Bored 0 Report post Posted November 30, 2003 x-first ballot nominees Bert Blyleven x-Joe Carter Dave Concepcion x-Danny Darwin Andre Dawson x-Doug Drabek x-Dennis Eckersley x-Jim Eisenreich x-Cecil Fielder Steve Garvey Rich Gossage Keith Hernandez Tommy John x-Jimmy Key x-Dennis Martinez Don Mattingly x-Kevin Mitchell x-Paul Molitor Jack Morris Dale Murphy x-Randy Myers Dave Parker x-Terry Pendleton Jim Rice x-Juan Samuel Ryne Sandberg Lee Smith x-Dave Stieb Bruce Sutter x-Bob Tewksbury Alan Trammell Fernando Valenzuela Molitor is a first ballot lock and Eckersley most likely as well. Sandberg is the only other one that might have a chance at getting in but he'll probably have to wait one more year as there are no big name candidates for next year. Most of the other first ballot guys will get cut after the first year. Only see Key, Myers, and Carter making getting enough votes to stay on the ballot. There are no final year candidates this year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bored 0 Report post Posted November 30, 2003 Hall of Fame Monitor numbers for each candidate from baseball-reference.com: Hall of Fame Monitor This is another Jamesian creation. It attempts to assess how likely (not how deserving) an active player is to make the Hall of Fame. It's rough scale is 100 means a good possibility and 130 is a virtual cinch. It isn't hard and fast, but it does a pretty good job. Here are the batting rules. Also, I require a minimum of 30 points in this metric before the value is displayed for a player. For Batting Average, 2.5 points for each season over .300, 5.0 for over .350, 15 for over .400. Seasons are not double-counted. I require 100 games in a season to qualify for this bonus. For hits, 5 points for each season of 200 or more hits. 3 points for each season of 100 RBI's and 3 points for each season of 100 runs. 10 points for 50 home runs, 4 points for 40 HR, and 2 points for 30 HR. 2 points for 45 doubles and 1 point for 35 doubles. 8 points for each MVP award and 3 for each AllStar Game, and 1 point for a Rookie of the Year award. 2 points for a gold glove at C, SS, or 2B, and 1 point for any other gold glove. 6 points if they were the regular SS or C on a WS team, 5 points for 2B or CF, 3 for 3B, 2 for LF or RF, and 1 for 1B. I don't have the OF distribution, so I give 3 points for OF. 5 points if they were the regular SS or C on a League Championship (but not WS) team, 3 points for 2B or CF, 1 for 3B. I don't have the OF distribution, so I give 1 points for OF. 2 points if they were the regular SS or C on a Division Championship team (but not WS or LCS), 1 points for 2B, CF, or 3B. I don't have the OF distribution, so I give 1 points for OF. 6 points for leading the league in BA, 4 for HR or RBI, 3 for runs scored, 2 for hits or SB, and 1 for doubles and triples. 50 points for 3,500 career hits, 40 for 3,000, 15 for 2,500, and 4 for 2,000. 30 points for 600 career home runs, 20 for 500, 10 for 400, and 3 for 300. 24 points for a lifetime BA over .330, 16 if over .315, and 8 if over .300. For tough defensive positions, 60 for 1800 games as a catcher, 45 for 1,600 games, 30 for 1,400, and 15 for 1,200 games caught. 30 points for 2100 games at 2B or SS, or 15 for 1,800 games. 15 points for 2,000 games at 3B. An additional 15 points in the player has more than 2,500 games played at 2B, SS, or 3B. Award 15 points if the player's batting average is over .275 and they have 1,500 or more games as a 2B, SS or C. Pitching Rules 15 points for each season of 30 or more wins, 10 for 25 wins, 8 for 23 wins, 6 for 20 wins, 4 for 18 wins, and 2 for 15 wins. 6 points for 300 strikeouts, 3 points for 250 SO, or 2 points for 200 or more strikeouts. 2 points for each season with 14 or more wins and a .700 winning percentage. 4 points for a sub-2.00 ERA, 1 point if under 3.00. 