So who voted for Arnold?

[Jobber of the Week 0]

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?.../09/MN83136.DTL

 

Gov.-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger garnered more votes Tuesday than Gov. Gray Davis gained in his re-election last year, winning support from a diverse mix of voters from conservative Republicans to some of California's most reliable Democrats.

 

Schwarzenegger appealed to a wide swath of the state's Democratic-leaning electorate: low-income families, independents, union households, moderate women, infrequent voters, young adults and a surprisingly large number of Latinos.

 

An analysis of exit poll data released late Tuesday revealed some surprises:

 

-- Despite a more than $10 million effort by labor unions to defeat the recall and back Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, Schwarzenegger drew nearly as many votes from union households as the Democratic lieutenant governor.

 

-- Davis was backed by just over half of Latinos in the recall despite his last-minute efforts to appeal to the state's largest minority group -- including signing a bill to give illegal immigrants the right to driver's licenses and appointing United Farm Workers founder Dolores Huerta to the University of California Board of Regents.

 

-- New or "occasional" voters tilted heavily in favor of the recall and for Schwarzenegger. But contrary to some predictions, voters age 18-29 were less likely than older voters to back the action movie hero.

 

-- The poorest voters -- families making less than $15,000 -- were more likely to back Schwarzenegger than his chief Democratic opponent, Bustamante.

 

-- Women of every age group strongly backed Schwarzenegger despite allegations the actor groped or sexually harassed more than a dozen women.

 

Breakdowns of four significant voter groups -- Latinos, women, union members and new voters -- reflect the sweeping nature of the moderate Republican's victory and Davis' defeat.

 

 

LATINOS

Latinos were heavily courted by all the major candidates -- and for good reason. Exit polls showed Latinos made up as much as 18 percent of the electorate, the largest percentage in a statewide election in California history.

 

Latinos were such an electoral prize that they sparked a racially tinged feud between the candidates over the issue of illegal immigration.

 

Schwarzenegger accused Davis of pandering to win Latino votes when the governor signed a bill he had twice vetoed to allow undocumented workers to gain driver's licenses. Davis and Bustamante portrayed Schwarzenegger as anti- immigrant for his support of the 1994 anti-illegal immigrant initiative, Proposition 187, authored by the co-chairman of the actor's campaign, former Republican Gov. Pete Wilson.

 

But exit polls and interviews with voters found that Schwarzenegger was largely inoculated against the Democrats' "anti-immigrant" charge because of his experience as an immigrant from Austria who made it big as a bodybuilder and movie star.

 

Though exit polls showed that 54 percent of Latinos voted against the recall, and 52 percent chose Bustamante as their replacement candidate, the margin of Latino support for Democrats was substantially lower than it has been in past elections. In his re-election last year, Davis won 65 percent of Latinos to just 24 percent for Republican Bill Simon.

 

The 31 percent of Latinos who voted for Schwarzenegger combined with the 9 percent who selected Tom McClintock adds up to surprisingly hefty support for Republicans, observed Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo.

 

"I'm sure it's being noted in the Bush White House right now," DiCamillo said. "When you look back at 1998, when Davis got 78 percent of the Latino vote and (Republican gubernatorial candidate Dan) Lungren got 18 percent, that's 5-to-1 (for the Democrat). To go from 5-to-1 to 5-to-4 -- and with a Latino candidate -- no one would have predicted it."

 

Election-day interviews at El Mercadito, a popular three-story shopping center in East Los Angeles, where patrons can buy anything from new cowboy hats and track suits to menudo and goblets of fresh ceviche, revealed an apparent generational divide among Latino voters -- the older ones planned to retain Davis and vote for Bustamante, but the younger ones mostly sought a change.

 

Again and again, those who were seeking a change mentioned Davis' decision to triple the vehicle license fee as a primary reason for their dissatisfaction.

 

"I'm voting for the recall," said Homer Resendez, 25, of Carson, who owns Marco's Goods, where he sells cowboy-style clothing. "He killed us on the budget, he raised up the car tax.

 

"My dad, he wants Davis to be governor, so he's not voting for the recall," he continued. "Some people want to keep Davis -- the older generation. (But) we want someone new, someone with new ideas, not someone from the past. We want change."

 

Democratic strategist Bill Carrick said the Spanish language media has hammered Davis for refusing to sign the driver's license bill in past years. By signing it late, it looked like pandering.

