2007 MLB Predictions thread

[geniusMoment 0]

Hamilton making the bigs at all is a pretty stunning development. Personally, I would take it with a grain of salt until he actually makes it to the bigs and produces. Realistically, we're talking about a 25 year old with no professional experience above A ball. He's hit in 14 Spring Training games against the back end of teams. Josh Hamilton is 19 for 39, and yes that is superficially impressive. Willie Bloomquist is 20 for 49. Todd Linden is 20 for 50. Michael Ryan is 17 for 40. Matt Kata is 15 for 31. Maybe this is real talent from Josh Hamilton. But Spring Training numbers are MEANINGLESS. I can't stress that enough.

 

 

I agree with you that Spring training can be deceiving. I remember about 10 years ago when Mike Kelly led the world in every offensive category and then bombed as soon as the season started, and there are countless other stories like this. In general, this is because pitchers are working on things, and if you can hit a fastball your offensive numbers will really be deceiving. Josh Hamilton has a couple of good things going for him:

 

1. His natural talent. I've read countless stories this spring about how Hamilton has the most natural talent any of the scouts have seen, and this is coming from multiple stories, with multiple team's scouts. After playing with him Adam Dunn said he is the best natural player he ever played with.

 

2. He has a very good eye at the plate. He's walked 6 or 7 times, and is very selective.

 

3. He has a short swing, he's only swung and missed 12 times all spring, and has only struck out 5.

 

4. He isn't juicing home runs, he's hitting the ball the other way, and is hitting or fouling off breaking pitches.

 

Now I'm not saying he's going to go up and be an all star or even a good player, he very well could be a spring mirage. But comparing him to Bloomquist, Linden, Ryan and Kata just based off spring numbers isn't looking at the whole story. None of those guys have his ceiling, and sure right now it's only potential, but it's potential they don't have. As in pure talent there isn't anyone, including Alex Gordon or Philip Hughes or Homer Bailey who has more.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Hamilton really is a difficult player to measure. He does have a world of talent obviously. There is little precedent for a player of his caliber in his situation, so you can't really look at comparable players. Personally, I find it hard to believe that he could continually batter opposing pitchers of Major League quality without ever having faced competition remotely at that caliber in his entire career. He could experience some initial success due to his relative anonymity, but as soon as a scouting report accumulated big league pitchers would eat him alive. Hamilton could use time in the minors, but his status as a Rule V draftee means he's ticketed for the bigs if the Reds are to keep him. If they do, they either play him every day and risk losing games as a result, or use him sparingly and risk stunting his development.

 

I would love to see Hamilton succeed. I just hope we don't expect too much from him out of the gate.

[geniusMoment 0]

Hamilton really is a difficult player to measure. He does have a world of talent obviously. There is little precedent for a player of his caliber in his situation, so you can't really look at comparable players. Personally, I find it hard to believe that he could continually batter opposing pitchers of Major League quality without ever having faced competition remotely at that caliber in his entire career. He could experience some initial success due to his relative anonymity, but as soon as a scouting report accumulated big league pitchers would eat him alive. Hamilton could use time in the minors, but his status as a Rule V draftee means he's ticketed for the bigs if the Reds are to keep him. If they do, they either play him every day and risk losing games as a result, or use him sparingly and risk stunting his development.

 

I would love to see Hamilton succeed. I just hope we don't expect too much from him out of the gate.

 

 

I agree with that, it's just that I'm slightly intrigued by what I've seen, more so his swing and eye at the plate than his hit totals. I have serious doubts as to whether he can hit big league pitching, it doesn't seem possible. But he hits like a seasoned pro in spring and he has an eye like Adam Dunn. I'm curious to see what happens when the season begins, and honestly I don't think anyone has any idea on what to expect, or what happens if he has a little success, meaning women and drugs and booze will be more available than ever before.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Comments: I realize that it's tantamount to heresy, but I think that the Yankees have a decent shot of falling out of the playoff picture. The bench and rotation is as bad as it's been in years, and the bullpen doesn't look to have a reliable bridge to Rivera. ARod may bounce back a bit and Cano could improve further, but Mientkiewicz is set to waste away plate appearances at first and almost everybody else is one year removed from their glory years. The Abreu deal saved their season last year, but I can't hardly see a ripoff of that magnitude occurring again. As for the Baltimore/Tampa Bay battle, I give the edge to the Orioles, primarily because Tampa doesn't really have much pitching outside of Kazmir and maybe James Shields.

