Baltimore Orioles

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

The Baltimore Orioles offer a good lineup and bad rotation. I think their lineup is overrated, and their pitching is underrated. Let's start with the offense.

 

The lineup includes Javy Lopez, Melvin Mora and Miguel Tejada. It is a heck of an infield. However, the outfield was absolutely terrible last year. Only Larry Bigbie contributed league average performance. Center field remains a problem, especially since prospect Val Majewski will miss most of the season. Either Luis Matos needs to return to form or the team will need to play Bigbie in center. Jay Gibbons should rebound at least, and Sammy Sosa provides some punch to the group. Rafael Palmeiro is declining as an offensive force, and the club would do well to platoon for him against lefties.

 

The rotation features a solid hurler in Rodrigo Lopez. Sidney Ponson struggled last year, but he is a better pitcher than his 2004 numbers would indicate. He eats innings (and everything else) and is not prone to the home run. The big issue is with Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera had a nice enough rookie season, posting a 12-8 record with a 5.00 ERA. Here is the problem. He walked more batters than he struck out last season. I will give everyone a few moments to look for a pitcher who maintained his success with that kind of mark. The obvious comparison is Damian Moss.

 

This is not some kind of fluke for a young major league pitcher. Cabrera walked 5.6 batters per 9 innings in Single A Delmarva. He walked 8.63 batters per 9 in Rookie ball in 2001. Cabrera's professional track record consists of 60 good innings in the Appalachian League, and 27 solid IP at AA. He never pitched in AAA. I am not convinced Cabrera is for real, and I fully expect an ERA around 6 if Cabrera pitches in the rotation this season. I do think he could make a good reliever someday.

 

Eric Bedard had a fine rookie season and should progress on that. It is possible Bruce Chen has turned a corner. His peripherals have always been excellent, save for a high home run rate. Keep an eye on John Maine, who pitched well in AAA (I watched him personally in August), and could break into the rotation.

 

I don't think the Orioles have a realistic shot at the playoffs, but they are the favorites for third place.

[Styles 0]

Hi, Al!

 

We largely agree actually. The lineup is definitely a force, and I agree is slightly overrated but if everyone hits to their potential, 1-9 it's dangerous.

Brian Roberts, finally having the 2nd base job for himself really brought out the hitter in him last year and he has good speed too. Matos has amazing speed and excellent defense but needs to show he's a major league hitter. He did that in 2003, posting an over .300 average but injuries caused him to fall off last year. Same with Jay Gibbons who is projected to hit 8th in this linup and showed 30 home run/100 RBI power 2 years ago, it's just a matter of injuries clearing up. Larry Bigbie is improving every year and is already getting comparisons to a Paul Oneil type who can hit for average, decent power and steal some bases.

As for the middle of the order, Rafael Palmeiro should do better then last year now that the pressures of playing 1st base will be lifted. He went into a LONG power slump last year until we moved him to DH late in the year and all of a sudden he went on a tear. DH will be his primary position this year so he can just concentrate on hittting and not worry about the wear and tear on his knees.

Hopefully something similar will occur for Javy Lopez, who had a fine season last year, but his power may have suffered from being asked to catch the most games he has in his life. He's asked manager Lee Mazzlli for more rest this year and the working plan is to make Geronimo Gil Rodrigo Lopez's personal catcher, which is a system that worked well for Javy in Atlanta.

Melvin Mora is just one of those late boomers and as long as he can avoid injury should post his same all star caliber numbers of the last 3 seasons.

Miguel Tejada is simply the man, and an RBI machine.

Then there's Sammy Sosa, the new intangible. From coverage of Spring Training, Sosa seems happy, re-energized and has a chip on his shoulder in a good way. He's out to prove he's not washed up and is still an elite player. I'm not saying 1998 numbers, but he's apparently been crushing the ball in ST, so 40+ home runs and 120+ RBIs in this lineup is not out of the question. I look for him to bounce back huge.

