USA Today: USA Today/CNN/Gallup polls = not biased

[Rob E Dangerously]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselect...p-defense_x.htm

 

This year's USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup polling on the presidential race is coming under attack from liberal critics who say Gallup's methods produce results that are biased in favor of President Bush.

Gallup says it stands by its work, which Tuesday showed Bush ahead of Sen. John Kerry by eight percentage points among likely voters — if the election were held "today." That was down from a 13-point lead for Bush two weeks earlier. Gallup's recent polls have consistently shown Bush further ahead than he is in other surveys.

 

USA TODAY said Tuesday it remains confident in Gallup.

 

The firm, said USA TODAY Polling Editor Jim Norman, "has been doing USA TODAY's political polling since 1988. ... I'm impressed by the constant testing and retesting they do of their methodology to make sure they get it right."

 

CNN spokesmen were unavailable for comment

 

and Gallup is accurate.. if you believe that 43% of the voters will be Republicans.

 

Pew thinks otherwise: http://people-press.org/commentary/display...3?AnalysisID=95

 

The Democratic Party has achieved a small gain in party affiliation and holds a 33%-29% edge over the GOP in Pew surveys conducted in 2004. This represents a modest shift from the two year period following the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, when the Republican Party had drawn virtually even with the Democrats.

 

Pew Party ID: 33-29-38 (DRI)

Gallup samples: 34-39-27 (DRI)

 

Basically.. you have Gallup out, over-sampling the GOP, undersampling Independents.. and it seems that Bush does his best in Gallup polls.

 

Of course, due to the MoveOn people's lack of real media experience, this will be ignored and the stuff about George Gallup's religion will be mentioned. That's a stupid point and pretty much irrelevant.

 

If Gallup cares to produce evidence to back up the sampling of an unrealistic number of Republicans, they should do it. If they won't, then you might as well rely on an online poll.

[Guest MikeSC]

As a rule, anything moveon.org says is total and utter bullshit.

-=Mike

...Blaming Gallup because Kerry is tanking is sad...

[Guest CronoT]

Rob, any Bush mocking/un-spinning is like crack cocaine to Mike. He can't resist logging in and sniffing it all up.

 

Also, I've noticed that USA Today always seems to be a little more likely to jump on any mistakes or incidents Kerry does, while mostly ignoring Bush's constant idiocies.

[Rob E Dangerously]

As a rule, anything moveon.org says is total and utter bullshit.

I guess you'll get out of bed and look West for the rising sun.

 

I guess Republicans make up 39% of America too.

 

...Blaming Gallup because Kerry is tanking is sad...

 

I'm pretty sure you've been declaring Kerry dead for the last month or so.

 

How long can one tank?

Can one tank while moving up in polls?

 

Can one overcome a 13 point Gallup deficit with less than 3 weeks left? ( http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/storie...7/cnntime.poll/ )

 

Note to self: do poll, sample 80% Republicans, get it posted.. wait for MikeSC to declare that Kerry is 'tanking'

 

"He's melting down. When he loses, you'll point to this also." - Mike, 8/21

 

"He's losing support quickly and it's only getting uglier. His campaign is progeressively looking less and less serious." - Mike, 9/9

 

"Somebody linked to intentionally planting stories to turn an election they're losing BADLY is worse than somebody covering up a 3rd rate burglary." - Mike, 9/21

 

"Blaming Gallup because Kerry is tanking is sad" - Mike, 9/29

 

Myrtle Beach Mike.. bring you the news on the meltdown of John Kerry.. now in day 38!

[kkktookmybabyaway]

Then don't read the fucking polls -- Jesus Christ on a cracker.

 

The only poll that matters is the one in November...

[Guest INXS]

I would say that all aspects of the media are biased in one direction or another. It's up to us as individuals to try and see through any bias.

[kkktookmybabyaway]

You know, that is probably one of the brighter things you've said at this place. Here's a cookie.

 

Rob, any Bush mocking/un-spinning is like crack cocaine to Mike. He can't resist logging in and sniffing it all up.

 

I never understood this logic -- so Mike should just be silent?

