MLB 2004 Predictions

[HarleyQuinn 0]

Roger Clemens sold his a long time ago and look where it got him.

1 WS ring and 3 Cy Youngs?

[the max 0]

I'll laugh when the Yanks win and Cubs fans try to leech of the Curse of the Bambino as an excuse.

And I'll laugh when the Yankees don't advance in the playoffs and you end up going crazier.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I'll laugh when the Cubs sweep the Yankees in 4 because they have way better pitching which is what wins titles

First off, that's a load of crap. Pitching alone does not win titles. Pitching AND hitting wins titles.

 

Second, I don't know where this attitude comes from that the Cubs are easy favorites. They added Maddux. The Astros added Pettitte AND Clemens. That's on top of Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt. On top of that, the Astros scored 75 more runs than the Cubs last season, and the Cubs really haven't done anything significant to their offense.

 

Third, I'll be shocked if that pitching staff lasts the season with Dusty Baker's reputation for overuse.

 

Fourth, the Yankees are not lightweights in the pitching department. Kevin Brown will reach 200 wins this season, as will Mike Mussina. Javier Vazquez is even better than those two. Jose Contreras is a competant #4, and you only need four starters for the postseason.

[Guest Anglesault]

Roger Clemens sold his a long time ago and look where it got him.

1 WS ring and 3 Cy Youngs?

2 rings.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

And a Hummer.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

and pissed off fans in Boston, Toronto(?) and New York...

[Guest Anglesault]

And a Hummer.

2 hummers.

 

One of which he should give back now.

[CanadianChris 0]

Second, I don't know where this attitude comes from that the Cubs are easy favorites.  They added Maddux.  The Astros added Pettitte AND Clemens.  That's on top of Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt.

Maddux will make that entire rotation better just by being there. They were already ahead of the Astros before signing him (Prior and Wood are that much better than Oswalt and Miller). He's going to make Clement and Zambrano into quality guys, even more than they were.

 

On top of that, the Astros scored 75 more runs than the Cubs last season, and the Cubs really haven't done anything significant to their offense.

Except add Derrek Lee -- a big upgrade over Choi/Simon/Karros. And Todd Walker's no real slouch either. Plus they'll have Aramis Ramirez for a full season. Meanwhile, the Astros did nothing except get older.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Maddux will make that entire rotation better just by being there. They were already ahead of the Astros before signing him (Prior and Wood are that much better than Oswalt and Miller). He's going to make Clement and Zambrano into quality guys, even more than they were.

 

What is Maddux going to do, sprinkle Clement and Zambrano with his magic pixie dust?

 

Except add Derrek Lee -- a big upgrade over Choi/Simon/Karros. And Todd Walker's no real slouch either. Plus they'll have Aramis Ramirez for a full season. Meanwhile, the Astros did nothing except get older.

 

Forgot about Lee, but he won't make up for 75 runs. Walker and Grudzielanek will equal last season's production from second base. The Astros have Morgan Ensberg, Lance Berkman, and Richard Hidalgo all in their primes.

[Kahran Ramsus 0]

Fourth, the Yankees are not lightweights in the pitching department. Kevin Brown will reach 200 wins this season, as will Mike Mussina. Javier Vazquez is even better than those two. Jose Contreras is a competant #4, and you only need four starters for the postseason.

 

Mr. Glass will be on the DL by May.

 

I'm also not sure how well Vazquez will make the transition to New York. In theory, he is the best pitcher on the staff, but he could be another Jeff Weaver.

 

Wood & Prior are better than anyone on the Astros staff, and Maddux is better than Pettite or Clemens, even these days. Pettite has always been overrated and inconsistant. The big problem, as I have said before, is the regular season. If the Cubs make the playoffs, then that is when they will be real tough to beat. Moreso than Houston or New York, or even Boston.