7 points for 40 or more saves, 4 points for 30 or more, and 1 point for 20 or more. 8 points for each MVP award, 5 for a Cy Young award, 3 for each AllStar Game, and 1 point for a Rookie of the Year award. 1 point for a gold glove. 1 point for each no-hitter. This is not currently included. 2 points for leading the league in ERA, 1 for leading in games, wins, innings, W-L%, SO, SV or SHO. Half point for leading in CG. 35 points for 300 or more wins, 25 for 275, 20 for 250, 15 for 225, 10 for 200, 8 for 174 and 5 for 150 wins. 8 points for a career W-L% over .625, 5 points for over .600, 3 points for over .575, and 1 point for over .525, min. 190 decisions. 10 points for a career ERA under 3.00, min 190 decisions. 20 points for 300 career saves and 10 points for 200 career saves. 30 points for 1000 career games, 20 for 850 games and 10 for 700 games. 20 points for more than 4,000 strikeouts, and 10 for 3,000 SO. 2 points for each WS start, 1 point for each relief appearance, and 2 for a win. 1 point for each league playoff win. 1. Dennis Eckersley 166 2. Paul Molitor 165 3. Ryne Sandberg 157 4. Jim Rice 147 5. Lee Smith 136 6. Don Mattingly 134 7. Steve Garvey 131 8. Dave Parker 125.5 9. Alan Trammell 119 10. Rich Gossage 118 11. Andre Dawson 117.5 12. Dale Murphy 115.5 13. Bert Blyleven 113.5 14. Jack Morris 108.5 15. Dave Concepcion 107 16. Tommy John 100 17. Randy Myers 94 18. Joe Carter 88.5 19. Bruce Sutter 87 20. Keith Hernandez 86 21. Cecil Fielder 75 22. Fernando Valenzuela 64.5 23. Dennis Martinez 60 24. Jimmy Key 59 25. Dave Stieb 55.5 26. Terry Pendleton 38 27. Kevin Mitchell 37.5 28. Doug Drabek 35 29. Danny Darwin 28 30. Juan Samuel 26 31. Jim Eisenreich 16 32. Bob Tewksbury 11 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted November 30, 2003 I'm still working on my HOF picks, but I'd like to point out the (unofficial) HOF criteria, which seems to be.... 1. Meet the requirements for eligibility 2. Have been selected to an all-star game So if you're wondering what Danny Darwin is doing on a HOF ballot, that's why. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bored 0 Report post Posted November 30, 2003 Danny Darwin never made an all-star team and neither did Jim Eisenreich. Maybe they just needed to fill out the ballot. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted November 30, 2003 Perhaps they're using a games played cutoff. And I thought I had it figured out. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bored 0 Report post Posted November 30, 2003 (edited) http://www.baseballhalloffame.org/hofers_a...orees/rules.htm According to their website it seems really, beyond being retired for five years, all you have to do to be eligible is played at least 10 years. Oh well doesn't really matter when it comes to the end of the ballot guys as they'll be off of it by next year. My ballot...um if I had one...would go like this, and I if I voted the maximum 10 that a writer can vote, I'd vote Molitor, Eckersley, Sandberg, Rice, Parker, Smith, Blyleven, Morris, Dawson, and Mattingly. Out of those 10 I'd probably only vote in Molitor, Eckersley, Sandberg definently, Rice probably, and then maybe Parker and Smith. I know not everyone agrees on Jim Rice but more I look at it the more I think he deserve to get in. Edited November 30, 2003 by Bored Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vern Gagne 0 Report post Posted November 30, 2003 Anyone who played at least 10 years is eligible. Molitor, Eckersley, Dawson, Sandberg, and Blyleven would be my choices. Molitor and Eck will both make it. I see Sandberg, and maybe Dawson making the biggest improvements in voting. Something tells me Sutter will have to wait for the Veterans Committee in 2 years, if he makes it than. The voting does bother me though. What did someone like Bruce Sutter do between this year, and last year. Either you're a HOFer or you're not. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bored 0 Report post Posted November 30, 2003 Well it also depends who your up against and I think each writer designates a minumum number of players they'll vote for to go along with the maximum of 10. Tony Perez only got in the HOF in 2000 because he was in a year where there were no locks on the ballot. Its obviously not a perfect system. This season Molitor and Eckersley are locks but the next two years there are no first ballot locks so Sandberg will definently get in then and then guys like Sutter, Rice, and Dawson might get in in those two years. Then comes the Class of 2007 ballot...Gwynn, Ripken, and McGwire. No one else on the ballot will have a chance in hell of getting in that year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kkktookmybabyaway 0 Report post Posted November 30, 2003 My 10 off-the-top-of-my-head picks: Andre Dawson Dennis Eckersley Dennis Martinez Don Mattingly Paul Molitor Ryne Sandberg Fernando Valenzuela Jim Rice Lee Smith Don Mattingly Jack Morris... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bored 0 Report post Posted November 30, 2003 Should correct what I said about no locks for next year as Wade Boggs will be a first ballot nominee. So Molitor and Eckersley go in 2004 and then Boggs and probably Sandberg in 2005. 2006 will be a very weak year. Here is the eligible players for the next two years although of course not all will be on the ballot: 2005 Jim Abbott, Jeff Blauser, Wade Boggs, Tom Candiotti, Chili Davis, Jeff King, Mark Langston, Jack McDowell, Willie McGee, Brian McRae, Jeff Montgomery, Otis Nixon, Tony Phillips, Mark Portugal, Terry Steinbach 2006 Rick Aguilera, Tim Belcher, Will Clark, Alex Fernandez, Gary Gaetti, Dwight Gooden, Ozzie Guillen, Juan Guzman, Orel Hershiser, Gregg Jefferies, Lance Johnson, Doug Jones, Roberto Kelly, Mickey Morandini, Hal Morris, Jaime Navarro, Luis Polonia, Mike Stanley, Darryl Strawberry, Walt Weiss, John Wetteland, Mark Whiten Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gert T 0 Report post Posted November 30, 2003 No doubt only Molitor and Eck. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted November 30, 2003 Isn't Albert Belle eligible in 2006? Also, for those of you who pick Lee Smith or Bruce Sutter, why not Rich Gossage? For an entire decade, he was baseball's most dominant reliever. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Lando Griffin 0 Report post Posted November 30, 2003 I was going to say that. Goose needs to get in. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HarleyQuinn 0 Report post Posted November 30, 2003 My Top 10 for the 2004 HOF after looking at Baseball-Reference Paul Molitor(3,319 hits, 504 SB's and a career .309 BA) Dennis Eckersley(197-171 record, 390 Saves, career 3.50 ERA) Rich Gossage(124-107 record, 310 saves, career 3.01 ERA) Andre Dawson(2,774 hits, 438 HR's, career .279 BA, career .983 fielding % as an OF) Jime Rice(2,452 hits, 382 HR's, career .298 BA, career .980 FP as an OF) Ryne Sandberg(2,386 hits, career .285 BA, career .989 FP as a 2B) Lee Smith(478 saves, career 3.03 ERA) Dave Parker(2,712 hits, career .290 BA, 339 HR's) Steve Garvey(2.599 hits, career .294 BA, career .996 FP as a 1B(over 2,000 games) Tommy John(288-231 record, 162 CG's, career 3.34 ERA) I was also surprised at how damn good Steve Garvey was. Especially as a fielder Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bored 0 Report post Posted November 30, 2003 (edited) Okay I'm Bored enough to profile each player and their pros and cons. Bert Blyleven - Starting Pitcher - 1970-1992 - Minnesota, Texas, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, California Pros: 287 wins; 242 complete games; 60 shutouts (9th all-time); 3701 strikeouts (5th all-time); played on two world champions ('79 