Free Agent AL-nalysis

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I posted these in several parts over at SNKT, and now I grace you all with my sort of primer on the free agency market.

 

FREE AGENCY 2003

Part I: Catchers

 

With free agency approaching, its a good time to take a look at the free agents available this year. First on the docket, the catchers. This is really an all or nothing group. On one hand you have Ivan Rodriguez and Javy Lopez. After those two, however, the market takes a hit.

 

So who's in the market for catching? The Yankees have Posada, so no infecting the market here. The Red Sox have Varitek, the Dodgers have LoDuca, and the Mets have Piazza. So there go the big hitters. The Braves and Marlins will look to resign their guys. Otherwise, the Orioles need catching help, as do the Kansas City Royals. The Texas Rangers are weak in catching, but they'll budget, correctly, towards pitching. The Houston Astros need a replacement for Brad Ausmus, and the Giants need to replace Benito Santiago.

 

1. Ivan Rodriguez

 

A future Hall of Famer. Rodriguez played a full season for the first time in three years. Health had been the issue for I-Rod, and that seems to be over and done. One concern is Rodriguez's drop in slugging percentage, but that may be due to moving from The Ballpark in Arlington to Pro Player Stadium. Rodriguez is 32 heading into next year. Its questionable that the Marlins can resign him, as they had to defer his salary this year in the first place. I actually think the Astros should make a run here.

 

2. Javy Lopez

 

Where the hell did this come from? 43 Home Runs. Damn. Well, lets put this all into perspective. After two bad seasons, Javy reached career offensive highs at the age of 33, but he didn't increase his walk rate. I feel confident in saying that Javy will never hit like that again, but its also silly to think that he'll simply regress to his previous levels. He'll land somewhere in the middle. I think the Braves may end up re-signing him.

 

3. Benito Santiago

 

Santiago continues to defy father time. He'll be 38 going into next season. His stats are decent, but unspectacular, and he only played in 108 games last year. No team should give Santiago more than a one year contract. The Royals and similar teams should show some interest here.

 

4. Brad Ausmus

 

Desperate? Ausmus posted a sub .300 Slugging percentage. It tells you something about the catching market when Ausmus is this high. Teams that need a defensive minded backup should give Ausmus a look, but otherwise he's not worth it. Perhaps the White Sox could use Ausmus to back up Miguel Olivo as he develops. Of course, since Ausmus is buddy-buddy with Bagwell and Biggio, the Astros could hold on to him.

 

Brent Mayne

 

Brent Mayne hasn't topped a .309 OBP for the last three years. Teams should look for Brent Mayne as a backup only. But at least he's better than Mike Difelice.

 

First Basemen

 

What a crop this bunch is. So who's looking for a first baseman? Quite honestly, not many teams have an urgent need for a first baseman. Both the Giants and the Dodgers could use a first baseman, and can afford it, but that's about it. Without further ado, the first basemen!

 

1. Rafael Palmeiro

 

Palmeiro just keeps hitting, and he just turned 38. Palmeiro turned in yet another season of 30+ Home Runs, and 100+ RBIs. With 528 HRs, I think he's going to the HOF. Now for the bad news. His OBP slipped, as did his slugging percentage. You have to consider that he plays in the Ballpark in Arlington, so expect lower numbers if he signs elsewhere. His drops aren't bad as they are, but they're only going to fall more as he ages. Still, Palmeiro is far and away the best first baseman on the market.

 

2. J.T. Snow

 

The Giants started platooning Snow this year, and he responded by posting better than usual numbers. Its obvious that Snow is best used in a platoon at this point in his career. He might be a good pickup for a second division team, but there's no real need for him on any of the contenders.

 

3. Scott Spiezio

 

Spiezio posted a .326 OBP. His 2002 season looks like an abnormality more than anything. On a side note, its easy to see why the Angels turned out like they did. Your first baseman posting a 45 point increase in OBP, along with a 45 point decrease the next year will do that to you. In any case, Spiezio can play third, so he has value if a team plays him at third. Otherwise, Spiezio is not a very good first baseman.