 

The pitching, like you said, is still a big question, but I agree is underrated. Since we replaced the incompetent Mark Wiley with guru Ray Miller last June at pitching coach, the O's pitcher's ERA dropped over a full run and from that point on were the 2nd lowest ERA in the AL. From the All Star Break they had the 4th lowest ERA. Overall they ranked 1st in terms of pitching turnaround from that time.

 

Although neither is an "ace" Sidney Ponson and Rodrigo Lopez are both work horses who will keep the team in games. Ray Miller jokes "give us 8 runs and we'll be fine". That's what having so much offense afford you, a little extra room for error in the pitching. Otherwise, I agree Daniel Cabrera needs to control his walks but he's been flawless so far in ST which is an excellent sign and Erik Bedard is the one everyone looks to break out but he needs to prove he can go deeper in to games.

Bruce Chen is an interesting addition. He pitched sparkling at the end of last year when he was called up and has been flawless in ST and bar none the most impressive of the "bubble" candidates, so hopefully this will finally be his breakout year.

 

The most important overlooked point on the Orioles is the BULLPEN. In the first half of last year we were IN many games even though out starting pitching was not good but the albatross known as Mike Dejean would come in and seem to ruin every game for us. He's gone. In his place, dependable vets Steve Kline and Steve Reed (who posts the best ERA in Coor's Field last year!) Not to mention emerging phenom closer BJ Ryan, who was unhittable by lefties and darn tough on righties. Form phenom closer Jorge Julio moves to setup and they are joined by dependable long men John Stephens and Rick Bauer.

 

There's even more pitching depth in camp and likely at AAA. If our starters can just hold it together for 6 innings, and our potent offense scores some runs (which they should) then the bullpen should come in and really do it's job. I truly belive our bullpen is top 5 in all of baseball.

 

With that said, I have no dillusions. This is not a playoff team in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox. Will I still root them on and probably fool myself when they go on a winning streak? Oh, sure. But the reality remains they need to get their first winning season in 7 agonizing years before playoff talk starts. I think this year will be a statement and an improvement and that's a big first step.

 

I look for a winning year, maybe a wildcard tease, and ultimately a 3rd place finish.

 

 

Oh, and in case you want the projectives from CBS Sportsline, here you go

 

PROJECTED LINEUP

1. Brian Roberts 2B

2. Melvin Mora 3B

3. Miguel Tejada SS

4. Sammy Sosa RF

5. Rafael Palmeiro DH

6. Javy Lopez C

7. Jay Gibbons 1B

8. Luis Matos CF

9. Larry Bigbie LF

 

Rotation

1. S. Ponson

2. R. Lopez

3. D. Cabrera

4. B. Chen

5. E. Bedard

[Dr. Tom 0]

Solid review of the team. I'm very leery of Matos in CF, since he never showed he could hit worth a lick save 2003. My concern is that his 2003 season was a fluke, and the .240ish hitter we've seen the other times is the real deal. Considering his CF defense, he only needs to hit .260 to really contribute to the team. His baserunning ability helps, and he has some pop in the bat.

 

I think the bullpen looks decent. BJ Ryan was pretty much unhittable last year, and if he's even close to that level this year, the Orioles will finally have a shutdown closer. Julio walked too many batters and lived too dangerously with the game on the line. He should be OK in a setup role. Kline and Reed can't do any worse than DeJean, whose execution in front of Boog's BBQ I would have fully supported.

 

Maybe those of us in or near the Baltimore area can get to a game this year and see the team in person?

[Guest OSIcon]

Pretty much agree with everything that has been said. The outfield is of course the biggest hole in the offense, but it *is* better than last year which is something.

 

Even if the improvments are very minior, the O's roster should be a little bit better in 2005 than last year which is all I really ask. The starting rotation should be better with having a Ray Miller a full season. The bullpen is much improved. Sosa is an upgrade (even if he is on the downside of his career) to the lineup. Hopefully Gibbons can have a healthy year and return to his 2003 form. The bench is also really solid with Surhoff, Newhan, and Chris Gomez.