Pirates, '87 Twins). Cons: Only made All-Star team twice; only one 20 win season; despite his high strikeout total he only led the league once; never led league in wins or ERA. Joe Carter - Outfielder - 1983-1998 - Cleveland, San Diego, Toronto, Baltimore, San Francisco Pros: 396 homeruns; 1445 rbi; played on two world champions ('92, '93 Blue Jays); hit series winning homerun of '93 World Series. Cons: .259 career average; no major awards; only once led league in a major offensive category (rbi in '86). Dave Concepcion - Shortstop - 1970-1988 - Cincinnati Pros: Five Gold Gloves; nine-time All-Star; played on two world champions ('75, '76 Reds) Cons: Never led league in any offensive category; offensive numbers just not impressive across the board. Danny Darwin - Starting Pitcher/Middle Reliever - 1978-1998 - Texas, Milwaukee, Houston, Boston, Toronto, Pittsburgh, Chicago (AL), San Francisco Pros: Led league in ERA in 1990 (2.21). Cons: Career losing record (171-182); 321 homeruns allowed; never made an All-Star team; in and out of starting rotations the majority of his career. Andre Dawson - Outfielder - 1976-1996 - Montreal, Chicago (NL), Boston, Florida Pros: 438 homeruns; 1591 rbi; 2744 hits; 589 stolen bases; 1987 NL MVP; 1977 NL ROY; eight Gold Gloves. Cons: Only one homerun and rbi title. Doug Drabek - Starting Pitcher - 1986-1998 - New York (AL), Pittsburgh, Houston, Chicago (AL), Baltimore Pros: 1990 NL Cy Young. Cons: Only made one All-Star team; led league only once in a major pitching category (Wins in '90); only 154 career wins. Dennis Eckersley - Closer/Starting Pitcher - 1975-1998 - Cleveland, Boston, Chicago (NL), Oakland, St. Louis Pros: 390 saves (3rd all-time); 100 complete games; 2401 strikeouts; 1992 AL MVP & Cy Young; 1988 ALCS MVP; 1988 and 1992 AL Rolaids Relief winner; 1071 games pitched (2nd all-time); most dominate closer of the late 80s and early 90s. Cons: Only really had two good years as a starting pitcher; two infamous postseason homeruns allowed (Gibson '88 World Series, Alomar '92 ALCS). Jim Eisenreich - Outfielder - 1982-1998; Minnesota, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Florida, Los Angeles Pros: .290 career average. Ummm...got his autograph when he was with the Royals. Cons: Primarily a pinch hitter and 4th outfielder the majority of his career; 52 homeruns and 477 rbi isn't exactly HOF numbers. Cecil Fielder - First Baseman/Designated Hitter - 1985-1998 - Toronto, Detroit, New York (AL), Anaheim, Cleveland Pros: Twice led league in homeruns; Three times led league in rbi; hit 51 homeruns in 1990 when it was still a major accomplishment. Cons: .255 career average; only a short period of time was he a truly feared hitter; not much defensively; averaged 145 strikeouts for every 162 games played. Steve Garvey - First Baseman - 1969-1987 - Los Angeles, San Diego Pros: 1974 NL MVP; 10-time All-Star; four Gold Gloves; 1978 & 1984 NLCS MVP; 2599 hits; .294 career average; 1308 rbi; holds NL record for most consectivue games played. Cons: 272 homeruns not a lot for his position; never led a major offensive category except hits ('78, '80); off the field scandal hurt his reputation. Rich "Goose" Gossage - Closer - 1972-1994 - Chicago (AL), Pittsburgh, New York (AL), San Diego, Chicago (NL), San Francisco, Texas, Oakland, Seattle Pros: 310 saves; nine-time All-Star; 1978 AL Rolaids Relief winner; three times led league in saves; most dominate closer of the late 70s and early 80s. Cons: Save total has become less impressive over the years; only two pitchers in the HOF who spent almost entire career as relievers (Hoyt Wilhelm and Rollie Fingers). Keith Hernandez - First Baseman - 1974-1990 - St. Louis, New York (NL), Cleveland Pros: 11 Gold Gloves; 1979 NL Co-MVP; .296 career average; played on two world champions ('82 Cardinals, '86 Mets); twice led league in runs