Campaign 2008

[Art Sandusky 0]

You must be crazy. The usual Southern tendencies would undoubtedly be balanced out by the black vote. You know it'd be the highest in the history of the country. If it makes sense this way, whitey isn't as adamant about not having a black president as black folk would be excited by the prospect of one, and rightfully so.

[SuperJerk 0]

You must be crazy. The usual Southern tendencies would undoubtedly be balanced out by the black vote. You know it'd be the highest in the history of the country. If it makes sense this way, whitey isn't as adamant about not having a black president as black folk would be excited by the prospect of one, and rightfully so.

I know someone who tried to make the "voter turn-out would cancel out the backlash" argument about Hillary Clinton and female voters.

 

Its far more plausible to apply it to Obama and black voters, of course.

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

Obama might surprise you with his ability to pick up the southern vote. Wait and see. We don't even know if he's running yet. But, I sure as shit hope he's hiring.

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

Difference between women voters and black voters is that women typically already vote at a decent amount, whereas black turnout is always absurdly low. Obama could bring them up to snuff with other demographics and carry them with 90%+, which would be enough to swing the vote, whereas Hillary won't carry 90% of women, and won't drive up turnout by much more than 10%, I'd think.

[snuffbox 0]

This same stuff was said about JFK & Catholicism in 1960. It is possible for Obama to get votes while not being white. One good speech can change alot of things...and now, more than ever, people dont want to be seen as racist. Obviously there are still some people living with that pre-adolescent mindset but it is a smaller number than ever in this country.

 

I would also venture to guess that, along the lines of what Kotz said, the Southern people both black & white living in poverty might be more apt to vote for Obama out of feelings that he might be the one to really help them. And there are plenty of people living in poverty in America that, if motivated to help themselves at the polls, could swing an election. Obama has the potential to carry the Bobby Kennedy vibe that scared the Establishment so much in '68. He can carry all the trusty blue states for a solid base, could have more success in the Midwest/Industrial Belt than a Kerry type, and could do ALOT better than expected in supposed Republican/white strongholds.

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

You also have to account for the fact that Bush is basically campaigning for the Democratic nominee by vetoing popular bills in the 100hrs. I think Bush's threatened veto of the Medicare bill pretty much sealed the 2008 election for the Dems. If he follows through with it, anyway.

[snuffbox 0]

Yes. Bush definitly has the potential to be the best campaigner for the Dems in '08. His current stance of admitting failures in Iraq are making the others in his Party look terrible for following him. And, with the Dems pushing all of these popular social ideas right now, the President is in the tough position where signing them gives the Dems all the glory & if he vetoes them he makes himself and his Party appear to be heartless/eve more out of touch.

 

It's practically become a running joke about how the young & the poor just dont vote. 2006 put a huge dent in that. If Bush continues to flounder, and the New Congress can work and pass some of these things like minimum wage and college tuitions it will look very promising for youth and poor demographics showing up even bigger in '08.

[snuffbox 0]

The one thing that could hurt an Obama candidacy in the South far more than race ever will...Mike Huckabee.

 

I honestly don't see how Hilary would do any better than Obama in the South (or anywhere else, really). Edwards could do well running with his populism ideas & helping the unfortunate. The Biden and Dodd types wont have magical success in the South but, of course, neither one is going anywhere anyway. Iraq and populism will be essential in the South as well as a few other key regions. Obama and Edwards (and possibly Bill Richardson) will do best with these out of the Democrats...Huckabee and Thompson (and possibly Giuliani) on the right.

[SuperJerk 0]

Difference between women voters and black voters is that women typically already vote at a decent amount, whereas black turnout is always absurdly low. Obama could bring them up to snuff with other demographics and carry them with 90%+, which would be enough to swing the vote, whereas Hillary won't carry 90% of women, and won't drive up turnout by much more than 10%, I'd think.

I'm guessing 5% of that 10% would be anti-Hillary. For every woman under 30 who grew up with Hillary as a role-model and can't wait to vote for her, you've probably got a woman over 70 who thinks she's the devil.

[SuperJerk 0]

Even if Obama gets the nod for the dems, there's no way he'd get the southern vote against whatever rebublican he goes against.

Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana could go Democratic.

 

I can actually envision a scenario where a Democrat could win 351 electoral votes.

 

http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/e...calculator.html

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

Yup.

 

The thing is, Obama's the first real candidate with oratory skills that's run in many years. I think Snuffy's allusion to JFK is apt.

[hyperchord24 0]

So who of the rebulbicans have confirmed they plan to run or atleast put together an "exploratory committee" or whatever?

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

Also, if the Republicans just sit back and whine while the Dems pass more bills in the next two years than Repubs did in the last eight, 2008 could be a landslide. They'll pick up seats in the Senate almost no matter what (the class of 2002 is up for re-election, and we all know that many of those Republicans are weaklings that just got in because of 9/11demsareunpatrioticfuckmaxcleland), and I think Bush providing the Dems with an agenda will be very good for them.

 

The only thing I can forsee that will screw this up is if we invade either Iran or NK, considering that'll change the conversation away from social/domestic issues long enough to take the Congress' achievements out of the headlines. Even then, that might not be enough to do it.

[SuperJerk 0]

So who of the rebulbicans have confirmed they plan to run or atleast put together an "exploratory committee" or whatever?

Sam Brownback

Rudy Giuliani

John McCain

Mitt Romney

Tommy Thompson

Jim Gilmore

and various nutjob congressmen no one has ever heard of

[snuffbox 0]

Hey now...Ron Paul might not be at all popular but he's no nutjob.

 

Now Tancredo & Newt, those are guys that Roger Ailes could throw his weight behind.

