Conference Championship Prediction Thread

[iggymcfly 0]

What people don't get is that Vick's been playing not to get injured all year with the playoffs pretty secure, and the defense playing awesome.

 

Vick can do this 100 yards on the ground thing pretty much whenever he wants, but if he tried it every week, he'd only have about a 50/50 chance of making it through the season. Now that the playoffs are here, we'll see a few controlled passes, and the rest of the time Vick's going to be running all over the field.

 

I'm not saying it's going to be enough to beat the Pats or anything, but it's not really the same offense that got shut down by Arizona and Tampa.

[KingPK 0]

I'm not making a pick yet, but I thought I'd point out this stat:

 

When facing a QB the second time in the same season, Belichick and the Pats are 13-0.

 

Thirteen wins, zero losses.

 

If the Pats can contain Bettis/Staley, and get some points on the board early, forcing Ben to throw to get them back in the game, then it will be a LONG day at Heinz for the home team if history shows me anything.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I'm not making a pick yet, but I thought I'd point out this stat:

 

When facing a QB the second time in the same season, Belichick and the Pats are 13-0.

 

Thirteen wins, zero losses.

 

If the Pats can contain Bettis/Staley, and get some points on the board early, forcing Ben to throw to get them back in the game, then it will be a LONG day at Heinz for the home team if history shows me anything.

My first instinct is that of course, it would almost have to be against teams from their own division, since they play the Jets, Bills and Dolphins three times a year. Given that they've lost only four games over the previous two seasons, I can't see that stat having any added significance.

 

Looking over game logs, Belicheck's Patroits lost their second meeting to Indianapolis, Miami, and the New York Jets in their initial 2000 season. They lost their second game against the New York Jets in 2002. Maybe all these teams changed quarterbacks mid-season, but now you've got a statistic with so many qualifiers to work it out to a nice round figure that it becomes suspicious in itself.

[KingPK 0]

Ok, so that's only four games out of the 13, but I see what you're saying here. I can't remember if it was 13-0 after LOSING to a QB or what.

[Guest Failed Mascot]

13-0 after seeing a QB for the second time in the same season. It was on FSN New England Sports Tonight.

[smh810 0]

In Super Bowl Thirty Ni... I mean the AFC Championship Game I'm gonna go with Pittsburgh. Dont get me wrong I have all the respect in the world for the Pats but I think much like the Pats match up well with the Colts (mainly due to Belichick's schemeing) Pittsburgh matches up well against the Pats. With all the talk about Roethlisberger I dont think he's gonna be much of a factor at all in the Championship Game. I do think the Pittsburgh running attack will be huge. The Patriots lack of a runstuffer (ie, Ted Washington) more than anything else is gonna be the difference in the game. Granted they stopped the Colts rushing attack but Indy's running plays are mostly stretch plays to the outside and their linebackers are quick enough to get to the football. Pitssburgh's running attack is all north-south. The Pats didnt stop it the first time and I dont see that changing now.

 

As far as Corey Dillon goes he being in the line-up will certainly help and they will run the ball more than 6 times. However, I dont think he'll gain a lot of yards against that defense. Brady will do a good job as always but he wont be on the field long enough to make a difference. Steelers 21 Patriots 13

 

The NFC Championship Game has the potential to be a rout of epic proportions. The Eagles even without TO are simply a better team in all facets of the game than the Falcons are. Atlanta's 327 yards rushing against the Rams was an optical illusion against a clueless defense. Against the Philly Rush D, they'll be lucky to hit 90 and that includes Michael Vick. The defense will force Vick into bad decisions and turnovers and I could easily forsee a defensive TD or two. On the flip side, Atlanta's defense is okay but far from spectacular and can be penetrated. Look for Brian Westbrook to have 150 all-purpose yards in the game. All in all forget the last three years I don't see a way for the Falcons to emerge on top. Eagles 41 Falcons 10

[nl5xsk1 0]

Even if he plays well, I think New England will keep a ton of guys in the box and make the Steelers beat them with the rookie's arm. I don't care how many games in a row he's won, you have to give the edge to the Pats if it comes down to a rookie QB.