 

If nothing else, hopefully they'll have a winning season and be more competitive against the Yankees and Red Sox (though they did play well against the Sox in 2004)....

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

Ok, so a few things:

 

1- Like I said during the AIM fantasy draft thing, I really think that James Baldwin will break into the rotation in the #4/5 spot if he maintains the way hes pitched so far this spring. They can still put Riley/Chen/Bedard in the other spot.

 

2 - The pitchers WHIP last year total was 1.49. Cabrera's was 1.58, Bedard was 1.60. With Cabrera, he had a lot of obvious problems down the stretch that I was under the impression would be worked on.

 

3 - If Matos struggles again, I could see Bigbie moving to center and NEWHAN! moving to left. In fact, I would really love to see that since NEWHAN! was one of my favorite stories/players for the O's last year, but they need to at least give Matos a shot.

 

4 - The bullpen is going to be much improved over last year which will help out a ton. But the main problem was that the Bullpen was overused last year (only the D-Rays bullpen pitched more than the Os 544 innings). With the rotation as it is, they might be in line to be overworked again this year..

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I am delighted to see this spawned some good conversation.

 

Slapnuts...

 

Brian Roberts, finally having the 2nd base job for himself really brought out the hitter in him last year and he has good speed too. Matos has amazing speed and excellent defense but needs to show he's a major league hitter. He did that in 2003, posting an over .300 average but injuries caused him to fall off last year. Same with Jay Gibbons who is projected to hit 8th in this linup and showed 30 home run/100 RBI power 2 years ago, it's just a matter of injuries clearing up. Larry Bigbie is improving every year and is already getting comparisons to a Paul Oneil type who can hit for average, decent power and steal some bases.

 

Matos should improve, although his low walk rate in 2003 indicates that even when healthy, he needs to maintain a high batting average. Bigbie I don't see the fuss about. He hit the league average last year at 26. He is a good player, but I highly doubt he is a star in the making. Gibbons has power, but his OBP was low even when he was productive.

 

As for the middle of the order, Rafael Palmeiro should do better then last year now that the pressures of playing 1st base will be lifted. He went into a LONG power slump last year until we moved him to DH late in the year and all of a sudden he went on a tear. DH will be his primary position this year so he can just concentrate on hittting and not worry about the wear and tear on his knees.

 

Here's a case of where you let your homer-ism overshadow the harsh reality. Palmeiro is now 40 years old, and his isolated power has dropped over 100 points. That is not coming back. I doubt Palmeiro will be the primary DH, and even if he were, the statistics tell a different story. Palmeiro played 20 games as a designated hitter last season, and as a DH he hit .240/.313/.440. That hardly seems like a tear.

 

Hopefully something similar will occur for Javy Lopez, who had a fine season last year, but his power may have suffered from being asked to catch the most games he has in his life. He's asked manager Lee Mazzlli for more rest this year and the working plan is to make Geronimo Gil Rodrigo Lopez's personal catcher, which is a system that worked well for Javy in Atlanta.

 

Lopez had a fluke year with the bat in 2003. His 2004 was excellent, and if he just maintains that, he's one of the best hitting catchers in baseball.

 

he pitching, like you said, is still a big question, but I agree is underrated. Since we replaced the incompetent Mark Wiley with guru Ray Miller last June at pitching coach, the O's pitcher's ERA dropped over a full run and from that point on were the 2nd lowest ERA in the AL. From the All Star Break they had the 4th lowest ERA. Overall they ranked 1st in terms of pitching turnaround from that time.

 

The Orioles' K/BB ratio after the All-Star break was 13th in the league. Their good ERA was due to not allowing many hits, which is mainly luck.

 

The most important overlooked point on the Orioles is the BULLPEN. In the first half of last year we were IN many games even though out starting pitching was not good but the albatross known as Mike Dejean would come in and seem to ruin every game for us. He's gone. In his place, dependable vets Steve Kline and Steve Reed (who posts the best ERA in Coor's Field last year!) Not to mention emerging phenom closer BJ Ryan, who was unhittable by lefties and darn tough on righties. Form phenom closer Jorge Julio moves to setup and they are joined by dependable long men John Stephens and Rick Bauer.

