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Lt. Al Giardello

MLB 2006 Predictions

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Toronto will probably do enough damage to both Boston and New York to make themselves a factor in the race, but I don't see them having enough offense to break through.

 

Don't forget about Tampa. They've gotten more and more frisky as their young players have improved, so they should also take some wins away from the rest of the division (I think they were close in the season series with both Boston and New York last year). 90 wins will probably be enough to win the division and I don't see any Eastern team cracking 95+ wins this year.

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I think odds are either the Yankees or Red Sox will miss the playoffs this year. Which one, I'm not sure at the moment. The A.L. is stacked this year and I have a feeling the Wild Card will come out of the West or Central.

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I think odds are either the Yankees or Red Sox will miss the playoffs this year. Which one, I'm not sure at the moment. The A.L. is stacked this year and I have a feeling the Wild Card will come out of the West or Central.

 

Red Sox are the more likely. I legitimately only see them as the third best team in the division at this point. There are a lot of question marks with that team.

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I think odds are either the Yankees or Red Sox will miss the playoffs this year. Which one, I'm not sure at the moment. The A.L. is stacked this year and I have a feeling the Wild Card will come out of the West or Central.

 

Red Sox are the more likely. I legitimately only see them as the third best team in the division at this point. There are a lot of question marks with that team.

 

The Red Sox have question marks, but so does every other team in the division. They've improved the starting pitching, bullpen and infield defense this offseason from a team that won 95 games last year. I'm not sure how you can view them as the third best team in the division.

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The Red Sox have question marks, but so does every other team in the division. They've improved the starting pitching, bullpen and infield defense this offseason from a team that won 95 games last year. I'm not sure how you can view them as the third best team in the division.

 

The Yankees have the best lineup in the division, and adding Damon only improves it. Their bullpen has also been improved, although Farnsworth is a bit of a risk. Their biggest concerns are on the pitching staff with Johnson & Mussina getting up in age, Mussina being an injury-risk and a bunch of one-year wonders (many of whom are also injury-prone) after that. But Boston's rotation isn't much better, with Schilling & Beckett being injury concerns, Clement being pretty reliable, and a weak end of the rotation. Damon's loss hurts too. Toronto has the best pitching and defense in the division, and an offense that isn't as good as either the Yankees or Boston but is much improved over the offensively challenged Jays that still managed to win 80 games a year ago. Assuming Halladay stays healthy, and last year's freak injury shouldn't be a lingering problem, they look better than Boston does. Boston finished second last year and got worse during the off-season, while Toronto potentially improved more than any team in the majors.

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While I agree with most of what you have stated, I don't see how the Sox got worse this offseason. They made a lot of changes, which can lead to uncertainty, but other than a potential dip in runs scored the rest of the team is much better.

 

Heading into spring training, they have 7 potential starters (Schilling, Beckett, Wells, Clement, Wakefield, Arroyo, Papelbon), which will not only provide depth, but allow them to deal for a fourth outfielder or whatever else they feel they might need. Offensively, Youkilis is an upgrade at first, Loretta is at second, SS and CF are a wash. 3B is the only position they downgraded at offensively, but at the expense of improving the infield defense (plus Lowell could bounce back, but I doubt it).

 

They had the worst bullpen in baseball last year but they strengthened it with the acquisitions of Riske and Tavarez, and provided that Foulke can give them something this year, that's a vast overall improvement for the late innings. So once again, show me how this team got worse.

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CF is not a wash, Crisp is not going to get on base as much as Damon did. How is Alex Gonzalez better than Renteria?

 

Unless your saying the improvements at 1st and 2nd wash out SS and CF, which I don't think is true.

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I think the White Sox take a step backwards this year because I believe that the Starting pitchers overachived last year. Garland, Contreras won't do as well this season.

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CF is not a wash, Crisp is not going to get on base as much as Damon did. How is Alex Gonzalez better than Renteria?

 

Unless your saying the improvements at 1st and 2nd wash out SS and CF, which I don't think is true.

 

I agree. Crisp is a fine player, but the Damon loss is a big one and Boston took major hits at SS & 3B. I have no faith in Foulke either, so the bullpen probably still struggles. Boston could finish above Toronto depending on what happens with regards to injuries and underperformance and so forth, but I fail to see how Boston didn't get worse, at least on paper.

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I think the White Sox take a step backwards this year because I believe that the Starting pitchers overachived last year. Garland, Contreras won't do as well this season.

 

Not that I have a lot of respect for him, but Javier Vasquez will be fine. The Sox's starting rotation would consist of Buehrle, Vasquez, Garcia, Garland and Contreras. You also have Brandon McCarthy about to break in the rotation as well, maybe. So that's a good rotation and certainly better than most of the other Central teams'.

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CF is not a wash, Crisp is not going to get on base as much as Damon did. How is Alex Gonzalez better than Renteria?

 

Unless your saying the improvements at 1st and 2nd wash out SS and CF, which I don't think is true.

 

Actual 2005 numbers:

 

Coco Crisp 300/345/465

Johnny Damon 316/366/439

 

Edgar Renteria 276/335/385

Alex Gonzalez 264/319/368

 

The players are already close in their numbers. Factor the move of Crisp and A-Gon from two of the best pitching parks in the majors to a decent hitter's park in Fenway and the numbers are essentially a wash.

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How are people's predictions going?

 

I was 1/2 right about someone flirting with .400 playing on a non-contender (I say Minnesota is still alive).

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Why is everyone blowing the Yankees? They don't have the pitching to go that deep into the playoffs.

 

AL East Winner: New York Yankees

AL Central Winner: Chicago White Sox

AL West Winner: Los Angeles Angels

AL Wild Card Winner: Clevland Indians

 

NL East Winner: New York Mets

NL Central Winner: St. Louis Cardinals

NL West Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers

NL Wild Card Winner: Atlanta Braves

 

AL:

ChiSox over Indians

Angels over Yankees

 

ChiSox over Angels

 

NL:

Cardinals over Braves

Mets over Dodgers

 

Cardinals over Mets

 

WS:

ChiSox over Cardinals

 

Yeah, pretty standard picks, but I see it happening all over again. I hope I am wrong and the BoSox make the playoffs, but I don't see that happening.

Well, I am doing well in the National League, minus the WC. And none of the AL teams are right.

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Like I said earlier in the thread, these are always fun to look back at, considering how off some predictions are. Bless some people who had the Cubs taking the WC.

 

From the first half, I'd have to say the Indians, Brewers and Cubs are the most disappointing teams, while the Tigers, Marlins, and Reds have been the most surprising.

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CanadianChris has the best picks, I believe.

 

American League

East: New York

Central: Chicago

West: Oakland

Wild card: Toronto

 

Division series: Oakland over New York, Chicago over Toronto

ALCS: Chicago over Oakland

 

National League

East: New York (fuck it, the Braves are finally done)

Central: St. Louis

West: San Diego

Wild card: Los Angeles

 

Division series: St. Louis over Los Angeles, New York over San Diego

NLCS: St. Louis over New York

 

World Series: St. Louis over Chicago

 

Pretty good. Mine are ok, but I screwed up the AL West by picking the Angels, but putting the A's in the playoffs. Looking down further on the first page, I said that I didn't get the love for Vlad and the lineup at all, so I guess that means I was thinking Oakland.

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Yeah, I don't think the Brewers are a disappointment. They're hovering around .500, and that's with Ohka and Sheets out. I'm more concerned about the Brewers down the stretch than I am about the Reds.

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