 

Here's my problem with this theory. The Patriots knew they had a rookie quarterback going in the first game and Roethlisberger proceeded to go 18/24 for 196 yards and two touches. The Pats never sacked him, never forced a fumble, never made a pick. They had game footage from his bad games earlier in the year for that game. What makes you think they're going to poof up a magic plan now?

 

Yes, I do think that they will "poof up a magic plan now": run the ball, protect the QB, and play better in the secondary.

 

a) run the ball: Hand the ball to their premier running back, the one that gained more than 1600 yards in 15 games but missed the game in October, and hope to gain more than the .8 yards-per-carry that they got in that first game.

b) protect the QB: Playing this game with both starting offensive tackles (both missed the first Pittsburgh game) should help slow down the Pittsburgh pass rush. Less pass rush == less bad passes, and less bad passes == less turnovers.

c) better play in the secondary: Gay was playing for the first time all year, and both Moreland & Brown were still getting their feet wet. All of the above have 2+ months more experience this week. While they're not the best DBs in the world, they're certainly better now than they were on Halloween.

 

 

Unrelated response:

Baseball has big home field advantage because a park can be unique enough to mess with a road team, basketball seems to have the home team get a lot of calls their way. Hockey's home ice advantage has seemed pretty negligible.

In terms of the ice surface itself, yes, but in terms of the rules, no. The home team gets to make the last line change, so can always match up their best defensive pairing against the other teams best forwards, or send out their skilled players versus the other teams 4th liners.

[therealworldschampion 0]

The NFC Championship Game has the potential to be a rout of epic proportions. The Eagles even without TO are simply a better team in all facets of the game than the Falcons are. Atlanta's 327 yards rushing against the Rams was an optical illusion against a clueless defense. Against the Philly Rush D, they'll be lucky to hit 90 and that includes Michael Vick. The defense will force Vick into bad decisions and turnovers and I could easily forsee a defensive TD or two. On the flip side, Atlanta's defense is okay but far from spectacular and can be penetrated. Look for Brian Westbrook to have 150 all-purpose yards in the game. All in all forget the last three years I don't see a way for the Falcons to emerge on top. Eagles 41 Falcons 10

 

I know you're a Bucs fan so I'll ask you a question about defense. Do you think we'll see Jim Johnson the Eagles' defensive coordinator copy a lot of what the Bucs did against Vick back in December when they shut out Atlanta? Simeon Rice has done extremely well against Vick in the past and Jevon Kearse is very similar to Rice, so I think Johnson will use Kearse in a lot of different positions against Vick.

[the pinjockey 0]

While Kearse may equal Rice, Trotter does not equal Brooks, which will be a sizeable difference. Even with how great Trotter has been playing, he does not have the speed Brooks does. They will have to scheme more than the Bucs.

[Ripper 0]

The NFC Championship Game has the potential to be a rout of epic proportions. The Eagles even without TO are simply a better team in all facets of the game than the Falcons are. Atlanta's 327 yards rushing against the Rams was an optical illusion against a clueless defense. Against the Philly Rush D, they'll be lucky to hit 90 and that includes Michael Vick. The defense will force Vick into bad decisions and turnovers and I could easily forsee a defensive TD or two. On the flip side, Atlanta's defense is okay but far from spectacular and can be penetrated. Look for Brian Westbrook to have 150 all-purpose yards in the game. All in all forget the last three years I don't see a way for the Falcons to emerge on top. Eagles 41 Falcons 10

 

I know you're a Bucs fan so I'll ask you a question about defense. Do you think we'll see Jim Johnson the Eagles' defensive coordinator copy a lot of what the Bucs did against Vick back in December when they shut out Atlanta? Simeon Rice has done extremely well against Vick in the past and Jevon Kearse is very similar to Rice, so I think Johnson will use Kearse in a lot of different positions against Vick.

