The College Football Thread 11/6 - 11/10

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

Juice did a good job, but let's not get crazy here. Ohio State should still be in the running, since their only loss is to a good Illinois team as compared to Oregon's loss to Cal and LSU's loss to Kentucky and Oklahoma's loss to Colorado. Ohio State should not fall any further than #4, and could still sneak in the title game.

 

Edit: Ok I forgot about Kansas. If Kansas wins tonight, then I expect Ohio State to get no worse than the #5 spot.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

ESPN2 is showing post-race Nascar bullshit instead of the UVA/Miami game. I hate everything.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

Colt Brennan pops up tonight at 11 PM on ESPN2. Sweet.

 

Until then, come on BC!

[Slayer 0]

After coming home today I saw the score of the K-State game and wondered if I was back in high school again, but no, this is the .500 Cornhusker team led by Bill Callahan, who had in turn given up an equally embarrassing number of points last week, and at this point the win over UT seems like a distant memory as KSU is even fading out of the "we'll take anyone around .500 bowl" contention.

 

Ohio State losing at least dampened that mood, and a KU loss tonight would bring my sporting spirit back up.

 

All is not gloomy in the Slayer household however as Mrs Slayer is ecstatic with VT finally beating Free Shoes U for the first time ever, setting up a potentially exciting showdown against Edwin in a couple weeks

[Mike wanna be 0]

Record alert, Brennan needs 3 TD passes to wipe Ty Detmer out of the record books.

 

And Ohio State hasn't really played anybody "dangerous"; they've got Wisconsin and...that's about it, everybody else has been rather mediocre. I see them going no lower than #7, but that all depends on who wins beneath them and by how much.

[Bored 0]

Might as well start tearing down the Orange Bowl at halftime the way this game is going.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

I've had an erection for the last hour watching this game.

[iggymcfly 0]

Yeah, the Cavaliers are really making a statement. If they can do that on the road, there's no reason they can't go to the Orange Bowl. It seems like somebody really screwy always ends up winning the ACC anyway.

[Hawk 34 0]

Kansas looked as if they were on their way to put away OK State effectively but has since allowed them right back into this game.

[cabbageboy 0]

The odd thing about OSU's schedule is that it is actually listed #6 on www.realtimerpi.com. They really haven't played anyone all that tough, but there's all sorts of sorta decent top 50 teams (Purdue, Penn St., Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan).

 

I wouldn't mind seeing either Missouri or Kansas vs. Oregon as the title game. It would be different at least.

[Maztinho 0]

Record alert, Brennan needs 3 TD passes to wipe Ty Detmer out of the record books.

 

Detmer must HATE Hawaii. He wins the Heisman, and Hawaii knocks BYU out of the ranks of the undefeateds that year and now a Hawaii QB taking his TD record.

[iggymcfly 0]

Well, I can't do the close teams until the Hawaii game's done, but I do have my Top 25 finished:

 

(Previous week's ranking in parenthesis)

1. LSU 9-1 (2)

2. Oregon 8-1 (3)

3. Oklahoma 9-1 (4)

4. Kansas 10-0 (6)

5. Missouri 9-1 (7)

6. West Virginia 8-1 (5)

7. Arizona State 9-1 (8)

8. Ohio State 10-1 (1)

9. USC 8-2 (12)

10. Georgia 8-2 (14)

11. Florida 7-3 (11)

12. Virginia Tech 8-2 (15)

13. Cincinnatti 8-2 (19)

14. Kentucky 7-3 (17)

15. Clemson 8-2 (22)

16. South Florida 8-3 (20)

17. Tennessee 7-3 (24)

18. Boston College 8-2 (9)

19. California 6-4 (16)

20. Illinois 8-3 (NR)

21. Texas 9-2 (21)

22. Auburn 7-4 (10)

23. Michigan 8-3 (18)

24. Connecticut 8-2 (13)

25. Virginia 9-2 (29)

[devo 0]

Still one TD short of the record, Colt Brennan gets hammered by a Bulldog linebacker and appears to be hurt. He's been on the ground for a couple minutes now and has barely moved at all.

[nogoodnick 0]

Oregon State just got hosed on a call. Running back Yvenson Bernard was clearly down 1 yard shy of a touchdown and dropped the ball stretching toward the endzone. A Washington player picks it up and runs it back to the 30 and the refs somehow rule it a fumble. UW got a play off before a review could happen and is driving with under 2 minutes left.

 

Edit: turnover on downs, OSU wins. Fuck em both.