 

4. Eric Karros

 

OBP/SLG

340/446

350/421

 

The first stat line above is from Eric Karros. The second is that of Hee Seop Choi. If fans would learn to look beyond batting average. They would see that Choi is already a perfectly acceptable player. More importantly, they'll see that Choi is every bit the player that Karros is, except he's cheaper and younger. Karros hasn't been a good hitter for three years now. His power surge this year was no more than the result of leaving Los Angeles. Most teams can do better than Eric Karros.

 

5. Fred McGriff

 

After a season of consistency, McGriff finally ended up injured this season. He turns 40 on Friday. More notably, his power numbers took a big hit, and it wasn't all Dodger Stadium. McGriff could still provide power, but he comes with a great deal of risk. A team could take a flyer on Crime Dog, but under no means should McGriff be counted on to carry first base for any team.

 

Second Basemen

 

The Cubs declined Mark Grudzielanek's option, making him a free agent. Thank god. I thought I was going to spend a paragraph talking about Jeff Reboulet.

 

Who's in the market for a second baseman? Quite a few teams. The Boston Red Sox are on the market, as are the Chicago White Sox, and the LA Dodgers. Problem is, there's not too much talent on the market. Chances are someone might end up overpaid when all is said and done. Without further ado, your free agent second basemen.

 

1. Luis Castillo

 

Castillo boasts a .367 lifetime OBP, he's in his prime, and he's fast. A team looking for a leadoff hitter could do well by signing Castillo. His only problem is that he needs to steal more selectively. I think the Dodgers and White Sox will show the most interest here.

 

2. Mark Grudzielanek

 

Buyer beware. At the age of 33, Grudzielanek posted his first .340+ OBP since '99. He holds career averages of .285/.329/.387. That's not too impressive. It would be foolish to offer Grudzielanek a long term deal. I think the Cubs hold the inside track here.

 

3. Todd Walker

 

Walker's career averages are .290/.346/.434. Expect that kind of production the next few years. Not excellent, but not bad either. Walker's sore spot is his fielding. I think most teams will show an interest depending on where the first two fall.

 

4. Roberto Alomar

 

A few years ago Alomar would've been the darling of the market. Now its been two years since he's hit anything. He'll be 36 when next season opens, and most indications are that he's finished as a star player. For a .330 OBP and .355 Slugging, you really could get someone much more affordable.

 

5. Eric Young

 

An aging leadoff hitter. Eric Young hasn't posted a leadoff hitter's OBP since 2000. He can still steal some bases, but his days as a major threat are long past. As with Alomar, Young doesn't give much more production than younger guys who come with lower price tags. Take a pass on this one.

 

Shortstops

 

We look at the market for shortstops. Its a decent market this year, with a former MVP available. So who's on the market for a shortstop? Perhaps the Mariners will test the market. The Chicago White Sox are also in need of a shortstop, as are the San Francisco Giants. The Los Angeles Dodgers are desperately in need of any kind of offensive ability. Rumours abound that the Mets will seek an infielder, but I think they need help elsewhere.

 

1. Miguel Tejada

 

Miguel Tejada is considered one of the top three players on the market. I can't help but feel he's slightly overrated. If you look at '01 and '03, his numbers were around .330/.475. Good for an infielder in the Oakland Coliseum, but not the kind of production most associate with him, thanks to his 2002 season. His slugging percentages over the last four years are .479, .476, .508, and .472. Which numbers are you more likely to see? The Dodgers are a good match for Tejada.

 

2. Jose Valentin

 

Valentin is one of baseball's overlooked players. Valentin is no star, but he consistantly delivers a slugging percentage around .475. Unfortunately, he's 34, and his OBP has slipped to around .310 the last two years. He can help a team who needs a slugging infielder, or perhaps as an extra infielder who can play some third base.