 

I disagree. These new prospect laden Yankees scare me. I know it seems like heresy among statheads to like Doug Mientkiewicz, but the Yankees saw awful production at first base and he is still an offensive upgrade. That he can play defense as well is gravy. I would like to see someone do a study on the diminishing value of offense. Meaning that once you score 930 runs in a season, exactly how many more do you really need? I believe you can punt offense for defense at one position, and if that position is first base your offense is probably in good shape.

 

Then you have the pitching. This season they added Andy Pettitte and Kei Igawa for depth. Behind them they have Jeff Karstens, Darrell Rasner, and then prospects Phil Hughes and Tyler Clippard (I'm not including Humberto Sanchez due to injury concerns). The bullpen last year of three effective pitchers is bolstered by Chris Britton and Luis Vizcaino. And there are 3-4 more relievers in AAA who can contribute. The Yankees' pitching staff is far deeper than they've been at any point in the last five years. That staff was their Achilles' heel in the past, and now it's fixed.

[The Man in Blak 0]

I disagree. These new prospect laden Yankees scare me. I know it seems like heresy among statheads to like Doug Mientkiewicz, but the Yankees saw awful production at first base and he is still an offensive upgrade.

 

ESPN's stats show that the Yankees got .250/.348/.455 with 29 homers out of 1B last season, which was good for 7th in the AL. Mientkiewicz does have a decent OBP, but do you see him approaching or even topping those numbers?

 

That he can play defense as well is gravy.

 

True, but the defense is at first base, where you can arguably most afford to get away with a mediocre defender. Compared to the average first baseman, how many runs do you see Mientkiewicz's glove saving over the course of the season?

 

I would like to see someone do a study on the diminishing value of offense. Meaning that once you score 930 runs in a season, exactly how many more do you really need? I believe you can punt offense for defense at one position, and if that position is first base your offense is probably in good shape.

 

If you're working from a baseline of 930 runs, then I would agree that you could definitely afford to trade off a bit for extra run protection. But do you see the offense reaching those levels again? For all of the injuries that hit the club last year, there was still an awful lot that went right for them - Damon posted the highest OPS of his career, Jeter posted his second best season ever, Posada had a fantastic year, and Abreu went batshit for 200+ plate appearances after the trade. They'll have a full year of Abreu and ARod may be expected to bounce back, but do you expect the rest of the lineup to maintain its production, without any possibility for injury?

 

Then you have the pitching. This season they added Andy Pettitte and Kei Igawa for depth. Behind them they have Jeff Karstens, Darrell Rasner, and then prospects Phil Hughes and Tyler Clippard (I'm not including Humberto Sanchez due to injury concerns). The bullpen last year of three effective pitchers is bolstered by Chris Britton and Luis Vizcaino. And there are 3-4 more relievers in AAA who can contribute. The Yankees' pitching staff is far deeper than they've been at any point in the last five years. That staff was their Achilles' heel in the past, and now it's fixed.

 

Pettitte didn't exactly set the world on fire for Houston last year; whatever he could potentially get back from a regression of his home run rate (which was, admittedly, a career high) will get offset by the move to the DH league, into a division that can hit. Though Igawa has looked decent in Spring Training, he's still unproven, along with Karstens and Rasner (neither of which have lights-out peripherals or anything).

 

Britton was a nice pickup, but I'm not so high on Vizcaino - I can't see him keeping the four extra K/9 that he added last year, especially moving to the more difficult league. I agree that Hughes and Clippard are definitely looming on the horizon, the former much moreso than the latter, but my skepticism is focusing on this year - how much will Philip Hughes impact the Yankees' shot at the 2007 playoffs?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Let me respond in this manner.