 

"He was seen as a reluctant supporter," Carrick said. "On the other hand, many who have anti-immigrant sentiments saw him as too close to the immigrant community. He got the worst of both worlds."

 

Davis may have paid a price: Exit polls showed that 70 percent of voters disapproved of the driver's license law, while only 24 percent favored it.

 

 

UNION MEMBERS

When Davis realized the recall could end his political career, he turned to his most reliable ally: labor. In early August, he flew to Chicago for an AFL- CIO meeting and asked for $10 million in donations from the unions to defeat the recall.

 

The unions delivered. As of Tuesday, labor had spent about $10.8 million on the election -- including about $6.9 million against the recall and about $3.9 million for Bustamante and his anti-Proposition 54 committee.

 

But despite the millions of dollars for TV ads and the extensive get-out- the-vote operation, the union vote fell flat Tuesday. Nearly half of union households backed the recall, and among union members, support for saving Davis was an unimpressive 55 percent to 45 percent. Union members preferred Bustamante to Schwarzenegger by just 44 percent to 37 percent -- even though the actor derided unions during the campaign as "special interests."

 

Chris Carr, 32, of Alameda, a BART operator and union member interviewed Tuesday, reflected the lackluster labor support for Davis: "He probably made some mistakes, but we put him in and we should live with it," he said.

 

Rose Ann DeMoro, executive director of the California Nurses Association, blamed labor leaders for delivering a muddled message to the rank-and-file.

 

"They first came out and said, 'We will punish any Democrat who runs,' and then two weeks later, they are saying, 'Vote for Bustamante,' " DeMoro said. "It caused a tremendous amount of confusion among working people."

 

But other analysts believed Democrats and Latinos primarily voted for Schwarzenegger out of anxiety over the state's economy. Exit polls showed that 83 percent of voters surveyed said the economy was "not so good" or "poor."

 

"It explains how this recall went from being a partisan affair to bringing in more moderate and independent voters, Latino voters, union households and groups that really cut across party lines," said Mark Baldassare of the Public Policy Institute of California.

 

 

WOMEN

In the waning days of the campaign, Democrats tried to make the recall a referendum on Schwarzenegger's past treatment of women. Davis suggested the actor had committed a crime of sexual battery and could be investigated by law enforcement. Bustamante urged voters to think about his three daughters as they went to the polls.

 

It didn't stick.

 

Though the actor's numbers were higher among men, he beat Bustamante among every age group of women. He was backed by 71 percent of Republican women, 41 percent of independent women and even 20 percent of Democratic women. More than half of women backed the recall.

 

Most female voters interviewed Tuesday seemed more interested in his views than his salacious past -- and Schwarzenegger's moderate positions on abortion and gay rights broadened his appeal.

 

Sixty-five percent of state voters said abortion should be legal in most or all cases, and they split evenly between Schwarzenegger and Bustamante -- neutralizing an issue Democrats have wielded as a club against Republicans.

 

Many of Schwarzenegger's female supporters said they felt the last-minute allegations were part of a smear campaign.

 

"Why didn't they come forward (before)?" asked Republican Sue Adams, 42, of Oakland's Montclair neighborhood.

 

Republican strategist Allan Hoffenblum said Schwarzenegger's support dipped briefly after the Los Angeles Times first reported the allegations, but rebounded before the election.

 

"I think it did hurt him with some women, but a lot of women made their mind up early and stuck with him. They were able to rationalize that was the old Arnold and he wouldn't do that anymore," he said. "And then the Adolf Hitler thing came down and it started to look like a typical, last-minute Democratic smear campaign. They thought this whole thing was being overblown and exaggerated."

 

 

NEW VOTERS

Schwarzenegger's backers predicted he could cruise to election victory on a wave of new and occasional voters -- just as young, mostly male first-time voters swept feather boa-clad pro wrestler Jesse Ventura into the governor's mansion in Minnesota.

 

Schwarzenegger also did well among men -- especially young men. He drew his highest level of support from male voters age 30-44, garnering 58 percent support. Many of those men came of age just as Schwarzenegger was becoming a box office hit for his roles in "Conan the Barbarian" and "The Terminator."

 

But somewhat surprisingly, the Republican drew much less support from the state's youngest voters: Among those age 18-29, he only outdrew Bustamante 43 to 35 percent. Among 25- to 29-year-olds, Bustamante held an edge of 2 percentage points.

 

Baldassare said younger voters are more likely to be immigrants or minorities, and would be less likely than white voters to back Schwarzenegger.

