Evaluating Free Agent Starters

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

1. Pedro Martinez

2. Matt Clement

3. Odalis Perez

4. Brad Radke

5. Carl Pavano

6. Orlando Hernandez

7. Russ Ortiz

8. David Wells

9. Paul Byrd

10. Jaret Wright

11. Jon Lieber

12. Derek Lowe

13. Kevin Millwood

14. Ron Villone

15. Matt Morris

16. Kris Benson

17. Paul Wilson

18. Eric Milton

19. Cory Lidle

20. Elmer Dessens

 

Other free agent pitchers had better years than Pedro Martinez, but no pitcher holds his kind of track racord. His defense independant statistics were still excellent, and that is even before you remember that he pitches in a good park for hitters. No pitcher in this market has the pure stuff to dominate hitters like Martinez.

 

Matt Clement suffers from bouts of inconsistancy, but he has excellent stuff. His last below average ERA was in 2001. The most similar pitcher to Clement at 29 was Jason Schmidt.

 

Odalis Perez struggled in the postseason, but posted excellent numbers in the regular season. Perez throws Wells/Lieber type control, but is much younger. His poor W/L record makes him a potential bargain.

 

Brad Radke experienced one of the best years of his career. Radke is a ten year vet with a career 114 ERA+, so you know what to expect from him. No active pitcher walks less batters. A great #2 option.

 

Carl Pavano put it all together for the Florida Marlins. The major concern is whether this season was a career season or not. Still, the lack of great pitchers gives him an advantage in this market.

 

Orlando Hernandez surprised baseball with a comeback season. No one knows how old he really is. Still, he was great before he missed last season, and his peripherals were excellent (nearly a strikeout per inning).

 

Russ Ortiz walks alot of hitters, but gives you consistancy. His ERA+ the last three seasons has averaged 106. His peripherals are a problem, but he keeps the ball in the park.

 

David Wells has not posted a below average ERA since 1996. Wells' issue is his lingering back trouble, which pops up from time to time. Still, Wells has reached 30 starts the last three seasons. He's a great control pitcher, and could be excellent with the proper defense behind him.

 

Paul Byrd has a history of success, and arm difficulties. He has only pitched 200 innings once in his career. Byrd is homer-prone, so he needs a deep ballpark to pitch at full potential.

 

Jaret Wright broke out in a big way this season. His walk rate is a problem, but just 11 home runs in 186.3 IP, which is excellent. Wright definately has a good shot at keeping this up, if he can avoid the injury bug.

[Guest Anglesault]

One note on the Duque thing, if he finished with almost a K per inning, they really went down over the course of the half season. At one point, he had some absurd ratio.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

At one point, he had 33 Ks in 24 IP, after an August 1st start where he struck out nine batters. His K rate was still 8 per 9 innings in September, so he didn't fall off. Just a leveling effect.

[Brett Favre 0]

Speaking of El Duque, he won the Comeback Player of the Year Award. Congrats.

 

I'd like to see Brad Radke with the Yanks, as a second or third option as far as starters go in free agency/trade.

[The Czech Republic 0]

Orlando Hernandez surprised baseball with a comeback season. No one knows how old he really is.

I heard he was an elderly and frail Jewish woman but keeps it a secret

[Bored 0]

Baseball-Reference.com has Hernandez listed as turning 39 on October 11th. MLB.com has him four years younger.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

The Cardinals declined Woody Williams' option, making him a free agent. I'd slide Williams in at #12, between Lieber and Lowe. Williams has been on a slow slide over the last two years, but he could still pitch effectively for another year or two.

[therealworldschampion 0]

I would love for the Phillies to get Clement.

[Precious Roy 0]

Solid crop of starters, no doubt.

 

My wishlist for the Bombers:

 

Matt Clement (this guy should be the #1 target, not Beltran...)

Odalis Perez (I love his stuff, had some bad luck this season, rarely pitched with the lead. I hope he's on Steinbrenner's radar and not Carl Milano)

Pedro (Boston would be crazy to let him walk, and he'd be crazy to leave, but you never know.....)

El Duque

Lieber

David Wells (we never should have let him walk, pitches great in big spots)

 

I'm not a Russ Ortiz fan, though with the Yankees offense he's a reasonable option as he usually keeps things close. I've always liked Matt Morris' style, great curve, but he seems to have slowed down a lot over the last couple seasons. Maybe he's ready to rebound, I say do it if you can get him on the cheap. Derek Lowe is probably more likely to leave Boston than Pedro, and he played his way into a nice deal in the playoffs, but he's too inconsistent for my tastes, and easily ratttled. I don't like the idea of him playing in front of the NY boo birds.

[KingPK 0]

According to the Boston Herald today, the Sox offered Pedro a two-year contract worth $27.5M, with a $13M option for 2007, which is a pretty fair deal, IMO. That's $13.75M a year, which is actually a bit more than I'd give him, but at least they aren't giving him Schilling money. I just don't think he's worth $15-17M/yr with the question marks he has (he's only getting older, and he's not a big guy like a Nolan Ryan that can pitch effectively into his late 30's).

[Precious Roy 0]

I'd take that if I were Pedro. Defending the title in Boston should be more important than earning 14 mil in 2007 when he's on Anaheim's IR.

[geniusMoment 0]

I would take Milton, Wilson, Benson and Morris over Ron Villone, but other than that I agree with the list.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Villone's selection came from looking at Adjusted ERAs over the last three years. He's been above average the last two years, while the others were below average. What it comes down to is that those four all have their downsides. Kris Benson has not been the same pitcher since the arm injury, Paul Wilson is 8% below average, and Morris and Milton had horrendous home run rates. But in reality, you could make a case for any of the four over Villone. It's not an exact science.