[Dobbs 3K 0]

I don't understand what qualifies Obama to run for president. He hasn't even finished one term as a Senator, but hey, he's black and handsome, so that will automatically get the media fawning over his potential run for the next three months or so.

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

If you went through the annuls of history, you'd be pretty surprised to find how unqualified many of our Presidents have been before they got into office. There's no real way to "qualify" yourself to be ready for that position.

[Big Ol' Smitty 0]

haha anal history

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

owned

[Big Ol' Smitty 0]

*takes a bow*

[Guest RayCo]

"In a time of universal deceipt, telling the truth has become a revolutionary act"-George Orwell. Learn everything from and live by this mans words.

[SuperJerk 0]

I don't understand what qualifies Obama to run for president. He hasn't even finished one term as a Senator, but hey, he's black and handsome, so that will automatically get the media fawning over his potential run for the next three months or so.

 

By Jan. 20th, 2009, he'll have served 4 years in the U.S. Senate. Before being elected to the Senate, he spent 8 years in the Illinois state legislature. Before that, he spent years running community activist organizations and practicing civil rights law. I understand your concerns, but this isn't some guy who woke up won day and decided to run for office. He's dedicated almost his entire adult life to public service. Yes, there have been men who have been far more qualified to be president get elected, but there have also been men who have been far less qualified to be president get elected.

[snuffbox 0]

Didn't we already go over this months ago? Obama has far more experience in politics than Chet Arthur, Ike Eisenhower, and others. Lincoln went from a losing Senate campain to the Presidency. Etc.

 

Do you want the black folk behind your wall too Invader?

[SuperJerk 0]

To be fair, Dwight Eisenhower didn't need as much experience in politics because he had experience winning a war.

[snuffbox 0]

Right. He certainly fit the Commander in Chief bill better than anyone else save Washington & Grant. But on all other fronts he was a ways behind Obama is already. Grant was another example of limited experience in politics making it to the top, but his story isn't so good for we Obama fans.

[SuperJerk 0]

Go through any list of the top 10 or 15 presidents and you'll find a mixture of level of experience. The same goes for the bottom 10.

 

Compare Thomas Jefferson (one of the most experienced) to Abraham Lincoln (one of the least experienced). Both were great presidents. What they had in common were world-class intellects and a devotion to the best interest of the American people. Of course experience matters, and POTUS is not an entry-level position, but it shouldn't be the only thing that matters.

[SuperJerk 0]

In other news...

 

McCain hopes to mend fences with evangelical leader

 

COLUMBIA, South Carolina (AP) -- Sen. John McCain said Tuesday he hopes to patch things up with conservative Christian leader James Dobson, who recently said he wouldn't support the Republican's presidential bid under any circumstances.

 

In a radio interview with KCBI, a Dallas Christian station, Dobson argued that McCain didn't support traditional marriage values and said he has prayed "we won't get stuck with him." Dobson is founder of Focus on the Family, based in Colorado Springs, Colorado.

 

"I'm obviously disappointed and I'd like to continue and have a dialogue with Dr. Dobson and other members of the community," McCain said Tuesday during a stop in Columbia.

 

McCain has said gay marriage should not be legal but has angered some conservatives with his opposition to a constitutional amendment banning same-sex unions. The Arizona senator said the issue should be left to the states.

 

"I'm happy to say that I've established a dialogue with a number of other leaders," including the Rev. Jerry Falwell, "Purpose Driven Life" author Rick Warren and Dr. Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention.

 

McCain has reached out to conservatives he once crossed. Last May, he spoke at Falwell's Liberty University in Virginia. In 2000, Falwell opposed McCain's campaign for the GOP nomination and supported George W. Bush. At the time, McCain labeled Falwell and others on the right and the left as "agents of intolerance."

 

During his 2000 presidential bid, McCain also criticized Bob Jones University, a Christian fundamentalist college, for its ban on interracial dating.

 

In a GOP debate with Bush, McCain said that given the opportunity to speak at the school as Bush had, he would have said: "Look, what you're doing in this ban on interracial dating is stupid, it's idiotic, and it is incredibly cruel to many people."

 

McCain said last year that he wouldn't turn down an opportunity to speak at Bob Jones.

 

Since 2000, the school has lifted its interracial dating ban.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/01/16/mcc...s.ap/index.html

 

 

Dear Religious Right,

 

What the fuck are you doing to the Republican Party? I make jokes you guys are trying to turn this country into a theocracy, but please stop trying to prove me right. I don't like McCain either, but watching him be forced to kiss the asses of so-called religious leaders for support is not only stomach-churning, but will probably backfire in the general election. Somehow you guys got George W. Bush elected by calling him "compassionate" every ten seconds, but I don't think that trick is going to work twice. Your boy is running this country into the ground, and everyone knows you guys are just a bunch of hypocrites anyways. Do yourselves a favor go away for a couple of years until this Iraq mess is sorted out. The American people have bigger problems than worrying how to outlaw what people do in their bedrooms.

 

Sighed,

 

SuperJerk

 

P.S. Pat Robertson is a pussy.

[Dobbs 3K 0]

Didn't we already go over this months ago? Obama has far more experience in politics than Chet Arthur, Ike Eisenhower, and others. Lincoln went from a losing Senate campain to the Presidency. Etc.

 

Do you want the black folk behind your wall too Invader?

 

I'm no racist. Get that through your thick skull, snuffbox.

 

I understand that Obama has been devoted to public service. I suppose I'd find him more palatable than Hillary Clinton, since she'll say anything to anyone to get elected.

[Guest RayCo]

Of course them folk who take your order love voting.

[Art Sandusky 0]

WHY DOES IT KEEP TALKING