 

However, new or infrequent voters were clearly enamored with Schwarzenegger's celebrity-fueled campaign. Voters who said they rarely or never vote backed him 53 percent to 30 percent.

 

Democrat Marcus Brown, 19, a first-time voter from Oakland, cast his ballot against the recall but voted for Schwarzenegger. For Brown, it was a pocketbook issue: The actor has promised to lower the car tax.

 

"I'm trying to get a car. He was going to change the registration (fee). It's like $400 now," Brown said.

[Firestarter 0]

Read this earlier, but it's absolutely fascinating. I don't know what kind of impact this will have on future elections, though, because Davis was such an aberrantly godawful governor and Schwarzenegger was such an aberrantly likeable and famous candidate. Anyway, thanks for posting it.

[kkktookmybabyaway 0]

I swear Tony Snow on "That News Channel" was getting a woody when showing how much better Arnold did than most Republican candidates in attracting minority votes in California.

 

The real fun is going to come when Arnold has to cut spending and special interests from every side of the aisle start howling in protest. This isn't going to be pretty...

[Firestarter 0]

The real fun is going to come when Arnold has to cut spending and special interests from every side of the aisle start howling in protest. This isn't going to be pretty...

Everyone's saying that, and trying to analyse how much it will affect him and where, but what I find more interesting than all the analyses is the fact that everyone believes they will be relevant - ie, that Schwarzenegger really will cut spending and snub special interests. It's been a long time since I saw such a strong and inadvertent display of faith in any politician. I hope he doesn't disappoint y'all.

[kkktookmybabyaway 0]

I'll believe it when I see it. I gave up on government cutting spending years ago.

 

However, if Arnold gets bogged down with this bureaucratic sh*t, I think he would be able to root out these obstacles if he presents to the voters all the wasteful spending and who is letting it go on, and then the voters will clean house come the next election, giving Arnold a better chance to reign in the budget...

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

There'll be a recall Arnold campaign in 100 days.

 

Not saying it's right or wrong, but it'll be damned entertaining to watch.

[kkktookmybabyaway 0]

Some bitter, bald Dem consultant already said on TV that he's already started.

 

Man will this tactic backfire, and backfire big.

 

So I say go right ahead with the Recall Arnold Movement...

[NoCalMike 0]

Arnold ran as an "outsider" as someone who is "tired of politicians" I guess the masses bought into it.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Recall attempts have happened. Twice when Reagan was Governor, and another when Pete Wilson was governor.

[Guest JMA]

The thing about Arnold is that he IS the American Dream. He's an immigrant who came to this country and worked hard to become who he is today. He first became a bodybuilder, then an actor, and now governor of a major state. He's pretty inspiring, actually. Add on the fact that he won't pander to religious groups or big business and we have ourselves a winner. He appeals to liberal, conservative, AND moderate voters as well. Almost everyone likes Arnold. And why shouldn't they?

 

Frankly, I couldn't care less whether he's a Republican, Democrat, Independent, or Libertarian. Which is not to say I was for the recall. On the contrary, I was against it. Still, I'm glad Arnold won. The tactics employed against Arnold made me glad that I'm a left-leaning Independent.

[NoCalMike 0]

The thing about Arnold is that he IS the American Dream. He's an immigrant who came to this country and worked hard to become who he is today. He first became a bodybuilder, then an actor, and now governor of a major state. He's pretty inspiring, actually. Add on the fact that he won't pander to religious groups or big business and we have ourselves a winner. He appeals to liberal, conservative, AND moderate voters as well. Almost everyone likes Arnold. And why shouldn't they?

 

Frankly, I couldn't care less whether he's a Republican, Democrat, Independent, or Libertarian. Which is not to say I was for the recall. On the contrary, I was against it. Still, I'm glad Arnold won. The tactics employed against Arnold made me glad that I'm a left-leaning Independent.

Whoa.....slow down there cowboy. Yes everyone "loves" him today, but it remains to be seen what effect, if any he will have and how much people will still love him after the 100 day honeymoon is over.

[Guest JMA]

Whoa.....slow down there cowboy. Yes everyone "loves" him today, but it remains to be seen what effect, if any he will have and how much people will still love him after the 100 day honeymoon is over.

It may sound cliche (and it is) but I trust Arnold to do the right thing. The only thing that pisses me off is how people like Issa, Hannity, and O'Reilly are trying to ride on Arnold's gravy train. I doubt these respective douchebags will still be on his side when he actually starts to make changes as governor.

