Survivor Panama- Exile Island

[nl5xsk1 0]

Saved from the 2nd to the last thread on page two ... the bump of Survivor: Exile Island.

 

Good episode last night, glad to see the Shaniac finally get kicked off. It was pretty laughable to see how wrong he was about being in control of the game. Him convincing himself that he was the one running things, and then getting blind-sided, was exquisite.

 

Also loved the double-entendres during the RC. "Danielle has her hands on her bag" made me borderline laugh out loud.

 

Lastly: how disappointing is Sally's appearance now that she's cleaned herself up? Add her to the list of Survivors that look MUCH better on the island than they do in RL.

[Lord of The Curry 0]

I figure Terry's plan for next week is to compete in the IC, win it and give the hidden idol to Danielle, then the two of them vote out Cirie.

[naiwf 0]

I can't believe either Aras or Danielle is going to win the million dollars if/when Terry loses ONE immunity challenge. I hate seasons where one player dominates the game and ends up all but handing the payday over to someone who hid under the radar, and/or behind a numbers game.

[Lord of The Curry 0]

I don't think you can say that anybody left in the final four has flown under the radar. Sure, people slept on Cirie for the first while but it became pretty clear recently that she's not playing around for fun.

 

I'll be pissed, however, if Terry doesn't win immunity in the final three challenge and Danielle or Aras pick the other one to go to the final two.

[nl5xsk1 0]

I hate seasons where one player dominates the game and ends up all but handing the payday over to someone who hid under the radar, and/or behind a numbers game.

At this point, though, there aren't any characters that are purely hiding behind a numbers game. The ones that were (Danielle & Cirie, especially) have stood up & made their play by voting off the Shaniac.

 

They might not be dominating the challenges, but they're doing a lot more than just lurking out & quietly going with the flow, the way some previous Survivors have.

[Lord of The Curry 0]

Yeah, nobody here has been a Sandra in terms of lurkage.

[naiwf 0]

I hate seasons where one player dominates the game and ends up all but handing the payday over to someone who hid under the radar, and/or behind a numbers game.

At this point, though, there aren't any characters that are purely hiding behind a numbers game. The ones that were (Danielle & Cirie, especially) have stood up & made their play by voting off the Shaniac.

 

They might not be dominating the challenges, but they're doing a lot more than just lurking out & quietly going with the flow, the way some previous Survivors have.

 

Danielle and Cirie were carried from the initial tribal merge at 14 until the final 4 by a numbers game. They didn't have to do shit for about 30 of the 39 days on the island.

 

I'm sure Terry won't win the F3 immunity and that either Danielle or Aras will stiff him because there's no way either can beat him for the cash. All Terry has to say is "I won 6 (?) straight immunities, had a huge target on my back from the merger, and even with all of that against me, here I am" and the money is his. Aras would deserve the money more, but he burned more bridges. I think Terry, Austin, Sally and Bruce would likely vote for Danielle, while Cirie and Courtney would vote for Aras. If she can convince Shane that Aras did him dirty she's good to go by a 5-2 margin.

[Lord of The Curry 0]

I'm not certain that Terry would vote for Danielle over Aras, 'specially after how Danielle screwed him over the week before with Courtney. If the final two was Danille/Aras, here's how I see the voting going.......

 

Aras- Bruce, Terry, Austin, Sally, Cirie

 

Danielle- Shane, Courtney

[naiwf 0]

I'm not certain that Terry would vote for Danielle over Aras, 'specially after how Danielle screwed him over the week before with Courtney. If the final two was Danille/Aras, here's how I see the voting going.......

 

Aras- Bruce, Terry, Austin, Sally, Cirie

 

Danielle- Shane, Courtney

 

You could be right, but I'm just working off of these ideas . . .

 

Austin and Danielle bonded on Exile Island in their "near death experience". Aras will win the F3 and take Danielle which pretty much guarantees that Terry won't vote for him. Austin and Sally got bounced by Aras, and he seemed to take great joy in eliminating their tribe, so why vote for him? Bruce is a wild card, but from what I gather he liked Danielle more than Aras.

 

I suspect Aras will definitely put his foot in his mouth at the final 2 firing squad, especially when Terry, Shane and/or Courtney baits him with a question about being a liar or backstabber. Aras will be singularly responsible for everyone being eliminated except for Cirie (he would have gotten Bruce if his digestive system hadn't shut down), and she would have voted for him either way. Just a hunch.