[iggymcfly 0]

Here are my close teams if anyone cares:

 

26. Boise State 9-1

27. Penn State 8-3

28. Hawaii 9-0

29. Wisconsin 8-3

30. BYU 7-2

31. Alabama 6-4

32. Oregon State 6-4

[Guest Vitamin X]

My favorite BCS scenario at the moment would be LSU-Oregon as the title game (Ducks FTW obviously), The winner of the Big XII title game vs. Ohio State in the "We don't get no respect bowl", and then the loser of said game vs. whoever gets a BCS berth between AZ State and USC. So maybe we'd get Kansas-Ohio State and Oklahoma-SC, which should all be pretty good, if not possibly satisfying for Sooner fans.

 

Oh, and Mizzou and WV can go and play each other. I'm not interested in either team.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

Mizzou and WVU couldn't play each other since no conference is allowed more then 2 BCS slots. If Ohio State wins next week, I'd expect the Rose to grab whichever Pac-10 team is eligible, be it Oregon, ASU, or USC.

 

Iggy, on your rankings: did you move Auburn since last night? I thought I glanced at the post and saw them at 15, which seemed absurd. I still think they're slightly overvalued at 22, though--they have the Florida win and they've generally lost to competition that ranges from good (USF, Mississippi State) to very good (Georgia, LSU), but they're still 7-4 and have only one really strong win. They also look ass-terrible against UGA. Cal also seems to be a significant outlier at 19. They've dropped four of five, have one great win, and one good win. I couldn't justify them any higher than an honorary #25 for still being the only team to beat Oregon.

 

Finally--and this may be the Virginia homer in me speaking--I can't understand how you can stick Cincinnati at #13 and have Virginia at #25. I'd probably have both sitting around the 15-17 area. Both have:

 

-lost to inconsistent and average 5-5 teams (Louisville, NC State)

-a loss they'd much rather forget (Pitt--a team UVA beat--and Wyoming, though UVA getting hammered @WYO is still one of the year's worst losses)

-beaten Connecticut

-won 28-23 against an average and inconsistent conference opponent (Rutgers, Georgia Tech)

-a face-stomping blowout over an inconsistent, mid-level BCS opponent (Oregon State, Miami)

 

I give a little more value to the Oregon State beatdown than the Miami beatdown, and obviously Cincy also gets credit for winning @ South Florida. Conversely, Virginia gets more credit for having a longer list of mid-level triumphs (Wake, Maryland), not playing a I-AA team, and only playing 2 non-BCS teams vs. Cincy's total of 4. I'm not sure there's 12 spots of separation in there, particularly with so many 3 and 4-loss teams sitting between them.

 

You can tell it's a special season at UVA when I'm devoting this much brainpower to one dude's CFB rankings of overachieving 2-loss squads. Huzzah.

[cabbageboy 0]

How can 3 teams from the Big 12 get to the BCS? I can see Oklahoma and the Kansas/Mizzou winner, but if Kansas loses to Missouri they are basically screwed and won't make any sort of BCS game even at 11-1. I still want to see Oregon vs. Kansas though, it would be something wildly different and if there's ever a sport that needed a change it is college football.

[Bored 0]

There's a provision that no conference can have more than two teams in BCS bowls.

[iggymcfly 0]

Iggy, on your rankings: did you move Auburn since last night? I thought I glanced at the post and saw them at 15, which seemed absurd. I still think they're slightly overvalued at 22, though--they have the Florida win and they've generally lost to competition that ranges from good (USF, Mississippi State) to very good (Georgia, LSU), but they're still 7-4 and have only one really strong win. They also look ass-terrible against UGA. Cal also seems to be a significant outlier at 19. They've dropped four of five, have one great win, and one good win. I couldn't justify them any higher than an honorary #25 for still being the only team to beat Oregon.

 

Finally--and this may be the Virginia homer in me speaking--I can't understand how you can stick Cincinnati at #13 and have Virginia at #25. I'd probably have both sitting around the 15-17 area. Both have:

 

-lost to inconsistent and average 5-5 teams (Louisville, NC State)

-a loss they'd much rather forget (Pitt--a team UVA beat--and Wyoming, though UVA getting hammered @WYO is still one of the year's worst losses)

-beaten Connecticut

-won 28-23 against an average and inconsistent conference opponent (Rutgers, Georgia Tech)

-a face-stomping blowout over an inconsistent, mid-level BCS opponent (Oregon State, Miami)

 

I give a little more value to the Oregon State beatdown than the Miami beatdown, and obviously Cincy also gets credit for winning @ South Florida. Conversely, Virginia gets more credit for having a longer list of mid-level triumphs (Wake, Maryland), not playing a I-AA team, and only playing 2 non-BCS teams vs. Cincy's total of 4. I'm not sure there's 12 spots of separation in there, particularly with so many 3 and 4-loss teams sitting between them.