[Guest Agent of Oblivion]

If I were in California, I would've voted for him just because it's Arnold Schwarzenegger.

 

The way I see it, every politician is a crook, so I might as well vote for the ones I like.

[Stephen Joseph 0]

What I find funny is people wondering how he can cut taxes and cut spending and balance the budget.

 

Shoot. It's like every analyst on popular news has never heard of a Laffer Curve nor asked where California is on it.

 

Dummies.

[NoCalMike 0]

Whoa.....slow down there cowboy.  Yes everyone "loves" him today, but it remains to be seen what effect, if any he will have and how much people will still love him after the 100 day honeymoon is over.

It may sound cliche (and it is) but I trust Arnold to do the right thing. The only thing that pisses me off is how people like Issa, Hannity, and O'Reilly are trying to ride on Arnold's gravy train. I doubt these respective douchebags will still be on his side when he actually starts to make changes as governor.

You must have missed Hannity the other night. He already started waivering on Arnold a bit.

[kkktookmybabyaway 0]

Was that when the former LA mayor, who's on Arnold's staff, brought up the possibility of raising taxes?...

[Guest Salacious Crumb]

Actually I heard that there were 4 separate attempts to recall Wilson.

 

I doubt a recall against Arnold will work b/c it only worked against Davis b/c he was so unpopular.

[PsychoDriver 0]

Don't blame me, I voted for Coleman.

 

Actually I did vote for Arnold, Well he was going to win anyway!

[Firestarter 0]

Desperate Dems No Match for Arnie by Mark Steyn. Brilliant column on the smear campaign against Governor-elect Schwarzenegger, the media's starring role in the muckraking, and what it says about the future of the Democratic Party.

 

Some highlights:

 

"On the CNN Web site, even after Gray Davis had conceded, they were sticking to the loser's talking-points:

'Schwarzenegger, who, like Hitler, is a native of Austria...'

CNN? Oh, that's that network with Larry King, who, like the Son of Sam, is a native of Brooklyn. Used to be owned by Ted Turner, who, like the Cincinnati Strangler, is a native of Cincinnati. Now part of Time Warner, founded by the Warner Brothers, the oldest of whom, Harry Warner, like many Auschwitz guards, was a native of Poland...

Remind me never to complain about 'liberal media bias' again. Right now, liberal media bias is conspiring to assist the Democrats to sleepwalk over the cliff...

The new line was that the recall reflected a voter anger against incumbents that would spell disaster for Bush next year. And even as I lay on the floor howling with laughter, up there on CNN Judy Woodruff & Co. were taking it seriously. That would be the Judy Woodruff who, like 1970s serial killer Lendell Hunter, is a native of Augusta, GA...

Just to recap: Republicans 62 percent, Democrats 31.7 percent - in the most liberal state in the nation. As long as all those angry voters keep expressing their anger by voting for Republicans over Democrats by two to one, I think I can live with it."

[godthedog 0]

That would be the Judy Woodruff who, like 1970s serial killer Lendell Hunter, is a native of Augusta, GA...

cool, i'm a native of augusta too.

 

no, i don't have anything intelligent to add.

[Jobber of the Week 0]

I just did a search for Hitler on cnn.com organized by date.

 

That phrase doesn't appear in a one of them. I'll give the author the benefit of the doubt that it was there at one point or another, but it sounds like he's taking it out of context. It could be quite possible they were talking about the allegations/smearing/whatever, and not just casually mentioning that he comes from Hitler's home country for no reason whatsoever.

[Firestarter 0]

I just did a search for Hitler on cnn.com organized by date.

 

That phrase doesn't appear in a one of them. I'll give the author the benefit of the doubt that it was there at one point or another

You don't have to. This is the beautiful thing about the Internet: you can't run. You can't hide. And you can't even lie for very long.

 

CNN pulled that article from their website pretty quickly, but they got caught. And other sites still have that article up. Just do a Google search for the phrase, and it'll pop up on half a dozen news sites.

 

Recall vote attracts record turnout

Top candidates cast ballots

 

06:13 PM MST on Tuesday, October 7, 2003

 

CNN Report

 

...he has also been dogged by allegations that he expressed admiration for Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler in a 1975 interview, though those charges largely dissipated after two figures involved in the interview discounted them. Schwarzenegger, who, like Hitler, is a native of Austria, has vehemently denied that he ever had Nazi sympathies.

