MLB Off-season Thread

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

Eric Gagne is too listy for me. Take him. I feel the same about Brian Roberts, by the way. He's way too listy. Between Palmiero, Tejada, and Roberts, there's clearly more than just one kind of shooting going on in Baltimore.

 

Are you insinuating that B-Rob's 18 HRs in 05 were the result of steroids? He still managed to hit 12 this year you know, which still aint bad for a leadoff hitter that also stole 50 bases and 180 hits.

 

Everyone attributed his home run power/improved hitting to the new contact lenses that he wore, which were like alien technology of some kind, and made it easier to see the ball. Some people may have complained that they were an unfair advantage, too, though I don't recall.

 

He kind of exploded out the gate that season but calmed down and leveled off as the year went on, did he not?

 

[Brett Favre 0]

The Yankees are close to signing LaTroy Hawkins to a one-year contract believed to be worth approximately $3.75 million, sources told FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.

 

Whatever.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

The Yankees are close to signing LaTroy Hawkins to a one-year contract believed to be worth approximately $3.75 million, sources told FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.

 

Whatever.

 

Your favorite translated stats are used below.

 

LaTroy Hawkins WHIP 2005-2006: 1.43

LaTroy Hawkins WHIP 2007: 1.19

 

I think the Yankees might be overvaluing Hawkins after his first good season since 2004.

[Brett Favre 0]

It's only for one year and he'd be replacing Vizcaino. We have a bunch of people in the system (Horne, Ohlendorf, Cox, Robertson, Whelan, Melancon, etc.) that may be able to step in and take the 7th or 8th inning job. After thinking about it it's a decent signing.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

It's only for one year and he'd be replacing Vizcaino. We have a bunch of people in the system (Horne, Ohlendorf, Cox, Robertson, Whelan, Melancon, etc.) that may be able to step in and take the 7th or 8th inning job. After thinking about it it's a decent signing.

 

LaTroy Hawkins, career stats in Yankee Stadium:

 

ERA: 9.64

WHIP: 1.96

Wins: 0

Losses: 5

Saves: 2

 

Just thought you would enjoy that, since Johan Santana would suck in Fenway based on the 15.2 innings he's pitched there in his whole career.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

The problem with those Yankee Stadium stats is that all but four appearances come from 2003 or earlier. You can't honestly bring up Hawkins' failed stint as a starter in the late '90s as proof that he's an ill-suited pitcher for the Yankees.

 

I'd be worried about his strikeout rate myself, but at least he doesn't walk many batters.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

The problem with those Yankee Stadium stats is that all but four appearances come from 2003 or earlier. You can't honestly bring up Hawkins' failed stint as a starter in the late '90s as proof that he's an ill-suited pitcher for the Yankees.

 

I'd be worried about his strikeout rate myself, but at least he doesn't walk many batters.

 

I thought the problem with those Yankee Stadium stats is that 28 IP is not enough to evaluate a baseball player.

[Guest NYankees]

The problem with those Yankee Stadium stats is that all but four appearances come from 2003 or earlier. You can't honestly bring up Hawkins' failed stint as a starter in the late '90s as proof that he's an ill-suited pitcher for the Yankees.

 

I'd be worried about his strikeout rate myself, but at least he doesn't walk many batters.

 

I thought the problem with those Yankee Stadium stats is that 28 IP is not enough to evaluate a baseball player.

 

 

You are also basing those stats of him facing one of the top offenses in baseball every year.

[Brett Favre 0]

Gotta love comparing a guy who was facing one of the best offenses in the league to a guy who would pitch in a park that historically hurts lefties because of a big ass wall in left.

[CanadianChris 0]

Wouldn't Johan have been facing one of the best offences in baseball, then, too?

[Brett Favre 0]

It's not as relevant because Fenway is a hitters ballpark and it's tough on left handed pitchers.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

The problem with those Yankee Stadium stats is that all but four appearances come from 2003 or earlier. You can't honestly bring up Hawkins' failed stint as a starter in the late '90s as proof that he's an ill-suited pitcher for the Yankees.

 

I'd be worried about his strikeout rate myself, but at least he doesn't walk many batters.

 

I thought the problem with those Yankee Stadium stats is that 28 IP is not enough to evaluate a baseball player.

 

 

You are also basing those stats of him facing one of the top offenses in baseball every year.

 

Yeah, thankfully as a Yankee Hawkins wouldn't have to face any top offenses. Boston has a notoriously bad offense, for example.