[starvenger 0]

I hate seasons where one player dominates the game and ends up all but handing the payday over to someone who hid under the radar, and/or behind a numbers game.

At this point, though, there aren't any characters that are purely hiding behind a numbers game. The ones that were (Danielle & Cirie, especially) have stood up & made their play by voting off the Shaniac.

 

They might not be dominating the challenges, but they're doing a lot more than just lurking out & quietly going with the flow, the way some previous Survivors have.

 

Danielle and Cirie were carried from the initial tribal merge at 14 until the final 4 by a numbers game. They didn't have to do shit for about 30 of the 39 days on the island.

 

I think you're being a wee bit unfair.

 

Cirie was supposed to be the first person voted out. She somehow managed to get Tina voted out.

 

Then, she was told, flat out, that she'd be the second person voted out of the new Casaya tribe after Melinda. Somehow, that translated to Bobby getting voted out after Melinda. Somewhere during that time, she managed to form some bonds with Aras, Danielle and Shane, becoming the unofficial fifth member of the Self-Destructing Alliance.

 

I should also mention that Cirie was a key factor in the Immunity Challenge that gave Casaya the 6-4 advantage heading into the merge. So if she was carried to the Final 7 by a numbers game, she earned it.

 

I say Final 7 because Bruce's health gave everyone but Terry a free pass into the Final 6.

 

Final 6, and this is where Cirie made her big move. Using the bonds formed with Aras and Danielle, she engineered the "3-2-1" vote that Brian tried to do in Guatemala. Buh-bye Courtney

 

Final 5, Shane is still fucking clueless about Cirie's part in the Courtney ouster, and he gets blindsided. He's now happily smoking 3 packs a day again and apparently attending Clippers games. And since they never showed Terry's vote (for Aras), he may still very well believe that Cirie didn't betray him.

 

Cirie has gotten as far as she has because people THINK they've been carrying her. But from Day 3 she's showed an excellent grasp on the mental half of the game, and that's why she's in the Final Four. And that's why, if she makes Final Two, she'll win the million.

[nl5xsk1 0]

I think that Cirie will get 'outed' for her role in the Courtney & Shane eliminations, and that will haunt her in the F2. I think that she'll get to face the jury, and the jury will skewer her and pick against her as a result.

[naiwf 0]

My gut says Cirie's gonna get bounced next. My guess is Aras finally wins the IC because Terry won't want to kill himself to get it. Terry will then whip out the idol after convincing Danielle that her best chance to make the F3 is to vote for Cirie ahead of time. The 2 votes (Aras & Cirie) against Terry won't count, and the 2 votes for Cirie (Terry & Danielle) send her packing.

[Damaramu 0]

To me it seems like if Terry goes to the final 2 the "casaya connection" will get him.

The challenge with the questions about tribe members revealed that none of them like him and think he's untrustworthy.

I know Aras wouldn't vote for him b/c he's a douche.

[Zetterberg is God 0]

Nice little twist at the end tonight. Anyway, I'm hoping that Terry pulls it off. He deserves it not only for his play but his abilility to survive so long with his ass on the line pretty much every week. His argument with Aras tonight was classic.

[starvenger 0]

The challenge with the questions about tribe members revealed that none of them like him and think he's untrustworthy.

I know Aras wouldn't vote for him b/c he's a douche.

Speaking of douches, Terry showed himself to be a bit of one tonight, eh?

 

Cirie dropped her torch right in front of you? Um, no. But sure, so ahead and whine about how she did it intentionally. That'll earn you her vote if it comes down to that.

 

And clarification, my ass. Terry was whining and bitching because he didn't understand the rules, plain and simple.

[nl5xsk1 0]

Yeah, Terry definitely came across as a big prick last night. Between crying that "Aras has been gone a long time, Jeff!" and then bitching about mis-interpreting the rules, and then whining about where Cirie set down her torch ... he just came across as a major prick.

 

I'd be happy if either Danielle or Cirie win the million; and very unhappy if either Terry or Aras do. So, after the opening minutes of Sunday's episode, I'll be down to one person to root for.

[Lord of The Curry 0]

Regardless of whiny behaviour last night, Terry not winning this would be the biggest robbery in Survivor history.

[starvenger 0]

Regardless of whiny behaviour last night, Terry not winning this would be the biggest robbery in Survivor history.

I don't see it that way.