Simion Rice is not the reason the Bucs shut down Vick(THAT ONE GAME).

 

 

That FREAK of nature Derrick Brooks is the reason that Vick always has trouble against the Bucs. That dude has got to be the fastest LBs from sideline to sideline in the NFL and one of the few guys that you can assign to spy vick and it be 100% effective.

 

Simion Rice gets the numbers, but if you watch the games, its because Vick can't get out of the pocket because Derrick brooks is always right there to close up any gaps. he might not get the tackle, but he makes the Bucs defensive scheme work.

 

Jeremiah Trotter is the closest thing the Eagles have to that, and he is just not in the same league as Derrick Brooks in terms of speed and agility. He is one powerful son of a bitch that will blow up the line for ya, but he just can't do the things that Brooks does.

 

If copying the Bucs defensive scheme is all it takes to stop Michael Vick, then we are basically saying there are a bunch of fucking idiots in running defenses for most of the other teams in the league. You have to have the personel to pull it off. The eagles have a great D, but I don't think they can shut down Vick and the Falcons running game the way that the Bucs can.

[the pinjockey 0]

What I see happening is the Jim Johnson having either Dawkins (more likely as he is the smartest defender and will see what is happening quicker) or Michael Lewis in the box a majority of the time and sort of bracket Vick with the safety and a LB. That should corral Vick somewhat and if you can reign him in a little bit they will be forced to go to the air more and that is certainly where you need him. For all of the talk about stopping the run, it is going to be big on the Eagles secondary to play well and allow the safety to be moved closer to the line.

[Ripper 0]

What I see happening is the Jim Johnson having either Dawkins (more likely as he is the smartest defender and will see what is happening quicker) or Michael Lewis in the box a majority of the time and sort of bracket Vick with the safety and a LB. That should corral Vick somewhat and if you can reign him in a little bit they will be forced to go to the air more and that is certainly where you need him. For all of the talk about stopping the run, it is going to be big on the Eagles secondary to play well and allow the safety to be moved closer to the line.

Thats that dumb shit that the Rams did and gave up so many big plays. There was no support outside of the initial contact, so if a player got past the firt 5 yards, it was going for 15-20 yards. Plus, they NEED to match Dawkins up on Crumpler. you take him out, there goes the passing game. I think you are going to see that matchup most of the game.

 

Not saying that the Eagles are as inept as St. Louis, but that is a dangerous game plan that will allow big plays, and basically, that is the Atlanta offense. they get big plays and then LONG bouts of nothingness. I think they CAN stop the falcons with their regular defensive sets, they just need to make sure that Kearse doesn't over pursue and get too far up field allowing him to just cut underneath. I think it was the 49ers in the opening game that ran a wonderful defensive scheme that shut down Vick, shut down the run, and still left no passing lanes. They didn't win, because, well...they were the 49ers, but their defensive scheme is very doable with most other teams.

 

Just to make it clear, I don't THINK the Falcons are going to win, but I want them to. i just don't think it is going to be a beat down, as I believe that Alantas VERY underrated defense will show their worth.

[the pinjockey 0]

I don't think I can recall the Eagles using a safety on a TE all year, so I doubt it will start now.

 

And I really don't want to be messing with Kearse, I want to keep him in his usual game plan as there will be no pass rush without him. My thinking is that you let Kearse do his thing and either the LB or S can fill the gap, if one is left by him. If Kearse's typical style gets messed with I worry that Vick will have forever and a day to sit back there and either a receiver or a running lane will eventually open up.

[Stephen Joseph 0]

The Falcons will hardly be beaten down. Watching them humilate the Rams was a sight indeed. Hell, even Price actually played like a #1 reciever (finally). I think many are blind to the actual goodness of the Falcon's defense, which went to rest mode in the last few games of the regular season (and hence, why their rating went down). These guys are nothing to be sneezed at.

 

Secondly, this whole outdoor nonsense. Fellas, ask Brett Farve about the Falcons playing outdoors. There's alot of those guys left on this time from that fun time.