scored. Cons: only 172 homeruns; never finished higher than 5th in the league in rbi; overall career numbers just not overwhelming. Tommy John - Starting Pitcher - 1963-1989 - Cleveland, Chicago (AL), Los Angeles, New York (AL), California, Oakland Pros: 288 wins; 46 shutouts; three times led league in shutouts; three 20 win seasons; has a surgery named after him. Cons: Never led league in wins or ERA; Never finished in the Top 10 strikeouts; career numbers more of just a product of playing as long as he did than anything as only had a few years where he was an elite starter. Jimmy Key - Starting Pitcher - 1984-1998 - Toronto, New York (AL), Baltimore Pros: led league in ERA in '87; led league in wins in '94; played on two world champions ('92 Blue Jays, '96 Yankees). Cons: No 20 win seasons; only once did he have a sub-3 ERA; only a few years was he an elite starter. Dennis Martinez - Starting Pitcher - 1976-1998 - Baltimore, Montreal, Cleveland, Seattle, Atlanta Pros: 245 wins; led league in wins in '81; led league in ERA '91. Cons: Career high in wins was only 16; 3.70 career ERA. Don Mattingly - First Baseman - 1982-1995 - New York (AL) Pros: Nine Gold Gloves; .307 career average; 1985 AL MVP; three times led league in doubles. Cons: 222 homeruns; his numbers took a dramatic drop off after 1989 and never came close to his huge numbers in the mid-80s again. Kevin Mitchell - Outfielder - 1984-1998 - New York (NL), San Diego, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Boston, Cleveland, Oakland Pros: 1989 NL MVP. Cons: only 760 rbi; just didn't play enough or healthy enough to pad his unimpressive career numbers. Paul Molitor - Designated Hitter/Third Baseman - 1978-1998 - Milwaukee, Toronto, Minnesota Pros: 3319 hits (9th all-time); .306 career average; 605 doubles (10th all-time); 504 stolen bases; 1993 World Series MVP; three times led league in runs; three times led league hits. Cons: Was a DH for the majority of his career; No major regular season awards; no batting titles. Jack Morris - Starting Pitcher - 1977-1994 - Detroit, Minnesota, Toronto, Cleveland Pros: 254 wins; 175 complete games; 1991 World Series MVP; three 20 win seasons; played on three world champions ('84 Tigers, '91 Twins, '92 Blue Jays). Cons: Never had a sub-3 ERA; 3.90 career ERA. Dale Murphy - Outfielder - 1976-1993 - Atlanta, Philadelphia, Colorado Pros: 1982 & 1983 NL MVP; led league in homeruns and rbi both of those years; Five Gold Gloves; 398 homeruns. Cons: .265 career average; numbers took HUGE drop off after 1987. Randy Myers - Closer - 1985-1998 - New York (NL), Cincinnati, San Diego, Chicago (NL), Baltimore, Toronto Pros: 347 saves (6th all-time); three times led league in saves; 1993 NL & 1997 AL Rolaids Relief winner; 1990 NLCS MVP. Cons: Reliever almost entire career; had several high ERA years for a closer. Dave Parker - Outfielder - 1973-1991 - Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Oakland, Milwaukee, California, Toronto Pros: 1978 NL MVP; Three Gold Gloves; two batting titles; 2712 hits; 1493 rbi; played on two world champions ('79 Pirates, '89 A's). Cons: Career numbers don't blow you away; Most of his career he was a good player but not a great player. Terry Pendleton - Third Baseman - 1984-1998 - St. Louis, Atlanta, Florida, Cincinnati, Kansas City Pros: 1991 NL MVP; Three Gold Gloves; twice led league in hits. Cons: Really only had two standout years; only 140 homeruns and 946 rbi. Jim Rice - Outfielder - 1974-1989 - Boston Pros: 1978 AL MVP; .298 career average; 382 homeruns; 1481 rbi; three times led league homeruns; two times led league in rbi. Cons: Could have benefitted a lot if he could have played longer to pad his career stats a little more. Juan Samuel - Second Baseman - 1983-1998 - Philadelphia, New York (NL), Los Angeles, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Detroit, Toronto