 

Hawkins career versus Boston: 5.79 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, .286/.345/.486

Hawkins career versus Baltimore: 6.45 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, .320/.362/.522

Hawkins career versus Tampa Bay: 4.43 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, .301/.382/.422

Hawkins career versus Toronto: 4.53 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, .255/.343/.446

[Brett Favre 0]

He pitches alright in Baltimore and is nice in Toronto. Throughout his career he's pitched better at home (last year he had a 2.48 ERA in Colorado). In Baltimore he had a 2.81 ERA when he pitched there. His last year in Chicago he had an ERA under 2 at home. He'll be alright.

[Guest My Pal, the Tortoise]

LaTroy Hawkins is fucking dogshit when under an ounce of pressure. Don't stat me here. Guy's just terrible.

[the max 0]

LaTroy Hawkins is fucking dogshit when under an ounce of pressure. Don't stat me here. Guy's just terrible.

 

http://www.sportsargumentwiki.com/index.ph...=Latroy_hawkins

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

He pitches alright in Baltimore and is nice in Toronto. Throughout his career he's pitched better at home (last year he had a 2.48 ERA in Colorado). In Baltimore he had a 2.81 ERA when he pitched there. His last year in Chicago he had an ERA under 2 at home. He'll be alright.

 

He was very good in 2004 with the Cubs, if that's what you're talking about.

 

His career stats against Toronto are alright. The WHIPs bother me though, which is why I included them (and also because they are a better measure of a pitcher's performance than ERA). Would you like a guy pitching the seventh and eighth innings for you who is going to give up two hits and a walk on average? (Not that that's what Hawkins will be used for, but it's the easiest example.)

[Guest My Pal, the Tortoise]

If he was so great, why did he practically have to run for cover upon his return to Wrigley?

[Brett Favre 0]

I'm not saying he's going to be lights out. I expect one of the kids to step up to take that 7th or 8th inning role. Hawkins will be needed to eat some innings here and there.

 

^ Because Chicagoans are crazy.

[geniusMoment 0]

To give everyone an idea of just what the O's want for Bedard, here is what they asked Cincy for according to Reds beat writer C. Trent Rosecrans:

O's give Bedard

 

O's receive: SP Homer Bailey

OF Jay Bruce

1b Joey Votto

CF Josh Hamilton

 

 

The Reds haven't gotten back to them on that and won't, as the O's say that's all they'll even discuss.

 

Article

 

When the Reds left the winter meetings in Nashville on Thursday, there was a sense that their mission had failed.They had gone to Nashville expressly to get a starting pitcher. The effort focused on getting Erik Bedard.

 

Though Bedard remains a Baltimore Oriole, the Reds have not given up on him.

 

<img style="display: none;" alt="ADVERTISEMENT" border="0" height="7" width="69">

OAS_AD('ArticleFlex_1'); In fact, there are people in the organization confident that the deal will get done. One rated the chances at 75 percent.

 

General manager Wayne Krivsky let trade talks rest Friday. He planned to make calls Saturday night and today.

 

"We're still talking," he said. "There are still some things out there."

 

The Reds will have to give up a lot to get Bedard. Ownership is steadfast that Jay Bruce will not be included in any deal. Though Krivsky says there are no untouchables, there's no deal that will pry Bruce away.If Bruce isn't in the deal, Homer Bailey probably will be. One of the reasons the Reds are willing to part with Bailey and not Bruce is a lot of people in the organization rate Johnny Cueto as highly or more so than Bailey.

 

The Reds don't have an outfielder in the minor leagues in Bruce's class.

 

But it will take more than Bailey to get the deal done. The Reds would have to include someone like Joey Votto or Josh Hamilton as well as a prospect.

 

Should the Reds trade away so much of the future to try to win in 2008?

 

 

The proposed deal on the OH from the trade rumors site is Bedard for Bailey, Cueto and Votto.

 

 

If one of the reasons they are willing to give up Bailey is because everyone in the organization is secretly much higher on Cueto (which they are), why would they trade both?

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

If he was so great, why did he practically have to run for cover upon his return to Wrigley?

 

I don't know. He had a 1.00 WHIP for them in 2004, in 94 innings. That's pretty darn good.

 

In 2005, before he was moved, he had a 1.14 WHIP in 22 innings. Smaller sample size, but still not bad at all.

 

He was terrible for the rest of the year in 2005 with San Francisco (1.51 WHIP in 43 innings) and in 2006 with Baltimore, when he had a 1.47 WHIP in 74.3 innings.

 

Last year with Colorado he was pretty good. He had a 1.19 WHIP in 67.3 innings, which is nowhere near as bad as he had been with San Francisco and Baltimore. He got a really bad reputation around the league for how bad he was with those two teams. It was pretty brutal.

 

So that should give you an idea, by the way, when I talk about his numbers for SF and Baltimore, and the reputation that got him, when I'm also pointing out that he's got WHIPs above 1.70 against a specific team in the AL East. You can think of truly terrible pitching performances that people remember anecdotally, like Mike Maroth's 2003 season with the Tigers when he went 9-21. Even he only had a 1.34 WHIP that year, and he was a laughing stock (mainly because he lost more than 20 games).