Schwarzenegger and his campaign have accused Davis and his fellow Democrats of helping orchestrate the last-minute charges, but the Davis campaign has denied that it had any role in bringing the charges to light.

 

This article courtesy of CNN.

 

(boldface mine)

[kkktookmybabyaway 0]

Wow, and I thought it was bad when news stories mentioned race regarding police matters (shootings, assaults, etc...)

[Jobber of the Week 0]

Okay, so again, they're talking about it in the proper context.

 

The author makes it sound like they wrote something like this:

 

"Arnold Schwarzenegger announced on Friday a team of assistants to help smooth his transition into his role as California's governor. Schwarzenegger, who, like Hitler, is a native of Austria..."

[Firestarter 0]

Are you saying that Schwarzenegger's being a native of Austria makes it more credible that he might be an admirer of Hitler's? If not, then how is his native country relevant? How can the context be "proper" in any way if they're attempting to link Arnold Schwarzenegger to Adolf Hitler? Failing any actual evidence, they had to throw in geography as a last resort. Doesn't that seem off at all to you?

[Guest MikeSC]

Okay, so again, they're talking about it in the proper context.

 

The author makes it sound like they wrote something like this:

 

"Arnold Schwarzenegger announced on Friday a team of assistants to help smooth his transition into his role as California's governor. Schwarzenegger, who, like Hitler, is a native of Austria..."

You have NO problem with that at all?

 

Good God.

 

Why not mention Austrian natives who DIDN'T slaughter millions upon millions? I'm sure there are a few in history who fit that bill.

 

CNN was way in the wrong here --- and rather than apologize, they simply cover it up and hope nobody notices.

-=mike

[Jobber of the Week 0]

Are you saying that Schwarzenegger's being a native of Austria makes it more credible that he might be an admirer of Hitler's? If not, then how is his native country relevant? How can the context be "proper" in any way if they're attempting to link Arnold Schwarzenegger to Adolf Hitler?

Okay, let's see, the guy is born in the wake of WW2 in the country of a political leader who had a great number of conquests and followers.

 

Certainly Arnold's actions in the past number of years prove that he isn't an anti-semite, but I don't think all of Austria shared his anti-Hitler stance. He probably conversed with people who supported Hitler, his father was a Nazi guard, correct? And thus it's likely that while he doesn't have a favorible impression of Hitler, he hasn't grown up educated in this "HITLER = ALL BAD. NOTHING GOOD ABOUT HITLER. AT ALL." mindset that we all have.

 

I hate to draw a Bush comparison here, keep in mind I'm not meaning malice to him here, but think of Texas. For every Dixie Chick complaining about how embarassed she is the President came from Texas, there's two or more people who talk about the man with pride even if they don't agree with everything he's done.

 

Basically, what I'm trying to say is that the man's home country does have relevance, since he wasn't given the same impressions of Hitler that we were in our youth. His different viewpoint may explain why he felt he could say something flattering about the man, even if he didn't like him.

 

I watch CNN regularly and I supported Arnold as replacement gov since Day 1 (although my recall vote was up in the air until Davis gave licenses to illegals.) I thought what the LA Times did was wrong (and appearantly 1,000+ subscribers did as well, as it hit them back pretty hard) but if I saw something blatantly anti-Arnold on CNN I'd pitch a fit about it. In this case, the statement is both a fact and relevant.

[Firestarter 0]

His different viewpoint may explain why he felt he could say something flattering about the man, even if he didn't like him.

I've said exactly what Schwarzenegger said about Hitler in the context of rhetorical analyses. I don't think it's a revelation or even in any way controversial to say that Hitler was a great rhetorician. It's an accepted fact. It's rarely even necessary to say it. Equally unnecessary to say is that no decent person admires Hitler per se. He was evil. That is just as uncontroversial, Schwarzenegger said that as well. So how is his upbringing relevant at all? How is his home country relevant? He isn't a Nazi. He's a great supporter of the Simon Wiesenthal Center. He even asked the Center to research his own father's past, for crying out loud. Again, what gives you the impression that he has any opinion of Hitler outside the mainstream? Maybe he wasn't potty-trained exactly the same way we were either. Does that matter if he doesn't shit his pants today?

 

Jesus.

[Hogan Made Wrestling 0]

If anything I would say the comment is more of a slight against Austrian people in general than Arnold personally. The implication is that being from Austia, he might have a predisposition to be sympathetic towards Hitler.

[Firestarter 0]

That too.