MLB Award Balloting

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

The Hardball Times keeps a record of Bill James' Win Shares statistic for the current season. I have explained Win Shares previously, and while it is not the only metric out there, it is reasonably good. In any case, it provides a decent picture of accomplishments from each player. So how would Win Shares see the postseason voting at this point? Here are the leaders, with statistics tabulated as of September 9th:

 

AL MVP

1. Gary Sheffield, NYY

2. Hideki Matsui, NYY

3. Alex Rodriguez, NYY

4. Manny Ramirez, Bos

5. Carlos Guillen, Det

6. Miguel Tejada, Balt

7. Johan Santana, Min

8. Vladimir Guerrero, Ana

9. Ichiro Suzuki, Sea

10. Johnny Damon, Bos

 

AL Cy Young

1. Johan Santana, Min

2. Curt Schilling, Bos

3. Mark Mulder, Oak

 

Win Shares ranks Pedro Martinez ahead of Mulder in total Win Shares, but I feel the Cy Young should be tabulated solely on a pitcher's accomplishments on the mound. Otherwise I would have to cast a vote for Brooks Kieschnick.

 

AL Rookie of the Year

1. Bobby Crosby, Oak

2. Shingo Takatsu, CWS

3. Daniel Cabrera, Balt

 

Before anyone asks, Lew Ford is not eligible for the Rookie of the Year award. The race for third place is desperately close, as Zach Greinke trails Cabrera by 1/10th of a Win Share.

 

NL MVP

1. Barry Bonds, SF

2. Scott Rolen, StL

3. Albert Pujols, StL

4. Jim Edmonds, StL

5. Mark Loretta, SD

6. Adrian Beltre, LA

7. Bobby Abreu, Phi

8. Sean Casey, Cin

9. J.D. Drew, Atl

10. Todd Helton, Col

 

The top eight all rank above AL leader Gary Sheffield in Win Shares.

 

NL Cy Young

1. Randy Johnson, Ari

2. Ben Sheets, Mil

3. Jason Schmidt, SF

 

NL Rookie of the Year

1. Khalil Greene, SD

2. Jason Bay, Pit

3. Kazuo Matsui, NYM

 

Now onto Gold Gloves. These are fun, because baseball writers rarely look over statistics before choosing them, and tradional fielding statistics are highly unreliable anyway. And perceptions of fielding tend to linger after natural ability has declined. So you get a few players you would not have otherwise expected. Win Shares does not consider the fielding contributions of the pitcher worth measuring.

 

AL Gold Gloves

C Damian Miller, Oak

1B Mark Teixeira, Tex

2B Luis Rivas, Min

SS Christian Guzman, Min

3B Alex Rodriguez, NYY

OF Johnny Damon, Bos

OF Mark Kotsay, Oak

OF Torii Hunter, Min

 

Shortstop almost provided the ultimate WTF moment, as Derek Jeter, the bane of statheads everywhere, ranks second amongst AL shortstops in Win Shares as a fielder.

 

NL Gold Gloves

C Brian Schneider, Mon

1B Todd Helton, Col

2B Mark Loretta, SD

SS Jack Wilson, Pit

3B Scott Rolen, StL

OF Andruw Jones, Atl

OF Jim Edmonds, StL

OF Corey Patterson, ChC

 

Win Shares sees Brian Schneider as the most valuable defensive player in baseball. Who knew? It is worth noting that Carlos Beltran's combined totals for both leagues would edge out Corey Patterson.

[Guest Anglesault]

AL MVP

1. Gary Sheffield, NYY

2. Hideki Matsui, NYY

3. Alex Rodriguez, NYY

Er, uh..

[Brett Favre 0]

According to this, the Yankee lineup is the MVP.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

According to this, the Yankee lineup is the MVP.

It has to be to survive their pitching.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

As for Alex Rodriguez, it is important to remember that Win Shares gives him a fair deal of credit for his fielding abilities.

[mike546 0]

A-Rod?

[Guest Anglesault]

A-Rod?

Well, it's understandable, I guess...

 

I honestly have no clue.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

A-Rod? 

Well, it's understandable, I guess...

 

I honestly have no clue.

While his hitting stats are down, they are still good. 285/373/512. He also plays gold glove defense, and he gets credit for 23 steals while getting caught only 4 times. The system doesn't only use base hitting statistics.

[Guest Anglesault]

A-Rod?  

Well, it's understandable, I guess...

 

I honestly have no clue.

While his hitting stats are down, they are still good. 285/373/512.

The numbers are deceptive. While I wouldn't use the word "bomb" I think it's safe to say that Yankee fans are just now starting to trust him in any kind of meaningful spot.

[Guest MikeSC]

A-Rod? 

Well, it's understandable, I guess...

 

I honestly have no clue.