 

So, yeah. Keep that in mind.

 

(Note: All statistics above besides wins & losses, for obvious reasons, are translated.)

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Enough with the translated statistics. They are really only marginally useful.

[Precious Roy 0]

I like the Hawkins signing. One year for a guy with a solid track record over the years and a lot of experience. If anything I just like him as a veteran presence in what figures to be a young, revolving door bullpen. We've had success with these types before, and with the way the relief market has blown up he's worth a shot. Better than signing Luis Vizcaino to the 3 or 4 year deal he wants. If he gives us 40-50 good middle innings it's a big plus, and if he doesn't then so be it. Not like we're expecting him to be Tom Gordon.

 

Now we need to get Mike Remlinger and Kent Mercker out of retirement.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Latroy Hawkins only had 29 strikeouts last year in 55 innings of work (sporting a ridiculous .209 BABIP in Colorado). That's insane.

 

But anyways, it's a one year deal for a middle reliever. It's not going to change the balance of power in the East. He'll eat up some low leverage innings or shit the bed and get DFA'd. I don't know why we are even discussing the meaning of the signing. It's for depth and nothing else.

 

Anyone else shocked that Gagne will be getting $10 million plus incentives from the Brewers? That's like 1/7 of their team salary.

 

 

 

 

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

Enough with the translated statistics. They are really only marginally useful.

 

They're the same actual numbers as anybody else, the things people are already familiar with like batting average and WHIP. I don't see what the harm is in providing normalized statistics so you can accurately compare Hawkins in Coors to Hawkins in Wrigley. It would seem to me that NOT doing that is misleading people, which is the very opposite of what I want.

 

In other words, I'll keep using them.

[Guest My Pal, the Tortoise]

I've generally been a numbers guy, but with the arrival of Sobaka and the transformation of Cheech into the FireJoeMorgan.com Syndication Service, I'm ready to lead the stat backlash.

 

I know what I like and I like what I see!

Numbers are really too complex for me!

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

I've generally been a numbers guy, but with the arrival of Sobaka and the transformation of Cheech into the FireJoeMorgan.com Syndication Service, I'm ready to lead the stat backlash.

 

I know what I like and I like what I see!

Numbers are really too complex for me!

 

I suspect it is only this numbers-heavy because it's the off-season, where teams are evaluating players for free agent signings and trades. There's not really any "did you see that play? it was awesome" going on because, well, they're not playing. Unless you want to follow the Dominican Winter League or some such thing...

 

I like statistics. The more advanced (and useful) the merrier. I don't see any reason to deny one's self the ability to better evaluate players. Perhaps part of the reason why it's more obnoxious now than usual is because I'm making it obnoxious to argue with Cena's Writer. He thinks I'm a douchebag. Can you believe that?! Who would conclude such a thing...

 

I apologize if I've statted your brain out. It's just how I like to evaluate baseball players.

[Guest My Pal, the Tortoise]

There's always been a lot of statistics bandied about in the winter, but in five offseasons here at the board, I don't remember so much internal bickering over them.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

There's always been a lot of statistics bandied about in the winter, but in five offseasons here at the board, I don't remember so much internal bickering over them.

 

I bicker in good faith. I don't have any malintent towards anybody, even Cena's Writer. I hope that I haven't led people to feel otherwise.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I should do a separate essay on statistics one of these days. I think the big danger is that there are no end all, be all statistics to judge a player. You can translate WHIP, yes. But you still have the problems that it's limited sample sizes, it's only marginally useful when evaluating future performance, it includes hits which are subject to wide variation, and such. A statistic is only a piece of evidence towards the larger goal of judging a player.

 

I am at the point where I will cite a statistic when necessary. But the audience generally doesn't understand or particularly care about the statistic. They can do the legwork themselves if they need. What's important is the opinion or evaluation provided after the statistics.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

I should do a separate essay on statistics one of these days. I think the big danger is that there are no end all, be all statistics to judge a player. You can translate WHIP, yes. But you still have the problems that it's limited sample sizes, it's only marginally useful when evaluating future performance, it includes hits which are subject to wide variation, and such. A statistic is only a piece of evidence towards the larger goal of judging a player.

 

I am at the point where I will cite a statistic when necessary. But the audience generally doesn't understand or particularly care about the statistic. They can do the legwork themselves if they need. What's important is the opinion or evaluation provided after the statistics.

 

 

That's all fine and well. I only use the translated statistics because it eliminates the argument ABOUT the statistics that, well, that stat is affected by pitching in this park or you can't compare a player in 2003 to a player in 2007, etc.