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Gert T

Fantasy Keeper Question

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I figured I would wait until you guys drafted in your league to ask this.

 

I am in a 12 team, 2 player keeper league. Last year I kept Donovan McNabb & Deuce McAllister. Obviously I am still going to keep Deuce, but I am stuck on who I am going to keep, eith McNabb or Matt Hasselbeck.

 

Donovan McNabb

 

Pros:

 

- Now has Terrell Owens which should significantly increase his TD numbers.

 

- Plays against the AFC North, which besides Baltimore, does not claim very good defenses.

 

- Plays the NFC North is the cross-over NFC games, which also do not have great pass defenses.

 

- Good running QB.

 

Cons:

 

- Had a disappointing fantasy year last year.

 

- Eagles do not seem to have a dominant running game, which will open up the passing game as much as Seattle.

 

 

Matt Hasselbeck

 

Pros:

 

- Great 1-2-3 WR's (Assuming they catch the balls)

 

- Plays San Francisco & Arizona twice

 

- Shaun Alexander opens up passing game.

 

Cons:

 

- Plays the AFC East in crossover games, which all have decent to great D's

 

 

Thanks for checking this out, and for any input.

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I'd be inclined to keep McNabb as he runs and finally has a dangerous guy to throw to, and I'm also wary about guys like Hasselbeck having career years and then defenses figuring them out. Plus, I like McNabb's matchups better. That said, I think Hasselbeck will have a good year.....

 

Good luck ;)

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I would say to keep McNabb. He always seems to start slow (fantasy-wise), but generally gets better as the year goes on. Not that Hasselbeck would be a bad keeper, but Koren Robinson hasn't impressed yet. We're still waiting to see him break out...

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Guest Crazy Dan

I had Hasselbeck last year... playing up to his talent. Not a bad QB at all, a definate a top round pick. But McNabb is a double threat, as he can score in the air or run it on the ground. Having Owens will be big, but Owens is scared to get hit, as evidenced on his alf-ass attempts, at times. But if this guy gets open, he is deadly. So McNabb should have a 20+ TD year, with the possibilty of getting some TD's on the ground.

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Actually, I'm going to play dissenting opinion and choose Hasselbeck. McNabb's rushing capabilities are certainly a perk at QB, but they also frequently put him into position to have the tar beat out of him (which, in the scope of a long-term keeper league, ramps up the risk factor).

 

Hasselbeck, however, has steadily improved the last two years, has a great corps of wideouts to throw to, has a running game to keep defenses honest, and a style of quarterbacking that doesn't necessarily put him in harm's way on a regular basis.

 

Make no mistake, I'd take McNabb if I wanted a leader for my real football team, but the potential risk of him losing time during any given season from running drops him down a very small notch below Hasselbeck.

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I guess I should also add I am a little bitter at McNabb because after his 2002 season (17 TD's passing, 6 rushing), he kind of had a subpar fantasy year, and I let a running back go who in 2002 had about 1,100 yards but only 5 TD's.

 

Damn what was his name....... I think he played for the Ravens.

 

The real problem with our league is that with 12 teams and 2 keepers, 24 guys are already gone, and I believe 15 will be RB's. Therefore RB 17-20 may not be worth my pick at #8 in the "first round", but then you have no one left.

 

Hasselbeck & Darrell Jackson combo was a good one that I had last year.

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My roster from last year was this:

 

QB: Donovan McNabb

QB: Matt Hasselbeck

QB: David Carr

RB: Deuce McAllister

RB: Tiki Barber

RB: Jerome Bettis

RB: Mike Cloud

WR: Donald Driver

WR: Ashley Lelie

WR: Chris Chambers

WR: Darrell Jackson

WR: Jimmy Smith

WR: Johnnie Morton

 

 

So I really have no 2nd RB to keep and while I thought I had a great WR corps, many of them were VERY disappointing.

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The only thing I can say about Tiki is that he's likely to get the ball more with a rookie QB as the potential starter. And while that's a good thing, it also gives him more of an opportunity to fumble the ball as well. He'll likely still be around when it comes to you to draft.

 

Looking through my 2 FF books, they've got McNabb ranked #4 and 8, and Hasselback at #6 and 3. Which tells me that you should flip a coin and trade one of them for some draft picks. As I said before, I'd still keep McNabb, but looking over stats and such again I don't think you lose either way.

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The only thing I can say about Tiki is that he's likely to get the ball more with a rookie QB as the potential starter. And while that's a good thing, it also gives him more of an opportunity to fumble the ball as well. He'll likely still be around when it comes to you to draft.

Or it means that defenses will key on Tiki first, knowing full well that they've got a rookie quarterback. Given his propensity for fumbles and the fact that he's not a bigger, stronger back (and, thus, able to take more abuse), I'd let somebody else take Tiki and sneak away with somebody like Domanick Davis, who's got the same "two-way threat" capabilities as Barber.

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I got a feeling that Davis goes before Tiki in our draft.