 

Offense: The Yankees will probably not score 930 runs again. 2002-05 they scored 875-900 runs as a team every year and that seems like a reasonable figure to project. And that is just fine. Remember that along with Abreu, they are also looking at a full season of Hideki Matsui. As far as Mientkiewicz goes, first base was not bad because the Yankees placed Jason Giambi there. Mientkiewicz isn't replacing Giambi, he's replacing Andy Phillips. There seems to be some notion that Mientkiewicz is an awful hitter. We're not talking Neifi Perez here. Mientkiewicz hit .283/.359/.411 last year. That's in line with his career totals. And remember that he will be platooned.

 

Defense: It's not what he provides above average, it's what he provides above Giambi. That is a big improvement. I'm not tremendously high on defensive metrics in part because they don't figure in opportunity cost (a non-play not only allows a hit, but a new batter). I don't know if you can put a number on it. What I see is that you have a team that finished first in runs scored but sixth in runs allowed. Improving what side of the ledger will win more ballgames?

 

Pitching: The key is depth. Individuals are not world-beaters on their own. But the Yankees frequently found themselves scraping the bottom of the barrel. Last year included 11 starts from Shawn Chacon and five memorable appearances from Sidney Ponson. If you have depth, you might not get those lights-out performances, but you avoid losing games because your latest fifth starter couldn't cut it. Pennants are won and lost on those type of issues.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

The long awaited projections. Not necessarily who I think will win, but the prohibitive favorites.

 

AL East: Yankees

AL Central: Twins

AL West: Angels

AL wild card: Red Sox

 

NL East: Mets

NL Central: Cardinals

NL West: Dodgers

NL wild card: Phillies

 

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez

AL Cy Young: Johan Santana

AL Rookie of the Year: Alex Gordon

AL Manager of the Year: Mike Scioscia

 

NL MVP: Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young: Carlos Zambrano

NL Rookie of the Year: Chris Young

NL Manager of the Year: Tony LaRussa

[Guest Queen Leelee]

La Russa, hot shot.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Both spellings would pass muster with an editor.

[Guest Queen Leelee]

Judging by what I've seen lately, any of piece of baseball shit would get by editors for most publications.

 

I just like pulling your chain.

[Steve J. Rogers 0]

Made my picks on my blog, they are as follows:

 

From Jabberfest.blogspot.com

 

Time for Opening Day of Major League Baseball 2007 and its time for some

season predictions

 

AL

 

East

 

Yankees

 

I don't love their pitching, but their offense should score right around

1,000 runs. Take the Yankees to win about 95 games.

 

Blue Jays

 

Toronto is ready to make some noise in the AL East, and I am calling for the

Jays to finally break the Yankees-Red Sox 1-2 combo. Put them down for 90

wins.

 

Red Sox

 

Matsuzaka should bring some excitement to the summer in Boston, but too many

question marks, especially with the pen, will cause the Sox to falter from 2

nd for the first time since 1998.

 

Orioles

 

Look for the Orioles to surprise many and finish between 79 and 82

wins. Mazzone

should work his magic with the pitching staff, and the O's will take a step

in the right direction.

 

Devil Rays

 

A real mess of an organization I can't see them winning much more than 60

ball games this year.

 

AL Central

 

White Sox

 

Tigers will be in trouble with out Kenny Rogers, this should be an

opportunity for the White Sox to take back the divisional crown.

 

Tigers

 

The Tigers have enough to stay close, but I'm calling for them to fall just

short and stave off all other contenders and capture back-to-back Wild

Cards.

 

Indians

 

Will be a feisty team down to the wire again, their bullpen is improved, but

it will not be enough to vault them into the postseason.

 

Twins

 

The loss of Liriano for the season will hurt. Santana, Nathan and a solid

offense will not be enough to stay in the race though.