 

I should not have skipped the bullpen. BJ Ryan is the next Billy Wagner.

 

Marvin....

 

1- Like I said during the AIM fantasy draft thing, I really think that James Baldwin will break into the rotation in the #4/5 spot if he maintains the way hes pitched so far this spring. They can still put Riley/Chen/Bedard in the other spot.

 

I remember this five years ago, when Baldwin had a nice first half with the White Sox. I doubt he has learned to pitch at the age of 34. Eight spring training innings consisting of three walks and three strikeouts is hardly convincing.

[mike546 0]

I don't think the Os bullpen can get anyworse. Honestly, anytime the Yankees or Sox faced them last year, you didn't have to worry if you were down earlier. The Os first half bullpen was horrific. The 2nd half of the season was a different story. During the whole stretch when the sox caught up to the Yanks, Ponson REALLY killed us. I think he had a great 2nd half, but I could be wrong.

 

And, are the Os still closing with Julio? They really need to use BJ Ryan there.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

Baldwin gave up 2 HRs today in a loss vs the Dodgers..I guess I talked that right up..

 

And everyone was disapointed with Lopez not hitting all the homers that he did the previous year, but he did hit .316 which was good enough to be in the top 10 in the American League. It would be interesting to see if Mora, Tejada and Lopez can hit over .300 again, and also there are some people that think Bigbie can hit .300 (he hit .303 in 80+ games in 2003).

 

Also, I dont know how much Im sold on BJ Ryan as the closer. In theory, I like him better than Julio...but...hes going to come into games as the closer and not face any left handed hitters which he dominated last year, where as he was ok vs right handed hitters.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Also, I dont know how much Im sold on BJ Ryan as the closer. In theory, I like him better than Julio...but...hes going to come into games as the closer and not face any left handed hitters which he dominated last year, where as he was ok vs right handed hitters.

 

He still struck out righties at a rate better than one per inning. He was ungodly against lefties, but he's effective against righties too.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Maybe those of us in or near the Baltimore area can get to a game this year and see the team in person?

 

I really need to make an effort to see the team in action myself sometime this year.

[Dr. Tom 0]

Well, I'm certainly up for taking in a game with my fellow TSM'ers.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

For what its worth, Cabrera has 9 Ks and 1 BB in 12 IP so far this spring.

[King Kamala 0]

I'm checking out the O's against the Red Sox on April 20th and 21st at Camden Yards. Should be fun slugfests.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

For what its worth, Cabrera has 9 Ks and 1 BB in 12 IP so far this spring.

Two walks actually, although with no home runs allowed. Those are very good marks, and it IS possible that I am wrong, and that Cabrera will become a very good pitcher.

 

Eric Bedard's spring training line also looks encouraging. 12 Ks and 3 BBs in 15 IP. I note that Tony Saunders got battered for two runs on three hits in his appearance. I still hope he can manage a comeback.

[Styles 0]

For what its  worth, Cabrera has 9 Ks and 1 BB in 12 IP so far this spring.

Two walks actually, although with no home runs allowed. Those are very good marks, and it IS possible that I am wrong, and that Cabrera will become a very good pitcher.

 

Eric Bedard's spring training line also looks encouraging. 12 Ks and 3 BBs in 15 IP. I note that Tony Saunders got battered for two runs on three hits in his appearance. I still hope he can manage a comeback.

Saunders has already been assigned to the minor league camp. Cabrera, Bedard, Chen and Dubose have had amazing springs. Out of the final 2, one will get the #5 spot and one will make the team in the bullpen most likely...

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

Os finalized Rotation so far:

 

Lopez

Cabrera

Bedard

Ponson

???

 

??? = Riley or Chen

 

Cabrera as the #2 should be interesting. Ponson could do better as a #4 starter as long as he's not pissed off about it.