently the series would have gone with Joe Mauer in there. This one sucked. From the phantom tag on Jacque Jones, to Rincon's meltdown...this one was just depressing. But hey, "America asked for it - Yankees/Red Sox", as the wonderful people at Fox said roughly 100 times.

One part of me really wishes that Morris would have parked a fastball in Lima's grill when he first came up to bat, just for all of those ridiculous theatrics he does. Another part of me applauds that the guy has literally resurrected his career and had a chance to shine on the biggest stage in the sport. Overall, exactly what I predicted happened - we got in trouble when Morris fell behind with some baserunners (and a momentary thanks to the umpires who blew TWO calls in the Lima Bunt fiasco) and they put some on him early. And Lima, who's been an ace at home all season, did exactly what I figured he'd do - steal one from the Cardinals.

I hope this series finally gets it into the Twins' skull that Jacque Jones should not be playing in the outfield on an everyday basis.

Well, it's not like Astros fans had a lot to cheer about before September.

You're going to run out of liquor very quickly.

Just did some additional research on that - if it weren't for a couple of tough losses in September (Marquis did fairly poorly with both catchers that month), Marquis would have been 7-0 with Molina and 8-7 with Matheny...which is probably where I got the perception that Molina was the better catcher. Though half a run in ERA certainly isn't sneezeworthy.

Los Angeles basically handed the Cardinals the game last night, between Milton Bradley's hijinks in the outfield, the blown pickoff throw, the choke against Eldred with the bases loaded...seriously, we caught some huge breaks there. And just out of curiosity - what's Marquis' stats when Matheny catches him, versus the games where Yadier Molina catches?

Maybe it's just me, but the album seems a little too polished - tracks like the Fire suite ("Mrs. O'Leary's Cow") and "Heroes and Villains" really suffered in the re-recording process, and I'm far from being an analog-worshipping purist. Oh, and I'm not a big fan of the new "Good Vibrations" either. (The altered lyrics stink.) The content is still there and it's still remarkable...but the presentation and production left a lot to be desired, in my opinion.

Through all of the games before today, here's the current standings, by my count: ------------------------------------------------------ SMELL THE RATINGS! * 2B - Marcus Giles (2/10, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 SB) * 3B - Scott Rolen (0/6, 1 R) * OF - Gary Sheffield (1/7, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI) * OF - Manny Ramirez (3/8, 3 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI) * SP - Pedro Martinez (1 W, 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 6 K, 2 BB) * SP - Javier Vasquez * CL - Mariano Rivera (2.2 IP, 2 H, 2 K) Alkeiper * 2B - Marcus Giles (2/10, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 SB) * 3B - Adrian Beltre (3/8, 1 R) * OF - Lance Berkman (3/10, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI) * OF - J.D. Drew (1/8) * SP - Pedro Martinez (1 W, 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 6 K, 2 BB) * SP - Roy Ozwalt (6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 4 K, 1 BB) * CL - John Smoltz (3 IP, 3 K, 2 BB) the pinjockey * 2B - Jeff Kent (1/9, 1 RBI) * 3B - Alex Rodriguez (6/10, 2 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI) * OF - Vladimir Guerrero (1/8, 2 RBI) * OF - Gary Sheffield (1/7, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI) * SP - Pedro Martinez (1 W, 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 6 K, 2 BB) * SP - Roger Clemens (1 W, 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 7 K, 6 BB) * CL - Brad Lidge (2.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 K, 1 BB) The Man in Blak * 2B - Tony Womack (1/10, 1 R, 1 RBI) * 3B - Scott Rolen (0/6, 1 R) * OF - Larry Walker (3/8, 3 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI) * OF - Hideki Matsui (3/8, 1 RBI) * SP - Roy Ozwalt (6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 4 K, 1 BB) * SP - Roger Clemens (1 W, 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 7 K, 6 BB) * CL - Mariano Rivera (2.2 IP, 2 H, 2 K) Team Stats: STR: .207 BA, 6 R, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 1 SB, 1 W, 0 SV, 6 K, 2.79 ERA, 1.03 WHIP ALK: .250 BA, 3 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 SB, 1 W, 0 SV, 13 K, 2.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP PIN: .265 BA, 3 R, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 0 SB, 2 W, 0 SV, 16 K, 3.24 ERA, 1.50 WHIP MIB: .219 BA, 5 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, 1 W, 0 SV, 13 K, 1.69 ERA, 1.50 WHIP Team Ranks: (higher the better) STR: 1 BA, 4 R, 3 HR, 3.5 RBI, 3.5 SB, 2 W, 2.5 SV, 1 K, 2 ERA, 4 WHIP ALK: 3 BA, 1.5 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 3.5 SB, 2 W, 2.5 SV, 2.5 K, 3 ERA, 3 WHIP PIN: 4 BA, 1.5 R, 3 HR, 3.5 RBI, 1.5 SB, 4 W, 2.5 SV, 4 K, 1 ERA, 1.5 WHIP MIB: 2 BA, 3 R, 3 HR, 2 RBI, 1.5 SB, 2 W, 2.5 SV, 2.5 K, 4 ERA, 1.5 WHIP Overall Rank: 1:Smell the Ratings! - 26.5 (-1.5) 2:the pinjockey - 26.5 (-2.0) 3:The Man in Blak - 24.0 (+1.5) 4:Alkeiper - 23.0 (+2.0)

Milton Bradley absolutely destroys a high Marquis meatball to tie it up at 3-3. As Tim McCarver would say (but didn't), that ball got fucked.