While his hitting stats are down, they are still good. 285/373/512. He also plays gold glove defense, and he gets credit for 23 steals while getting caught only 4 times. The system doesn't only use base hitting statistics.

Um, isn't TX' record better than it was last year?

 

Isn't the Yanks' record a little worse?

 

If both statements are true --- can ANYBODY justify giving A-Rod MVP?

-=Mike

[Guest Anglesault]

Isn't the Yanks' record a little worse?

We're three games better.

[Krankor 0]

According to this, the Yankee lineup is the MVP.

NL MVP

1. Barry Bonds, SF

2. Scott Rolen, StL

3. Albert Pujols, StL

4. Jim Edmonds, StL

 

The same goes for the Cardinals. Rolen ahead of Pujols? Just the thought of that is absurd.

[mike546 0]

I can't believe Edmonds doesn't win.

 

I swear, every freakin time I turn on Sports Center, I see him and that retarded cocky swing bomb a home run.

[UZI Suicide 0]

Mark Loretta above Adrian Beltre?

 

Mark Loretta?

 

MARK LORETTA?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Um, isn't TX' record better than it was last year?

 

Isn't the Yanks' record a little worse?

 

If both statements are true --- can ANYBODY justify giving A-Rod MVP?

-=Mike

 

Because those teams don't exist in a world where A-Rod was the only difference with the same 24 other players every year. The Rangers improved because their pitching went from BAD (5.67 ERA), to respectable (4.50 ERA). Last season they had only three starters collect ERAs under SIX. That's why Texas sucked before this year. Their offense was always good, but they couldn't pitch.

 

Likewise, the Yankees lost Clemens and Pettitte, and Vazquez and Brown haven't filled the void. Are their failures Rodriguez's fault?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

According to this, the Yankee lineup is the MVP.

NL MVP

1. Barry Bonds, SF

2. Scott Rolen, StL

3. Albert Pujols, StL

4. Jim Edmonds, StL

 

The same goes for the Cardinals. Rolen ahead of Pujols? Just the thought of that is absurd.

Again, fielding counts in these things. Win Shares credits Pujols with 33.3 hitting shares, and 2.0 shares for his fielding. Rolen gets 31.0 hitting shares, and 5.4 fielding shares. Thus Rolen edges Pujols 36.4 to 35.3.

[Guest Staravenger]

Are their failures Rodriguez's fault?

Sounds like more of a statement to be "kool" by making fun of the Yankees, despite being as good as they were last year in the W-L columns. They lead the league in home runs for the first time in decades, but the pitching, like mentioned, hasn't been too great, even from Mariano Rivera, the best closer in the majors, has been having a little more trouble this year than years past.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Mark Loretta above Adrian Beltre?

 

Mark Loretta?

 

MARK LORETTA?

I can see it. Loretta is playing Gold Glove caliber defense at second base while hitting .346 and slugging .518. His side-by-side hitting stats may not look impressive at first, but you have to remember that Petco Park is the most extreme pitchers' park in the Majors. Loretta's hitting statistics become more valuable in such a scarce hitting environment.

[mike546 0]

Are their failures Rodriguez's fault?

Sounds like more of a statement to be "kool" by making fun of the Yankees, despite being as good as they were last year in the W-L columns. They lead the league in home runs for the first time in decades, but the pitching, like mentioned, hasn't been too great, even from Mariano Rivera, the best closer in the majors, has been having a little more trouble this year than years past.

 

Mo's had his like best year ever. He doesn't K guys as much, but he still gets the job done. He had under 1.00 ERA for like 2/3rds of the season, and he only has like a 1.84 ERA. He has47 saves, only three blown. He's struggled once during this entire season, the two blown saves in a row against the Sox and Jays. Other than a cheap hrmer by Benji Molina, he's been awesome.

[The Czech Republic 0]

Mark Loretta above Adrian Beltre?

 

Mark Loretta?

 

MARK LORETTA?

His side-by-side hitting stats may not look impressive at first, but you have to remember that Petco Park is the most extreme pitchers' park in the Majors.

They have to call it Petco Park?

 

Petco Park?

 

PETCO PARK?

[Guest Staravenger]

Rivera has more trouble finding the strike zone than any other year he's pitched, has walked more batters, and has not been as dominate as before, allowing too many base runners in key situations.

[mike546 0]

That's because hes throwing the two seemer this season. And who cares how many base runners get on base as long as they don't score?