 

You can tell it's a special season at UVA when I'm devoting this much brainpower to one dude's CFB rankings of overachieving 2-loss squads. Huzzah.

 

First, no I didn't change the rankings. I had Auburn at 22 right away. And Cal I think is absolutely deserving of the #19 spot. They're 1-2 vs. the Top Ten, 2-3 vs. the Top 32, and even the bad loss (at UCLA) isn't very bad. Compare them to Michigan who's 0-1 vs. the Top Ten (losing by 32 at home to the same team Cal beat on the road), 2-2 vs. the Top 32, and has a much worse bad loss (to App State). Texas is 0-1 vs. the Top Ten and also 0-1 vs. the Top 32 with their best win coming over Texas Tech at home (a team worse than Oregon State) and a bad loss that's much worse (by 20 points at home to 5-5 Kansas State). I think if you took the time to break down the resumes of the teams close to Cal, you'd see the Bears are getting a bad rap right now due to their schedule.

 

As for Virginia and Cincinnatti, I think it's pretty clear who's better. Let's look at the games against teams that I have ranked:

 

Virginia

def. #24 UConn 17-16 (H)

 

Cincinnatti

def. #32 Oregon State 34-3 (H)

def. #16 South Florida 38-33 (A)

def. #24 UConn 27-3 (H)

 

Do you see a little discrepancy there? Cincinnatti's wins are way way better. Virginia's schedule is actually really weak to this point, as in addition to playing in the weakest BCS conference in the country, they've also managed to miss all 4 of the best teams from that conference (VT, Clemson, BC, FSU). Also, comparing a win over Oregon State who's ranked #32 both by me and by Sagarin to a Miami who Sagarin puts at #71 as the 2nd worst team in the ACC is a little bit silly. I'm not saying the Cavs should get no credit for the Miami win, they played a great complete game for the first time this year, and I moved them up ahead of Boise State and Penn State who they were behind last week, but Miami's still a pretty bad team.

 

On the losses, yes Cincy lost to a pretty bad Pitt team that Virginia beat, but that still can't compare to losing to Wyoming. They're 2-4 in MWC play this year and are coming off a 50-0 loss to Utah. They're just a really, really bad team. And while NC State's playing a little better lately, they're still worse than Louisville. (Actually lost to them by 19 points at home if you want to use H2H.) So basically, Cincy has much better wins, slightly better losses, and that doesn't even begin to punish Virginia for all the close games they've played this year with bad teams. (Remember Middle Tennessee State?) I really don't think they're close at all.

 

Also, the Sagarin predictor which just looks at score and not wins and losses and is generally considered to be the best computer ranking for future results has Cincinnatti ranked #9 and Virginia ranked #48. It basically says Cincy should be favored by 13 points over UVA on a neutral field. Just thought that was an interesting tidbit.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

Thought one: I don't punish teams for close wins at all when ranking teams, which I guess is a difference between how we each qualify teams. I don't care if it's by 4 TDs or 4 points; at a certain point, a win is a win. Conversely, I will slightly reward a team for throttling someone if they're playing at an overall higher level. Kind of like an A vs. an A+, if you will; margin of victory is pretty meaningless to me.

 

Thought two: I think your methodologies rely a little too heavily on 1) strength of schedule, and 2) the Sagarin rankings and similar statistical predictors. On the latter: I don't think anyone who's actually watched both Cincy and Virginia games these season would favor Cincy by 13 points. In fact, I think you'd probably be looking at something around the standard "even teams" 3-point spread in favor of the home team, with a slight edge to Cincy on account of their great turnover ratio.

 

Similarly, your strength of schedule evaluation looks only at the top and the bottom, ignoring most of the middling wins (which I tend to see as a mark of consistency in teams), and you weigh losses a lot lower than I do. By virtue of their wins over Oregon and Tennessee, Cal has to be one of the best 4-loss teams in the country, but to place them above any 2-loss BCS team at this stage of the season significantly devalues the merits of actually winning games. It seems like you're using an odd hybrid of both ranking on resumes and how "good" a team plays/has played at its high points. This works in some cases, but I think it's also partly why you really, really overestimated both Georgia Tech and UCLA at earlier points in this season. CFN does something very similar.