 

Not allowing dissenting voices to be heard, just who do you think you are -- John Kerry?...

[Guest MikeSC]

Rob, any Bush mocking/un-spinning is like crack cocaine to Mike. He can't resist logging in and sniffing it all up.

 

Also, I've noticed that USA Today always seems to be a little more likely to jump on any mistakes or incidents Kerry does, while mostly ignoring Bush's constant idiocies.

And apparently anything I say is crack cocaine for you.

-=Mike

[Special K]

If people stop saying anything Mike disagrees with, it's not going to be a very edifying board.

[Red Baron]

I'd just like to know where do these (or any political polls from any site)polls get their numbers and balance them towards society.

 

I only care about one poll and that is the poll

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America]

It's too bad that they DO have a great influence on people, though.

 

The media takes polls and interprets the "trends of the race", and come election time, if their guy isn't doing so hot in the "polls" (regardless if they're legitimate and accurate or not), they're less likely to come out to the polls.

 

So, polls ARE important, albiet for different reasons than you might think.

[NoCalMike]

It's too bad that they DO have a great influence on people, though.

 

The media takes polls and interprets the "trends of the race", and come election time, if their guy isn't doing so hot in the "polls" (regardless if they're legitimate and accurate or not), they're less likely to come out to the polls.

 

So, polls ARE important, albiet for different reasons than you might think.

Correct. They unfortunately, can be used as an wasy manipulation tool.

[Special K]

I think it WOULD actually be edifying to hear statistics about people polled in various polls. Even more so, to learn what demographic actually responds to polls. Of course it would be impossible to really so that, having worked as a pollster myself (worst job in my life)

 

'OK, this guy didn't want to bothered. Male. White. Um, 27? Looks sorta poor. Could be making a fashion statement.'

[AndrewTS]

Rob, any Bush mocking/un-spinning is like crack cocaine to Mike. He can't resist logging in and sniffing it all up.

 

Also, I've noticed that USA Today always seems to be a little more likely to jump on any mistakes or incidents Kerry does, while mostly ignoring Bush's constant idiocies.

And apparently anything I say is crack cocaine for you.

-=Mike

Not really CronoT as much as...say..GreatOne.

 

I think Rob's summary of Mike's statements speak for themselves. While I agree that Kerry's not proving to be a dynamic candidate that middlers can get behind, I do think that the "anybody but Bush" mentality isn't winning a whole lot of middlers/undecideds.

 

There really isn't any such thing as an unbiased poll. You want to minimize bias for accurate results, but finding an unbiased standard for polling is very difficult. Special K seems to agree. Although if the margin of error is that large--there's a problem with the poll.

 

Plus, as I've mentioned before, the number of folks registered to a certain party doesn't directly reflect who those voters will be casting their votes for on election day. Maybe they'll be splitting their ticket. Maybe they registered as their current party to vote in their state primary.

[Guest GreatOne]

Not really CronoT as much as...say..GreatOne.

Good to see I'm still keeping up my profile.......................

[kkktookmybabyaway]

If their guy isn't doing so hot in the "polls" (regardless if they're legitimate and accurate or not), they're less likely to come out to the polls.

Well then fuck them.

 

If you're not going to vote for your guy just because he's behind in the polls, then you don't deserve to the right to vote.

 

That's just as pathetic as those Florida GOP voters in the Panhandle who claimed that since the state was called early for Gore they just drove home...

[Rob E Dangerously]

That's just as pathetic as those Florida GOP voters in the Panhandle who claimed that since the state was called early for Gore they just drove home...

 

yeah.. all 40,000 of them with 9 minutes left.

[kkktookmybabyaway]

Traffic must have been a bitch...

[Kahran Ramsus]

Traffic must have been a bitch...

When isn't it in Florida?

[cabbageboy]

I don't know what is going on with the Gallup poll, but I do know that it's the most scandalously underreported issue of this whole campaign.