Pros: Twice led league in triples. Cons: Only 703 rbi; Led league in strikeouts four straight years from 1984 to 1987. Ryne Sandberg - Second Baseman - 1981-1994, 96-97 - Philadelphia, Chicago (NL) Pros: Nine Gold Gloves; 1984 NL MVP; 10-time All-Star; three times led league in runs; 282 homeruns a lot for his position; Best 2B in baseball during his prime. Cons: Note a huge amount of rbi; Even though great for his position his numbers might not overwhelm everyone. Lee Smith - Closer - 1980-1997 - Chicago (NL), Boston, St. Louis, New York (AL), Baltimore, California, Cincinnati, Montreal Pros: All-time save leader with 478; three-time Rolaids Relief Award winner; four times led league in saves. Cons: Reliever almost entire career; Was terrible the two years he pitched in the postseason. Dave Stieb - Starting Pitcher - 1979-1993, 98 - Toronto, Chicago (AL) Pros: Seven-time All-Star; 103 complete games. Cons: Only 176 wins; no 20 win seasons. Bruce Sutter - Closer - 1976-1988 - Chicago (NL), St. Louis, Atlanta Pros: 300 saves; 1979 NL Cy Young; four-time Rolaids Relief Awad winner; five times led league in saves. Cons: Never made a start in his career; didn't have an especially long career. Bob Tewksbury - Starting Pitcher - 1986-1998 - New York (AL), Chicago (NL), St. Louis, Texas, San Diego, Minnesota Pros: 2.16 ERA in 1992. Cons: Never led the league in any major pitching category unless you count hits allowed which he did twice; 3.92 career ERA; only 110 wins. Alan Trammell - Shortstop - 1977-1996 - Detroit Pros: Four Gold Gloves; 1984 World Series MVP; Numbers in his prime were excellent for a shortstop then. Cons: Influx of offensive shortstops makes his career numbers look unimpressive and not close to his contemporary in Cal Ripken; Never finished higher than 3rd in any major offensive category (3rd in hits in '87). Fernando Valenzuela - Starting Pitcher - 1980-1997 - Los Angeles, California, Baltimore, Philadelphia, San Diego, St. Louis Pros: 1981 NL Cy Young & ROY; One Gold Glove; three times led league in complete games. Cons: Only a big time pitcher in the early portion of his career and injuries turned him into a very mediocre pitcher the second half of his career. Edited December 1, 2003 by Bored Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted December 1, 2003 Cons: 272 homeruns not a lot for his position; never led a major offensive category except hits ('78, '80); off the field scandal hurt his reputation. Actually, from the spreadsheets I'm working on, the average HOF First baseman has 269 home runs. However, they also have a .504 slugging percentage, well above Garvey's .446 career mark. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
phoenixrising 0 Report post Posted December 1, 2003 For the ten I would pick: Paul Molitor Dennis Eckersley Ryne Sandberg Andre Dawson Rich Gossage Jim Rice Steve Garvey Dave Parker Bruce Sutter Lee Smith I think Molitor and Eckersley are locks, with Sandberg and possibly Dawson also getting in. I wouldn't be surprised if five or six other players from this class get in over the next two years, as there is no Hall of Fame lock outside of Boggs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
starvenger 0 Report post Posted December 1, 2003 Obviously, Molitor and Eckersley are locks to make the hall. Maybe not this year (because who knows what the voters will do), but they WILL make it. Of the others, there are plenty of guys that I'd like to SEE make it. I'd like to see Blyleven, Carter, Garvey, Gossage, Hernandez, John, El Presidente, Morris, Parker, Sandberg and Trammell. Some of these guys (Carter and Martinez) are known for famous moments, others are beneficiaries of the New York media, and Garvey, well, you know. It all depends on how the voters feel that day, I suppose. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
