Blair loses really heavily in elections

[Vanhalen 0]

I think I can pretty confidentally say, this is the end for Tony Blair

 

Labour is suffering heavy losses in local elections in England and Wales, with several councils changing hands.

So far Labour has lost about 210 seats. David Blunkett said he was "mortified" by the results and blamed the Iraq war for "damaging" the Labour vote.

 

The Tories have gained 101 seats and won Trafford and Tamworth. Charles Kennedy said Lib Dem gains showed the UK now had true three party politics.

 

The London mayor result is due later on Friday with Euro results on Sunday.

 

The turnout across England and Wales is running at 40%, up an average of 9% on last year - an increase not confined to the four regions piloting all-postal ballots.

 

Even with nearly half of the local elections still waiting to be declared key Labour figures acknowledged the party's results have been affected by the Iraq war.

 

Tony Blair said Britain's role in the invasion had cast a "shadow" over the poll.

 

And Home Secretary David Blunkett told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the war had "split" the party.

 

"I'm mortified that we're not doing better than we have done," he said.

 

"We know it's been a bad night ... but not meltdown - no take off for the Conservatives."

 

Projections

 

The elections are the biggest test of voter opinion before the next general election but the final picture will not be clear until the European results appear on Sunday night.

 

So far around 80 out of the 166 councils holding elections have declared the results.

 

On the basis of voting in 300 key wards the BBC is projecting an equivalent national vote for the parties of Tories 38%, Lib Dems 30% and Labour 26%.

 

This would give the Tories a result on a par with its local election results achieved under WIlliam Hague's leadership in 2000.

 

Birmingham, Sheffield and Newcastle are among the big cities not announcing their results until later on Friday.

 

Labour has lost control of the former mining area of Bassetlaw for the first time since 1979, as well as suffering defeats in Burnley, Hastings, Oxford and its traditional stronghold of St Helens.

 

It also lost control of Swansea, as the first Welsh results came in.

 

But the party won Stoke-on-Trent, tightened its grip on Barrow-in-Furness and, despite seat losses, held Manchester.

 

BBC political editor Andrew Marr predicted Mr Blair's critics on Labour's back benches would use the results to reopen discussion about his leadership of the party.

 

The results offer the first electoral verdict on Michael Howard's leadership of the Conservatives.

 

Tory co-chairman Liam Fox said they had won some "spectacular results" and predicted Labour was on course for the worst local council results for a ruling party "in electoral history".

 

He said the Tories were heading for their best poll performance since 1992, although the party lost Shrewsbury and Atcham to no overall control and missed their target seat of Carlisle.

 

"I don't for a minute say that the result today would guarantee the Conservatives winning a general election, that would be absurd ... but it's good solid progress for us," he told Today.

 

He said: "We are back in metropolitan areas in a way that we haven't been since the mid-1980s."

 

The Lib Dems held Liverpool and won 10 seats in Manchester but dropped control of Eastbourne to the Tories, as well as losing Norwich and Cheltenham.

 

Leader Charles Kennedy said: "This is a great result for the Liberal Democrats...

 

"We're continuing to not just hold, but to substantially advance our position, this is really three party politics in Britain and the media here really need to wake up to that fact."

 

The UK Independence Party won a council seat in Hull and another in Derby.

 

UKIP leader Roger Knapman said his party had taken votes from all three major parties and hoped good results in the European elections would mean it was "riding a wave".

 

Green shoots?

 

The Green Party will also be buoyed by taking its first ever seat in Manchester, as well as picking up four seats in Oxford.

 

The British National Party failed to gain ground on Burnley Council, where it slipped into fourth place, losing one seat to the Conservatives but gaining one from Labour.

 

The final days of campaigning were marred in some areas piloting all-postal votes by allegations of fraud and voter intimidation, which are being investigated by the police and the Electoral Commission.

 

An independent councillor in Hull has said he intends to mount a legal challenge against his election result.

[Art Sandusky 0]

Oof. I knew Blair and the party were screwed, but damn.

[Vanhalen 0]

This could get even worse, as the European elections and some of the local elections are still to come in.

[Vern Gagne 0]

So does this mean the British equivilent of the right has control?

[Vanhalen 0]

We do, pretty much, unless we spectatularly fuck it up before the General Election.

[Vanhalen 0]

A good analysis here:

 

Only the most pessimistic of Labour managers had expected it to be quite this bad.

With about half the local council results in, the party was heading for one of its worst ever performances.

 

Tony Blair was facing the real prospect that his leadership will now be a matter of serious debate amongst Labour MPs as they consider the consequences for their own seats in a general election.

 

The BBC's projections suggest Labour will be forced into third place, in terms of share of the vote, behind Michael Howard's Tory party and the Liberal Democrats.

 

It will be the first time a governing party has been forced into third place.

 

And while the prime minister will be gloomily pondering the results, Michael Howard will be claiming he has scored precisely the win he needed to help the Tories build towards the general election expected in a year's time.

 

It may not have been enough on its own to suggest he could actually win that election.

 

Central figure

 

But he had been looking for signs the Tories could get back into the cities and for a "building blocks" performance. And he appears to be on course to get that.

 

The smaller parties, including the UK Independence Party and the Greens also improved their performance although there was no advance for the BNP.

 

Party bosses will be waiting for the full results later on Friday, but it was highly likely the trends emerging overnight will be continued.

 

And by far the most significant result is for the prime minister - even over and above the performance of the Labour Party itself.

 

Because, as far as many are concerned, it was Tony Blair who was at the centre of this mid-term disaster.

 

The prime minister knew he was going to be hit, largely because of his position on the war on Iraq and its fallout, but he probably did not expect this poor a showing.