 

Royals

 

The Royals should also be improved this season, look for them to hover

around the .500 mark all season. Sure they are the worst team in the best

division in baseball, but they should be able to get 75-80 wins when all is

said and done.

 

AL West

 

Angels

 

The Angels will retake the division for the third time in five years.

 

Athletics

 

The loss of Zito will hurt, and injuries to the staff will also be hard for

the A's to overcome.

 

Rangers

 

The Rangers offense again is solid, but pitching is again a problem.

 

Mariners

 

The Mariners will again be bringing up the rear in the West.

 

NL East

 

Mets

 

The Mets will repeat this year, win around 95 games again. Sure there are

questions with the staff, but shrewd moves and good performances will be

able to get the job done this year.

 

Phillies

 

This will finally be the year the Phillies break through and get into the

postseason. They are pretty much the same team as the Mets, but the Mets

should have enough to over take them.

 

Braves

 

The Braves should be better this year, but it will not be enough to topple

the Mets or Phillies.

 

Marlins

 

The Fish should also be right around the same as a year ago. Manager change

and the loss of Jason Johnson will hurt them.

 

Nationals

 

Many people are projecting the Nats as a challenge to 120 losses, I don't

think they will be that bad, but it will be a real bad year in DC.

 

NL Central

 

Cardinals

 

Cards will repeat, pretty much by default. They should win more than they

did last year though.

 

Cubs

 

Sweet Lou and Soriano should be able to turn the Cubs fortunes around, but

questions about the staff outside of Zambrano will hurt their chances for

postseason play.

 

Brewers

 

The Brew Crew will be the surprise team in the NL this year, and finish

above .500.

 

Astros

 

Clemens is a wild card, but I don't think The Rocket will be enough, should

he decide to rejoin Houston, to propel them into the top three of the

division this year.

 

Reds

 

Will take a step back this year, won't be horrible though.

 

Pirates

 

Bringing up the rear, and will not be pretty doing it.

 

NL West

 

Dodgers

 

Dodgers will go back to the playoffs, they do have a lot of age on their

team, but it should be enough to get the divisional crown.

 

Padres

 

The Pads will also be good this year, but not enough to topple the Dodgers.

 

Diamondbacks

 

With The Big Unit back, and some good young talent, the DBacks should be

right there in the thick of the NL West and Wild Card races, but just enough

to finish a strong third

 

Rockies

 

Another middle of the road season for the Rockies.

 

Giants

 

This is an old team, the two Barrys aside there is not much to like about

this years G-Men.

 

Postseason

 

Yankees get the revenge of the Tigers while Angels beat the White Sox

 

Angels beat the Yankees in the ALCS

 

Mets beat the Dodgers again in the first round while the Phillies beat the

Cardinals

 

Mets defeat the Phillies in the NLCS

 

Mets win the World Series over the Los Angels California of Anaheim Angels.

Now its time to PLAY BALL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[CanadianChris 0]

Blue Jays

 

Toronto is ready to make some noise in the AL East, and I am calling for the

Jays to finally break the Yankees-Red Sox 1-2 combo. Put them down for 90

wins.

Finally? They did this last year.

[KingPK 0]

Red Sox

 

Matsuzaka should bring some excitement to the summer in Boston, but too many

question marks, especially with the pen, will cause the Sox to falter from 2

nd for the first time since 1998.

 

They finished third last year.

[Steve J. Rogers 0]

Red Sox

 

Matsuzaka should bring some excitement to the summer in Boston, but too many

question marks, especially with the pen, will cause the Sox to falter from 2

nd for the first time since 1998.

 

They finished third last year.

 

Well I'm clearly listening to NYC sports radio and ESPN way too much...

[Spaceman Spiff 0]

Phillies start off slow, pick it up late, and miss the playoffs again. Starting rotation doesn't turn out as great as everyone is predicting, and the bullpen will be terrible. Phillies will score runs, but will display a maddening tendency to not do it in "clutch" (OMG) situations (like the did late in the game today vs. the Braves).