The thing about Terry is that he calls himself an "underdog", but it's hard to truly see him as one. He's had the Immunity Talisman since his first visit to Exile Island, and he won five straight Immunity Challenges. That doesn't make you an underdog - that makes you a Threat. An underdog wouldn't be able to earn their way to the Final Three the way Terry has, and he's really doing himself an injustice by thinking of himself in that way. In fact, he almost comes off as cocky when he tries to be humble, and I think that will turn off the cynical members (read: Casaya) of the jury, so I think his best approach would be to be honest and matter of fact about what he's done during his run on Survivor. But as we've seen, Terry is a very narrow thinker when it comes to strategy, so he could choose the wrong way to talk to the jury, and that could be disastrous for him.

 

As I've mentioned before, I think Cirie has the best odds of winning should she make it to the Final Two. Her game has been based entirely around strategy and talking, so turning into Paula Abdul during final TC is unlikely. That's not to say she's got it in the bag, but I think it's hers to lose should she make it that far - and there's a good chance she won't make it past 8:10pm on Sunday, rendering this paragraph moot.

 

Aras' best chance is against Danielle, and vice versa. You're probably looking at a 4-3 vote.

 

Terry matches up best against Aras, and to take Danielle to the Final Two over Aras could come back to bite him. Both Terry and Aras have a strong physical game, and Terry had dominated that. Strategically, Aras has been the better of the two, but Terry could argue that Aras wasn't the mastermind there. Aras would need to go after Terry's "poor loser" behaviour to have a chance, I think.

 

Terry vs Danielle would be very interesting. We've seen both Shane and Courtney with looks of disgust after Danielle makes comments in TC. BUT we know that they also don't like Terry, so it could be a wash there. Two very important swing votes there, and Terry and Danielle would have to choose their words wisely in order to win those votes.

[nl5xsk1 0]

Regardless of whiny behaviour last night, Terry not winning this would be the biggest robbery in Survivor history.

See, I disagree ... there's more to Survivor than just being the best at challenges. I think it's more important to outwit your opponents than to outplay them, really, and Terry's done a pisspoor job of outwitting anyone. If anything, he's (like starvenger wisely pointed out) come across as cocky, and even confrontational.

 

Winning every challenge on the game is great, and shows physical dominance. But his inability to even be a remotely likable to the other Survivors makes him as unworthy a winner as any of the other three.

[Damaramu 0]

Well I hate Aras and Cirie and like Terry. That's what it boils down to for me. I think Aras is a prick and Cirie is a bitch and I don't like the way they all play gang up on Terry because he ruined their stupid little Casaya plan. I fucking hate it when they get in these groups.

 

Why couldn't Terry give Danielle the immunity idol after the vote?

[starvenger 0]

Well I hate Aras and Cirie and like Terry. That's what it boils down to for me. I think Aras is a prick and Cirie is a bitch and I don't like the way they all play gang up on Terry because he ruined their stupid little Casaya plan. I fucking hate it when they get in these groups.

Need to look again dude. He didn't ruin anything - they just plain don't like him. And if you look, two of the three that bitched the most about Terry are gone. Although Aras seems to be half anger at Terry and half at himself for not beating Terry.

 

Besides which, if the tables were turned La Mina would've done the exact same thing.

 

BTW, I've really yet to see where Cirie is a bitch. The only time I've really seen her be bitchy is after Terry had a hissy fit about her torch and went after her. And I don't think any of the others see her that way either. Noone really seems to "hate" Cirie at this point.

 

Why couldn't Terry give Danielle the immunity idol after the vote?

I don't think it was ever made explicit, but based on Danielle and Terry's actions yesterday I believe that it had to be in your posession before Tribal Council started.

[Damaramu 0]

Well Cirie comes off as a bitch to me and I think I'd probably hate her and Aras in real life so I don't like them and don't want them to win.

And yes La Mina would've done the same thing and I would've hated them for it. I can't stand the big power groups.

[starvenger 0]

Fair enough.

[Hawkius Maximus 0]

Why SHOULDN'T Terry be pissed at them? Why shouldn't at this point be sick of being triple teamed in *EVERYTHING* in the game? Aras was fucking telling Danielle and Cirie to intentionally block Terry so Aras could have his one little moment of glory. I'm pretty sure it's against the rules to KTFO someone, so Aras better be pretty happy it is.

 

I understand that picking off the other tribe is normal (Albeit idiotic in the grand scheme), but Casaya were complete assholes about it from day one. They out right said "Hey, you, we're getting rid of you. Buh bye." one by one. They never tried to hide it, they never tried to be friendly, they never tried to build any type of bridge. They treated La Mina like they were cattle being led to the slaughter.

