EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted March 31, 2004 Al's TSM Baseball Preview Rest assured this will not become a regular occurance, but I wanted to get some thoughts on my first TSM baseball column. Anything I missed, got wrong? What did you like about it? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
treble 0 Report post Posted March 31, 2004 You say that the Giants have won the division 2 years in a row, but didn't they just win the Wild Card in 2002? Good stuff, though. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Anglesault Report post Posted March 31, 2004 You should see if you can get the words all the way across the page. And losing "Roger Clemens (free agency)" while technically correct really ignores the shithead's biggest asshole move in years, complete with a lie that went on for well over a year and becoming the darling of a city that once hated him. It really is a work of beauty. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DerangedHermit 0 Report post Posted March 31, 2004 You say that the Giants have won the division 2 years in a row, but didn't they just win the Wild Card in 2002? Good stuff, though. Yeah, D-Backs won the NL West in 2002. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sass 0 Report post Posted March 31, 2004 I like how you were just savage towards the Dodgers chances at having a winning season. You speak the truth though Al. The team has one of the best pitching staffs in the league but they have absolute shit for hitting. They are totally unbalanced and need a power hitter in the worst kind of way so that perhaps the other members around him might feel "inspired" once again (see Green, Shawn). FOX management handled the team so poorly that you can't even call this season a "rebuilding" one since no major (or good) acquistions were made in the off-season due to the stalled negotiations to sell the team during the whole off-season which prevented the (remaining) front office members to make any moves. Eric Gagne is the only player on that team who can give fans a glimmer of hope at winning and instead of giving him a pay raise which he wanted (and deservingly so I'd say), the team takes him to court and wins by cutting the money he was asking for in half. The McCourts might be the death knell for this team yet. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Anglesault Report post Posted March 31, 2004 The team has one of the best pitching staffs in the league And Jeff Weaver. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted March 31, 2004 You say that the Giants have won the division 2 years in a row, but didn't they just win the Wild Card in 2002? They did indeed. You should see if you can get the words all the way across the page. And losing "Roger Clemens (free agency)" while technically correct really ignores the shithead's biggest asshole move in years, complete with a lie that went on for well over a year and becoming the darling of a city that once hated him. It really is a work of beauty. I just wrote up the article in basic html and shipped it to Tom, so blame him. As for Clemens, I was glad to see him stay in baseball. Not to screw the Yankees, but that he is just too good to retire at this point. I like how you were just savage towards the Dodgers chances at having a winning season. People don't realize exactly how bad the Dodgers offense was. The TIGERS scored more runs last season! They traded Kevin Brown for Jeff Weaver. Weaver has never had a season as good as Brown's 2003. And except for Shawn Green, I don't see a player we should EXPECT to get better. There's no reason to put faith in this team. I should note that the Dodgers have picked up Jason Grabowski and Jayson Werth in the last week. Werth could play center, and Grabowski could play right field and allow Green to move to first base. Whether they do this or not is speculative, but I think its a small step in the right direction. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest OctoberBlood Report post Posted March 31, 2004 Well for starters, the Reds lineup is better than average, and the starting pitching is not horrible. You may be forgetting Jose Acevedo, and Aaron Harang, who have been pitching lights out in ST (yeah yeah, but when looking at specific numbers, like bb/k rates, Harang is amazing), and of coruse - Acevedo's great 5 starts last year before getting hurt. These two are very bright spots in the rotation this year and Reds expect quailty stuff of them. Secondly, Claussen is starting the season in Louisville. With that said, good stuff (despite overrating the Cardinals, who I think are horrible, and will surprise alot of people, sure, but in a bad way). They might finish above the Reds, but not by much. And, on a positive note - Ryan Fucking Wagner! The kid continues to amaze everyday. He struck out 4 in a row today, and his spring stats are mind blowingly good. ERA under 1, around 5 hits in over 14 innings, and only 3 walks. He is gonna be filthy good. Yeah, you people may be thinking I'm overhyping the Reds too much, and have pretty little rosie blinders on, but I'm the one who watches every game and follows every move. I really think, if Kearns, Dunn, Casey, Griffey, Lidle and the rest of the crew are healthy for the season, alot of people like Ken Rothenvomit (who rated the Reds worst in the majors? WTF?) are gonna eat their words. Do I expect a winning season this year? No, not really .. but it could happen, because the talent IS there. I'm just incredibly happy with Dan O'Briens trades and outlooks. Instead of having Jimmy Orca Anderson and Joey Hamilton waiting in the wings at Louisville, we got Claussen, Nelson, Bong, Mosley, Hall, and alot of other young, talented, full of potetial pitchers.. that, is what makes me happy. Ah, yeah - flame, laugh and whatever away. I'll proudly take the hits. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest OctoberBlood Report post Posted March 31, 2004 Edit: Goddamn this boards' servers suck. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted March 31, 2004 And Jeff Weaver. Weaver should rebound. Take a close look at his 2003 stats. 