 

Howard's hope

 

If he was looking for any crumbs of comfort he will be disappointed. It appeared discontent with him - or at least his decision to go to war with Iraq - was a major factor in the Labour vote.

 

Ministers immediately attempted to suggest this was all simply a bit of traditional mid-term blues with voters delivering a strong protest vote.

 

They will insist that the Tories failed to make the sort of breakthrough they needed - particularly in urban areas - to suggest it could win a general election.

 

  Whether he can then get away with simply brushing aside these results as mid-term blues or whether they will spark a leadership crisis in Westminster will big the big question.

 

 

And, while Mr Howard will undoubtedly be celebrating his performance, critics will suggest he still has to prove he can do what William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith failed to do by scoring that long-awaited breakthrough.

 

Similarly, it will be argued - even despite a second place finish in terms of votes - that the Liberal Democrats did less well than they might have hoped, particularly as they had been banking on picking up large numbers of anti-war protest votes.

 

And of course the news might be better for the prime minister from the London Mayoral results later on Friday where Labour's Ken Livingstone could win. And if opinion polls are true Sunday night's European Parliament results could see UKIP transferring the spotlight to Mr Howard's leadership.

 

But, in the face of a government defeat of these proportions in the local elections, such grabbing at straws must ring pretty hollow.

 

All eyes will now turn onto the Labour Party to see whether panic sets in and if these results mark the start of something more significant for the prime minister.

 

If backbenchers do panic, then things could yet get very much worse for Tony Blair - who was out of the country as the results came in.

 

There had already been reports that he was ready to stand down if he proved a electoral liability.

 

Whether he can then get away with simply brushing aside these results as mid-term blues or whether they will spark a leadership crisis in Westminster will big the big question.

[Art Sandusky 0]

Man, it's wild to see how our country and Britain acted in response to the invasion. Shows the difference in cultures and general attitudes, I suppose.

[Mystery Eskimo 0]

Saying the right has control now doesnt really mean anything; the Tories arent any further right than Blair essentially. As such I wouldnt really care if they did win the election, although Michael Howard as PM is just a frightening thought.

 

Good to see the LibDems continuing to grow stronger.

[Guest Cerebus]

Could Blair loose his place as PM before the general election?

[caboose 0]

Probably not, but there will be pressure on him to step down as leader of Labour and allow Gordan Brown to run for Prime Minister at the next election.

 

Hopefully Blair will step down and Brown will come in. I'd hate to see the Conservatives back in. As pathetically weak as Blair has become, the Tories and Howard would be much worse.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

So... will we hear "The Brits are appeasing terror" as the ruling party is being voted down?

[Vanhalen 0]

Meh, we vote who we vote for, you guys vote for whoever you want, I look forward to us suddenly being against the war on terror, Im sure that will be fun ;P

[Zorin Industries 0]

Just checked the results now, Labour has really taken a beating. I'd say things have to be looking bleak for Tony Blair, I think his reign as Teflon Tony has just about come to an end (then again with Blair you never know)

[Mystery Eskimo 0]

The thing on Iraq is that the Tories were supporting Labour all the way in going to war. So if the Conservatives did win the next election, the countries position on that would be exactly the same.

 

I think Blair will survive this, if only because no one really trusts Gordon Brown. These are only council elections after all, and no matter how badly Labour have done, if they win the election no one will care about this.

[Jobber of the Week 0]

This hardly sounds like what people are making it out to be. Was it good numbers for Labor? No. Was it the big wake-up call to Blair that everbody was expecting? No, not really.

 

My guess is Blair doesn't go anywhere. All these "I'll show you!" Lib Dem votes disappear in the general election.

[Vanhalen 0]

Yeah but Jobber, more results have come in, even Labour have lost Newcastle, they held that for over 30 years, Newcastle is about as Labour as you can get, this is a bad night.

[Murmuring Beast 0]

Blunkett's an arsehole.

 

I voted Lib Dem.

[Anorak 0]

I think Blair will survive this, if only because no one really trusts Gordon Brown.

I couldn't see many people at all voting for Brown, I certainly wouldn't.

[Zorin Industries 0]

Who else is there that would make a good replacement for Tony, apart from Brown?

[Guest MikeSC]

Who else is there that would make a good replacement for Tony, apart from Brown?

Well, at the risk of giving away a possibly juicy conspiracy, he's typing at you right now.

-=Mike

...PM of the UK --- and I ain't even British

[Zorin Industries 0]

Well, you are probably better than Thatcher

[Vern Gagne 0]

Well, you are probably better than Thatcher

Careful what you say about Baroness Thatcher. After her eulogy at President Reagan's memorial..who seriously might be looking at American's next honorary citizen.

[Zorin Industries 0]

That could be true, but what you have to remember that her legacy in the U.K. still divides people to this day. Take the Bush hate and then double it, and you have a good idea about how the U.K. still feels about Thatcher

[Mystery Eskimo 0]

Who else is there that would make a good replacement for Tony, apart from Brown?

There isn't anyone. I'd like the next PM to be Charles Kennedy.

 

Or, for comedy purposes, Boris Johnson. Imagine PM question's time...

[Zorin Industries 0]

Heh, having the Jackel as PM would certainly be interesting. Every seen the episode of Have I Got News For You when he was presenting?

[Mystery Eskimo 0]

Yeah, that was hilarious, they should have him on again. Bless him.

[Guest MikeSC]

That could be true, but what you have to remember that her legacy in the U.K. still divides people to this day. Take the Bush hate and then double it, and you have a good idea about how the U.K. still feels about Thatcher

It's a shame that she's the last competent PM y'all have had.

-=Mike

...Thatcher: One of the last "substance over style" political figures...