 

With Terrell being out, that gives Atlanta's defense a chance to keep the score below 20. Which then means Vick and Co. have the chance. Vick is not the best quarterback in the league, but he is the most entertaining. The weather is the biggest factor, large winds will keep the ball down.

 

This game will be close, but like Payton last weekend, the Eagles will see ghosts. And the under-rated Falcons keep going in a nailbiter.

 

In the other game (oh, and by the way, calling any other game but the actual superbowl the real superbowl is insulting to any team that makes it there. The superbowl is the superbowl, so don't make yourself feel better by calling some other game more important.

 

Rant aside, we saw a nervous Roth make a ton of mistakes last week, and only because the Jet's kicker choked TWICE did they survive. Somehow I just can't see that happening to such an Experienced New England team. The glass slipper breaks gentleman, and while Bettis and the gang have had quite a run, the story ends up north.

[Damaramu 0]

I just don't understand all this "The eagles will see ghosts!" bullshit. They are a confident enough team this year that they are not going to worry about the past 3 years. The entire team is better and even without TO they are still better than they were the previous 3 years.

McNabb isn't going to throw one pick and go "OH MY GOD IT'S HAPPENING AGAIN!!!!" and just shut down like everyone seems to be thinking he is.

[Ripper 0]

I just don't understand all this "The eagles will see ghosts!" bullshit. They are a confident enough team this year that they are not going to worry about the past 3 years. The entire team is better and even without TO they are still better than they were the previous 3 years.

McNabb isn't going to throw one pick and go "OH MY GOD IT'S HAPPENING AGAIN!!!!" and just shut down like everyone seems to be thinking he is.

Now THIS I don't get. HOW in the living hell is this team better than all of the team that went there before? This is a very good defense, but I dare say that the defensive teams from the last 2 years where better. The offense is basically the same MINUS Duece Staley. And while Westbrook is good, Westbrook+Staley is better. The Eagles might not see ghost, but they will definately see a very good team line up across from them...it will be one hell of a game.

 

And I remember everyone calling the Western Conference Finals the Nba Finals....we know how that worked out, huh?

[nl5xsk1 0]

Yeah, Damaramu, you should have quit when you were ahead ...

 

I just don't understand all this "The eagles will see ghosts!" bullshit. They are a confident enough team this year that they are not going to worry about the past 3 years.

... that's sensible.

The entire team is better and even without TO they are still better than they were the previous 3 years.

... that's not.

 

This year's Eagles team with TO is better ... without him, they're lucky to be considered as good, and IMHO, they're not nearly as good.

 

I do, though, really agree with you for calling bullshit on the "they'll see ghosts!" ... people got to be high if they think the Colts lost last weekend because they saw ghosts, or if it was anything besides getting outplayed on the field and outcoached off of it. The Colts lost because they didn't deserve to win that game. Period.

[therealworldschampion 0]

Now THIS I don't get. HOW in the living hell is this team better than all of the team that went there before? This is a very good defense, but I dare say that the defensive teams from the last 2 years where better. The offense is basically the same MINUS Duece Staley. And while Westbrook is good, Westbrook+Staley is better. The Eagles might not see ghost, but they will definately see a very good team line up across from them...it will be one hell of a game.

 

There is no way that last year's defense was better than this year's defense. The run defense is much improved, and dare I say the pass defense is better with Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown rather than the old(Troy Vincent) and injured(Bobby "The Blanket" Taylor) CBs and a much better pass rush with Kearse as a DE along with Trotter being much better than Simoneau at MLB.

[2GOLD 0]

If they start seeing ghosts, just call Bill Murray and Harold Ramis to take care of things.

 

Also, seeing ghosts on your own field? I never buy that....unless it's Wrigley and the players are being haunted by a goat.

[the pinjockey 0]

This Eagles team is better than the one in the NFC title game last year. The receivers are better (anything is an upgrade over Thrash), the line is better (Tra Thomas sucked a fat one last year, this year he has returned to form), last year Westbrook did not play in the playoffs (and he is certainly an upgrade over Staley, and the defense is much better being completely healthy and better against the run with Trotter back.