211 hits in 159.3 innings. Recent research has shown pitchers have little control over hits allowed. I would presume Weaver allowed a large number of hits due to poor infield defense, and Bernie Williams' decreasing range. Now he's going to a pitchers park, with the Dodgers behind him (Defense is the one thing they do well). He'll be much better. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Anglesault Report post Posted March 31, 2004 As for Clemens, I was glad to see him stay in baseball. Not to screw the Yankees, but that he is just too good to retire at this point. Eh, and it kind of would have been a shame if after devising that whole scheme, he didn't keep playing. I guess. I still want him to fall down the dugout steps. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MrRant 0 Report post Posted March 31, 2004 You didn't rip Bavasi near enough. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted March 31, 2004 Well for starters, the Reds lineup is better than average, and the starting pitching is not horrible. You may be forgetting Jose Acevedo, and Aaron Harang, who have been pitching lights out in ST (yeah yeah, but when looking at specific numbers, like bb/k rates, Harang is amazing), and of coruse - Acevedo's great 5 starts last year before getting hurt. These two are very bright spots in the rotation this year and Reds expect quailty stuff of them. Secondly, Claussen is starting the season in Louisville. With that said, good stuff (despite overrating the Cardinals, who I think are horrible, and will surprise alot of people, sure, but in a bad way). They might finish above the Reds, but not by much. The pitching being decent is still well behind the other three. Acevedo is indeed a real sleeper. But no one else is going to pitch lights out on that team. As for the Cardinals, they got horrible production from almost everyone. They are one of those teams who will improve simply by plugging the holes. While I don't think the Reds are winning the division. I'm not in the ship that rates them among the worst. I think they have a good shot at .500 at least. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted March 31, 2004 You didn't rip Bavasi near enough. Oddly enough, I got an email defending the Mariners. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Anglesault Report post Posted March 31, 2004 I would presume Weaver allowed a large number of hits due to poor infield defense, and Bernie Williams' decreasing range. . I don't remember that to be true. He gave up a shitload and a half of hits that were hits no matter what. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MrRant 0 Report post Posted March 31, 2004 You didn't rip Bavasi near enough. Oddly enough, I got an email defending the Mariners. It wasn't from me. I can assure you of that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted March 31, 2004 I don't remember that to be true. He gave up a shitload and a half of hits that were hits no matter what. Well, hits allowed are subject to random variation. Weaver's BB and K numbers are still relatively good, and that's a better indicator of future success. It wasn't from me. I can assure you of that. Rest assured, I assumed that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest OctoberBlood Report post Posted March 31, 2004 Well for starters, the Reds lineup is better than average, and the starting pitching is not horrible. You may be forgetting Jose Acevedo, and Aaron Harang, who have been pitching lights out in ST (yeah yeah, but when looking at specific numbers, like bb/k rates, Harang is amazing), and of coruse - Acevedo's great 5 starts last year before getting hurt. These two are very bright spots in the rotation this year and Reds expect quailty stuff of them. Secondly, Claussen is starting the season in Louisville. With that said, good stuff (despite overrating the Cardinals, who I think are horrible, and will surprise alot of people, sure, but in a bad way). They might finish above the Reds, but not by much. The pitching being decent is still well behind the other three. Acevedo is indeed a real sleeper. But no one else is going to pitch lights out on that team. As for the Cardinals, they got horrible production from almost everyone. They are one of those teams who will improve simply by plugging the holes. While I don't think the Reds are winning the division. I'm not in the ship that rates them among the worst. I think they have a good shot at .500 at least. I honestly don't think the Cardinals rotation is any better than the Reds. Other than Matt Morris, who wasn't that great last year, they really have nothing. Suppan? No. Williams? 38 and sucked during the 2nd half last year, and was pretty bad during June and July. Don't expect much from him. Carptener? Sorry, gonna be disappointed. Marquis? Was pretty bad last year, but if he pitches like he did 2 years ago, theres a plus. Their pen is still pretty bad, though having Izzy for a whole year will be an upgrade too. Their offense, however, is one of the best, no doubt. Ok, enough bitching about the Cardinals. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted March 31, 2004 I honestly don't think the Cardinals rotation is any better than the Reds. Other than Matt Morris, who wasn't that great last year, they really have nothing. Suppan? No. Williams? 38 and sucked during the 2nd half last year, and was pretty bad during June and July. Don't expect much from him. Carptener? Sorry, gonna be disappointed. Marquis? Was pretty bad last year, but if he pitches like he did 2 years ago, theres a plus. Their pen is still pretty bad, though having Izzy for a whole year will be an upgrade too. Their offense, however, is one of the best, no doubt. Well, take a close look at that rotation from last season...... Williams (13 Win Shares) Tomko (6) Morris (10) Stephenson (5) Simontacci (2) Haren (1) Six starters with more than 10 starts. Only two of them earned more than six Win Shares. That's incredibly bad. They're keeping Morris and Williams. They added Jeff Suppan (14 Win Shares). That's 12 better than Simontacci, so four wins right there. Suppan's not an all-star, but the point is that he is better than the scrubs of last season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mik 0 Report post Posted March 31, 2004 Awesome preview, Al. For reasons I can't quite put my finger on (cough), I like this one better though... http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2004/c...yson&id=1771198 All favoritism to my favorite team aside, great job. You know more about baseball than I ever will. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest OctoberBlood Report post Posted March 31, 2004 Jeff Suppan could be an upgrade over Simontacci (I doubt he'll pitch like he did for the Pirates), but is no better than a Paul Wilson. BTW, is Haren gonna be in the pen .. or Triple A? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted March 31, 2004 Awesome preview, Al. For reasons I can't quite put my finger on (cough), I like this one better though... http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2004/c...yson&id=1771198 All favoritism to my favorite team aside, great job. You know more about baseball than I ever will. That "election" theme is downright nausiating. I will never understand why the Cubs are always the sure favorites, and the Astros are sure contenders. Especially since the Cubs might miss Prior for a few months. As for the Marlins, it comes down to one simple rule. "When a team improves sharply one season they will almost always decline in the next." Its called the Plexiglass Principle. It doesn't ALWAYS occur, but it has to be taken into consideration. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted March 31, 2004 Jeff Suppan could be an upgrade over Simontacci (I doubt he'll pitch like he did for the Pirates), but is no better than a Paul Wilson. BTW, is Haren gonna be in the pen .. or Triple A? He doesn't have to be better than Wilson. He just has to be league-average, and let the hitters do their work. As for Haren, I believe he is headed towards AAA. He was rushed into the big leagues last season, so some minor league experience should do him good. He's a hell of a pitcher. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kahran Ramsus 0 Report post Posted April 1, 2004 I used to think that the Cubbies were the favourites, but that's before they lost Prior. Houston has to be considered the favourites now, they weren't that far behind to begin with. I think you're biggest problem is the switch between the As and Angels. I really don't see Oakland getting enough support from their lineup this year. You also have more faith in the Braves than I do. Other than that you seem pretty much right on your analysis, although I disagree with some of the outcomes. For example, we both have similar opinions of the Yankees, but I am firmly on the other side of the fence. I can't see them resisting the injuries over a full year like you can. They've already lost Lieber and Giambi is having knee problems just two games into the year. Of course, Boston is also having problems with Garciaparra & Nixon being out for a month so who knows. And if the Yankees and/or Red Sox suffer a rash of injuries, do not be surprised to see the Blue Jays make a run at the playoffs. Well, we're off to a good start. Toronto isn't as talented as either New York or Boston, but they sure seem to be healthier. Their lineup is great, they were second behind Boston last year in runs scored and only Greg Myers really overachieved. There is lots of room for improvement, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jays get to home more than any other team this year. Pitching is weaker than the Yanks or Red Sox, but is at least better than last year. Ultimately it is going to come down to whether the Yankees or Sox can stay healthy, and two games into the year, they haven't. So who knows, I'll remain optimistic. We'll know in April if they have a chance with two series against the Normar-less Red Sox. If they can manage to win those series (or even split), things are really looking good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HarleyQuinn 0 Report post Posted April 1, 2004 Also it looks like the Sox may be missing Trot for all of April. Defense should still be solid though with Pokey shifting to SS/Bellhorn at 2B and maybe Kapler/Burks helping in the outfield. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bored 0 Report post Posted April 1, 2004 I was actually giving some serious consideration about submitting a baseball column to the site and maybe doing one on a regular basis but then thought "nah, Al will do one." You didn't rip Bavasi near enough. Oddly enough, I got an email defending the Mariners. Maybe it was the man himself! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest OctoberBlood Report post Posted April 1, 2004 BTW, Al... BATTERS BA SLG OBA G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS E Guillen .341 .795 .341 16 44 7 15 35 2 0 6 15 0 5 0 0 0 Just Spring Training though, right? One flaw, is that he earned his first walk TODAY. Hehe. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted April 1, 2004 Maybe it was the man himself! I doubt it. Just the classic case of believing the best case scenario, which is understandable. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EVIL~! alkeiper 0 Report post Posted April 1, 2004 BTW, Al... BATTERS BA SLG OBA G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS E Guillen .341 .795 .341 16 44 7 15 35 2 0 6 15 0 5 0 0 0 Just Spring Training though, right? One flaw, is that he earned his first walk TODAY. Hehe. Absolutely its just spring training. I've seen two hitters in the last twenty years hold high production without drawing walks. I don't think Jose Guillen is at that level. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest OctoberBlood Report post Posted April 1, 2004 BTW, Al... BATTERS BA SLG OBA G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS E Guillen .341 .795 .341 16 44 7 15 35 2 0 6 15 0 5 0 0 0 Just Spring Training though, right? One flaw, is that he earned his first walk TODAY. Hehe. Absolutely its just spring training. I've seen two hitters in the last twenty years hold high production without drawing walks. I don't think Jose Guillen is at that level. You mean hold a high OPS driven only by walks? Yeah.. maybe. The guy can hit and will hit. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