Through all of the games before today, here's the current standings, by my count: ------------------------------------------------------ SMELL THE RATINGS! * 2B - Marcus Giles (1/5, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 SB) * 3B - Scott Rolen (0/2, 1 R) * OF - Gary Sheffield (1/7, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI) * OF - Manny Ramirez (3/8, 3 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI) * SP - Pedro Martinez (1 W, 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 6 K, 2 BB) * SP - Javier Vasquez * CL - Mariano Rivera (2.2 IP, 2 H, 2 K) Alkeiper * 2B - Marcus Giles (1/5, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 SB) * 3B - Adrian Beltre (2/4, 1 R) * OF - Lance Berkman (2/5, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI) * OF - J.D. Drew (0/3) * SP - Pedro Martinez (1 W, 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 6 K, 2 BB) * SP - Roy Ozwalt * CL - John Smoltz the pinjockey * 2B - Jeff Kent (1/5, 1 RBI) * 3B - Alex Rodriguez (6/10, 2 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI) * OF - Vladimir Guerrero (1/8, 2 RBI) * OF - Gary Sheffield (1/7, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI) * SP - Pedro Martinez (1 W, 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 6 K, 2 BB) * SP - Roger Clemens (1 W, 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 7 K, 6 BB) * CL - Brad Lidge The Man in Blak * 2B - Tony Womack (0/5) * 3B - Scott Rolen (0/2, 1 R) * OF - Larry Walker (2/4, 2 R, 2 HR, 2 RBI) * OF - Hideki Matsui (3/8, 1 RBI) * SP - Roy Ozwalt * SP - Roger Clemens (1 W, 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 7 K, 6 BB) * CL - Mariano Rivera (2.2 IP, 2 H, 2 K) Team Stats: STR: .250 BA, 6 R, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 1 SB, 1 W, 0 SV, 6 K, 2.89 ERA, 1.09 WHIP ALK: .294 BA, 3 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 SB, 1 W, 0 SV, 6 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.14 WHIP PIN: .300 BA, 3 R, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 0 SB, 2 W, 0 SV, 13 K, 3.21 ERA, 1.43 WHIP MIB: .263 BA, 3 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB, 1 W, 0 SV, 9 K, 1.93 ERA, 1.63 WHIP Team Ranks: (higher the better) STR: 1 BA, 4 R, 3 HR, 3.5 RBI, 3.5 SB, 2 W, 2.5 SV, 1.5 K, 3 ERA, 4 WHIP ALK: 3 BA, 2 R, 1 HR, 1.5 RBI, 3.5 SB, 2 W, 2.5 SV, 1.5 K, 1 ERA, 3 WHIP PIN: 4 BA, 2 R, 3 HR, 3.5 RBI, 1.5 SB, 4 W, 2.5 SV, 4 K, 2 ERA, 2 WHIP MIB: 2 BA, 2 R, 3 HR, 1.5 RBI, 1.5 SB, 2 W, 2.5 SV, 3 K, 4 ERA, 1 WHIP Overall Rank: 1: the pinjockey - 28.5 2:Smell the Ratings! - 28.0 3:The Man in Blak - 22.5 4:Alkeiper - 21.0

... So, yeah. I know Jesse Crain has a horrible K/BB rate and he's young, but I tend to subscribe to the theory that having a live arm is better than a dead arm. The four pitches to Jeter weren't even remotely close and that should have been signal enough for Gardenhire to get the hook, converted starter or no.

You know, the fact that a reliever can pitch himself into a save situation by stinking up the joint is pretty worthless as well. If Jorge Julio comes in with a four run lead to mop stuff up, gives up a two-run homer, and then finishes the game, I really don't think he deserves a save, since the "save situation" was self-manufactured.

I think the idea behind saves is a very good one - you want to reward pitchers that succeed in high-leverage situations. The problem with the save is in the defined context of a "save situation", where too much weight is placed upon finishing the game. Here's an example: Danny Graves can come into the ninth inning with a 6-5 lead and get three outs for the save, but Ryan Wagner wouldn't get a save from coming into a seventh inning situation with the same score and retiring three batters while runners are in scoring position. Wagner's situation is considerably more dangerous: we can quantify this by using Tangotiger's Win Expectancy metric (I tried to find a better link for this concept, but this will have to do): Wagner's Situation: - Bottom of 8th, 6-5 lead, runners on 2nd and 3rd, no outs - Opponent's Initial Win Expectancy: 68.2% - Opponent's Win Expectancy after 1 out: 54.6% - Opponent's Win Expectancy after 2 outs: 33.4% - Opponent's Win Expectancy after 3 outs: 19.4% - Net Change in Win Expectancy: 48.8% Graves' Situation: - Bottom of 9th, 6-5 lead, no outs - Opponent's Initial Win Expectancy: 19.4% - Opponent's Win Expectancy after 1 out: 10.8% - Opponent's Win Expectancy after 2 outs: 4.2% - Opponent's Win Expectancy after 3 outs: 0 ('cause the game's over) - Net Change in Win Expectancy: 19.4% Win Expectancy is a fairly intuitive concept - a team's Win Expectancy percentage at a given point in the game is the percentage chance that the team will win that game. By getting out of that jam, Ryan Wagner gave the Reds increased their chances of winning that game by 48.8%. Despite closing out the game and ensuring the win (100% Win Expectancy), Danny Graves only increased their chances of winning the game by 19.4%. However, in this scenario, Graves would get the save, despite the fact that both pitchers retired the same number of batters - three - and that Wagner had much more of an impact on the game by retiring his three batters in a much more dangerous situation. Wagner gets the consolation "hold" statistic. The save does well to have some context, but it doesn't have enough to really legitimize it as a measure of a good pitcher and, by adding an additional statistic for holds, baseball only increases the confusion. What makes it even worse is that the entire philosophy of "save situations" has subconsciously influenced managers into holding their best relievers out of high-leverage situations.