[Bored 0]

BCS Rankings

 

1. LSU

2. Oregon

3. Kansas

4. Oklahoma

5. Missouri

6. West Virginia

7. Ohio State

8. Arizona State

9. Georgia

10. Virginia Tech

11. USC

12. Florida

13. Texas

14. Virginia

15. Clemson

16. Hawaii

17. Boston College

18. Boise State

19. Illinois

20. Tennessee

21. Michigan

22. Cincinnati

23. Kentucky

24. Connecticut

25. Wisconsin

[iggymcfly 0]

More of the tier system. I'm thinking everyone on the board has the concept by now, but basically, it assesses the contenders' chances of making the BCS title game if they win out.

 

Tier I: The Frontrunners

These are the teams that just need to win the rest of their games to go to the championship. Everyone else is looking for help, but these two largely control their own destinies.

 

Kansas (10-0): With Ohio State losing last week, Kansas is all but guaranteed to make the title game if they win out.

Missouri and Oklahoma would both have to lose before playing Kansas to potentially cost them a spot, and even then, they'd be about 80-90% to make it. It's win and you're in at this point for the Jayhawks.

 

LSU (9-1): Like Kansas, LSU just has to worry about their own business from here on out. They've got a huge lead over Oregon in both the polls and the computers and unless they do something to really hurt themselves (like go to OT with Ole Miss or win a game on an objectively horrible call), they're as good as guaranteed a title game berth at 12-1.

 

 

Tier II: The Contenders

This is the group of teams (OK, only one team this week) that is still in the thick of the race. As long as they win out, they're favored to reach the title game.

 

Oregon (8-1): Oregon was actually the biggest winner with Ohio State losing last week as no one really expects Kansas to go 13-0. They've got virtually no shot to get in over a 12-1 LSU or a 13-0 Kansas, but they're still about 75% to go to New Orleans if they win out.

 

 

Tier III: Still in the race

These are the teams that are less than 50/50 to make the championship if they win out, but still have a very reasonable chance to qualify.

 

Oklahoma (9-1): Oklahoma can obviously get in championship position if they win the Big XII and get a loss from LSU or Oregon, but the question is, what happens if they go 12-1 and are battling with Oregon for the final spot? A win over previously undefeated Kansas would be very impressive to the computers and would probably bring them about even with the Ducks. The loss to Colorado would still keep them from becoming any kind of overwhelming favorite there though. As such, they'd need to beat Kansas by a big enough margin to get a real buzz going nationally that could move them up in the polls (probably a 17 point victory minimum). If Missouri's the title game opponent instead of Kansas, Oklahoma has pretty much no shot to pass Oregon since they'll stay behind Oregon in the computer rankings.

 

Missouri (9-1): Theoretically, Missouri should have a great shot to make a leap if they win out. Not only would they get a huge quality win over Kansas, they'd be able to avenge their only loss of the season at a neutral site. Still though, with all the hype Oregon's been getting this season and the fact that Missouri hasn't played a nationally televised game all season, it would be tough to really get the voters psyched about a Missouri/LSU matchup. They'd need to win with "style", preferably behind some big plays by Chase Daniel that could give him the "exciting Heisman contender" hype that Dixon enjoys currently.

 

West Virginia (8-1): West Virginia's got a clearer picture than most. They need 2 out of 3 of Oregon, LSU, and the eventual Big XII champion to pick up a loss while also getting by Cincinnatti and UConn. While it's unlikely, it's far from impossible. Even if all that happens, they're still not guaranteed anything however, as Ohio State or Arizona State could catch them from behind if either has a particularly impressive win.

 

 

Tier IV: The Longshots

These teams while still technically in the race are going to need every single break to go their way. There will have to be some crazy upsets for one of these teams to actually make it to New Orleans.

 

Ohio State (10-1): From frontrunner to back of the pack in one week. Ohio State does appear to have a pretty sizable lead on Arizona State, but will have difficulty passing West Virginia unless the Mountaineers pick up another loss. Even if they blast the Wolverines, they're going to need 4 teams above them to lose to have any shot.

 

Arizona State (9-1): For now, Arizona State has to focus on what they control. Which is beating USC in as impressive of a fashion as possible. Win impressively enough against the Trojans and they've got a great shot to pass Ohio State and/or West Virginia. After that, all they can do is see how the chips fall and hope that there are upsets among the top teams.

 

 

Eliminated last week

Well, we had 9 teams last week and now we're down to 8, so that means someone has blown any shot whatsoever at a championship.

 

Boston College (8-2): The Eagles were barely hanging on by a thread before and with the loss to Maryland, the last of their hopes were snuffed out.