 

 

EDIT:

G IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA

1996 NYY 61 107. 73 25 25 1 34 130 8 3 5 27 3 2.09

1997 NYY 66 71.2 65 17 15 5 20 68 6 4 43 0 9 1.88

1998 NYY 54 61.1 48 13 13 3 17 36 3 0 36 0 5 1.91

1999 NYY 66 69.0 43 15 14 2 18 52 4 3 45 0 4 1.83

2000 NYY 66 75.2 58 26 24 4 25 58 7 4 36 0 5 2.86

2001 NYY 71 80.2 61 24 21 5 12 83 4 6 50 0 7 2.34

2002 NYY 45 46.0 35 16 14 3 11 41 1 4 28 2 4 2.74

2003 NYY 64 70.2 61 15 13 3 10 63 5 2 40 0 6 1.66

2004 NYY 65 69.2 58 14 14 3 17 58 4 1 46 0 3 1.81

[Guest Staravenger]

Let's see in a fantasy way...

 

Yankees lead 5-3.

 

Rivera loads bases with 1 out.

 

::Batter A:: drives the ball into the corner of left field. 2 runs score easily, a third possibly.

 

6-3, game over, yankees lose.

 

A closers job is to get it done, not put people on base, then hope he can get out of his own mess.

 

Edit: Hmm... I thought he had better ERA's in his career than 2.xx's.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

On the subject of Rivera. Sometimes ERA can be misleading. We can use component ERA which estimates ERA based on peripherals. It is not a replacement for ERA, just a different look. Rivera's is 2.42, down from 2.29 last season. He is pitching worse than he was a year ago.

 

But its all really quite silly. Rivera has allowed more baserunners this season. How many? About four. He is still very, very good.

[mike546 0]

The thing is, he's better in clutch situations. Yes he blew one game against the Sox, but he always gets the job done. One game comes to me from earlier this year. Yankees lead 5-4 against Okland in Okland in the 9th. Rivera gives up a walk and a hit to start the inning, with Chavez and Dye coming up. He struck them both out. Then theirs the 2nd game of the series where they swept the Sox. Yankees take a 2 run lead in the 9th, and Rivera strikes out the side on like 11 pitches.

 

I don't care if he gives up more hits, or more walks and less strikeouts. He gets the job done, and thats why hes still the best in the biz.

[Guest Staravenger]

Please don't reffer to a ball player like that. Best in the majors or league, not biz. Sounds like a fucking wrestling term.

[Mik 0]

Hey, Al. Where does Carl Pavano rank in Win Shares, and what do you think his realistic chance is at the Cy Young award?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Pavano ranks 5th in Win Shares, and 6th in pitching Win Shares. The talking heads have begun to notice, so he does have a shot. His winning it will depend on whether the Marlins win the wild card. If they miss the playoffs, he has no shot.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Here are the rankings updated as of September 16th....

 

AL MVP

1. Gary Sheffield, NYY

2. Alex Rodriguez, NYY

3. Hideki Matsui, NYY

4. Johan Santana, Min

5. Manny Ramirez, Bos

6. Carlos Guillen, Det

7. Vladimir Guerrero, Ana

8. Miguel Tejada, Bal

9. Ichiro Suzuki, Sea

10. Hank Blalock, Tex

 

The surplus of Yankees is due to their outperforming their pythagorean record. They have won more games than you'd expect based on their runs scored and allowed. Since Win Shares works backwards from wins, it gives credit for more wins. Nice to see Johan Santana make the cut, and hopefully voters will list him on their ballots.

 

AL Cy Young

1. Johan Santana, Min

2. Curt Schilling, Bos

3. Brad Radke, Min

 

AL Rookie of the Year

1. Bobby Crosby, Oak

2. Shingo Takatsu, CWS

3. Zach Greinke, KC

 

AL Gold Glove

C Damian Miller

1B Mark Teixeira

2B Orlando Hudson

SS Christian Guzman

3B Alex Rodriguez

OF Johnny Damon

OF Mark Kotsay

OF Torii Hunter

 

How many people think Vizquel will win based on his offense?

 

NL MVP

1. Barry Bonds, SF

2. Scott Rolen, StL

3. Jim Edmonds, StL

4. Albert Pujols, StL

5. Bobby Abreu, Phi

6. Mark Loretta, SD

7. J.D. Drew, Atl

8. Adrian Beltre, LA

9. Adam Dunn, Cin

10. Sean Casey, Cin

 

NL Cy Young

1. Randy Johnson, Ari

2. Ben Sheets, Mil

3. Carl Pavano, Flo

 

NL Rookie of the Year

1. Khalil Greene, SD

2. Jason Bay, Pit

3. Kazuo Matsui, NYM

 

NL Gold Glove

C Brian Schneider, Mon

1B Todd Helton, Col

2B Mark Loretta, SD

SS Jack Wilson, Pit

3B Scott Rolen, StL/Adrian Beltre, LA

OF Andruw Jones, Atl

OF Jim Edmonds, StL

OF Corey Patterson, ChC

 

Carlos Beltran has earned just as many fielding shares as Patterson, but he split them between two leagues. In addition, if he played in one league all season, he'd rank 2nd in the AL overall, and 10th overall in the NL.

[mike546 0]

Where does Mariano rank for MVP?