 

If I had to sit there, and watch my tribe get decimated for no reason other then none of them had any foresight on Casaya, knowing that there was absolutely nothing I could do? I'd be PISSSED.

 

Cirie completely hid in the shadows for 3/4ths of the game, and I don't think she's played all that well since she came out of hidding. If ANYTHING she cost herself the million for doing so. Shane sure as hell won't vote for her. Terry won't vote for her, Courtney won't vote for her. None of the La Mina people will vote for her. She's screwed, all because she decided she had to take out the "final two fodder" as people put it. A daring move? Yes. Smart? Fuck no.

 

Terry has fought his ass off to stay in the game, while most of the other people just sat around. Every time Terry tried to make any sort of alliance, they just laughed at him, even when it would have been smart to do so. Danielle ALONE had about four oppertunities where she could have turned the game, and never had to risk being in the situation she's in. Bruce would have made the final four (Granted if he didn't have his problem), if not higher. None of them had any foresight, nor any imagination. "Ooo, we have the majority! Lets keep going despite the fact that we can't beat this one guy, and I'm on the bottom of the totem pole and next to go! WHEEE!"

 

and about the torch...You dont' fucking just DROP something in the middle of the walking way. Thats common curtesy, regardless if it's night or not. Espcially if it's something like that someone could trip over and possibly break their ankle, or a toe, or something from. That's just being a dick, or unresponsible.

[Damaramu 0]

And I really don't see how anyone has a chance of winning against Terry in the final 2.

If they didn't vote for Terry then they're just vindicative and only voting for the Casaya people.

[starvenger 0]

Why SHOULDN'T Terry be pissed at them? Why shouldn't at this point be sick of being triple teamed in *EVERYTHING* in the game? Aras was fucking telling Danielle and Cirie to intentionally block Terry so Aras could have his one little moment of glory. I'm pretty sure it's against the rules to KTFO someone, so Aras better be pretty happy it is.

From what I saw, Danielle wasn't really helping Aras or hindering Terry. Aras definitely wanted her to, but I noticed that she actually helped Terry more than Aras. As for the shove - Terry shoved first.

 

I understand that picking off the other tribe is normal (Albeit idiotic in the grand scheme), but Casaya were complete assholes about it from day one. They out right said "Hey, you, we're getting rid of you. Buh bye." one by one. They never tried to hide it, they never tried to be friendly, they never tried to build any type of bridge. They treated La Mina like they were cattle being led to the slaughter.

You need to look back a bit. Only one person came right out and said it - Shane, the master of subtlety. If you remember, he also told Cirie that she'd be second out on the new Casaya tribe. The others may have shared Shane's sentiment, but were a wee bit more subtle about it. Then again, the space shuttle launching is more subtle than Shane's approach to voting people out.

 

btw, I agree about Pagonging generally being poor strategy, but the tribal lines were drawn quite tightly this time around, and Terry and whatever La Minas were left would have no problem with dispatching the Casayas they flipped first before turning on each other. It was just that kind of season.

 

If I had to sit there, and watch my tribe get decimated for no reason other then none of them had any foresight on Casaya, knowing that there was absolutely nothing I could do? I'd be PISSSED.

Here's the problem. First thing Terry does in Gitanos is to try and get two people to flip, and offer them 5th and 6th. And he acts like he's doing them a favour. It's kind of insulting, and pretty much sets the tone for the rest of his attempts.

 

Cirie completely hid in the shadows for 3/4ths of the game, and I don't think she's played all that well since she came out of hidding. If ANYTHING she cost herself the million for doing so. Shane sure as hell won't vote for her. Terry won't vote for her, Courtney won't vote for her. None of the La Mina people will vote for her. She's screwed, all because she decided she had to take out the "final two fodder" as people put it. A daring move? Yes. Smart? Fuck no.

I pretty much take everything said post elimination with a grain of salt. Many have said "I'll never vote for x" and changed their mind come final TC. With Cirie, she's come from being first one out to Final Four, so I'm cutting her some slack at this point. She's been "gone for sure" so many times that I think she's got some idea as to how to sawy votes. Assuming she builds fire faster than Danielle, that is.

 

Terry has fought his ass off to stay in the game, while most of the other people just sat around. Every time Terry tried to make any sort of alliance, they just laughed at him, even when it would have been smart to do so. Danielle ALONE had about four oppertunities where she could have turned the game, and never had to risk being in the situation she's in. Bruce would have made the final four (Granted if he didn't have his problem), if not higher. None of them had any foresight, nor any imagination. "Ooo, we have the majority! Lets keep going despite the fact that we can't beat this one guy, and I'm on the bottom of the totem pole and next to go! WHEEE!"