 

3. Rich Aurilia

 

Rich Aurilia surprised fans by hitting 37 home runs in 2001. However, he's only hit 28 total the last two years. 2001 is the only year Aurilia topped a .340 OBP, or a .445 slugging percentage. He's 32 years old. Teams looking at Aurilia should discount his 2001 and view him with his recent numbers in mind.

 

4. Kaz Matsui

 

No relation to Hideki. Kaz Matsui is the latest import from Japan. Kaz is a career .309 hitter in Japan, and he's in his prime. If you consider Japan on the level of AAA baseball, than his numbers look very good. He hit 30+ home runs the last two years. He walks at a decent rate. He's got 306 career steals. Kaz Matsui could be a steal on this market.

 

5. Mike Bordick

 

Bordick put together a good year for the Blue Jays at 38. As always, temper your expectations and consider his previous few seasons. Teams looking for a veteran backstop could use a player like Bordick.

 

Third Basemen

 

Next up is the crop of third basemen entering the market. And the third basemen market.....sucks. Really, it does. There's not a single long term option on this list. So with that in mind, who needs a third baseman? The Yankees are looking. So are the Atlanta Braves, and the Seattle Mariners need a good player. So lets see who's available.

 

1. Joe Randa

 

Randa will be 34 at the beginning of the season. His career numbers are .286/.341/.426, and I expect he'll put up similar numbers next year. Randa is a good short term solution for a team with a hole in their lineup.

 

2. Vinny Castilla

 

Castilla hit 22 home runs, but his OBP the last four years was .254, .308, .268 and .310. That's abysmal. Do you really want to spend money with the chance that he'll turn right back into Sir Whiffs-A-Lot? I would not waste a roster spot on Castilla.

 

3. Tony Batista

 

They mass produce this type. Batista's OBP was .270 last year. The three years before that Batista posted OBP's of .307, .280, and .309. Batista's power is not worth that kind of aggravation. Batista could be decent as a power hitting reserve, but that's it.

 

4. Robin Ventura

 

You get the same as always with Ventura. Low batting averages tempered by a terrific BB rate. Ventura's hit sub .250 for four years now, yet he remains a good player. He's aging, but he could be a good one year stopgap for a team with a hole at third.

 

5. Todd Zeile

 

Zeile had a bad strtch for the Yankees, but he's not that bad. His numbers with Montreal are more indicative of his true ability. He's probably not a real good fielder at this point, but he'd be a nice bench player to have, as a hitter who can play the corner infield positions.

 

FREE AGENTS

Outfielders

 

Ok gang. Now we're getting into the good part of the free agent market. There's alot of outfielders available on the market this offseason. The NY Yankees and Baltimore Orioles are expected to make a push here on the free agent market. Expect interest from the Atlanta Braves as well, as both Sheffield and Maddux come off their books this offseason. Of course, the usual suspects will show interest. The Giants could really use some help.

 

1. Vladimir Guerrero

 

Quite simply, a man who needs no introduction. Vladimir Guerrero is just entering the prime of his career. He's a career .323 hitter, with 40/40 skills. The team that signs Vlad will get every bit of what they paid for.

 

2. Gary Sheffield

 

1994. That's the last time Gary Sheffield put up an OBP lower than .400. Sheffield is a dynamite hitter, regularly hitting 30-40 homers a year. He's got a few more good years left, and is more than worth a 3 year contract. A future hall of famer from where I stand.

 

3. Mike Cameron

 

Cameron's real value is in his defensive skills. Cameron is the best CF on the market. His career numbers are .250/.343/.434. Expect a slight increase if he leaves Seattle for a park more suited to hitters. Cameron is a capable hitter for his position, and can add 20 steals a year. The Yankees may want to take a look here as Bernie Williams ages.