 

This poll is a fraud, a flat out fraud. Take a closer look at that poll. Note that Bush is now ahead by 8% in this bogus poll, but that they're using 5% more Republicans. Thus, it's a very deliberate oversampling designed to make Kerry look bad, and give the illusion that he's tanking, when in fact he's really doing ok. In an even poll Bush would have a 3 pt. lead, that's taking away the crazed oversampling of Republicans. However, take into consideration that the past two elections have had Democrats outnumbering Republicans by 4-5%. With that in mind it's entirely possible that Kerry in reality is WINNING right now. That's more likely than him being down 8%.

 

Take a look at much more legitimate polls like Rasmussen or Zogby, who use 39 Dem, 35 Rep, 26 Ind. Those polls look little like Gallup's.

 

Interesting someone mentioned FL. In this goofy Gallup poll they had Bush ahead by an absurd 9%. Where exactly is this 9% going to come from? Let's see, they oversampled so the lead is automatically cut to 4%. I'm not entirely sure of what FL's vote distribution was in 2000, but using the national avg. of 2000 the FL race is basically tied. Which would be comparable to Rasmussen and Zogby, who have the FL race deadlocked (which it is).

[CheesalaIsGood]

Rob, any Bush mocking/un-spinning is like crack cocaine to Mike. He can't resist logging in and sniffing it all up.

 

Also, I've noticed that USA Today always seems to be a little more likely to jump on any mistakes or incidents Kerry does, while mostly ignoring Bush's constant idiocies.

And apparently anything I say is crack cocaine for you.

-=Mike

Haha! I know you are but what am I? Weak dude, weak.

[Guest GreatOne]

Weak dude, weak.

As long as you're admitting it now..................

 

I don't know what is going on with the Gallup poll, but I do know that it's the most scandalously underreported issue of this whole campaign.

 

'My guy isn't ahead dammit! I know, I'll cry conspiracy, in case three people are paying attention to me!!!!!!!!!!'

 

I'm really only concerned with the final results of Nov. 2, you should be too.

[Guest MikeSC]

I don't know what is going on with the Gallup poll, but I do know that it's the most scandalously underreported issue of this whole campaign.

Hyperbolize much?

This poll is a fraud, a flat out fraud.

Yup. Tool of the evil Republicans.

Take a closer look at that poll.  Note that Bush is now ahead by 8% in this bogus poll, but that they're using 5% more Republicans.  Thus, it's a very deliberate oversampling designed to make Kerry look bad, and give the illusion that he's tanking, when in fact he's really doing ok.

Hold on to the pipe dream, if you desire.

In an even poll Bush would have a 3 pt. lead, that's taking away the crazed oversampling of Republicans.  However, take into consideration that the past two elections have had Democrats outnumbering Republicans by 4-5%.  With that in mind it's entirely possible that Kerry in reality is WINNING right now.  That's more likely than him being down 8%.

BWA HA HA HA! Of course it is. *pats head*

Interesting someone mentioned FL.  In this goofy Gallup poll they had Bush ahead by an absurd 9%.  Where exactly is this 9% going to come from?  Let's see, they oversampled so the lead is automatically cut to 4%.  I'm not entirely sure of what FL's vote distribution was in 2000, but using the national avg. of 2000 the FL race is basically tied.  Which would be comparable to Rasmussen and Zogby, who have the FL race deadlocked (which it is).

Let me guess --- Quinnipiac is ALSO a tool of the Republicans, right?

 

They have Bush by 8 in FL.

 

Funny that NOBODY has FL as a tie presently.

-=Mike

[kkktookmybabyaway]

Now are these polls sampling dead people, or those that aren't allowed to vote?

 

With ACORN(y) and ACT doing the whole voter-fraud thing, I think these people should be represented in these polls, too...

[Rob E Dangerously]

Let me guess --- Quinnipiac is ALSO a tool of the Republicans, right?

 

They have Bush by 8 in FL.

on checking.. it's bullshit

 

President George W. Bush leads Democratic challenger John Kerry 49 - 41 percent, with 5 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, among Florida voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

 

It fails the Nader test.

 

Head-to-head, it's 48-43 Bush

 

I guess polls taken with parts of the state still recovering from hurricanes are accurate.