Once again you're not giving Cirie a lot of credit. She saw where she was and made an alliance with Danielle and Aras to get them to the Final Four.

 

I'll be honest though - Bruce's ouster was probably the turning point for everybody's strategy. Lots of "what ifs" had he been able to stay.

 

and about the torch...You dont' fucking just DROP something in the middle of the walking way. Thats common curtesy, regardless if it's night or not. Espcially if it's something like that someone could trip over and possibly break their ankle, or a toe, or something from. That's just being a dick, or unresponsible.

It WAS irresponsible, but Terry presented way too much drama than was warranted.

[naiwf 0]

Cirie is not a power player. She happened to latch onto the right guy, in a group that had the overwhelming majority of players remaining in the game. Had she ended up getting drafted to the La Mina tribe she would have finished 10th or 11th. It's easy to look like you outwitted people when there were about 5 or 6 eliminations that took no thought whatsoever.

[starvenger 0]

And I really don't see how anyone has a chance of winning against Terry in the final 2.

If they didn't vote for Terry then they're just vindicative and only voting for the Casaya people.

The chance comes because Terry was all about the physical gameplay. He never really tried to play the mental side of things, and everything he did try was with a single-mindedness, where the only outcome was him in the final two. Which would be fine in a two-person alliance, but until the thing with Danielle, it never was.

 

Basically, Terry's like the guy in your fantasy league who tries to get Peyton Manning for Alex Smith and Jimmy Smith. If you can show how piss poor his strategic game was - while emphasizing yours of course - you've got a chance.

 

This is why Aras can't win against Terry. He'd try the same trade. Luckily he's got a co-owner (Cirie) who's making the trades and reads the studies the stats to know how to get a good trade.

 

Danielle I still think can convince the Jury, but I thought of something that will get her maybe three votes: wardrobe malfunction.

[starvenger 0]

Cirie is not a power player. She happened to latch onto the right guy, in a group that had the overwhelming majority of players remaining in the game. Had she ended up getting drafted to the La Mina tribe she would have finished 10th or 11th. It's easy to look like you outwitted people when there were about 5 or 6 eliminations that took no thought whatsoever.

I agree with you. She's a strategic thinker. A Power Player would be a Tom Westman or a Brian Hedik - none of those this time around. But she's basically talked her way into the Final Four, so I think that, while not as obvious as Terry's ascent there, it's still impressive.

 

As for getting sent to the "right" team, there's a lot of luck with that. Would Stephanie La Grossa be "America's Sweetheart" had she not been on Ulong? Would someone have killed the annoying singing woman had she not been eliminated right off the bat? Would Misty be Final Four if she went to Casaya and Courtney to La Mina? Lots of "what ifs" when it comes to the division of tribes, man.

[naiwf 0]

I agree with you. She's a strategic thinker. A Power Player would be a Tom Westman or a Brian Hedik - none of those this time around. But she's basically talked her way into the Final Four, so I think that, while not as obvious as Terry's ascent there, it's still impressive.

 

As for getting sent to the "right" team, there's a lot of luck with that. Would Stephanie La Grossa be "America's Sweetheart" had she not been on Ulong? Would someone have killed the annoying singing woman had she not been eliminated right off the bat? Would Misty be Final Four if she went to Casaya and Courtney to La Mina? Lots of "what ifs" when it comes to the division of tribes, man.

 

I think you're forgetting the one major benefit Cirie had. . . she posed absolutely, positively NO threat to anyone physically. In the final 4 she is dangerous because she's the one person who has no problem backstabbing others because she's done nothing all game but ride with the majority. The one thing she deserves credit for is picking up on the tension between Aras, Danielle, Courtney & Shane early on and quickly aligning with the one person who had a level head AND could carry her through to the end. Cirie deserves about as much credit for her play this season as Amber did when Boston Rob handed her the million and the title.

 

Don't get me wrong, Danielle wouldn't deserve the money either, but at least she had to endure some time on Exile Island. The reason Cirie never got sent there is because she always had Aras and her complete and utter lack of physical prowess to save her. I just don't like seeing people who don't outdo (m)any of the others win the prize at the end, hence my hatred of the seasons Sandra won when Rupert did all the work, and when Colby basically pleaded for the jury to hand Tina the money as well. Smooth talking or not, none of the women this season did a damned thing of note except fall out of their bikini tops.