 

4. Carl Everett

 

Everett revived his career with 28 home runs last year. His numbers the last two years weren't good, and he's been fighting injuries, so he's a risk. He's probably not good enough for center field at this point. I expect a team to take a flyer, but I wouldn't give him more than a year or two.

 

5. Jose Guillen

 

The question is, is he for real? Guillen shocked the baseball world by posting a 337/385/629 line for the Reds. One one hand, it was only 300 ar bats. On the other hand, he is 27. I go with the former. He might be for real, but if he isn't you're still stuck paying him. Best to temper expectations for now.

 

6. Shannon Stewart

 

Stewart's a good leadoff hitter and slightly below average hitter. A team looking for a leadoff hitter might do well by signing Shannon Stewart.

 

7. Kenny Lofton

 

Lofton put together a nice 2nd half for the Cubs. As always with aging players, caution should prevail here. Expect a 340/420 line from Lofton, with around 20 steals. A good one year stopgap.

 

8. Reggie Sanders

 

Reggie Sanders has a very odd statistical line. He's literally good one year, and average the next. By this pattern, next season is an off season. Teams should keep in mind that he's 36. He'd make a good 4th outfielder at this point.

 

9. Jose Cruz Jr.

 

Career averages of 251/336/458. Expect similar numbers in 2004. A good player who can play center, and switch hits.

 

10. Raul Ibanez

 

Ibanez suddenly turned decent three years ago. He's got career averages of 278/334/464, and I'd expect similar numbers, with a slight increase in slugging. A good option for teams looking for a 4th outfielder/hitter.

 

11. Rondell White

 

A power hitter with injury problems. Rondell is a good option for a team with a need for a designated hitter.

 

12. Jeromy Burnitz

 

Hit terribly for the Dodgers after a good half with the Mets. Career averages of 251/350/482. Expect similar numbers. See the three or four guys above. Its all the same really.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

The first five guys or so are good, and the rest are CRAP. Seriously, if you can grap one of the top guys, don't bother. Everyone needs pitching, so no need to list interested teams here.

 

1. Bartolo Colon

 

Bartolo Colon holds a 3.86 career ERA, and eats innings. I expect the same kind of production over the next few years. There's not much to add here. Colon's a bit heavy, so conditioning might be an issue down the road.

 

2. Andy Pettitte

 

Pettitte holds a sterling career record of 149-78. Pettitte doesn't issue many walks, and strikes out a decent amount of hitters. Now for the bad news. Pettitte is 68-48 on the road, with a 4.44 ERA. He's much better in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees should re-sign him.

 

3. Sidney Ponson

 

Ponson finally took a step forward last year, winning 15 games. It was the first year Ponson posted an ERA under 4. Ponson is 27, so a step up in performance was expected. Teams should expect a 3.70 ERA or so for the next few years.

 

4. Kevin Millwood

 

Millwood has had thw same peripheral stats the last four years. His ERA has flucuated thanks to his hits allowed. Some evidence shows pitchers have little impact on balls in play, so perhaps Millwood's ups and downs can be traced to his defense. Or maybe not. Millwood has a good K and BB rate, so he's probably worth the risk.

 

5. Greg Maddux

 

Maddux's ERA finally spiked, and his K rate is down. He's still a decent starter however, but not #1 material. Maddux has made 30+ starts a year for quite some time, so he'd make a good second or third starter for a team needing a plug.

 

6. Kenny Rogers

 

Rogers is still plugging at the age of 39. Rogers will contribute about 200 innings, at league average performance. A team needing a back rotation solid starter could use Rogers.

 

7. Brett Tomko

 

Tomko sports a career ERA of 4.62. He's not worth anything more than a minor league contract.

 

8. Cory Lidle

 

Lidle took a step backwards once he left the Oakland Coliseum. His career ERA is 4.42, and I would expect a similar performance this year.

 

9. Jose Lima

 

Lima had a career revivial, but he barely struck out more batters than he walked. Stay away from this one.

 

10. Rick Reed

 

Reed had a 5.07 ERA last year. He's not worth the money at this point.

