EVIL~! alkeiper Posted June 9, 2004 Report Posted June 9, 2004 Cross-posted at SNKT On ESPN's MLB Page, they have a writeup on Danny Graves. Graves leads the majors with 26 saves, and is on pace to shatter Bobby Thigpen's single season saves record. Here's the problem. He's nothing special as a pitcher. His ERA is pedestrian. Billy Wagner, John Smoltz, Octavio Dotel, Eric Gagne, Braden Looper, Trevor Hoffman, Jose Mesa, Armando Benitez, and Danny Kolb hold better ERAs. His K rate is pedestrian for a closer, and his home run rate (9 in 33 IP) is absolutely abysmal. For what its worth, his DIPS ERA is 5.41, an indicator that he has been lucky. Moreover, his saves have been the sole result of opportunity. He has received 31 opportunities, and saved 26. 83.8%. That's around the league average, maybe a little lower. Put almost any closer in Graves' spot, and he saves 26, and maybe 27. So why is everyone so obsessed with Graves?
Bored Posted June 9, 2004 Report Posted June 9, 2004 Because saves are pretty. I'm sure John Kruk thinks he's best closer in baseball.
CanadianChris Posted June 9, 2004 Report Posted June 9, 2004 So why is everyone so obsessed with Graves? Because people like to look at big numbers without having to make the effort to look at what they mean.
Guest Salacious Crumb Posted June 9, 2004 Report Posted June 9, 2004 Again this is how out of touch ESPN with everyday fans. Most Reds fans are all over Graves for his shortcomings despite having 26 saves. The only breaks he gets from fans is because he was that much worse as a starter. The defense has saved his ass way too many times so far this season.
razazteca Posted June 9, 2004 Report Posted June 9, 2004 Numbers dont lie. Having Sean Casey, Dunn, and Jr run up the score help gives Graves the opportunity for the Saves which he takes advantage of and does not screw up as say a Biddle would.
razazteca Posted June 10, 2004 Report Posted June 10, 2004 I'm just saying that Biddle blows alot of Saves.
treble Posted June 10, 2004 Report Posted June 10, 2004 Oh yeah, Biddle's horrible, so bad that he lost the closer's job.
HarleyQuinn Posted June 10, 2004 Report Posted June 10, 2004 If they had Danny Kolb, Kolb would likely have 29-30 saves out of those 31 opportunities.
EVIL~! alkeiper Posted June 10, 2004 Author Report Posted June 10, 2004 Since I did a little research for this rant, here are the save pcts. for closers this season..... Graves: 83.8% Benitez: 95.8% Herges: 84.2% Kolb: 94.1% Mesa: 100% Hoffman: 93.3% Izzy: 81.3% Gagne: 100% Looper: 91.7% Biddle: 78.6% Dotel: 83.3% Chacon: 71.4% Smoltz: 90% Borowski: 81.8% Wagner: 88.9% Valverde: 71.4% Worrell: 80% Hawkins: 66.7% Mantei: 57.1% Disregard Hawkins, as he's 4-6, and those blown saves came as a set-up man. Set-up men are charged with blown saves when they blow a lead but don't usually get the opportunity to collect saves, thus distorting their percentages.
Gert T Posted June 10, 2004 Report Posted June 10, 2004 Again this is how out of touch ESPN with everyday fans. Most Reds fans are all over Graves for his shortcomings despite having 26 saves. The only breaks he gets from fans is because he was that much worse as a starter. The defense has saved his ass way too many times so far this season. Exactly, he was that bad as a starter, so some his forgiven. Honestly I think last year has shaken his confidence as a closer. Still, he'll end up around 45-50 saves.
The Tino Standard Posted June 10, 2004 Report Posted June 10, 2004 Cincinnati fans can go sit on a stick and spin if they don't like the job Danny Graves is doing as the closer. Try driving up I-71 to Cleveland to see what real bullpen problems look like. If the Tribe had a real closer, they'd be in first place right now, and that is not an exaggeration by any means. By the way, those 26 saves Graves has right now look mighty fine on my fantasy team, thank you very much.
EVIL~! alkeiper Posted June 10, 2004 Author Report Posted June 10, 2004 I'd call it an exaggeration. The Tribe simply doesn't get many save opportunities, and most of that bullpen has been terrible, except for Rafael Betancourt.
geniusMoment Posted June 10, 2004 Report Posted June 10, 2004 I do not ever want to hear the name Danny Graves again. The thing is Danny should easily have 3-5 more blown saves. Guys have hit the ball hard right at people and his defense behind him has saved him.
The Tino Standard Posted June 10, 2004 Report Posted June 10, 2004 I'd call it an exaggeration. The Tribe simply doesn't get many save opportunities, and most of that bullpen has been terrible, except for Rafael Betancourt. Exaggeration? On 13 different occasions this year, and Indians starter has pitched his team to the lead after 7 innings, only to have it blown by the bullpen. If they held SIX of those games (less than half), they'd have 32 wins, which would put them in first place right now. Betancourt has been decent with a 3.99 ERA, but two things about him to keep in mind are: 1. He's 2 of 6 in save chances this year. 2. He is notorious for not being able to pitch well on back-to-back days (his fastball is 3-4 MPH slower the second day, meaning big-time problems). To give you an idea of just how bad it is, despite what I said in the above paragraph, Betancourt has still been hands-down the best reliever. He had been put into the closer's role, but was actually DEMOTED to a setup spot because the rest of the pen was so bad, they couldn't even hold a lead to give him save opportunities in the 9th. Tribe bullpen...
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