[2GOLD 0]

Just curious, what is the over/under on number of days before the Eagles "fans" call for the firing of Andy Reid if the Eagles lose in the NFC championship game again?

 

I think they'll give him the "we didn't have TO" argument and let him have till next year.

[therealworldschampion 0]

Anyone calling for Reid's firing is a complete idiot, I mean do they REMEMBER Marion Campbell or Richie Kotite?

[C Dubya 04 0]

As someone who has watched every second of Eagle play for the last 4 years (well much longer than that, but those are the relevant ones to this discussion), I would say this team is far better than any of the others. Even without TO, the receivers are starting to show signs. The O Line is playing incredibly, Westbrook is 100% healthy (and one hell of a weapon) and the defense is as stong as it's been since the Buddy days. With the D line in the best shape it's been for quite some time and Trotter playing inspired football.

 

I think that the Eagles will handle Vick suprisingly well and walk off with a fairly easy win (similar to this past week).

[Damaramu 0]

Why would you call for Reid's firing? I mean the guy is a good coach. Yeah they lost the title game 3 years in a row but they still go there!

What are they going to do? Fire him for a coach that won't even get them in the playoffs?

That makes as much sense as Nebraska firing Solich.

[smh810 0]

For realworldschampion: I think you'll see Johnson mix up the schemes a lot with a variety of blitzes and certain Buc-like Cover 2 packages. I havent seen the Eagles play too much this year so I'm not a complete expert in how they use their personeel but what they seem to do is line Jevon Kearse all over the place he and whoever lines up on the other side (Burgess, McDougale or other) needs to rush WITHOUT OVERPURSUING and force Vick into the middle, Trotter and the linebackers should handle him from there. If memory serves didn't the Eagles handle Vick well two years ago? (if not I stand corrected)

 

As far as the Falcons defense goes, I'm just not sold on them at all they seem to do well against inferior offenses but when they face a team with punch (Kansas City, I know Coleman was out but he wouldnt have been that big of a difference) they dont do well. They gave up a ton of yards to STL but since the Rams are morons they got away with it. I dont see that being the case against Philly.

[therealworldschampion 0]

If memory serves didn't the Eagles handle Vick well two years ago? (if not I stand corrected)

 

I believe they held him to about 6 rushes for 30 yards. He took some hard hits in that game, the most famous being in my avatar when his TD run was called back due to a holding penalty.

[KingPK 0]

I see (well...hear) that Pittsburgh is producing songs to celebrate the Steelers that make "Tessie" sound like Beethoven's 5th. Kudos.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Why would you call for Reid's firing? I mean the guy is a good coach. Yeah they lost the title game 3 years in a row but they still go there!

What are they going to do? Fire him for a coach that won't even get them in the playoffs?

That makes as much sense as Nebraska firing Solich.

If you followed Philly sports, the reaction would make sense, in its own twisted way. The fans around here are quite impatient for results.

[Damaramu 0]

Why would you call for Reid's firing? I mean the guy is a good coach. Yeah they lost the title game 3 years in a row but they still go there!

What are they going to do? Fire him for a coach that won't even get them in the playoffs?

That makes as much sense as Nebraska firing Solich.

If you followed Philly sports, the reaction would make sense, in its own twisted way. The fans around here are quite impatient for results.

Well I don't live in Philly so I guess it's a little bit foreign to me.

Then again there are fans in Oklahoma crying for Bob Stoops firing right now so I understand the impatient fans bit.

[Ripper 0]

If memory serves didn't the Eagles handle Vick well two years ago? (if not I stand corrected)

 

I believe they held him to about 6 rushes for 30 yards. He took some hard hits in that game, the most famous being in my avatar when his TD run was called back due to a holding penalty.

A horrible holding call that took it from a tie game back to 6-13.

 

 

That game was alot closer than people remember.