 

11. Garrett Stephenson

 

Another starter who found a career based on one good year. Like the four above, Stephenson is not worth a big pile of money, or money at all.

 

12. Pedro Astacio

 

Astacio missed most of the year with injury. Astacio's good, when healthy. The question is whether he can hold it together. At 34, he's a 50/50 shot.

 

Relief Pitchers

 

Relief pitchers are a suspicious lot. Many of your closers are consistant, performing seasn after season. But alot of middle relievers appear one season, and disappear the next. A pitcher with an 0.96 ERA one season for the Braves suddenly sucks next year for the Yankees. One reason is ample sizes. 50 IP isn't enough to judge a pitcher's true worth. So the maxim here is simple. Be wary of middle relief, don't trust one year of results, and take a good hard look at peripheral statistics. So lets take a look at the candidates.

 

1. Keith Foulke

 

Quite simply, one of the game's elite closers. Lots of strikeouts and few walks. Every team on the market for a closer is going to target this guy first, for good reason.

 

2. Ugueth Urbina

 

I'd exercise a little caution of Urbina. He's not as good as his 38 innings in Florida would indicate, but he's solid nonetheless.

 

3. Eddie Guardado

 

Guardado has pitched wonderfully the last two years since he became the Twins' closer. He could easily contribute three more good years to a team in need of a closer.

 

4. Tim Worrell

 

Worrell got a shot at the Giants' closer job with Robb Nen on the shelf, and Worrell passed the test with flying colors. Worrell is another good reliever who can easily close, and a smart team could get him cheaper than they would a more "proven" closer.

 

5. LaTroy Hawkins

 

A dominating pitcher who could close games for a team in need of a closer. Given his peripheral numbers, there's no reason why he can't be a closer.

 

6. Kelvim Escobar

 

Escobar has relieved more games than he started the last two years, so he's listed here. He could easily start games however. Escobar is entering his prime, with league average numbers. He's not overpowering, so he's probably better off as an innings eating starter.

 

7. Armando Benitez

 

The image of Benitez is a flake, someone who can't get it done in crunch time. That could work in favor of a team looking for a closer, as Benitez is downright overpowering. Benitez could come at a discount to a team looking to roll the dice. He could pay off.

 

8. Tom Gordon

 

After missing 2000 to injury, Gordon has put it together the last three seasons. A good reliever who could easily close games in a pinch.

 

9. Curtis Leskanic

 

Missed 2002, and came back with a vengeance. Leskanic is another guy who can easily close games for a contender.

 

10. Mike Timlin

 

Timlin hardly ever walks anyone, a real plus for a team sick of giving away games. Timlin isn't a closer anymore, but he's still a solid reliever.

 

11. Terry Adams

 

After a couple seasons masquerading as a starter, the Phillies moved Adams back to relief, and he responded with a 2.65 ERA. Adams can spot start, but that's it. Adams is a solid pitcher to have in the pen.

 

12. Rod Beck

 

Beck returned to action after missing 2002 with Tommy John surgery. Beck turned in a 1.78 ERA, and he's never shown any real signs of aging. Best of all he still strikes out nearly a batter an inning. Again, Beck is a good option.

[Guest Anglesault]

5. Todd Zeile

 

Zeile had a bad strtch for the Yankees,

And you know, I was still kind of sad to see him go.

 

The image of Benitez is a flake, someone who can't get it done in crunch time

 

A well earned image, I might add.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I can't really argue with the Benitez image at this point. I will say that if some team takes him at a reduced price, he could pay off big time.

[bob_barron 0]

Al-

 

Where do you think Maddux is going to end up?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Hard to say. It depends who's hard up for pitching after the big 4 fall into place. The teams that cross my mind are the White Sox, Red Sox, Giants, and Padres. If there's no real demand for Maddux, I can easily see him slipping back to the Braves for another year.