 

People have too much faith in New York because of A-Rod being there, but they are still a weaker team now than they were before Boone got hurt (A-Rod does not equal Boone + Soriano, unless we are talking fantasy baseball) and nobody was picking them then. There are still numerous questions about their rotation (mainly health, not skill), Giambi is useless in the field and injury-prone, Bernie is done, Lofton is no longer an every day player, they've got nothing at 2B unless they make a trade, Sheffield & Giambi are a part of steroid allegations, Posada is getting older, and their bullpen blows aside from Quantrill & Rivera (add Gordon to the injury-in-waiting parade).

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Mr. Glass will be on the DL by May.

 

Of course Kevin Brown is an injury risk, but so are most pitchers. He only needs three wins to get 200.

 

I'm also not sure how well Vazquez will make the transition to New York. In theory, he is the best pitcher on the staff, but he could be another Jeff Weaver.

 

I never bought into the transition argument. Its going to take alot to make a guy who strikes out a batter an inning into a bad pitcher.

 

Wood & Prior are better than anyone on the Astros staff, and Maddux is better than Pettite or Clemens, even these days. Pettite has always been overrated and inconsistant. The big problem, as I have said before, is the regular season. If the Cubs make the playoffs, then that is when they will be real tough to beat. Moreso than Houston or New York, or even Boston.

 

I put alot of stock into peripherals. A pitcher's strikeout rate is the first piece of evidence when predicting future success. Maddux's K rate his been declining the last few years, while Clemens' is still among the league leaders, and Pettitte's is higher than Maddux's as well. As for the younger pitchers, Mark Prior is the best, without a doubt. Roy Oswalt, however, is better than Kerry Wood. Oswalt has a 2.92 career ERA while pitching in HOUSTON.

 

People have too much faith in New York because of A-Rod being there, but they are still a weaker team now than they were before Boone got hurt (A-Rod does not equal Boone + Soriano, unless we are talking fantasy baseball) and nobody was picking them then. There are still numerous questions about their rotation (mainly health, not skill), Giambi is useless in the field and injury-prone, Bernie is done, Lofton is no longer an every day player, they've got nothing at 2B unless they make a trade, Sheffield & Giambi are a part of steroid allegations, Posada is getting older, and their bullpen blows aside from Quantrill & Rivera (add Gordon to the injury-in-waiting parade).

 

The lineup is tough, even without a second baseman. The big problem for the Yankees is pitching. If injuries strike, the team is in a heck of alot of trouble. If they stay healthy, they win 110. Personally, I really don't know who the hell to pick. I do agree that the team is no better now than before Boone got injured.

[Kahran Ramsus 0]

I never bought into the transition argument. Its going to take alot to make a guy who strikes out a batter an inning into a bad pitcher.

 

I don't really buy into this too much either, but it is a question mark. I just think that this one will come out in the Yankees favour. I don't see Brown or Leiber doing much though. Leiber's already hurt.

 

The lineup is tough, even without a second baseman. The big problem for the Yankees is pitching. If injuries strike, the team is in a heck of alot of trouble. If they stay healthy, they win 110. Personally, I really don't know who the hell to pick. I do agree that the team is no better now than before Boone got injured.

 

If everything goes right, the Yankees win the World Series. If everything goes wrong, they finish behind a surging Toronto. Something in between is most likely, they make the playoffs but get knocked out before the World Series.

 

I put alot of stock into peripherals. A pitcher's strikeout rate is the first piece of evidence when predicting future success. Maddux's K rate his been declining the last few years, while Clemens' is still among the league leaders, and Pettitte's is higher than Maddux's as well. As for the younger pitchers, Mark Prior is the best, without a doubt. Roy Oswalt, however, is better than Kerry Wood. Oswalt has a 2.92 career ERA while pitching in HOUSTON.

 

Oswalt is better than Wood, but Miller isn't and that's what we are arguing because we have already established that Prior is better than Oswalt. So Chicago has a better #1 guy, and a better #2 guy. I might give you Clemens over Maddux, presuming he makes the jump to the NL okay, but not Pettite. Pettite's K rate is better than Maddux's these days, but his walk rate, ERA & WHIP are consistantly worse. Maddux may be getting older, but Pettite has to make the jump to the NL and to a park which isn't kind to leftys.