 

Another problem too, is that I pick 8th, and the only people that are keeping 2 RB's pick 9, 11, & 12 I believe, so in worse case scenario 6 RB's will probably go before I get a shot at one.

 

But I would love for Davis to fall to me.

 

Anybody heard about the off-season workouts of T.J. Duckett & Michael Bennett?

 

I heard that Duckett has lost about 15 pounds, and a Minnesota radio man said that Bennett is running well. The problem with both is how deep both backfields are, so I don't think I can use a 1st round pick on either (Actually 3rd round since we keep 2)

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The only thing I can say about Tiki is that he's likely to get the ball more with a rookie QB as the potential starter.  And while that's a good thing, it also gives him more of an opportunity to fumble the ball as well.  He'll likely still be around when it comes to you to draft.

Or it means that defenses will key on Tiki first, knowing full well that they've got a rookie quarterback. Given his propensity for fumbles and the fact that he's not a bigger, stronger back (and, thus, able to take more abuse), I'd let somebody else take Tiki and sneak away with somebody like Domanick Davis, who's got the same "two-way threat" capabilities as Barber.

Personally I think that you try and pressure the QB more, but that's a good point. Not that Tiki needed extra defensive pressure to help him fumble last year or anything.

 

Maybe you could play some mind games with your fellow draftees. Manning's a rookie, so he'll be tested - that means that Shockey and Toomer won't see the ball much, but Barber will. He and Ronde actually swtiched places last year. etc.

 

Meanwhile, I'll be trying to use Barber to help me move up in the draft...

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Good point, if I talk up Tiki enough I can even say "well I had to keep a QB", then maybe someone will take him and leave me a Domanick Davis or Rudi Johnson.

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Guest Smell the ratings!!!

honestly, I would keep Barber over either QB. He should be around #15 for backs, and to hear you tell it, you'll probably be looking at guys like Staley, Westbrook, Garner, etc. with pick 8.

 

hell if the first 6 picks are backs like you think, you can get one of your QB's back with the 8th pick.

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honestly, I would keep Barber over either QB. He should be around #15 for backs, and to hear you tell it, you'll probably be looking at guys like Staley, Westbrook, Garner, etc. with pick 8.

 

hell if the first 6 picks are backs like you think, you can get one of your QB's back with the 8th pick.

Let's see, 12 teams, 15 RBs projected to be protected. That leaves 15 RBs available, and at most 9 QBs protected (although I'd guess that only 6-7 will be). Hasselback or McNabb would be considered an upgrade for most QBs, so I could see Gert's dropped QB getting picked up before #8. If everyone ahead of you picks up RBs, then you go with "best player available regardless of position", which is likely a QB or the WR ranked #4 on everyone's depth chart (I'm thinking that Moss, Harrison and Owens may be protected). If you manage to pick up a top-notch QB, you'd probably be able to flip him for a RB later.

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Guest Salacious Crumb

I have to be honest when I say I'd take Hasselbeck over McNabb as far as a keeper league. Hasselbeck could potentially throw for 4000 yds. and 30 TDs. He's been improving with every game and he plays in a more passer friendly offense.

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Guest Rrrsh

Id take Hasselback purely because he has been more healthy in the past. Plus the East has better defences than Arizona and San Fran.

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Here's my take...

 

Donovan McNabb

- Has thrown for 21 TD's in 2000 and 25 TD's in 2001 and has seen his TD numbers decline to 17 and 16. The addition of TO will likely get him to around the 21-24 mark again. His INT's are good as he generally keeps them around 13, never throwing more then 13 and throwing less then 10 once(6 in 2002). His rushing yards make him a great asset as he can run for 420+ easy with the number of carries he gives himself(lowest # of attempts was 63 in 2002).

 

McNabb's ranking amongst QB's according to the pro-football-reference fantasy scoring.

2000 = 5th

2001 = 5th

2002 = 12th

2003 = 13th

 

Matt Hasselbeck

- Has steadily improved since 2001, raising his YPA from 6.3 to 7.3 to 7.5 last season. Threw for 15 TD's in 2002 and boosted that to 26 in 2003. Had a better completion % then McNabb with 2 straight 61%+ seasons which makes him a better bet to throw for more yards. Isn't much of a running threat but is capable of getting you 35+ carries and 140 yards with 1 TD or 2. With the offense he's in, can easily throw for 3,500+ in any given year. He only played in 14 games in 2002 but projecting his yards to a full 16 games means he would've thrown for 3,514 yards and 17 TD's which aren't bad at all and probably could have seen him slide to around the 13 or 12 spot amongst QB's.

 

His rankings for the past 2 seasons

2002 = 17th

2003 = 6th

 

My opinion: You can't really go wrong with keeping either guy but I'd keep Hasselbeck as I'm a big believer in completion % which usually results in more passing yards and more TD's through the air.

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Guest Flyboy

I would definitely go with Hasselbeck -- his WRs corps. is truly scary and he has Alexander to take the pressure off of him... *realizes he's saying the same thing that MiB stated*

 

Uh, yeah.

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