[bob_barron 0]

I remember last year (correct me if I'm wrong) that there wasn't much demand for Maddux.

 

So why would any team want him after this year where he didn't pitch as well as he did in 2002

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I think Maddux's agent just figured he'd make more in arbitration with the Braves than on the free market.

 

Also consider that pitching is always in demand, and I think there's less available this year than last year. Last year we saw Clemens, Moyer, and Tom Glavine on the market as well.

[Guest Smell the ratings!!!]

ok first off, I strongly disapprove of the title AL-nalysis.

 

that said, what do you think of the rumors that Vlad will spurn all the big money franchises regardless of thier offers?

 

ps - I hope you're wrong about the White Sox possible moves. They need to blow this team up and bury it under the stadium.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

From the Manny Ramirez thread.....

 

As for Vlad. First off, I don't buy the "he doesn't want to play for a big market" argument. Vlad will go wherever the best offer comes from.

 

I stand by my thoughts. Vlad will go for the best offer. If some team offers him 7 years, he'd be silly to turn it down.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

The way I figure it, the Os have 4 holes (RF/1B, SS, C, 1 SP). The RF/1B problem stems from the fact that Jay Gibbons can play either position, so they need to pick up someone who can play either spot. Money goes to Vlad to play RF. At SS, Deivi Cruz sucks. Some speculation would have the Os going after Tejada/Matsui, but I think the Os will go with Hairston at SS and Roberts at 2nd. At Catcher, Brook Fordyce might be resigned, but only as a backup, so they need to sign someone, and it will probably be Javy Lopez. I don't know who they'll sign to fill the pitching hole, but it will probably not be any of the top pitchers on the list above.

C - Lopez

1B - Gibbons

2B - Roberts

SS - Hairston

3B - Batista

RF - Vlad

CF - Mora

LF - Cordova

DH - Cust

Rotation

Moss

Ainsworth

Johnson

Hentgen

???

[Mik 0]

Only page you need:

 

http://florida.marlins.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/...at=ORIG_TEAM_ID

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Marvin- wouldn't Rodrigo Lopez be the 5th starter?

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

Marvin- wouldn't Rodrigo Lopez be the 5th starter?

I really don't know, but I was under the impression that he probably wouldn't be a starter come next year unless he earns it in Spring Training.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Looking over the roster. I didn't even know Omar Daal was on the team. I would think at this point the O's would pick from Daal, Lopez, and John Stephens to fill the 5th starter's spot. The rotation actually looks half decent. They're better served shoring up their offense.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

Looking over the roster. I didn't even know Omar Daal was on the team. I would think at this point the O's would pick from Daal, Lopez, and John Stephens to fill the 5th starter's spot. The rotation actually looks half decent. They're better served shoring up their offense.

Daal's on the team, but probably in the bullpen. He absolutely stunk as a starter. Hentgen was solid in the 2nd half and I think that he'll be resigned and will get a rotation spot, at least early in the year until some of the young pitchers are ready to be called up.

 

Oh, and I rumors are that its not inconcievable that the Os would resign Ponson, but I still think that there will probably be differences in the years/$$$ between the two sides. But if it could be done, that would certainly make the trade for Moss/Ainsworth an absolute steal and would give them a really solid Rotation, especially if Ainsworth doesn't suffer any ill effects from the shoulder injury and they can get Moss to revert to his season with Atlanta (cut down the walks!)

[treble 0]

Do the Os still have Hentgen under contract?

[Bored 0]

I guess I should throw in what I know about the A's at this point. Tejada is pretty much good as gone but it sounds like they may end up signing Foulke and that he will give the A's a discount. It could all be b.s. at this point but at least they are apparantly talking. Jose Guillen also wants to stay, at least has said so, but he's not a Billy Beane type of player and of course don't know if last year was a complete fluke or not.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

Do the Os still have Hentgen under contract?

The Os are looking to get him to sign back for less money but 2 years. He might go back to St. Louis though, so nothings definite as of now.